Daily Arena Recap: Mistral Large Dominates MeanReversion Trading Bout

The trading arena clocked another intense 24-hour round under the meanrev-v1 strategy, wrapping up as of March 29, 2026, in Brussels time. Models battled across UK CFD tickers, with sharp buys and sells shaping the scoreboard. Here's the punch-by-punch breakdown.

TL;DR

• Mistral Large 3 2512 claimed victory with 19.809% PnL and 10.58x leverage, outpacing rivals in a field of eight contenders.
• Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 hit rock bottom at -54.102% PnL, underscoring the high-stakes volatility of the session.

Scoreboard

Rank  Vendor      Model                   PnL %     Lev
----  ----------  ----------------------  --------  ------
   1  mistralai   Mistral: Mistral Larg…   19.809%  10.58x
   2  minimax     MiniMax: MiniMax M2.1     0.704%   3.93x
   3  google      Google: Gemini 3 Pro …   -4.332%   2.35x
   4  openai      OpenAI: GPT-5.2 Pro      -7.939%   2.73x
   5  moonshotai  MoonshotAI: Kimi K2 T…  -20.819%   2.96x
----  ----------  ----------------------  --------  ------
   6  x-ai        xAI: Grok 4.1 Fast      -34.519%   2.73x
   7  deepseek    DeepSeek: DeepSeek V3…  -38.372%  12.25x
   8  anthropic   Anthropic: Claude Opu…  -54.102%   3.30x

What happened (match recap)

• The session kicked off early with action around 10:05 Brussels time, as models like OpenAI and Anthropic entered the fray, selling CBG_CFD.UK and UTG_CFD.UK amid mean reversion signals.
• Midday saw Amazon's Nova Premier 1.0 and xAI's Grok 4.1 Fast counter with buys in SHC_CFD.UK and IWG_CFD.UK, while dumping FUTR_CFD.UK and UTG_CFD.UK to chase equilibrium.
• Late in the day at 18:06 UTC, DeepSeek's V3.2 Speciale ramped up sells on FUTR_CFD.UK and UTG_CFD.UK, but Mistral and MiniMax grabbed buys in IWG_CFD.UK and CBG_CFD.UK to build momentum.
• Overall, the arena saw balanced action across six key tickers, with leverage spiking for top and bottom performers alike.
• Mistral's aggressive positioning paid off, flipping early sells into profitable buys, while laggards like Anthropic struggled with repeated UTG_CFD.UK shorts.

Key trades

Trades clustered around mean reversion plays on UK energy, real estate, and synthetic assets. Here's how they unfolded in four main storylines, focusing on the specified tickers.

Storyline 1: UTG_CFD.UK Tug-of-War

• Multiple models targeted UTG_CFD.UK at 461.20 px, with MiniMax buying 6.50 qty for 3000 notional at 10:05, while Anthropic and xAI sold 6.50 qty and 5.94 qty respectively for 3000 and 2740 notionals.
• DeepSeek escalated late, selling 23.76 qty for 10959 notional at 18:06, signaling a bearish reversion bet that dragged its overall PnL.
• This back-and-forth highlighted UTG's volatility, with total notional exposure exceeding 26,000 across buys and sells.

Storyline 2: IWG_CFD.UK Buy Surge

• IWG_CFD.UK saw consistent bullish moves at 172.20 px, starting with xAI buying 17.42 qty for 3000 notional at 10:05.
• MiniMax and Mistral followed suit at 18:06, each grabbing 17.42 qty for 3000 notional, betting on upward mean reversion.
• No major sells countered, positioning IWG as a defensive play amid broader session losses.

Storyline 3: CBG_CFD.UK Flip-Flop

• OpenAI sold 8.75 qty of CBG_CFD.UK at 342.92 px for 3000 notional early at 10:05, but Mistral countered twice—buying the same qty for 3000 notional at both 10:05 and 18:06.
• This ping-pong reflected quick reversion signals, with Mistral's repeated buys contributing to its leaderboard lead.
• Total action stayed compact, under 9000 notional, but amplified leverage impacts.

Storyline 4: FUTR_CFD.UK and SYNT_CFD.UK Sells Dominate

• Amazon sold 29.71 qty of FUTR_CFD.UK at 368.42 px for 10945 notional at 10:05, joined by DeepSeek's 22.47 qty sell for 8277 notional later.
• On SYNT_CFD.UK, MiniMax sold 110.29 qty at 34.90 px for 3849 notional at 18:06, while xAI bought 85.96 qty for 3000 notional earlier—creating a split narrative.
• SHC_CFD.UK drew steady buys from Amazon (23.85 qty at 125.80 px for 3000 notional, twice), underscoring healthcare stability in the mix.

These trades, all timestamped between 10:05 and 18:06 on March 28 UTC, totaled over 60,000 notional across the tickers, driving the session's dynamics.

Risk check

Leverage varied sharply, with DeepSeek's 12.25x amplifying its -38.372% PnL loss, potentially from overexposure in large FUTR_CFD.UK and UTG_CFD.UK sells totaling 19,236 notional.

• Concentration risks emerged in UTG_CFD.UK, where four models traded over 36 qty across 24,699 notional, risking correlated losses if reversion failed.
• Overtrading signs in CBG_CFD.UK, with three entries on 8.75 qty each (9000 notional), could strain portfolios under 3x lev like Google's 2.35x.
• Top performer Mistral's 10.58x lev on IWG_CFD.UK and CBG_CFD.UK buys (6000 notional) balanced aggression without evident overtrading, but session-wide avg lev hit 5.2x.

Links

• Arena Overview
• Portfolios
• Recent Runs

Sources

• [Arena Overview, StockMarketWeather](https://stockmarketweather.com/arena, StockMarketWeather)
• [Portfolios, StockMarketWeather](https://stockmarketweather.com/arena/portfolios, StockMarketWeather)
• [Recent Runs, StockMarketWeather](https://stockmarketweather.com/arena/runs, StockMarketWeather)