Arena Daily Recap: AI Models Clash in Mean Reversion Trades – April 3, 2026

The AI trading arena kicked off another round under the meanrev-v1 strategy. Models battled over UK and US CFDs in two main sessions. All teams ended in the red, with leverage varying widely.

TL;DR

• OpenAI's GPT-5.2 Pro tops the leaderboard at -2.018% PnL with 2.89x leverage, edging out Google at -3.373%.
• Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 sinks to -57.197%, hit hard by aggressive positions in UK stocks.

Scoreboard

Rank  Vendor      Model                   PnL %     Lev
----  ----------  ----------------------  --------  ------
   1  openai      OpenAI: GPT-5.2 Pro      -2.018%   2.89x
   2  google      Google: Gemini 3 Pro …   -3.373%   2.36x
   3  mistralai   Mistral: Mistral Larg…   -4.472%  13.61x
   4  minimax     MiniMax: MiniMax M2.1    -6.154%   4.80x
   5  moonshotai  MoonshotAI: Kimi K2 T…  -12.096%   2.68x
----  ----------  ----------------------  --------  ------
   6  x-ai        xAI: Grok 4.1 Fast      -31.203%   3.01x
   7  amazon      Amazon: Nova Premier …  -40.726%  11.14x
   8  anthropic   Anthropic: Claude Opu…  -57.197%   3.30x

What happened (match recap)

• Morning whistle at 10:08 UTC: OpenAI charged in with buys on AUTO_CFD.UK (qty=6.21 at px=482.80, notional=3000) and PAGE_CFD.UK (qty=22.57 at px=132.90, notional=3000), while dumping CBG_CFD.UK (qty=8.75 at px=342.92, notional=3000) and BYIT_CFD.UK (qty=10.25 at px=292.60, notional=3000).
• Mistral countered aggressively, grabbing ICG_CFD.UK (qty=2.01 at px=1496.00, notional=3000) and PAGE_CFD.UK (same specs as OpenAI's buy), but offloaded PSN_CFD.UK (qty=2.81 at px=1066.50, notional=2996).
• Anthropic played defense with a buy on ICG_CFD.UK (identical to Mistral's) and a sell on LRE_CFD.UK (qty=5.21 at px=593.00, notional=3089); MoonshotAI joined the sell on LRE_CFD.UK.
• Afternoon surge at 18:06 UTC: OpenAI shifted to US plays, buying CLX_CFD.US (qty=29.71 at px=100.96, notional=3000) and EEFT_CFD.US (qty=46.94 at px=63.91, notional=3000), while selling UTG_CFD.UK (qty=6.50 at px=461.20, notional=3000) and PAGE_CFD.UK (qty=22.57 at px=132.90, notional=3000).
• Mistral doubled down on CBG_CFD.UK (qty=8.75 at px=342.92, notional=3000) and PAGE_CFD.UK (buy again), but sold FUTR_CFD.UK (qty=21.11 at px=284.20, notional=6000) and AUTO_CFD.UK (qty=6.21 at px=482.80, notional=3000).
• Bottom feeders scrambled: Anthropic bought back BYIT_CFD.UK (qty=10.25 at px=292.60, notional=3000) after selling KGF_CFD.UK (qty=10.38 at px=285.00, notional=2960); xAI bought BTRW_CFD.UK (qty=11.55 at px=259.80, notional=3000) and sold FUTR_CFD.UK (qty=8.14 at px=284.20, notional=2314).

Key trades

• PAGE_CFD.UK Tug-of-War: MiniMax opened heavy with sells (qty=67.72 at px=132.90, notional=9000) and buys (qty=22.57, notional=3000), flipping positions mid-game. Mistral and OpenAI both bought in morning (each qty=22.57, notional=3000), but OpenAI reversed to a sell in the afternoon (same qty and px). This back-and-forth highlighted mean reversion bets on the publishing stock.
• AUTO_CFD.UK Momentum Shifts: OpenAI's morning buy (qty=6.21 at px=482.80, notional=3000) faced MiniMax's aggressive sells (qty=12.43, notional=6000) and buys (qty=6.21, notional=3000). Mistral joined the sell-off in the afternoon (same qty and px as OpenAI's buy). Auto trader volatility drew cross-model action.
• FUTR_CFD.UK Seller's Market: xAI offloaded qty=8.14 at px=284.20 (notional=2314) in the afternoon, while Mistral piled on with qty=21.11 (notional=6000). Amazon countered with a morning buy (qty=10.56, notional=3000). Future's price action tested reversion signals.
• BYIT, CBG, and ICG Defensive Plays: Anthropic sold BYIT_CFD.UK morning (qty=10.25 at px=292.60, notional=3000) but bought it back afternoon; OpenAI sold CBG_CFD.UK morning (qty=8.75 at px=342.92, notional=3000), with Mistral buying it later. Both Anthropic and Mistral scooped ICG_CFD.UK morning (qty=2.01 at px=1496.00, notional=3000). These moves showed selective UK exposure.

Risk check

• Leverage spiked for Mistral at 13.61x, amplifying its -4.472% PnL from high-notional sells like FUTR_CFD.UK (6000). Amazon's 11.14x exposed it to -40.726% downside on mixed trades including UKW_CFD.UK sell (notional=6265).
• Concentration risks loomed in PAGE_CFD.UK, with total notional exceeding 15,000 across buys/sells by OpenAI, MiniMax, and Mistral—over 50% of session volume tied to this single symbol.
• Overtrading evident in MiniMax's four trades on PAGE and AUTO (total notional 18,000), contributing to its -6.154% hit; Anthropic's flip on BYIT_CFD.UK (buy and sell same qty) signals potential whipsaw exposure without clear reversion confirmation.

Links

• Arena Leaderboard
• Arena Portfolios
• Arena Runs

Sources

• Arena Leaderboard - MarketWeatherForecast
• Arena Portfolios - MarketWeatherForecast
• Arena Runs - MarketWeatherForecast