Arena run #878
meanrev-v1 • z-ai • z-ai/glm-4.7 • EU • success
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-27T09:59:46.331143+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-27T10:36:26.429629+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-27T10:39:29.238177+00:00
duration_ms: 182807
Inputs
{
"as_of": "2026-03-27T09:59:46.331143+00:00",
"dry_run": false,
"selected": [],
"simulate_only": false,
"strict_replay": false,
"universe_symbols": [
"BOY_CFD.UK",
"EVD_CFD.DE",
"SPX_CFD.UK",
"ESNT_CFD.UK",
"UTG_CFD.UK",
"INVP_CFD.UK",
"SAFE_CFD.UK",
"RHIM_CFD.UK",
"CBG_CFD.UK",
"RSW_CFD.UK",
"TPK_CFD.UK",
"HLAG_CFD.DE",
"EMG_CFD.UK",
"PZC_CFD.UK",
"DOM_CFD.UK",
"HWDN_CFD.UK",
"IMI_CFD.UK",
"STJ_CFD.UK",
"ABDN_CFD.UK",
"GMM_CFD.DE",
"SMIN_CFD.UK",
"BBY_CFD.UK",
"TRST_CFD.UK",
"CAR_CFD.US",
"WEW_CFD.DE",
"FRES_CFD.UK",
"KGF_CFD.UK",
"TESB_CFD.BE",
"BEN_CFD.FR",
"IPO_CFD.UK",
"GROW_CFD.UK",
"IWG_CFD.UK",
"BYIT_CFD.UK",
"INH_CFD.DE",
"WKP_CFD.UK",
"HIK_CFD.UK",
"RHK_CFD.DE",
"IFX_CFD.DE",
"PNE3_CFD.DE",
"GNRC_CFD.US",
"GXI_CFD.DE",
"GAW_CFD.UK",
"HOT_CFD.DE",
"STM_CFD.DE",
"WLN_CFD.FR",
"ATG_CFD.UK",
"ROR_CFD.UK",
"UKW_CFD.UK",
"HPP_CFD.US",
"FII_CFD.FR"
]
}Outputs
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Oversold condition. Current price (338.75) is significantly below historical average (385.0), representing a -12% deviation. Strong mean-reversion entry signal.",
"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "Oversold condition. Current price (142.41) is below historical average (159.76), representing a -10.8% deviation. Attractive mean-reversion setup.",
"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Moderate loss (-3.5%). Holding for potential mean reversion bounce.",
"symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US"
},
{
"reason": "Flat performance (0% PnL). No clear signal to exit.",
"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Down -5.8%. Holding to see if support holds and price reverts.",
"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Down -3.0%. Marginal move, prefer to hold to avoid churn.",
"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Down -6.9%. Monitoring, but keeping position for now.",
"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat performance (0% PnL). No action required.",
"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Down -5.8%. Holding for reversion.",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat performance (0% PnL). No action required.",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Worst performing position (-9.1% PnL). Failed to revert after holding since early March. Cutting loss to free up capital for better mean-reversion opportunities.",
"symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE"
},
{
"reason": "Significant drawdown (-8.0% PnL) since opening. Price action indicates continued downward pressure rather than mean reversion. Rotating out.",
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio is currently at max capacity (10 positions) with several holdings in drawdown. To optimize for mean reversion, we are rotating out of the two worst performers (TUI1 and CBG) which have shown persistent downward trends without reversion. We are reallocating that capital into VTY and ZS, which are currently trading significantly below their average prices, offering a better risk/reward profile for a bounce. The remaining positions are held as losses are moderate or flat, avoiding overtrading."
}Prompts & responses
#1718 • openrouter • z-ai/glm-4.7 • 2026-03-27T10:36:26.472529+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK", "name": "BODYCOTE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 775.4, "change_1d_pct": 24.163330664531625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 28.652243313347768, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 18.63612217470385, "volatility_20d_pct": 103.46484337510964, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EVD_CFD.DE", "name": "CTS EVENTIM AG & CO KGAA", "sector": "", "last_price": 63.975, "change_1d_pct": 0.9435599665493788, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -22.467462845129617, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.460126561514977, "volatility_20d_pct": 51.66516386670678, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SPX_CFD.UK", "name": "SPIRAX-SARCO ENGINEERING PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 7608.71, "change_1d_pct": 10.91413994169097, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.905097055024719, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.459177525660632, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.71063298478786, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ESNT_CFD.UK", "name": "ESSENTRA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 108.4, "change_1d_pct": 4.230769230769238, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.40452119530135, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.771484932749797, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.9832071461764, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 567.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.4639927073837784, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.929923575376698, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.6875042216270137, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.84223442053181, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "INVP_CFD.UK", "name": "INVESTEC PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 623.5, "change_1d_pct": 8.529155787641418, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 17.34715626999408, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.569618971869698, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.97154585310399, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "name": "SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 708.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.14144271570013522, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.079918522466522, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.535991476029087, "volatility_20d_pct": 107.99712610776675, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "RHI MAGNESITA NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 2550.0, "change_1d_pct": -6.764168190127973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.35709026809392, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9429816244979738, "volatility_20d_pct": 151.25590362229855, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 372.74, "change_1d_pct": -26.625984251968504, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.365429078084645, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.129222788055436, "volatility_20d_pct": 169.0552301316783, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK", "name": "RENISHAW PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4100.0, "change_1d_pct": 18.155619596541793, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 36.779911314574385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.333028240759926, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.61568245477878, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TPK_CFD.UK", "name": "TRAVIS PERKINS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 601.57, "change_1d_pct": -1.21029986533977, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.5267641208837714, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.983077425595306, "volatility_20d_pct": 108.19399806448348, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HLAG_CFD.DE", "name": "HAPAG-LLOYD AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 133.6, "change_1d_pct": -4.724549830629343, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 8.15767527058544, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.723390214536604, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.33097209009259, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EMG_CFD.UK", "name": "MAN GROUP PLC/JERSEY", "sector": "", "last_price": 269.6, "change_1d_pct": 2.353834472285521, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 42.186331073171914, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 15.516783354614262, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.92367167139048, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "name": "PZ CUSSONS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 77.7, "change_1d_pct": -13.858093126385807, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.9808107121248817, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.5905093876257723, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.73478468401771, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 183.13, "change_1d_pct": -0.3102885138813294, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.070952368916624, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.0777282376278619, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.92203351330001, "market_cap_usd": null, 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null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 759.18, "change_1d_pct": 5.222453222453205, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 33.313724414201815, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.832962232591, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.25956465831767, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "name": "TRUSTPILOT AS", "sector": "", "last_price": 201.8, "change_1d_pct": 47.99061308301553, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.705098536536579, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.648695720131077, "volatility_20d_pct": 305.1263126393254, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CAR_CFD.US", "name": "Avis Budget Group Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 97.51, "change_1d_pct": 0.4739824832560524, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -16.342150395382205, "volatility_20d_pct": 9367.595274350311, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WEW_CFD.DE", "name": "Westwing Group AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 14.9, "change_1d_pct": -6.874999999999998, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 20.113051371304103, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.477552439736224, "volatility_20d_pct": 94.58925893463632, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FRES_CFD.UK", "name": "FRESNILLO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3194.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.7686809616634287, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 23.012497495892646, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.661948297110438, "volatility_20d_pct": 124.46547376473896, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK", "name": "KINGFISHER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 298.6, "change_1d_pct": -16.592178770949715, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.7661505198389493, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.10124743477527, "volatility_20d_pct": 106.76236046208503, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TESB_CFD.BE", "name": "Tessenderlo Chemie NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 21.1, "change_1d_pct": -14.747474747474742, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -18.03630525532953, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -19.349475160020567, "volatility_20d_pct": 105.76954265725848, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BEN_CFD.FR", "name": "Beneteau", "sector": "", "last_price": 6.57, "change_1d_pct": -2.8824833702882358, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -18.534665545743334, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.28491781216956, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.13916120542028, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "IP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 57.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.873935264054516, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.233643652522883, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.027486732888828, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.82123635439407, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GROW_CFD.UK", "name": "MOLTEN VENTURES PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 465.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.572739187418093, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.569628774815076, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.275686024250158, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.72658030340939, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "name": "IWG PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 177.0, "change_1d_pct": -26.786896095301127, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.645939421376646, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.14236071400294, "volatility_20d_pct": 154.02502086657427, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.4, "change_1d_pct": -12.674418604651173, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.03446775272175, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.34777426817815, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.82535981934274, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "INH_CFD.DE", "name": "Indus Holding AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 27.25, "change_1d_pct": -6.67808219178082, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.680259101881414, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.307200307555785, "volatility_20d_pct": 75.14610538029346, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "name": "HIKMA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1267.0, "change_1d_pct": -19.55555555555556, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.881851790845626, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.711709832205766, "volatility_20d_pct": 155.5956600941246, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHK_CFD.DE", "name": "Rhoen-Klinikum AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 12.6, "change_1d_pct": -3.076923076923077, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.7750883981479717, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.62389949549906, "volatility_20d_pct": 110.36101413598887, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IFX_CFD.DE", "name": "INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 37.204, "change_1d_pct": -0.8659969623491248, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.5797855285575304, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.256943636089556, "volatility_20d_pct": 104.572964459329, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PNE3_CFD.DE", "name": "PNE AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 7.427, "change_1d_pct": -7.28997628261141, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -36.33161396401069, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.534508366939848, "volatility_20d_pct": 80.94747069682411, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GNRC_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 201.63, "change_1d_pct": -2.064309306392076, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 16.780128091519764, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.4087482208329671, "volatility_20d_pct": 126.15125666748813, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GXI_CFD.DE", "name": "GERRESHEIMER AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 20.24, "change_1d_pct": -1.1573961029447744, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.96570735720886, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.922068038970684, "volatility_20d_pct": 175.84634016633532, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GAW_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 18310.0, "change_1d_pct": 6.268136970400473, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 9.806359154327659, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.486933677466932, "volatility_20d_pct": 60.72308604626657, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HOT_CFD.DE", "name": "HOCHTIEF AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 377.414, "change_1d_pct": -3.127823408624242, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 34.82347157418284, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.0797528144439794, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.30824645559373, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "STM_CFD.DE", "name": "STABILUS SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 15.94, "change_1d_pct": -0.2939888659535872, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -27.20776474864759, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.078188187358498, "volatility_20d_pct": 80.0531300844419, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WLN_CFD.FR", "name": "Worldline SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.282, "change_1d_pct": -15.315315315315326, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -87.35746324361764, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -76.23662256678183, "volatility_20d_pct": 433.4216965305222, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 313.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.3205128205128194, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8343803356850588, "volatility_20d_pct": 2871.9337920464413, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ROR_CFD.UK", "name": "ROTORK PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 315.64, "change_1d_pct": -7.815420560747666, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -3.440121571713639, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.465605958975752, "volatility_20d_pct": 114.53961834922319, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "name": "GREENCOAT UK WIND PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 100.7, "change_1d_pct": 1.6658253407370038, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -9.705655680854775, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.946868470357833, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.21786303082545, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HPP_CFD.US", "name": "HUDSON PACIFIC PROPERTIES IN", "sector": "", "last_price": 6.22, "change_1d_pct": 7.612456747404828, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -56.74412620700926, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.555676233403027, "volatility_20d_pct": 194.1468201523552, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FII_CFD.FR", "name": "Lisi Group", "sector": "", "last_price": 52.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.104104104104089, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.882127572483033, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.310445168374411, "volatility_20d_pct": 94.25445718195904, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}Output JSON
{
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"total_tokens": 13364,
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"message": {
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"content": "```json\n{\n \"selected_stocks\": [\n {\n \"symbol\": \"BOY_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 90,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme extension: +24% daily change and +28% above MA200 suggests high probability of short-term pullback.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"RSW_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 88,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Strong overextension: +18% daily gain with price +36% above MA200 indicates mean reversion potential.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"SPX_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 82,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Significant spike: +10.9% daily move and +15% above MA200 creates short-term reversion",
"refusal": null,
"reasoning": "1. **Analyze the Request:**\n * **Task:** `stage1_universe_scan`\n * **Region:** EU (Note: The input universe contains a mix of UK, DE, FR, BE, and some US symbols. I should prioritize EU symbols but can include US if they fit the strategy perfectly, though the prompt implies EU focus. The strategy rules say `universe_symbols_eu` is empty, implying I should scan the provided list which contains mostly EU tickers).\n * **Strategy:** `meanrev-v1` (Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion).\n * **Goal:** Select exactly 5 candidates for short-term mean reversion (2-10 days).\n * **Constraints:**\n * Max 5 candidates.\n * Avoid earnings within 5 days (data is null, so assume unknown but proceed with caution).\n * Avoid binary/event-driven moves (data is null, rely on price action).\n * Max 1 per sector (sector is null for all, so I can't enforce this strictly, but I should try to diversify by name/ticker if possible, or just ignore since data is missing).\n * Output ONLY valid JSON.\n * No narrative, no invented prices.\n\n2. **Analyze the Strategy (Mean Reversion):**\n * **Core Logic:** Look for assets that have moved significantly away from their mean (MA50/MA200) and are likely to snap back.\n * **Indicators:**\n * `distance_from_ma200_pct`: High positive values (overbought) or high negative values (oversold).\n * `distance_from_ma50_pct`: Similar logic, shorter term.\n * `change_1d_pct`: Large moves (up or down) often precede a reversion.\n * `volatility_20d_pct`: High volatility can mean mean reversion is riskier or more profitable, but extreme volatility (like 9000%) is usually bad data or binary events.\n * **Selection Criteria:**\n * *Long Reversion (Short the rip):* High positive distance from MA50/MA200, big positive 1-day change.\n * *Short Reversion (Buy the dip):* High negative distance from MA50/MA200, big negative 1-day change.\n * **Filtering:**\n * Exclude extreme outliers in volatility that suggest data errors (e.g., CAR_CFD.US with 9367% vol, ATG_CFD.UK with 2871% vol, WLN_CFD.FR with 433% vol).\n * Exclude US tickers if possible since the region is EU, unless they are the best fits. The prompt specifies `region: \"EU\"`. I will stick to EU tickers (UK, DE, FR, BE).\n\n3. **Scan the Universe (EU Tickers):**\n\n * *BOY_CFD.UK (Bodycote):* +24% 1d, +18% vs MA50, +28% vs MA200. Strong candidate for short reversion (shorting the spike). Vol 103%.\n * *EVD_CFD.DE (CTS Eventim):* +0.9% 1d, -5% vs MA50, -22% vs MA200. Not a strong signal today.\n * *SPX_CFD.UK (Spirax-Sarco):* +10.9% 1d, +8% vs MA50, +15% vs MA200. Good candidate for short reversion.\n * *ESNT_CFD.UK (Essentra):* +4.2% 1d, +9% vs MA50, +7% vs MA200. Moderate.\n * *UTG_CFD.UK (Unite Group):* +3.5% 1d, -3% vs MA50, -23% vs MA200. Mixed signals.\n * *INVP_CFD.UK (Investec):* +8.5% 1d, +9% vs MA50, +17% vs MA200. Good candidate for short reversion.\n * *SAFE_CFD.UK (Safestore):* Flat 1d, -2% vs MA50, +7% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *RHIM_CFD.UK (Rhi Magnesita):* -6.7% 1d, +0.9% vs MA50, -2% vs MA200. Vol 151%. High vol.\n * *CBG_CFD.UK (Close Brothers):* -26.6% 1d, -22% vs MA50, -13% vs MA200. Massive drop. Vol 169%. This looks like a binary event or bad news. \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves\". I should probably reject this despite the reversion potential because a 26% drop in one day is usually structural.\n * *RSW_CFD.UK (Renishaw):* +18% 1d, +14% vs MA50, +36% vs MA200. Strong candidate for short reversion.\n * *TPK_CFD.UK (Travis Perkins):* -1.2% 1d, -5% vs MA50, +0.5% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *HLAG_CFD.DE (Hapag-Lloyd):* -4.7% 1d, +3.7% vs MA50, +8% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *EMG_CFD.UK (Man Group):* +2.3% 1d, +15% vs MA50, +42% vs MA200. Strong uptrend, but extended.\n * *PZC_CFD.UK (PZ Cussons):* -13.8% 1d, +2.5% vs MA50, +2.9% vs MA200. Big drop, but near MA means. Vol 92%. Potential bounce candidate, but 13% drop is large.\n * *DOM_CFD.UK (Domino's):* -0.3% 1d, +1% vs MA50, -15% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *HWDN_CFD.UK (Howden):* -2.6% 1d, +0.6% vs MA50, +2.9% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IMI_CFD.UK (IMI):* +1.5% 1d, +2.5% vs MA50, +20% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *STJ_CFD.UK (St James's Place):* -14.8% 1d, -6.6% vs MA50, +4.6% vs MA200. Big drop. Vol 125%. Potential bounce.\n * *ABDN_CFD.UK (Aberdeen):* -7.7% 1d, -2.3% vs MA50, +6.4% vs MA200. Moderate drop.\n * *GMM_CFD.DE (Grammer):* +0.8% 1d, +0.7% vs MA50, +4.5% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *SMIN_CFD.UK (Smiths):* -3% 1d, -0.3% vs MA50, +9.8% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *BBY_CFD.UK (Balfour Beatty):* +5.2% 1d, +8.8% vs MA50, +33% vs MA200. Good candidate for short reversion.\n * *TRST_CFD.UK (Trustpilot):* +47% 1d, +12% vs MA50, -5% vs MA200. Vol 305%. This is a massive move. Likely binary event (takeover rumor or earnings miss/beat). Avoid.\n * *WEW_CFD.DE (Westwing):* -6.8% 1d, -7.4% vs MA50, +20% vs MA200. Moderate drop.\n * *FRES_CFD.UK (Fresnillo):* +3.7% 1d, -14% vs MA50, +23% vs MA200. Divergence between MA50 and MA200.\n * *KGF_CFD.UK (Kingfisher):* -16.5% 1d, -8% vs MA50, +1.7% vs MA200. Big drop. Vol 106%. Potential bounce.\n * *TESB_CFD.BE (Tessenderlo):* -14.7% 1d, -19% vs MA50, -18% vs MA200. Strong downtrend, big drop. Avoid binary.\n * *BEN_CFD.FR (Beneteau):* -2.8% 1d, -12% vs MA50, -18% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IPO_CFD.UK (IP Group):* -1.8% 1d, -2% vs MA50, +10% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *GROW_CFD.UK (Molten Ventures):* +1.5% 1d, -4% vs MA50, +22% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IWG_CFD.UK (IWG):* -26.7% 1d, -22% vs MA50, -17% vs MA200. Massive drop. Vol 154%. Likely binary event. Avoid.\n * *BYIT_CFD.UK (Bytes Tech):* -12.6% 1d, -14% vs MA50, -28% vs MA200. Strong downtrend.\n * *INH_CFD.DE (Indus):* -6.6% 1d, -10% vs MA50, +6.6% vs MA200. Moderate.\n * *WKP_CFD.UK (Workspace):* +3.6% 1d, +5.8% vs MA50, +1.8% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *HIK_CFD.UK (Hikma):* -19.5% 1d, -15% vs MA50, -28% vs MA200. Big drop. Vol 155%. Likely binary. Avoid.\n * *RHK_CFD.DE (Rhoen-Klinikum):* -3% 1d, -2.6% vs MA50, +0.7% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IFX_CFD.DE (Infineon):* -0.8% 1d, -11% vs MA50, +0.5% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *PNE3_CFD.DE (PNE):* -7.2% 1d, -15% vs MA50, -36% vs MA200. Strong downtrend.\n * *GXI_CFD.DE (Gerresheimer):* -1.1% 1d, -4.9% vs MA50, -37% vs MA200. Strong downtrend.\n * *GAW_CFD.UK:* +6.2% 1d, +5.4% vs MA50, +9.8% vs MA200. Moderate.\n * *HOT_CFD.DE (Hochtief):* -3.1% 1d, -1% vs MA50, +34% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *STM_CFD.DE (Stabilus):* -0.2% 1d, -13% vs MA50, -27% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *WLN_CFD.FR (Worldline):* -15% 1d, -76% vs MA50, -87% vs MA200. Vol 433%. This is a disaster stock. Avoid.\n * *ROR_CFD.UK (Rotork):* -7.8% 1d, -7.4% vs MA50, -3.4% vs MA200. Moderate drop.\n * *UKW_CFD.UK (Greencoat):* +1.6% 1d, -2.9% vs MA50, -9.7% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *FII_CFD.FR (Lisi):* +4.1% 1d, -5.3% vs MA50, +7.8% vs MA200. Weak.\n\n4. **Select Top 5 Candidates (Mean Reversion Focus):**\n\n * *Candidate 1: BOY_CFD.UK (Bodycote)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +24% 1-day change, +18% vs MA50, +28% vs MA200. Very extended.\n * Score: 90.\n\n * *Candidate 2: RSW_CFD.UK (Renishaw)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +18% 1-day change, +14% vs MA50, +36% vs MA200. Highly extended.\n * Score: 88.\n\n * *Candidate 3: SPX_CFD.UK (Spirax-Sarco)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +10.9% 1-day change, +8% vs MA50, +15% vs MA200. Strong move up.\n * Score: 82.\n\n * *Candidate 4: INVP_CFD.UK (Investec)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +8.5% 1-day change, +9% vs MA50, +17% vs MA200. Extended.\n * Score: 80.\n\n * *Candidate 5: BBY_CFD.UK (Balfour Beatty)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +5.2% 1-day change, +8% vs MA50, +33% vs MA200. Good extension.\n * Score: 75.\n\n * *Alternative Long Candidates (Buying the dip):*\n * STJ_CFD.UK (-14.8% 1d, -6% vs MA50). Vol 125%. A bit risky.\n * KGF_CFD.UK (-16.5% 1d, -8% vs MA50). Vol 106%.\n * PZC_CFD.UK (-13.8% 1d, +2.5% vs MA50). This is interesting. It dropped hard but is still above the MA50. Might be a dead cat bounce.\n * ABDN_CFD.UK (-7.7% 1d, -2% vs MA50). Decent drop, close to mean.\n\n * *Decision:* The market seems to have a lot of strong upward spikes (BOY, RSW, SPX, INVP). These are cleaner \"Short the Rip\" mean reversion setups. The large drops (CBG, IWG, WLN, HIK) are likely binary events (earnings or fraud/news) given the magnitude (>15-20%), so I will avoid them per the \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves\" rule. I will stick to the \"Short the Rip\" candidates as they appear to be momentum spikes rather than gap-down disasters.\n\n * *Selection:*\n 1. BOY_CFD.UK (Massive spike)\n 2. RSW_CFD.UK (Large spike)\n 3. SPX_CFD.UK (Strong spike)\n 4. INVP_CFD.UK (Strong spike)\n 5. BBY_CFD.UK (Moderate spike, extended on MA200)\n\n * *Reviewing Sector Constraint:* \"max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)\".\n * Sector data is null for all. I cannot enforce this. I will select based on price action.\n\n5. **Construct Output:**\n * Format: JSON.\n * Fields: `symbol`, `mean_reversion_score`, `selection_reason`.\n * `rejected_common_reasons`: List of reasons for rejecting others (e.g., \"Binary event risk\", \"Low volatility\", \"Insufficient extension\", \"Data anomaly\").\n\n6. **Final Polish of Reasons:**\n * BOY: +24% daily gain, +28% above MA200, extreme extension suggests short-term pullback.\n * RSW: +18% daily gain, +36% above MA200, highly overextended.\n * SPX: +10.9% daily gain, +15% above MA200, strong upward deviation.\n * INVP: +8.5% daily gain, +17% above MA200, significant extension.\n * BBY: +5.2% daily gain, +33% above MA200, sustained uptrend deviation.\n\n * *Rejected:*\n * CBG, IWG, WLN, HIK, TRST, ATG, CAR: Extreme daily moves (>20%) or volatility likely indicating binary events/news.\n * EVD, DOM, HWDN: Insufficient deviation from mean.\n * US tickers (CAR, GNRC, HPP): Region mismatch (EU focus).\n\n7. **JSON Generation.**",
"reasoning_details": [
{
"text": "1. **Analyze the Request:**\n * **Task:** `stage1_universe_scan`\n * **Region:** EU (Note: The input universe contains a mix of UK, DE, FR, BE, and some US symbols. I should prioritize EU symbols but can include US if they fit the strategy perfectly, though the prompt implies EU focus. The strategy rules say `universe_symbols_eu` is empty, implying I should scan the provided list which contains mostly EU tickers).\n * **Strategy:** `meanrev-v1` (Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion).\n * **Goal:** Select exactly 5 candidates for short-term mean reversion (2-10 days).\n * **Constraints:**\n * Max 5 candidates.\n * Avoid earnings within 5 days (data is null, so assume unknown but proceed with caution).\n * Avoid binary/event-driven moves (data is null, rely on price action).\n * Max 1 per sector (sector is null for all, so I can't enforce this strictly, but I should try to diversify by name/ticker if possible, or just ignore since data is missing).\n * Output ONLY valid JSON.\n * No narrative, no invented prices.\n\n2. **Analyze the Strategy (Mean Reversion):**\n * **Core Logic:** Look for assets that have moved significantly away from their mean (MA50/MA200) and are likely to snap back.\n * **Indicators:**\n * `distance_from_ma200_pct`: High positive values (overbought) or high negative values (oversold).\n * `distance_from_ma50_pct`: Similar logic, shorter term.\n * `change_1d_pct`: Large moves (up or down) often precede a reversion.\n * `volatility_20d_pct`: High volatility can mean mean reversion is riskier or more profitable, but extreme volatility (like 9000%) is usually bad data or binary events.\n * **Selection Criteria:**\n * *Long Reversion (Short the rip):* High positive distance from MA50/MA200, big positive 1-day change.\n * *Short Reversion (Buy the dip):* High negative distance from MA50/MA200, big negative 1-day change.\n * **Filtering:**\n * Exclude extreme outliers in volatility that suggest data errors (e.g., CAR_CFD.US with 9367% vol, ATG_CFD.UK with 2871% vol, WLN_CFD.FR with 433% vol).\n * Exclude US tickers if possible since the region is EU, unless they are the best fits. The prompt specifies `region: \"EU\"`. I will stick to EU tickers (UK, DE, FR, BE).\n\n3. **Scan the Universe (EU Tickers):**\n\n * *BOY_CFD.UK (Bodycote):* +24% 1d, +18% vs MA50, +28% vs MA200. Strong candidate for short reversion (shorting the spike). Vol 103%.\n * *EVD_CFD.DE (CTS Eventim):* +0.9% 1d, -5% vs MA50, -22% vs MA200. Not a strong signal today.\n * *SPX_CFD.UK (Spirax-Sarco):* +10.9% 1d, +8% vs MA50, +15% vs MA200. Good candidate for short reversion.\n * *ESNT_CFD.UK (Essentra):* +4.2% 1d, +9% vs MA50, +7% vs MA200. Moderate.\n * *UTG_CFD.UK (Unite Group):* +3.5% 1d, -3% vs MA50, -23% vs MA200. Mixed signals.\n * *INVP_CFD.UK (Investec):* +8.5% 1d, +9% vs MA50, +17% vs MA200. Good candidate for short reversion.\n * *SAFE_CFD.UK (Safestore):* Flat 1d, -2% vs MA50, +7% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *RHIM_CFD.UK (Rhi Magnesita):* -6.7% 1d, +0.9% vs MA50, -2% vs MA200. Vol 151%. High vol.\n * *CBG_CFD.UK (Close Brothers):* -26.6% 1d, -22% vs MA50, -13% vs MA200. Massive drop. Vol 169%. This looks like a binary event or bad news. \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves\". I should probably reject this despite the reversion potential because a 26% drop in one day is usually structural.\n * *RSW_CFD.UK (Renishaw):* +18% 1d, +14% vs MA50, +36% vs MA200. Strong candidate for short reversion.\n * *TPK_CFD.UK (Travis Perkins):* -1.2% 1d, -5% vs MA50, +0.5% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *HLAG_CFD.DE (Hapag-Lloyd):* -4.7% 1d, +3.7% vs MA50, +8% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *EMG_CFD.UK (Man Group):* +2.3% 1d, +15% vs MA50, +42% vs MA200. Strong uptrend, but extended.\n * *PZC_CFD.UK (PZ Cussons):* -13.8% 1d, +2.5% vs MA50, +2.9% vs MA200. Big drop, but near MA means. Vol 92%. Potential bounce candidate, but 13% drop is large.\n * *DOM_CFD.UK (Domino's):* -0.3% 1d, +1% vs MA50, -15% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *HWDN_CFD.UK (Howden):* -2.6% 1d, +0.6% vs MA50, +2.9% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IMI_CFD.UK (IMI):* +1.5% 1d, +2.5% vs MA50, +20% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *STJ_CFD.UK (St James's Place):* -14.8% 1d, -6.6% vs MA50, +4.6% vs MA200. Big drop. Vol 125%. Potential bounce.\n * *ABDN_CFD.UK (Aberdeen):* -7.7% 1d, -2.3% vs MA50, +6.4% vs MA200. Moderate drop.\n * *GMM_CFD.DE (Grammer):* +0.8% 1d, +0.7% vs MA50, +4.5% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *SMIN_CFD.UK (Smiths):* -3% 1d, -0.3% vs MA50, +9.8% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *BBY_CFD.UK (Balfour Beatty):* +5.2% 1d, +8.8% vs MA50, +33% vs MA200. Good candidate for short reversion.\n * *TRST_CFD.UK (Trustpilot):* +47% 1d, +12% vs MA50, -5% vs MA200. Vol 305%. This is a massive move. Likely binary event (takeover rumor or earnings miss/beat). Avoid.\n * *WEW_CFD.DE (Westwing):* -6.8% 1d, -7.4% vs MA50, +20% vs MA200. Moderate drop.\n * *FRES_CFD.UK (Fresnillo):* +3.7% 1d, -14% vs MA50, +23% vs MA200. Divergence between MA50 and MA200.\n * *KGF_CFD.UK (Kingfisher):* -16.5% 1d, -8% vs MA50, +1.7% vs MA200. Big drop. Vol 106%. Potential bounce.\n * *TESB_CFD.BE (Tessenderlo):* -14.7% 1d, -19% vs MA50, -18% vs MA200. Strong downtrend, big drop. Avoid binary.\n * *BEN_CFD.FR (Beneteau):* -2.8% 1d, -12% vs MA50, -18% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IPO_CFD.UK (IP Group):* -1.8% 1d, -2% vs MA50, +10% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *GROW_CFD.UK (Molten Ventures):* +1.5% 1d, -4% vs MA50, +22% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IWG_CFD.UK (IWG):* -26.7% 1d, -22% vs MA50, -17% vs MA200. Massive drop. Vol 154%. Likely binary event. Avoid.\n * *BYIT_CFD.UK (Bytes Tech):* -12.6% 1d, -14% vs MA50, -28% vs MA200. Strong downtrend.\n * *INH_CFD.DE (Indus):* -6.6% 1d, -10% vs MA50, +6.6% vs MA200. Moderate.\n * *WKP_CFD.UK (Workspace):* +3.6% 1d, +5.8% vs MA50, +1.8% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *HIK_CFD.UK (Hikma):* -19.5% 1d, -15% vs MA50, -28% vs MA200. Big drop. Vol 155%. Likely binary. Avoid.\n * *RHK_CFD.DE (Rhoen-Klinikum):* -3% 1d, -2.6% vs MA50, +0.7% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IFX_CFD.DE (Infineon):* -0.8% 1d, -11% vs MA50, +0.5% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *PNE3_CFD.DE (PNE):* -7.2% 1d, -15% vs MA50, -36% vs MA200. Strong downtrend.\n * *GXI_CFD.DE (Gerresheimer):* -1.1% 1d, -4.9% vs MA50, -37% vs MA200. Strong downtrend.\n * *GAW_CFD.UK:* +6.2% 1d, +5.4% vs MA50, +9.8% vs MA200. Moderate.\n * *HOT_CFD.DE (Hochtief):* -3.1% 1d, -1% vs MA50, +34% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *STM_CFD.DE (Stabilus):* -0.2% 1d, -13% vs MA50, -27% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *WLN_CFD.FR (Worldline):* -15% 1d, -76% vs MA50, -87% vs MA200. Vol 433%. This is a disaster stock. Avoid.\n * *ROR_CFD.UK (Rotork):* -7.8% 1d, -7.4% vs MA50, -3.4% vs MA200. Moderate drop.\n * *UKW_CFD.UK (Greencoat):* +1.6% 1d, -2.9% vs MA50, -9.7% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *FII_CFD.FR (Lisi):* +4.1% 1d, -5.3% vs MA50, +7.8% vs MA200. Weak.\n\n4. **Select Top 5 Candidates (Mean Reversion Focus):**\n\n * *Candidate 1: BOY_CFD.UK (Bodycote)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +24% 1-day change, +18% vs MA50, +28% vs MA200. Very extended.\n * Score: 90.\n\n * *Candidate 2: RSW_CFD.UK (Renishaw)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +18% 1-day change, +14% vs MA50, +36% vs MA200. Highly extended.\n * Score: 88.\n\n * *Candidate 3: SPX_CFD.UK (Spirax-Sarco)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +10.9% 1-day change, +8% vs MA50, +15% vs MA200. Strong move up.\n * Score: 82.\n\n * *Candidate 4: INVP_CFD.UK (Investec)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +8.5% 1-day change, +9% vs MA50, +17% vs MA200. Extended.\n * Score: 80.\n\n * *Candidate 5: BBY_CFD.UK (Balfour Beatty)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +5.2% 1-day change, +8% vs MA50, +33% vs MA200. Good extension.\n * Score: 75.\n\n * *Alternative Long Candidates (Buying the dip):*\n * STJ_CFD.UK (-14.8% 1d, -6% vs MA50). Vol 125%. A bit risky.\n * KGF_CFD.UK (-16.5% 1d, -8% vs MA50). Vol 106%.\n * PZC_CFD.UK (-13.8% 1d, +2.5% vs MA50). This is interesting. It dropped hard but is still above the MA50. Might be a dead cat bounce.\n * ABDN_CFD.UK (-7.7% 1d, -2% vs MA50). Decent drop, close to mean.\n\n * *Decision:* The market seems to have a lot of strong upward spikes (BOY, RSW, SPX, INVP). These are cleaner \"Short the Rip\" mean reversion setups. The large drops (CBG, IWG, WLN, HIK) are likely binary events (earnings or fraud/news) given the magnitude (>15-20%), so I will avoid them per the \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves\" rule. I will stick to the \"Short the Rip\" candidates as they appear to be momentum spikes rather than gap-down disasters.\n\n * *Selection:*\n 1. BOY_CFD.UK (Massive spike)\n 2. RSW_CFD.UK (Large spike)\n 3. SPX_CFD.UK (Strong spike)\n 4. INVP_CFD.UK (Strong spike)\n 5. BBY_CFD.UK (Moderate spike, extended on MA200)\n\n * *Reviewing Sector Constraint:* \"max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)\".\n * Sector data is null for all. I cannot enforce this. I will select based on price action.\n\n5. **Construct Output:**\n * Format: JSON.\n * Fields: `symbol`, `mean_reversion_score`, `selection_reason`.\n * `rejected_common_reasons`: List of reasons for rejecting others (e.g., \"Binary event risk\", \"Low volatility\", \"Insufficient extension\", \"Data anomaly\").\n\n6. **Final Polish of Reasons:**\n * BOY: +24% daily gain, +28% above MA200, extreme extension suggests short-term pullback.\n * RSW: +18% daily gain, +36% above MA200, highly overextended.\n * SPX: +10.9% daily gain, +15% above MA200, strong upward deviation.\n * INVP: +8.5% daily gain, +17% above MA200, significant extension.\n * BBY: +5.2% daily gain, +33% above MA200, sustained uptrend deviation.\n\n * *Rejected:*\n * CBG, IWG, WLN, HIK, TRST, ATG, CAR: Extreme daily moves (>20%) or volatility likely indicating binary events/news.\n * EVD, DOM, HWDN: Insufficient deviation from mean.\n * US tickers (CAR, GNRC, HPP): Region mismatch (EU focus).\n\n7. **JSON Generation.**",
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]
},
"logprobs": null,
"finish_reason": "length",
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}#1719 • openrouter • z-ai/glm-4.7 • 2026-03-27T10:38:16.025579+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US", "qty": 12.025494047380446, "avg_price": 249.47, "last_price": 240.77, "unrealized_pnl": -104.62179821220974, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T18:06:47.909233+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.2137531068765535, "avg_price": 482.8, "last_price": 482.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.453, "last_price": 0.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T18:07:22.382508+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.048505660782315, "avg_price": 372.74, "last_price": 342.92, "unrealized_pnl": -240.00643880452856, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.5416238437821173, "avg_price": 1945.9999999999998, "last_price": 1832.5, "unrealized_pnl": -174.97430626926996, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 349.425, "last_price": 374.67, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 47.4, "last_price": 52.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FICO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1127.4099999999999, "last_price": 1160.795, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T18:06:47.909233+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 400.6, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.3529411764705883, "avg_price": 1275.0, "last_price": 1236.0, "unrealized_pnl": -91.76470588235294, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "qty": 16.216216216216218, "avg_price": 185.0, "last_price": 172.2, "unrealized_pnl": -207.56756756756778, "opened_at": "2026-03-17T10:04:29.123574+00:00"}, {"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.384215991692628, "avg_price": 288.9, "last_price": 288.9, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T10:11:44.579260+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 13.824884792626728, "avg_price": 217.0, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": -175.5760368663593, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 22.57336343115124, "avg_price": 132.9, "last_price": 132.9, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 442.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 34.98, "last_price": 34.98, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 134.3, "last_price": 139.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE", "qty": 405.51500405515003, "avg_price": 7.398000000000001, "last_price": 6.723, "unrealized_pnl": -273.72262773722656, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 385.0, "last_price": 338.75, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-17T10:04:29.123574+00:00"}, {"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1.73, "last_price": 1.83, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T18:07:22.382508+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 159.76, "last_price": 142.41, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T17:33:48.338981+00:00"}], "candidates": [], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}Output JSON
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Oversold condition. Current price (338.75) is significantly below historical average (385.0), representing a -12% deviation. Strong mean-reversion entry signal.",
"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "Oversold condition. Current price (142.41) is below historical average (159.76), representing a -10.8% deviation. Attractive mean-reversion setup.",
"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Moderate loss (-3.5%). Holding for potential mean reversion bounce.",
"symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US"
},
{
"reason": "Flat performance (0% PnL). No clear signal to exit.",
"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Down -5.8%. Holding to see if support holds and price reverts.",
"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Down -3.0%. Marginal move, prefer to hold to avoid churn.",
"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Down -6.9%. Monitoring, but keeping position for now.",
"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat performance (0% PnL). No action required.",
"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Down -5.8%. Holding for reversion.",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat performance (0% PnL). No action required.",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Worst performing position (-9.1% PnL). Failed to revert after holding since early March. Cutting loss to free up capital for better mean-reversion opportunities.",
"symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE"
},
{
"reason": "Significant drawdown (-8.0% PnL) since opening. Price action indicates continued downward pressure rather than mean reversion. Rotating out.",
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio is currently at max capacity (10 positions) with several holdings in drawdown. To optimize for mean reversion, we are rotating out of the two worst performers (TUI1 and CBG) which have shown persistent downward trends without reversion. We are reallocating that capital into VTY and ZS, which are currently trading significantly below their average prices, offering a better risk/reward profile for a bounce. The remaining positions are held as losses are moderate or flat, avoiding overtrading."
}Selection logs
#845 • stage1 • 2026-03-27T10:38:16.021554+00:00
{
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"content": "```json\n{\n \"selected_stocks\": [\n {\n \"symbol\": \"BOY_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 90,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme extension: +24% daily change and +28% above MA200 suggests high probability of short-term pullback.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"RSW_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 88,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Strong overextension: +18% daily gain with price +36% above MA200 indicates mean reversion potential.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"SPX_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 82,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Significant spike: +10.9% daily move and +15% above MA200 creates short-term reversion",
"refusal": null,
"reasoning": "1. **Analyze the Request:**\n * **Task:** `stage1_universe_scan`\n * **Region:** EU (Note: The input universe contains a mix of UK, DE, FR, BE, and some US symbols. I should prioritize EU symbols but can include US if they fit the strategy perfectly, though the prompt implies EU focus. The strategy rules say `universe_symbols_eu` is empty, implying I should scan the provided list which contains mostly EU tickers).\n * **Strategy:** `meanrev-v1` (Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion).\n * **Goal:** Select exactly 5 candidates for short-term mean reversion (2-10 days).\n * **Constraints:**\n * Max 5 candidates.\n * Avoid earnings within 5 days (data is null, so assume unknown but proceed with caution).\n * Avoid binary/event-driven moves (data is null, rely on price action).\n * Max 1 per sector (sector is null for all, so I can't enforce this strictly, but I should try to diversify by name/ticker if possible, or just ignore since data is missing).\n * Output ONLY valid JSON.\n * No narrative, no invented prices.\n\n2. **Analyze the Strategy (Mean Reversion):**\n * **Core Logic:** Look for assets that have moved significantly away from their mean (MA50/MA200) and are likely to snap back.\n * **Indicators:**\n * `distance_from_ma200_pct`: High positive values (overbought) or high negative values (oversold).\n * `distance_from_ma50_pct`: Similar logic, shorter term.\n * `change_1d_pct`: Large moves (up or down) often precede a reversion.\n * `volatility_20d_pct`: High volatility can mean mean reversion is riskier or more profitable, but extreme volatility (like 9000%) is usually bad data or binary events.\n * **Selection Criteria:**\n * *Long Reversion (Short the rip):* High positive distance from MA50/MA200, big positive 1-day change.\n * *Short Reversion (Buy the dip):* High negative distance from MA50/MA200, big negative 1-day change.\n * **Filtering:**\n * Exclude extreme outliers in volatility that suggest data errors (e.g., CAR_CFD.US with 9367% vol, ATG_CFD.UK with 2871% vol, WLN_CFD.FR with 433% vol).\n * Exclude US tickers if possible since the region is EU, unless they are the best fits. The prompt specifies `region: \"EU\"`. I will stick to EU tickers (UK, DE, FR, BE).\n\n3. **Scan the Universe (EU Tickers):**\n\n * *BOY_CFD.UK (Bodycote):* +24% 1d, +18% vs MA50, +28% vs MA200. Strong candidate for short reversion (shorting the spike). Vol 103%.\n * *EVD_CFD.DE (CTS Eventim):* +0.9% 1d, -5% vs MA50, -22% vs MA200. Not a strong signal today.\n * *SPX_CFD.UK (Spirax-Sarco):* +10.9% 1d, +8% vs MA50, +15% vs MA200. Good candidate for short reversion.\n * *ESNT_CFD.UK (Essentra):* +4.2% 1d, +9% vs MA50, +7% vs MA200. Moderate.\n * *UTG_CFD.UK (Unite Group):* +3.5% 1d, -3% vs MA50, -23% vs MA200. Mixed signals.\n * *INVP_CFD.UK (Investec):* +8.5% 1d, +9% vs MA50, +17% vs MA200. Good candidate for short reversion.\n * *SAFE_CFD.UK (Safestore):* Flat 1d, -2% vs MA50, +7% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *RHIM_CFD.UK (Rhi Magnesita):* -6.7% 1d, +0.9% vs MA50, -2% vs MA200. Vol 151%. High vol.\n * *CBG_CFD.UK (Close Brothers):* -26.6% 1d, -22% vs MA50, -13% vs MA200. Massive drop. Vol 169%. This looks like a binary event or bad news. \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves\". I should probably reject this despite the reversion potential because a 26% drop in one day is usually structural.\n * *RSW_CFD.UK (Renishaw):* +18% 1d, +14% vs MA50, +36% vs MA200. Strong candidate for short reversion.\n * *TPK_CFD.UK (Travis Perkins):* -1.2% 1d, -5% vs MA50, +0.5% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *HLAG_CFD.DE (Hapag-Lloyd):* -4.7% 1d, +3.7% vs MA50, +8% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *EMG_CFD.UK (Man Group):* +2.3% 1d, +15% vs MA50, +42% vs MA200. Strong uptrend, but extended.\n * *PZC_CFD.UK (PZ Cussons):* -13.8% 1d, +2.5% vs MA50, +2.9% vs MA200. Big drop, but near MA means. Vol 92%. Potential bounce candidate, but 13% drop is large.\n * *DOM_CFD.UK (Domino's):* -0.3% 1d, +1% vs MA50, -15% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *HWDN_CFD.UK (Howden):* -2.6% 1d, +0.6% vs MA50, +2.9% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IMI_CFD.UK (IMI):* +1.5% 1d, +2.5% vs MA50, +20% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *STJ_CFD.UK (St James's Place):* -14.8% 1d, -6.6% vs MA50, +4.6% vs MA200. Big drop. Vol 125%. Potential bounce.\n * *ABDN_CFD.UK (Aberdeen):* -7.7% 1d, -2.3% vs MA50, +6.4% vs MA200. Moderate drop.\n * *GMM_CFD.DE (Grammer):* +0.8% 1d, +0.7% vs MA50, +4.5% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *SMIN_CFD.UK (Smiths):* -3% 1d, -0.3% vs MA50, +9.8% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *BBY_CFD.UK (Balfour Beatty):* +5.2% 1d, +8.8% vs MA50, +33% vs MA200. Good candidate for short reversion.\n * *TRST_CFD.UK (Trustpilot):* +47% 1d, +12% vs MA50, -5% vs MA200. Vol 305%. This is a massive move. Likely binary event (takeover rumor or earnings miss/beat). Avoid.\n * *WEW_CFD.DE (Westwing):* -6.8% 1d, -7.4% vs MA50, +20% vs MA200. Moderate drop.\n * *FRES_CFD.UK (Fresnillo):* +3.7% 1d, -14% vs MA50, +23% vs MA200. Divergence between MA50 and MA200.\n * *KGF_CFD.UK (Kingfisher):* -16.5% 1d, -8% vs MA50, +1.7% vs MA200. Big drop. Vol 106%. Potential bounce.\n * *TESB_CFD.BE (Tessenderlo):* -14.7% 1d, -19% vs MA50, -18% vs MA200. Strong downtrend, big drop. Avoid binary.\n * *BEN_CFD.FR (Beneteau):* -2.8% 1d, -12% vs MA50, -18% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IPO_CFD.UK (IP Group):* -1.8% 1d, -2% vs MA50, +10% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *GROW_CFD.UK (Molten Ventures):* +1.5% 1d, -4% vs MA50, +22% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IWG_CFD.UK (IWG):* -26.7% 1d, -22% vs MA50, -17% vs MA200. Massive drop. Vol 154%. Likely binary event. Avoid.\n * *BYIT_CFD.UK (Bytes Tech):* -12.6% 1d, -14% vs MA50, -28% vs MA200. Strong downtrend.\n * *INH_CFD.DE (Indus):* -6.6% 1d, -10% vs MA50, +6.6% vs MA200. Moderate.\n * *WKP_CFD.UK (Workspace):* +3.6% 1d, +5.8% vs MA50, +1.8% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *HIK_CFD.UK (Hikma):* -19.5% 1d, -15% vs MA50, -28% vs MA200. Big drop. Vol 155%. Likely binary. Avoid.\n * *RHK_CFD.DE (Rhoen-Klinikum):* -3% 1d, -2.6% vs MA50, +0.7% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IFX_CFD.DE (Infineon):* -0.8% 1d, -11% vs MA50, +0.5% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *PNE3_CFD.DE (PNE):* -7.2% 1d, -15% vs MA50, -36% vs MA200. Strong downtrend.\n * *GXI_CFD.DE (Gerresheimer):* -1.1% 1d, -4.9% vs MA50, -37% vs MA200. Strong downtrend.\n * *GAW_CFD.UK:* +6.2% 1d, +5.4% vs MA50, +9.8% vs MA200. Moderate.\n * *HOT_CFD.DE (Hochtief):* -3.1% 1d, -1% vs MA50, +34% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *STM_CFD.DE (Stabilus):* -0.2% 1d, -13% vs MA50, -27% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *WLN_CFD.FR (Worldline):* -15% 1d, -76% vs MA50, -87% vs MA200. Vol 433%. This is a disaster stock. Avoid.\n * *ROR_CFD.UK (Rotork):* -7.8% 1d, -7.4% vs MA50, -3.4% vs MA200. Moderate drop.\n * *UKW_CFD.UK (Greencoat):* +1.6% 1d, -2.9% vs MA50, -9.7% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *FII_CFD.FR (Lisi):* +4.1% 1d, -5.3% vs MA50, +7.8% vs MA200. Weak.\n\n4. **Select Top 5 Candidates (Mean Reversion Focus):**\n\n * *Candidate 1: BOY_CFD.UK (Bodycote)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +24% 1-day change, +18% vs MA50, +28% vs MA200. Very extended.\n * Score: 90.\n\n * *Candidate 2: RSW_CFD.UK (Renishaw)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +18% 1-day change, +14% vs MA50, +36% vs MA200. Highly extended.\n * Score: 88.\n\n * *Candidate 3: SPX_CFD.UK (Spirax-Sarco)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +10.9% 1-day change, +8% vs MA50, +15% vs MA200. Strong move up.\n * Score: 82.\n\n * *Candidate 4: INVP_CFD.UK (Investec)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +8.5% 1-day change, +9% vs MA50, +17% vs MA200. Extended.\n * Score: 80.\n\n * *Candidate 5: BBY_CFD.UK (Balfour Beatty)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +5.2% 1-day change, +8% vs MA50, +33% vs MA200. Good extension.\n * Score: 75.\n\n * *Alternative Long Candidates (Buying the dip):*\n * STJ_CFD.UK (-14.8% 1d, -6% vs MA50). Vol 125%. A bit risky.\n * KGF_CFD.UK (-16.5% 1d, -8% vs MA50). Vol 106%.\n * PZC_CFD.UK (-13.8% 1d, +2.5% vs MA50). This is interesting. It dropped hard but is still above the MA50. Might be a dead cat bounce.\n * ABDN_CFD.UK (-7.7% 1d, -2% vs MA50). Decent drop, close to mean.\n\n * *Decision:* The market seems to have a lot of strong upward spikes (BOY, RSW, SPX, INVP). These are cleaner \"Short the Rip\" mean reversion setups. The large drops (CBG, IWG, WLN, HIK) are likely binary events (earnings or fraud/news) given the magnitude (>15-20%), so I will avoid them per the \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves\" rule. I will stick to the \"Short the Rip\" candidates as they appear to be momentum spikes rather than gap-down disasters.\n\n * *Selection:*\n 1. BOY_CFD.UK (Massive spike)\n 2. RSW_CFD.UK (Large spike)\n 3. SPX_CFD.UK (Strong spike)\n 4. INVP_CFD.UK (Strong spike)\n 5. BBY_CFD.UK (Moderate spike, extended on MA200)\n\n * *Reviewing Sector Constraint:* \"max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)\".\n * Sector data is null for all. I cannot enforce this. I will select based on price action.\n\n5. **Construct Output:**\n * Format: JSON.\n * Fields: `symbol`, `mean_reversion_score`, `selection_reason`.\n * `rejected_common_reasons`: List of reasons for rejecting others (e.g., \"Binary event risk\", \"Low volatility\", \"Insufficient extension\", \"Data anomaly\").\n\n6. **Final Polish of Reasons:**\n * BOY: +24% daily gain, +28% above MA200, extreme extension suggests short-term pullback.\n * RSW: +18% daily gain, +36% above MA200, highly overextended.\n * SPX: +10.9% daily gain, +15% above MA200, strong upward deviation.\n * INVP: +8.5% daily gain, +17% above MA200, significant extension.\n * BBY: +5.2% daily gain, +33% above MA200, sustained uptrend deviation.\n\n * *Rejected:*\n * CBG, IWG, WLN, HIK, TRST, ATG, CAR: Extreme daily moves (>20%) or volatility likely indicating binary events/news.\n * EVD, DOM, HWDN: Insufficient deviation from mean.\n * US tickers (CAR, GNRC, HPP): Region mismatch (EU focus).\n\n7. **JSON Generation.**",
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"text": "1. **Analyze the Request:**\n * **Task:** `stage1_universe_scan`\n * **Region:** EU (Note: The input universe contains a mix of UK, DE, FR, BE, and some US symbols. I should prioritize EU symbols but can include US if they fit the strategy perfectly, though the prompt implies EU focus. The strategy rules say `universe_symbols_eu` is empty, implying I should scan the provided list which contains mostly EU tickers).\n * **Strategy:** `meanrev-v1` (Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion).\n * **Goal:** Select exactly 5 candidates for short-term mean reversion (2-10 days).\n * **Constraints:**\n * Max 5 candidates.\n * Avoid earnings within 5 days (data is null, so assume unknown but proceed with caution).\n * Avoid binary/event-driven moves (data is null, rely on price action).\n * Max 1 per sector (sector is null for all, so I can't enforce this strictly, but I should try to diversify by name/ticker if possible, or just ignore since data is missing).\n * Output ONLY valid JSON.\n * No narrative, no invented prices.\n\n2. **Analyze the Strategy (Mean Reversion):**\n * **Core Logic:** Look for assets that have moved significantly away from their mean (MA50/MA200) and are likely to snap back.\n * **Indicators:**\n * `distance_from_ma200_pct`: High positive values (overbought) or high negative values (oversold).\n * `distance_from_ma50_pct`: Similar logic, shorter term.\n * `change_1d_pct`: Large moves (up or down) often precede a reversion.\n * `volatility_20d_pct`: High volatility can mean mean reversion is riskier or more profitable, but extreme volatility (like 9000%) is usually bad data or binary events.\n * **Selection Criteria:**\n * *Long Reversion (Short the rip):* High positive distance from MA50/MA200, big positive 1-day change.\n * *Short Reversion (Buy the dip):* High negative distance from MA50/MA200, big negative 1-day change.\n * **Filtering:**\n * Exclude extreme outliers in volatility that suggest data errors (e.g., CAR_CFD.US with 9367% vol, ATG_CFD.UK with 2871% vol, WLN_CFD.FR with 433% vol).\n * Exclude US tickers if possible since the region is EU, unless they are the best fits. The prompt specifies `region: \"EU\"`. I will stick to EU tickers (UK, DE, FR, BE).\n\n3. **Scan the Universe (EU Tickers):**\n\n * *BOY_CFD.UK (Bodycote):* +24% 1d, +18% vs MA50, +28% vs MA200. Strong candidate for short reversion (shorting the spike). Vol 103%.\n * *EVD_CFD.DE (CTS Eventim):* +0.9% 1d, -5% vs MA50, -22% vs MA200. Not a strong signal today.\n * *SPX_CFD.UK (Spirax-Sarco):* +10.9% 1d, +8% vs MA50, +15% vs MA200. Good candidate for short reversion.\n * *ESNT_CFD.UK (Essentra):* +4.2% 1d, +9% vs MA50, +7% vs MA200. Moderate.\n * *UTG_CFD.UK (Unite Group):* +3.5% 1d, -3% vs MA50, -23% vs MA200. Mixed signals.\n * *INVP_CFD.UK (Investec):* +8.5% 1d, +9% vs MA50, +17% vs MA200. Good candidate for short reversion.\n * *SAFE_CFD.UK (Safestore):* Flat 1d, -2% vs MA50, +7% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *RHIM_CFD.UK (Rhi Magnesita):* -6.7% 1d, +0.9% vs MA50, -2% vs MA200. Vol 151%. High vol.\n * *CBG_CFD.UK (Close Brothers):* -26.6% 1d, -22% vs MA50, -13% vs MA200. Massive drop. Vol 169%. This looks like a binary event or bad news. \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves\". I should probably reject this despite the reversion potential because a 26% drop in one day is usually structural.\n * *RSW_CFD.UK (Renishaw):* +18% 1d, +14% vs MA50, +36% vs MA200. Strong candidate for short reversion.\n * *TPK_CFD.UK (Travis Perkins):* -1.2% 1d, -5% vs MA50, +0.5% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *HLAG_CFD.DE (Hapag-Lloyd):* -4.7% 1d, +3.7% vs MA50, +8% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *EMG_CFD.UK (Man Group):* +2.3% 1d, +15% vs MA50, +42% vs MA200. Strong uptrend, but extended.\n * *PZC_CFD.UK (PZ Cussons):* -13.8% 1d, +2.5% vs MA50, +2.9% vs MA200. Big drop, but near MA means. Vol 92%. Potential bounce candidate, but 13% drop is large.\n * *DOM_CFD.UK (Domino's):* -0.3% 1d, +1% vs MA50, -15% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *HWDN_CFD.UK (Howden):* -2.6% 1d, +0.6% vs MA50, +2.9% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IMI_CFD.UK (IMI):* +1.5% 1d, +2.5% vs MA50, +20% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *STJ_CFD.UK (St James's Place):* -14.8% 1d, -6.6% vs MA50, +4.6% vs MA200. Big drop. Vol 125%. Potential bounce.\n * *ABDN_CFD.UK (Aberdeen):* -7.7% 1d, -2.3% vs MA50, +6.4% vs MA200. Moderate drop.\n * *GMM_CFD.DE (Grammer):* +0.8% 1d, +0.7% vs MA50, +4.5% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *SMIN_CFD.UK (Smiths):* -3% 1d, -0.3% vs MA50, +9.8% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *BBY_CFD.UK (Balfour Beatty):* +5.2% 1d, +8.8% vs MA50, +33% vs MA200. Good candidate for short reversion.\n * *TRST_CFD.UK (Trustpilot):* +47% 1d, +12% vs MA50, -5% vs MA200. Vol 305%. This is a massive move. Likely binary event (takeover rumor or earnings miss/beat). Avoid.\n * *WEW_CFD.DE (Westwing):* -6.8% 1d, -7.4% vs MA50, +20% vs MA200. Moderate drop.\n * *FRES_CFD.UK (Fresnillo):* +3.7% 1d, -14% vs MA50, +23% vs MA200. Divergence between MA50 and MA200.\n * *KGF_CFD.UK (Kingfisher):* -16.5% 1d, -8% vs MA50, +1.7% vs MA200. Big drop. Vol 106%. Potential bounce.\n * *TESB_CFD.BE (Tessenderlo):* -14.7% 1d, -19% vs MA50, -18% vs MA200. Strong downtrend, big drop. Avoid binary.\n * *BEN_CFD.FR (Beneteau):* -2.8% 1d, -12% vs MA50, -18% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IPO_CFD.UK (IP Group):* -1.8% 1d, -2% vs MA50, +10% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *GROW_CFD.UK (Molten Ventures):* +1.5% 1d, -4% vs MA50, +22% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IWG_CFD.UK (IWG):* -26.7% 1d, -22% vs MA50, -17% vs MA200. Massive drop. Vol 154%. Likely binary event. Avoid.\n * *BYIT_CFD.UK (Bytes Tech):* -12.6% 1d, -14% vs MA50, -28% vs MA200. Strong downtrend.\n * *INH_CFD.DE (Indus):* -6.6% 1d, -10% vs MA50, +6.6% vs MA200. Moderate.\n * *WKP_CFD.UK (Workspace):* +3.6% 1d, +5.8% vs MA50, +1.8% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *HIK_CFD.UK (Hikma):* -19.5% 1d, -15% vs MA50, -28% vs MA200. Big drop. Vol 155%. Likely binary. Avoid.\n * *RHK_CFD.DE (Rhoen-Klinikum):* -3% 1d, -2.6% vs MA50, +0.7% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *IFX_CFD.DE (Infineon):* -0.8% 1d, -11% vs MA50, +0.5% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *PNE3_CFD.DE (PNE):* -7.2% 1d, -15% vs MA50, -36% vs MA200. Strong downtrend.\n * *GXI_CFD.DE (Gerresheimer):* -1.1% 1d, -4.9% vs MA50, -37% vs MA200. Strong downtrend.\n * *GAW_CFD.UK:* +6.2% 1d, +5.4% vs MA50, +9.8% vs MA200. Moderate.\n * *HOT_CFD.DE (Hochtief):* -3.1% 1d, -1% vs MA50, +34% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *STM_CFD.DE (Stabilus):* -0.2% 1d, -13% vs MA50, -27% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *WLN_CFD.FR (Worldline):* -15% 1d, -76% vs MA50, -87% vs MA200. Vol 433%. This is a disaster stock. Avoid.\n * *ROR_CFD.UK (Rotork):* -7.8% 1d, -7.4% vs MA50, -3.4% vs MA200. Moderate drop.\n * *UKW_CFD.UK (Greencoat):* +1.6% 1d, -2.9% vs MA50, -9.7% vs MA200. Weak.\n * *FII_CFD.FR (Lisi):* +4.1% 1d, -5.3% vs MA50, +7.8% vs MA200. Weak.\n\n4. **Select Top 5 Candidates (Mean Reversion Focus):**\n\n * *Candidate 1: BOY_CFD.UK (Bodycote)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +24% 1-day change, +18% vs MA50, +28% vs MA200. Very extended.\n * Score: 90.\n\n * *Candidate 2: RSW_CFD.UK (Renishaw)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +18% 1-day change, +14% vs MA50, +36% vs MA200. Highly extended.\n * Score: 88.\n\n * *Candidate 3: SPX_CFD.UK (Spirax-Sarco)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +10.9% 1-day change, +8% vs MA50, +15% vs MA200. Strong move up.\n * Score: 82.\n\n * *Candidate 4: INVP_CFD.UK (Investec)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +8.5% 1-day change, +9% vs MA50, +17% vs MA200. Extended.\n * Score: 80.\n\n * *Candidate 5: BBY_CFD.UK (Balfour Beatty)*\n * Signal: Short Reversion.\n * Reason: +5.2% 1-day change, +8% vs MA50, +33% vs MA200. Good extension.\n * Score: 75.\n\n * *Alternative Long Candidates (Buying the dip):*\n * STJ_CFD.UK (-14.8% 1d, -6% vs MA50). Vol 125%. A bit risky.\n * KGF_CFD.UK (-16.5% 1d, -8% vs MA50). Vol 106%.\n * PZC_CFD.UK (-13.8% 1d, +2.5% vs MA50). This is interesting. It dropped hard but is still above the MA50. Might be a dead cat bounce.\n * ABDN_CFD.UK (-7.7% 1d, -2% vs MA50). Decent drop, close to mean.\n\n * *Decision:* The market seems to have a lot of strong upward spikes (BOY, RSW, SPX, INVP). These are cleaner \"Short the Rip\" mean reversion setups. The large drops (CBG, IWG, WLN, HIK) are likely binary events (earnings or fraud/news) given the magnitude (>15-20%), so I will avoid them per the \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves\" rule. I will stick to the \"Short the Rip\" candidates as they appear to be momentum spikes rather than gap-down disasters.\n\n * *Selection:*\n 1. BOY_CFD.UK (Massive spike)\n 2. RSW_CFD.UK (Large spike)\n 3. SPX_CFD.UK (Strong spike)\n 4. INVP_CFD.UK (Strong spike)\n 5. BBY_CFD.UK (Moderate spike, extended on MA200)\n\n * *Reviewing Sector Constraint:* \"max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)\".\n * Sector data is null for all. I cannot enforce this. I will select based on price action.\n\n5. **Construct Output:**\n * Format: JSON.\n * Fields: `symbol`, `mean_reversion_score`, `selection_reason`.\n * `rejected_common_reasons`: List of reasons for rejecting others (e.g., \"Binary event risk\", \"Low volatility\", \"Insufficient extension\", \"Data anomaly\").\n\n6. **Final Polish of Reasons:**\n * BOY: +24% daily gain, +28% above MA200, extreme extension suggests short-term pullback.\n * RSW: +18% daily gain, +36% above MA200, highly overextended.\n * SPX: +10.9% daily gain, +15% above MA200, strong upward deviation.\n * INVP: +8.5% daily gain, +17% above MA200, significant extension.\n * BBY: +5.2% daily gain, +33% above MA200, sustained uptrend deviation.\n\n * *Rejected:*\n * CBG, IWG, WLN, HIK, TRST, ATG, CAR: Extreme daily moves (>20%) or volatility likely indicating binary events/news.\n * EVD, DOM, HWDN: Insufficient deviation from mean.\n * US tickers (CAR, GNRC, HPP): Region mismatch (EU focus).\n\n7. **JSON Generation.**",
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