Arena run #828

You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).

{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "name": "CREST NICHOLSON HOLDINGS", "sector": "", "last_price": 167.8, "change_1d_pct": 24.85119047619049, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.2720261375977815, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.82963155418549, "volatility_20d_pct": 158.46878099582966, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "name": "MARSHALLS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 179.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.052451539338662, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -18.41965657865713, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.539832012082234, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.90810964969117, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LMP_CFD.UK", "name": "LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 214.0, "change_1d_pct": 11.57455683003128, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.507879494597773, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.77384329331672, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.89150861607771, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ESNT_CFD.UK", "name": "ESSENTRA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 108.4, "change_1d_pct": 4.230769230769238, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.40452119530135, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.771484932749797, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.9832071461764, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAG_CFD.UK", "name": "PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 852.5, "change_1d_pct": -3.399433427762044, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.3404962254783492, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.699141440891915, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.52779356208148, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "INVP_CFD.UK", "name": "INVESTEC PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 623.5, "change_1d_pct": 8.529155787641418, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 17.34715626999408, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.569618971869698, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.97154585310399, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 372.74, "change_1d_pct": -26.625984251968504, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.365429078084645, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.129222788055436, "volatility_20d_pct": 169.0552301316783, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 25.72, "change_1d_pct": 2.9623698959167166, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.132760074308242, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.327577202351844, "volatility_20d_pct": 232.19808875565576, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BT_CFD.UK", "name": "BT GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 217.3, "change_1d_pct": 4.521404521404526, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.48931662093067, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.274676813493189, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.38992239372133, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "name": "IWG PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 189.6, "change_1d_pct": -24.09927942353883, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.798015594910993, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.03351041019402, "volatility_20d_pct": 148.96998448946707, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, 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"days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MNG_CFD.UK", "name": "M&G PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 279.6, "change_1d_pct": -11.937007874015737, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 3.6912374599800346, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.6737144159107595, "volatility_20d_pct": 91.15993052698488, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "name": "PZ CUSSONS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 77.7, "change_1d_pct": -13.858093126385807, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.9808107121248817, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.5905093876257723, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.73478468401771, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LTA_CFD.FR", "name": "ALTAMIR", "sector": "", "last_price": 26.58, "change_1d_pct": -3.3102946526009425, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.386926289741979, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.995167107780642, "volatility_20d_pct": 78.6048870937708, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 217.0, "change_1d_pct": -21.148255813953487, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.81606625159202, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.48311196636071, "volatility_20d_pct": 241.3119670937803, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HWDN_CFD.UK", "name": "HOWDEN JOINERY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 843.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.686229466563539, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.9144756901175572, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.6796292983215046, "volatility_20d_pct": 44.16384759940265, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK", "name": "LANCASHIRE HOLDINGS LTD", "sector": "", "last_price": 611.0, "change_1d_pct": -7.424242424242422, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.4068944205071867, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.396619125545266, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.32350801127552, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": 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"rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}

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          "content": "{\n  \"selected_stocks\": [\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"CRST_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 95,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme 1-day gain of 24.85% and 17.83% above MA50 suggests high probability of pullback.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"MAB_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 85,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Strong 1-day gain of 14.38% and 10.94% above MA50 indicates overbought conditions.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"HMSO_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 84,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Significant 1-day gain of 14.13% and 10.01% above MA50 signals short-term overextension.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"INF_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 82,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Sharp 1-day drop of 14.49% and 13.85% below MA50 suggests",
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          "reasoning": "The user wants me to act as an Arena strategy executor for a \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)\" strategy.\nThe task is `stage1_universe_scan`.\nThe region is \"US\", but the provided universe contains a mix of UK (.UK), France (.FR), Germany (.DE), Portugal (.PT), and US (.US) symbols. The strategy rules specify `universe_symbols_us` is empty, implying I should scan the provided universe which seems to be a mix, but I must strictly follow the selection rules.\n\n**Strategy Rules:**\n- `max_positions`: 10\n- `max_buys_per_run`: 2\n- `avoid_overtrading`: true\n- `max_sells_per_run`: 2\n- `max_gross_leverage`: 3.0\n- `fixed_position_size`: 3000.0\n- `universe_symbols_eu`: []\n- `universe_symbols_us`: []\n\n**Selection Rules:**\n- `horizon`: 2-10 trading days\n- `target`: short-term mean reversion in liquid equities\n- `constraints`:\n    - Select exactly 5 candidates.\n    - Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known).\n    - Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known).\n    - Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown).\n\n**Data Analysis:**\nI need to look for stocks that are currently extended away from their mean (likely MA50 or MA200) and have recently experienced a sharp move (high volatility or large daily change) that suggests a potential pullback (mean reversion). Since the strategy is \"Mean Reversion\", I am looking for stocks that are:\n1.  Oversold (far below MA50/MA200) and might bounce back up.\n2.  Overbought (far above MA50/MA200) and might pull back down.\n\nHowever, usually, \"Mean Reversion\" in this context often implies buying the dip (oversold) or shorting the rip (overbought). Given the constraints, I need to select 5 candidates.\n\nLet's analyze the provided universe. Note that `sector` is empty for all, so I cannot enforce sector concentration rules strictly based on sector, but I should try to pick diverse names if possible, or just pick the best technical setups.\n\n**Candidate Filtering:**\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: Change +24.85%, Dist MA50 +17.8%, Vol 158%. This is a massive rip. Good for short mean reversion.\n2.  **MSLH_CFD.UK**: Change +2%, Dist MA200 -18%, Dist MA50 +4.5%. Mixed signals.\n3.  **LMP_CFD.UK**: Change +11.5%, Dist MA50 +10.7%. Overbought.\n4.  **ESNT_CFD.UK**: Change +4.2%, Dist MA50 +9.7%. Mildly overbought.\n5.  **PAG_CFD.UK**: Change -3.4%, Dist MA50 +0.7%. Neutral.\n6.  **INVP_CFD.UK**: Change +8.5%, Dist MA50 +9.5%. Overbought.\n7.  **CBG_CFD.UK**: Change -26.6%, Dist MA50 -22.1%, Vol 169%. Massive crash. Good for long mean reversion (dead cat bounce) or risky if binary event.\n8.  **DLN_CFD.UK**: Change +10.4%, Dist MA50 +12.1%. Overbought.\n9.  **MCG_CFD.UK**: Change +2.9%, Dist MA50 +8.3%. Mildly overbought.\n10. **BT_CFD.UK**: Change +4.5%, Dist MA50 +10.2%. Overbought.\n11. **IWG_CFD.UK**: Change -24%, Dist MA50 -17%, Vol 148%. Big crash. Candidate for long reversion.\n12. **MKS_CFD.UK**: Change -7.4%, Dist MA50 -2.7%. Mild pullback.\n13. **EMG_CFD.UK**: Change +2.3%, Dist MA50 +15.5%. Overbought.\n14. **MNG_CFD.UK**: Change -11.9%, Dist MA50 -7.6%. Oversold.\n15. **PZC_CFD.UK**: Change -13.8%, Dist MA50 +2.5%. Sharp drop but still above MA50. Reversion to MA50?\n16. **LTA_CFD.FR**: Change -3.3%, Dist MA50 -7%. Mildly oversold.\n17. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: Change -21%, Dist MA50 -5.4%, Vol 241%. Big drop.\n18. **HWDN_CFD.UK**: Change -2.6%, Dist MA50 +0.6%. Neutral.\n19. **LRE_CFD.UK**: Change -7.4%, Dist MA50 -6.4%. Oversold.\n20. **IMI_CFD.UK**: Change +1.5%, Dist MA50 +2.7%. Neutral.\n21. **BME_CFD.UK**: Change -5.1%, Dist MA200 -22%, Dist MA50 -2.8%. Long term oversold, short term neutral.\n22. **DCC_CFD.UK**: Change +4.1%, Dist MA50 -1.7%. Neutral.\n23. **DOCS_CFD.UK**: Change -1.5%, Dist MA50 -12%. Oversold.\n24. **ABDN_CFD.UK**: Change -7.7%, Dist MA50 -2.3%. Mild.\n25. **LIO_CFD.UK**: Change +7.7%, Dist MA50 +4.4%. Overbought.\n26. **BBY_CFD.UK**: Change +5.2%, Dist MA50 +8.8%. Overbought.\n27. **AB_CFD.FR**: Change -3.9%, Dist MA50 -11.8%. Oversold.\n28. **OSB_CFD.UK**: Change -12.8%, Dist MA50 -8.4%. Oversold.\n29. **MAB_CFD.UK**: Change +14.3%, Dist MA50 +10.9%. Overbought.\n30. **KGF_CFD.UK**: Change -14.1%, Dist MA50 -4.7%. Sharp drop.\n31. **HLMA_CFD.UK**: Change -5.4%, Dist MA50 -0.8%. Neutral.\n32. **DOM_CFD.UK**: Change +4.1%, Dist MA50 +4.4%. Mildly overbought.\n33. **IPO_CFD.UK**: Change -1.8%, Dist MA50 -2%. Neutral.\n34. **BTRW_CFD.UK**: Change -33%, Dist MA50 -31.8%, Vol 128%. Massive crash. High risk but extreme mean reversion candidate.\n35. **GROW_CFD.UK**: Change +1.5%, Dist MA50 -4.2%. Neutral.\n36. **BYIT_CFD.UK**: Change -12.6%, Dist MA50 -14.3%. Oversold.\n37. **HIK_CFD.UK**: Change -18.9%, Dist MA50 -15.4%. Oversold.\n38. **HHFA_CFD.DE**: Change 0%, Dist MA50 +0.3%. Flat.\n39. **INF_CFD.UK**: Change -14.4%, Dist MA50 -13.8%. Oversold.\n40. **ATG_CFD.UK**: Change +12%, Dist MA50 +5.8%. Overbought.\n41. **BLDR_CFD.US**: Change +0.9%, Dist MA50 -22.8%. Deeply oversold.\n42. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: Change +14.1%, Dist MA50 +10%. Overbought.\n43. **NXT_CFD.UK**: Change -6.4%, Dist MA50 -7.6%. Oversold.\n44. **BRNK_CFD.DE**: Change -10.9%, Dist MA50 -25.2%. Oversold.\n45. **QDT_CFD.FR**: Change 0%, Dist MA50 -11.2%. Oversold.\n46. **KSS_CFD.US**: Change +6.7%, Dist MA50 -23.3%. Bounce attempt from deep oversold.\n47. **OVH_CFD.FR**: Change -2.9%, Dist MA50 -6.8%. Mildly oversold.\n48. **IPR_CFD.PT**: Change -3.6%, Dist MA50 -3.1%. Mild.\n49. **DG_CFD.US**: Change -4.3%, Dist MA50 -16.5%. Oversold.\n50. **AUTO_CFD.UK**: Change -38.6%, Dist MA50 -31.8%, Vol 130%. Massive crash.\n\n**Selection for Mean Reversion:**\nI need to pick 5. I will look for extreme deviations from the MA50 or MA200 combined with high volatility or large daily changes.\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily change, +17.8% from MA50. Very extended. High probability of pullback. (Short candidate)\n2.  **BTRW_CFD.UK**: -33% daily change, -31.8% from MA50. Extreme crash. (Long candidate)\n3.  **AUTO_CFD.UK**: -38.6% daily change, -31.8% from MA50. Extreme crash. (Long candidate)\n4.  **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.6% daily change, -22.1% from MA50. Extreme crash. (Long candidate)\n5.  **HIK_CFD.UK**: -18.9% daily change, -15.4% from MA50. Significant drop. (Long candidate)\n\nLet's check if there are any better \"Overbought\" candidates to balance or if I should stick to the crashes. The strategy is \"Mean Reversion\", which works both ways, but crashes often offer sharper bounces (dead cat bounce) or are too risky (binary events). However, the prompt says \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)\". A 30-40% drop in one day is almost certainly a binary event (earnings warning, regulatory issue, etc.). I should be careful with BTRW, AUTO, CBG.\n\nLet's look for less extreme but still significant deviations.\n\n**Revised Selection:**\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily change. Very extended. High score for short reversion.\n2.  **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.3% daily change, +10.9% from MA50. Strong overbought.\n3.  **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.1% daily change, +10% from MA50. Strong overbought.\n4.  **ATG_CFD.UK**: +12% daily change, +5.8% from MA50. Overbought.\n5.  **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.4% daily change, +12.1% from MA50. Overbought.\n\nWait, I should probably mix long and short or pick the strongest setups regardless of direction. The strategy doesn't specify direction, just \"mean reversion\".\nLet's look at the \"Oversold\" side again, avoiding the -30% drops which are likely binary.\n\n**Oversold Candidates (avoiding -20%+ daily drops):**\n- **KGF_CFD.UK**: -14.1% daily, -4.7% from MA50. Sharp drop.\n- **PZC_CFD.UK**: -13.8% daily, +2.5% from MA50. Sharp drop, still above mean.\n- **OSB_CFD.UK**: -12.8% daily, -8.4% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n- **BYIT_CFD.UK**: -12.6% daily, -14.3% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n- **MNG_CFD.UK**: -11.9% daily, -7.6% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n- **INF_CFD.UK**: -14.4% daily, -13.8% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n\n**Overbought Candidates:**\n- **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily, +17.8% from MA50. Extreme.\n- **LMP_CFD.UK**: +11.5% daily, +10.7% from MA50.\n- **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.3% daily, +10.9% from MA50.\n- **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.1% daily, +10% from MA50.\n\n**Selection Logic:**\nI will select the 5 stocks with the most extreme deviations from the mean (MA50) combined with significant daily momentum, while trying to avoid the -30% crashers (likely binary events).\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily change. Distance MA50: +17.83%. Volatility: 158%. (Short)\n2.  **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.38% daily change. Distance MA50: +10.94%. Volatility: 118%. (Short)\n3.  **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.13% daily change. Distance MA50: +10.01%. Volatility: 87%. (Short)\n4.  **INF_CFD.UK**: -14.49% daily change. Distance MA50: -13.85%. Volatility: 89%. (Long)\n5.  **BYIT_CFD.UK**: -12.67% daily change. Distance MA50: -14.35%. Volatility: 87%. (Long)\n\nLet's double check sectors. They are all unknown/empty, so I can't diversify by sector. I will proceed with these 5.\n\n**Scoring (0-100):**\n- **CRST**: 95 (Extreme extension)\n- **MAB**: 85 (Strong extension)\n- **HMSO**: 84 (Strong extension)\n- **INF**: 82 (Strong drop)\n- **BYIT**: 80 (Strong drop)\n\n**Reasons:**\n- CRST: Extreme 1-day gain (+24.8%) and distance from MA50 (+17.8%).\n- MAB: Strong 1-day gain (+14.4%) and distance from MA50 (+10.9%).\n- HMSO: Strong 1-day gain (+14.1%) and distance from MA50 (+10.0%).\n- INF: Sharp 1-day drop (-14.5%) and distance from MA50 (-13.8%).\n- BYIT: Sharp 1-day drop (-12.7%) and distance from MA50 (-14.3%).\n\n**Rejected Common Reasons:**\n- Avoided stocks with >20% daily drops (BTRW, AUTO, CBG) due to potential binary event risk.\n- Avoided stocks with low volatility or small daily changes.\n- Avoided stocks with mixed signals (e.g., positive daily change but negative MA distance).\n\n**Final Check:**\n- Select exactly 5 candidates? Yes.\n- Avoid earnings? Unknown for all, so N/A.\n- Avoid binary moves? Avoided the -30% ones.\n- Sector concentration? Unknown sectors.\n\nConstructing JSON.\n\n```json\n{\n  \"selected_stocks\": [\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"CRST_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 95,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme 1-day gain of 24.85% and 17.83% above MA50 suggests high probability of pullback.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"MAB_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 85,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Strong 1-day gain of 14.38% and 10.94% above MA50 indicates overbought conditions.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"HMSO_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 84,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Significant 1-day gain of 14.13% and 10.01% above MA50 signals short-term overextension.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"INF_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 82,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Sharp 1-day drop of 14.49% and 13.85% below MA50 suggests oversold bounce potential.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"BYIT_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 80,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Notable 1-day decline of 12.67% and 14.35% below MA50 indicates mean reversion opportunity.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"rejected_common_reasons\": [\n    \"Avoided stocks with >20% daily drops (e.g., BTRW_CFD.UK, AUTO_CFD.UK, CBG_CFD.UK) due to high binary event risk.\",\n    \"Excluded stocks with low daily price changes or minimal deviation from moving averages.\",\n    \"Ignored stocks with conflicting technical signals (e.g., positive price action but below MA50).\"\n  ]\n}\n```",
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            {
              "text": "The user wants me to act as an Arena strategy executor for a \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)\" strategy.\nThe task is `stage1_universe_scan`.\nThe region is \"US\", but the provided universe contains a mix of UK (.UK), France (.FR), Germany (.DE), Portugal (.PT), and US (.US) symbols. The strategy rules specify `universe_symbols_us` is empty, implying I should scan the provided universe which seems to be a mix, but I must strictly follow the selection rules.\n\n**Strategy Rules:**\n- `max_positions`: 10\n- `max_buys_per_run`: 2\n- `avoid_overtrading`: true\n- `max_sells_per_run`: 2\n- `max_gross_leverage`: 3.0\n- `fixed_position_size`: 3000.0\n- `universe_symbols_eu`: []\n- `universe_symbols_us`: []\n\n**Selection Rules:**\n- `horizon`: 2-10 trading days\n- `target`: short-term mean reversion in liquid equities\n- `constraints`:\n    - Select exactly 5 candidates.\n    - Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known).\n    - Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known).\n    - Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown).\n\n**Data Analysis:**\nI need to look for stocks that are currently extended away from their mean (likely MA50 or MA200) and have recently experienced a sharp move (high volatility or large daily change) that suggests a potential pullback (mean reversion). Since the strategy is \"Mean Reversion\", I am looking for stocks that are:\n1.  Oversold (far below MA50/MA200) and might bounce back up.\n2.  Overbought (far above MA50/MA200) and might pull back down.\n\nHowever, usually, \"Mean Reversion\" in this context often implies buying the dip (oversold) or shorting the rip (overbought). Given the constraints, I need to select 5 candidates.\n\nLet's analyze the provided universe. Note that `sector` is empty for all, so I cannot enforce sector concentration rules strictly based on sector, but I should try to pick diverse names if possible, or just pick the best technical setups.\n\n**Candidate Filtering:**\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: Change +24.85%, Dist MA50 +17.8%, Vol 158%. This is a massive rip. Good for short mean reversion.\n2.  **MSLH_CFD.UK**: Change +2%, Dist MA200 -18%, Dist MA50 +4.5%. Mixed signals.\n3.  **LMP_CFD.UK**: Change +11.5%, Dist MA50 +10.7%. Overbought.\n4.  **ESNT_CFD.UK**: Change +4.2%, Dist MA50 +9.7%. Mildly overbought.\n5.  **PAG_CFD.UK**: Change -3.4%, Dist MA50 +0.7%. Neutral.\n6.  **INVP_CFD.UK**: Change +8.5%, Dist MA50 +9.5%. Overbought.\n7.  **CBG_CFD.UK**: Change -26.6%, Dist MA50 -22.1%, Vol 169%. Massive crash. Good for long mean reversion (dead cat bounce) or risky if binary event.\n8.  **DLN_CFD.UK**: Change +10.4%, Dist MA50 +12.1%. Overbought.\n9.  **MCG_CFD.UK**: Change +2.9%, Dist MA50 +8.3%. Mildly overbought.\n10. **BT_CFD.UK**: Change +4.5%, Dist MA50 +10.2%. Overbought.\n11. **IWG_CFD.UK**: Change -24%, Dist MA50 -17%, Vol 148%. Big crash. Candidate for long reversion.\n12. **MKS_CFD.UK**: Change -7.4%, Dist MA50 -2.7%. Mild pullback.\n13. **EMG_CFD.UK**: Change +2.3%, Dist MA50 +15.5%. Overbought.\n14. **MNG_CFD.UK**: Change -11.9%, Dist MA50 -7.6%. Oversold.\n15. **PZC_CFD.UK**: Change -13.8%, Dist MA50 +2.5%. Sharp drop but still above MA50. Reversion to MA50?\n16. **LTA_CFD.FR**: Change -3.3%, Dist MA50 -7%. Mildly oversold.\n17. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: Change -21%, Dist MA50 -5.4%, Vol 241%. Big drop.\n18. **HWDN_CFD.UK**: Change -2.6%, Dist MA50 +0.6%. Neutral.\n19. **LRE_CFD.UK**: Change -7.4%, Dist MA50 -6.4%. Oversold.\n20. **IMI_CFD.UK**: Change +1.5%, Dist MA50 +2.7%. Neutral.\n21. **BME_CFD.UK**: Change -5.1%, Dist MA200 -22%, Dist MA50 -2.8%. Long term oversold, short term neutral.\n22. **DCC_CFD.UK**: Change +4.1%, Dist MA50 -1.7%. Neutral.\n23. **DOCS_CFD.UK**: Change -1.5%, Dist MA50 -12%. Oversold.\n24. **ABDN_CFD.UK**: Change -7.7%, Dist MA50 -2.3%. Mild.\n25. **LIO_CFD.UK**: Change +7.7%, Dist MA50 +4.4%. Overbought.\n26. **BBY_CFD.UK**: Change +5.2%, Dist MA50 +8.8%. Overbought.\n27. **AB_CFD.FR**: Change -3.9%, Dist MA50 -11.8%. Oversold.\n28. **OSB_CFD.UK**: Change -12.8%, Dist MA50 -8.4%. Oversold.\n29. **MAB_CFD.UK**: Change +14.3%, Dist MA50 +10.9%. Overbought.\n30. **KGF_CFD.UK**: Change -14.1%, Dist MA50 -4.7%. Sharp drop.\n31. **HLMA_CFD.UK**: Change -5.4%, Dist MA50 -0.8%. Neutral.\n32. **DOM_CFD.UK**: Change +4.1%, Dist MA50 +4.4%. Mildly overbought.\n33. **IPO_CFD.UK**: Change -1.8%, Dist MA50 -2%. Neutral.\n34. **BTRW_CFD.UK**: Change -33%, Dist MA50 -31.8%, Vol 128%. Massive crash. High risk but extreme mean reversion candidate.\n35. **GROW_CFD.UK**: Change +1.5%, Dist MA50 -4.2%. Neutral.\n36. **BYIT_CFD.UK**: Change -12.6%, Dist MA50 -14.3%. Oversold.\n37. **HIK_CFD.UK**: Change -18.9%, Dist MA50 -15.4%. Oversold.\n38. **HHFA_CFD.DE**: Change 0%, Dist MA50 +0.3%. Flat.\n39. **INF_CFD.UK**: Change -14.4%, Dist MA50 -13.8%. Oversold.\n40. **ATG_CFD.UK**: Change +12%, Dist MA50 +5.8%. Overbought.\n41. **BLDR_CFD.US**: Change +0.9%, Dist MA50 -22.8%. Deeply oversold.\n42. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: Change +14.1%, Dist MA50 +10%. Overbought.\n43. **NXT_CFD.UK**: Change -6.4%, Dist MA50 -7.6%. Oversold.\n44. **BRNK_CFD.DE**: Change -10.9%, Dist MA50 -25.2%. Oversold.\n45. **QDT_CFD.FR**: Change 0%, Dist MA50 -11.2%. Oversold.\n46. **KSS_CFD.US**: Change +6.7%, Dist MA50 -23.3%. Bounce attempt from deep oversold.\n47. **OVH_CFD.FR**: Change -2.9%, Dist MA50 -6.8%. Mildly oversold.\n48. **IPR_CFD.PT**: Change -3.6%, Dist MA50 -3.1%. Mild.\n49. **DG_CFD.US**: Change -4.3%, Dist MA50 -16.5%. Oversold.\n50. **AUTO_CFD.UK**: Change -38.6%, Dist MA50 -31.8%, Vol 130%. Massive crash.\n\n**Selection for Mean Reversion:**\nI need to pick 5. I will look for extreme deviations from the MA50 or MA200 combined with high volatility or large daily changes.\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily change, +17.8% from MA50. Very extended. High probability of pullback. (Short candidate)\n2.  **BTRW_CFD.UK**: -33% daily change, -31.8% from MA50. Extreme crash. (Long candidate)\n3.  **AUTO_CFD.UK**: -38.6% daily change, -31.8% from MA50. Extreme crash. (Long candidate)\n4.  **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.6% daily change, -22.1% from MA50. Extreme crash. (Long candidate)\n5.  **HIK_CFD.UK**: -18.9% daily change, -15.4% from MA50. Significant drop. (Long candidate)\n\nLet's check if there are any better \"Overbought\" candidates to balance or if I should stick to the crashes. The strategy is \"Mean Reversion\", which works both ways, but crashes often offer sharper bounces (dead cat bounce) or are too risky (binary events). However, the prompt says \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)\". A 30-40% drop in one day is almost certainly a binary event (earnings warning, regulatory issue, etc.). I should be careful with BTRW, AUTO, CBG.\n\nLet's look for less extreme but still significant deviations.\n\n**Revised Selection:**\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily change. Very extended. High score for short reversion.\n2.  **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.3% daily change, +10.9% from MA50. Strong overbought.\n3.  **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.1% daily change, +10% from MA50. Strong overbought.\n4.  **ATG_CFD.UK**: +12% daily change, +5.8% from MA50. Overbought.\n5.  **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.4% daily change, +12.1% from MA50. Overbought.\n\nWait, I should probably mix long and short or pick the strongest setups regardless of direction. The strategy doesn't specify direction, just \"mean reversion\".\nLet's look at the \"Oversold\" side again, avoiding the -30% drops which are likely binary.\n\n**Oversold Candidates (avoiding -20%+ daily drops):**\n- **KGF_CFD.UK**: -14.1% daily, -4.7% from MA50. Sharp drop.\n- **PZC_CFD.UK**: -13.8% daily, +2.5% from MA50. Sharp drop, still above mean.\n- **OSB_CFD.UK**: -12.8% daily, -8.4% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n- **BYIT_CFD.UK**: -12.6% daily, -14.3% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n- **MNG_CFD.UK**: -11.9% daily, -7.6% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n- **INF_CFD.UK**: -14.4% daily, -13.8% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n\n**Overbought Candidates:**\n- **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily, +17.8% from MA50. Extreme.\n- **LMP_CFD.UK**: +11.5% daily, +10.7% from MA50.\n- **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.3% daily, +10.9% from MA50.\n- **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.1% daily, +10% from MA50.\n\n**Selection Logic:**\nI will select the 5 stocks with the most extreme deviations from the mean (MA50) combined with significant daily momentum, while trying to avoid the -30% crashers (likely binary events).\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily change. Distance MA50: +17.83%. Volatility: 158%. (Short)\n2.  **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.38% daily change. Distance MA50: +10.94%. Volatility: 118%. (Short)\n3.  **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.13% daily change. Distance MA50: +10.01%. Volatility: 87%. (Short)\n4.  **INF_CFD.UK**: -14.49% daily change. Distance MA50: -13.85%. Volatility: 89%. (Long)\n5.  **BYIT_CFD.UK**: -12.67% daily change. Distance MA50: -14.35%. Volatility: 87%. (Long)\n\nLet's double check sectors. They are all unknown/empty, so I can't diversify by sector. I will proceed with these 5.\n\n**Scoring (0-100):**\n- **CRST**: 95 (Extreme extension)\n- **MAB**: 85 (Strong extension)\n- **HMSO**: 84 (Strong extension)\n- **INF**: 82 (Strong drop)\n- **BYIT**: 80 (Strong drop)\n\n**Reasons:**\n- CRST: Extreme 1-day gain (+24.8%) and distance from MA50 (+17.8%).\n- MAB: Strong 1-day gain (+14.4%) and distance from MA50 (+10.9%).\n- HMSO: Strong 1-day gain (+14.1%) and distance from MA50 (+10.0%).\n- INF: Sharp 1-day drop (-14.5%) and distance from MA50 (-13.8%).\n- BYIT: Sharp 1-day drop (-12.7%) and distance from MA50 (-14.3%).\n\n**Rejected Common Reasons:**\n- Avoided stocks with >20% daily drops (BTRW, AUTO, CBG) due to potential binary event risk.\n- Avoided stocks with low volatility or small daily changes.\n- Avoided stocks with mixed signals (e.g., positive daily change but negative MA distance).\n\n**Final Check:**\n- Select exactly 5 candidates? Yes.\n- Avoid earnings? Unknown for all, so N/A.\n- Avoid binary moves? Avoided the -30% ones.\n- Sector concentration? Unknown sectors.\n\nConstructing JSON.\n\n```json\n{\n  \"selected_stocks\": [\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"CRST_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 95,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme 1-day gain of 24.85% and 17.83% above MA50 suggests high probability of pullback.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"MAB_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 85,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Strong 1-day gain of 14.38% and 10.94% above MA50 indicates overbought conditions.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"HMSO_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 84,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Significant 1-day gain of 14.13% and 10.01% above MA50 signals short-term overextension.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"INF_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 82,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Sharp 1-day drop of 14.49% and 13.85% below MA50 suggests oversold bounce potential.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"BYIT_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 80,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Notable 1-day decline of 12.67% and 14.35% below MA50 indicates mean reversion opportunity.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"rejected_common_reasons\": [\n    \"Avoided stocks with >20% daily drops (e.g., BTRW_CFD.UK, AUTO_CFD.UK, CBG_CFD.UK) due to high binary event risk.\",\n    \"Excluded stocks with low daily price changes or minimal deviation from moving averages.\",\n    \"Ignored stocks with conflicting technical signals (e.g., positive price action but below MA50).\"\n  ]\n}\n```",
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        "finish_reason": "length",
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    "created": 1774375988,
    "provider": "Together",
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}

You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.

{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US", "qty": 12.025494047380446, "avg_price": 249.47, "last_price": 239.0, "unrealized_pnl": -125.90692267607326, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T18:06:47.909233+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.2137531068765535, "avg_price": 482.8, "last_price": 482.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.453, "last_price": 0.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T18:07:22.382508+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.048505660782315, "avg_price": 372.74, "last_price": 342.92, "unrealized_pnl": -240.00643880452856, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.5416238437821173, "avg_price": 1945.9999999999998, "last_price": 1832.5, "unrealized_pnl": -174.97430626926996, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 349.425, "last_price": 374.67, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 47.4, "last_price": 52.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FICO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1127.4099999999999, "last_price": 1160.795, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T18:06:47.909233+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 400.6, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.3529411764705883, "avg_price": 1275.0, "last_price": 1236.0, "unrealized_pnl": -91.76470588235294, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "qty": 16.216216216216218, "avg_price": 185.0, "last_price": 177.0, "unrealized_pnl": -129.72972972972974, "opened_at": "2026-03-17T10:04:29.123574+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 13.824884792626728, "avg_price": 217.0, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": -175.5760368663593, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 205.8, "last_price": 152.7, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 442.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 34.98, "last_price": 34.98, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 134.3, "last_price": 139.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE", "qty": 405.51500405515003, "avg_price": 7.398000000000001, "last_price": 6.772, "unrealized_pnl": -253.85239253852404, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.792207792207792, "avg_price": 385.0, "last_price": 338.75, "unrealized_pnl": -360.38961038961037, "opened_at": "2026-03-17T10:04:29.123574+00:00"}, {"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1.73, "last_price": 1.83, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T18:07:22.382508+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 18.778167250876315, "avg_price": 159.76, "last_price": 142.16, "unrealized_pnl": -330.49574361542307, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T17:33:48.338981+00:00"}], "candidates": [], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}

{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Holding for mean reversion. Drawdown is moderate (-4%).",
        "symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position is flat. Holding for potential mean reversion movement.",
        "symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Holding for mean reversion. Drawdown is present (-6.4%).",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Holding for mean reversion. Drawdown is present (-5.8%).",
        "symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Holding for mean reversion. Drawdown is moderate (-3%).",
        "symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Holding for mean reversion. Drawdown is present (-4.3%).",
        "symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Holding for mean reversion. Drawdown is present (-5.8%).",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Holding for mean reversion. Drawdown is significant (-8.5%) but prioritized higher loss positions for sale.",
        "symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Leverage breach. Current gross leverage (~3.46) exceeds max (3.0) due to drawdowns. Selling largest loser to reduce exposure and protect equity.",
        "symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Leverage breach. Current gross leverage (~3.46) exceeds max (3.0) due to drawdowns. Selling largest loser to reduce exposure and protect equity.",
        "symbol": "ZS_CFD.US"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is currently over-leveraged (approx 3.46x gross exposure vs 3.0x limit) due to aggregate unrealized losses reducing equity while gross exposure remains high. To comply with risk constraints, the two positions with the highest unrealized losses (VTY and ZS) are being closed to reduce gross exposure and bring leverage back within the 3.0x limit. No new buys are executed as the candidates list is empty and the priority is deleveraging."
}

{
  "raw": {
    "id": "gen-1774375988-pGPxGtuQs87zOE3xzGFd",
    "model": "z-ai/glm-4.7-20251222",
    "usage": {
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      "total_tokens": 13381,
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    "object": "chat.completion",
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        "message": {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": "{\n  \"selected_stocks\": [\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"CRST_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 95,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme 1-day gain of 24.85% and 17.83% above MA50 suggests high probability of pullback.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"MAB_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 85,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Strong 1-day gain of 14.38% and 10.94% above MA50 indicates overbought conditions.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"HMSO_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 84,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Significant 1-day gain of 14.13% and 10.01% above MA50 signals short-term overextension.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"INF_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 82,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Sharp 1-day drop of 14.49% and 13.85% below MA50 suggests",
          "refusal": null,
          "reasoning": "The user wants me to act as an Arena strategy executor for a \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)\" strategy.\nThe task is `stage1_universe_scan`.\nThe region is \"US\", but the provided universe contains a mix of UK (.UK), France (.FR), Germany (.DE), Portugal (.PT), and US (.US) symbols. The strategy rules specify `universe_symbols_us` is empty, implying I should scan the provided universe which seems to be a mix, but I must strictly follow the selection rules.\n\n**Strategy Rules:**\n- `max_positions`: 10\n- `max_buys_per_run`: 2\n- `avoid_overtrading`: true\n- `max_sells_per_run`: 2\n- `max_gross_leverage`: 3.0\n- `fixed_position_size`: 3000.0\n- `universe_symbols_eu`: []\n- `universe_symbols_us`: []\n\n**Selection Rules:**\n- `horizon`: 2-10 trading days\n- `target`: short-term mean reversion in liquid equities\n- `constraints`:\n    - Select exactly 5 candidates.\n    - Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known).\n    - Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known).\n    - Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown).\n\n**Data Analysis:**\nI need to look for stocks that are currently extended away from their mean (likely MA50 or MA200) and have recently experienced a sharp move (high volatility or large daily change) that suggests a potential pullback (mean reversion). Since the strategy is \"Mean Reversion\", I am looking for stocks that are:\n1.  Oversold (far below MA50/MA200) and might bounce back up.\n2.  Overbought (far above MA50/MA200) and might pull back down.\n\nHowever, usually, \"Mean Reversion\" in this context often implies buying the dip (oversold) or shorting the rip (overbought). Given the constraints, I need to select 5 candidates.\n\nLet's analyze the provided universe. Note that `sector` is empty for all, so I cannot enforce sector concentration rules strictly based on sector, but I should try to pick diverse names if possible, or just pick the best technical setups.\n\n**Candidate Filtering:**\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: Change +24.85%, Dist MA50 +17.8%, Vol 158%. This is a massive rip. Good for short mean reversion.\n2.  **MSLH_CFD.UK**: Change +2%, Dist MA200 -18%, Dist MA50 +4.5%. Mixed signals.\n3.  **LMP_CFD.UK**: Change +11.5%, Dist MA50 +10.7%. Overbought.\n4.  **ESNT_CFD.UK**: Change +4.2%, Dist MA50 +9.7%. Mildly overbought.\n5.  **PAG_CFD.UK**: Change -3.4%, Dist MA50 +0.7%. Neutral.\n6.  **INVP_CFD.UK**: Change +8.5%, Dist MA50 +9.5%. Overbought.\n7.  **CBG_CFD.UK**: Change -26.6%, Dist MA50 -22.1%, Vol 169%. Massive crash. Good for long mean reversion (dead cat bounce) or risky if binary event.\n8.  **DLN_CFD.UK**: Change +10.4%, Dist MA50 +12.1%. Overbought.\n9.  **MCG_CFD.UK**: Change +2.9%, Dist MA50 +8.3%. Mildly overbought.\n10. **BT_CFD.UK**: Change +4.5%, Dist MA50 +10.2%. Overbought.\n11. **IWG_CFD.UK**: Change -24%, Dist MA50 -17%, Vol 148%. Big crash. Candidate for long reversion.\n12. **MKS_CFD.UK**: Change -7.4%, Dist MA50 -2.7%. Mild pullback.\n13. **EMG_CFD.UK**: Change +2.3%, Dist MA50 +15.5%. Overbought.\n14. **MNG_CFD.UK**: Change -11.9%, Dist MA50 -7.6%. Oversold.\n15. **PZC_CFD.UK**: Change -13.8%, Dist MA50 +2.5%. Sharp drop but still above MA50. Reversion to MA50?\n16. **LTA_CFD.FR**: Change -3.3%, Dist MA50 -7%. Mildly oversold.\n17. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: Change -21%, Dist MA50 -5.4%, Vol 241%. Big drop.\n18. **HWDN_CFD.UK**: Change -2.6%, Dist MA50 +0.6%. Neutral.\n19. **LRE_CFD.UK**: Change -7.4%, Dist MA50 -6.4%. Oversold.\n20. **IMI_CFD.UK**: Change +1.5%, Dist MA50 +2.7%. Neutral.\n21. **BME_CFD.UK**: Change -5.1%, Dist MA200 -22%, Dist MA50 -2.8%. Long term oversold, short term neutral.\n22. **DCC_CFD.UK**: Change +4.1%, Dist MA50 -1.7%. Neutral.\n23. **DOCS_CFD.UK**: Change -1.5%, Dist MA50 -12%. Oversold.\n24. **ABDN_CFD.UK**: Change -7.7%, Dist MA50 -2.3%. Mild.\n25. **LIO_CFD.UK**: Change +7.7%, Dist MA50 +4.4%. Overbought.\n26. **BBY_CFD.UK**: Change +5.2%, Dist MA50 +8.8%. Overbought.\n27. **AB_CFD.FR**: Change -3.9%, Dist MA50 -11.8%. Oversold.\n28. **OSB_CFD.UK**: Change -12.8%, Dist MA50 -8.4%. Oversold.\n29. **MAB_CFD.UK**: Change +14.3%, Dist MA50 +10.9%. Overbought.\n30. **KGF_CFD.UK**: Change -14.1%, Dist MA50 -4.7%. Sharp drop.\n31. **HLMA_CFD.UK**: Change -5.4%, Dist MA50 -0.8%. Neutral.\n32. **DOM_CFD.UK**: Change +4.1%, Dist MA50 +4.4%. Mildly overbought.\n33. **IPO_CFD.UK**: Change -1.8%, Dist MA50 -2%. Neutral.\n34. **BTRW_CFD.UK**: Change -33%, Dist MA50 -31.8%, Vol 128%. Massive crash. High risk but extreme mean reversion candidate.\n35. **GROW_CFD.UK**: Change +1.5%, Dist MA50 -4.2%. Neutral.\n36. **BYIT_CFD.UK**: Change -12.6%, Dist MA50 -14.3%. Oversold.\n37. **HIK_CFD.UK**: Change -18.9%, Dist MA50 -15.4%. Oversold.\n38. **HHFA_CFD.DE**: Change 0%, Dist MA50 +0.3%. Flat.\n39. **INF_CFD.UK**: Change -14.4%, Dist MA50 -13.8%. Oversold.\n40. **ATG_CFD.UK**: Change +12%, Dist MA50 +5.8%. Overbought.\n41. **BLDR_CFD.US**: Change +0.9%, Dist MA50 -22.8%. Deeply oversold.\n42. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: Change +14.1%, Dist MA50 +10%. Overbought.\n43. **NXT_CFD.UK**: Change -6.4%, Dist MA50 -7.6%. Oversold.\n44. **BRNK_CFD.DE**: Change -10.9%, Dist MA50 -25.2%. Oversold.\n45. **QDT_CFD.FR**: Change 0%, Dist MA50 -11.2%. Oversold.\n46. **KSS_CFD.US**: Change +6.7%, Dist MA50 -23.3%. Bounce attempt from deep oversold.\n47. **OVH_CFD.FR**: Change -2.9%, Dist MA50 -6.8%. Mildly oversold.\n48. **IPR_CFD.PT**: Change -3.6%, Dist MA50 -3.1%. Mild.\n49. **DG_CFD.US**: Change -4.3%, Dist MA50 -16.5%. Oversold.\n50. **AUTO_CFD.UK**: Change -38.6%, Dist MA50 -31.8%, Vol 130%. Massive crash.\n\n**Selection for Mean Reversion:**\nI need to pick 5. I will look for extreme deviations from the MA50 or MA200 combined with high volatility or large daily changes.\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily change, +17.8% from MA50. Very extended. High probability of pullback. (Short candidate)\n2.  **BTRW_CFD.UK**: -33% daily change, -31.8% from MA50. Extreme crash. (Long candidate)\n3.  **AUTO_CFD.UK**: -38.6% daily change, -31.8% from MA50. Extreme crash. (Long candidate)\n4.  **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.6% daily change, -22.1% from MA50. Extreme crash. (Long candidate)\n5.  **HIK_CFD.UK**: -18.9% daily change, -15.4% from MA50. Significant drop. (Long candidate)\n\nLet's check if there are any better \"Overbought\" candidates to balance or if I should stick to the crashes. The strategy is \"Mean Reversion\", which works both ways, but crashes often offer sharper bounces (dead cat bounce) or are too risky (binary events). However, the prompt says \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)\". A 30-40% drop in one day is almost certainly a binary event (earnings warning, regulatory issue, etc.). I should be careful with BTRW, AUTO, CBG.\n\nLet's look for less extreme but still significant deviations.\n\n**Revised Selection:**\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily change. Very extended. High score for short reversion.\n2.  **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.3% daily change, +10.9% from MA50. Strong overbought.\n3.  **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.1% daily change, +10% from MA50. Strong overbought.\n4.  **ATG_CFD.UK**: +12% daily change, +5.8% from MA50. Overbought.\n5.  **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.4% daily change, +12.1% from MA50. Overbought.\n\nWait, I should probably mix long and short or pick the strongest setups regardless of direction. The strategy doesn't specify direction, just \"mean reversion\".\nLet's look at the \"Oversold\" side again, avoiding the -30% drops which are likely binary.\n\n**Oversold Candidates (avoiding -20%+ daily drops):**\n- **KGF_CFD.UK**: -14.1% daily, -4.7% from MA50. Sharp drop.\n- **PZC_CFD.UK**: -13.8% daily, +2.5% from MA50. Sharp drop, still above mean.\n- **OSB_CFD.UK**: -12.8% daily, -8.4% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n- **BYIT_CFD.UK**: -12.6% daily, -14.3% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n- **MNG_CFD.UK**: -11.9% daily, -7.6% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n- **INF_CFD.UK**: -14.4% daily, -13.8% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n\n**Overbought Candidates:**\n- **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily, +17.8% from MA50. Extreme.\n- **LMP_CFD.UK**: +11.5% daily, +10.7% from MA50.\n- **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.3% daily, +10.9% from MA50.\n- **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.1% daily, +10% from MA50.\n\n**Selection Logic:**\nI will select the 5 stocks with the most extreme deviations from the mean (MA50) combined with significant daily momentum, while trying to avoid the -30% crashers (likely binary events).\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily change. Distance MA50: +17.83%. Volatility: 158%. (Short)\n2.  **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.38% daily change. Distance MA50: +10.94%. Volatility: 118%. (Short)\n3.  **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.13% daily change. Distance MA50: +10.01%. Volatility: 87%. (Short)\n4.  **INF_CFD.UK**: -14.49% daily change. Distance MA50: -13.85%. Volatility: 89%. (Long)\n5.  **BYIT_CFD.UK**: -12.67% daily change. Distance MA50: -14.35%. Volatility: 87%. (Long)\n\nLet's double check sectors. They are all unknown/empty, so I can't diversify by sector. I will proceed with these 5.\n\n**Scoring (0-100):**\n- **CRST**: 95 (Extreme extension)\n- **MAB**: 85 (Strong extension)\n- **HMSO**: 84 (Strong extension)\n- **INF**: 82 (Strong drop)\n- **BYIT**: 80 (Strong drop)\n\n**Reasons:**\n- CRST: Extreme 1-day gain (+24.8%) and distance from MA50 (+17.8%).\n- MAB: Strong 1-day gain (+14.4%) and distance from MA50 (+10.9%).\n- HMSO: Strong 1-day gain (+14.1%) and distance from MA50 (+10.0%).\n- INF: Sharp 1-day drop (-14.5%) and distance from MA50 (-13.8%).\n- BYIT: Sharp 1-day drop (-12.7%) and distance from MA50 (-14.3%).\n\n**Rejected Common Reasons:**\n- Avoided stocks with >20% daily drops (BTRW, AUTO, CBG) due to potential binary event risk.\n- Avoided stocks with low volatility or small daily changes.\n- Avoided stocks with mixed signals (e.g., positive daily change but negative MA distance).\n\n**Final Check:**\n- Select exactly 5 candidates? Yes.\n- Avoid earnings? Unknown for all, so N/A.\n- Avoid binary moves? Avoided the -30% ones.\n- Sector concentration? Unknown sectors.\n\nConstructing JSON.\n\n```json\n{\n  \"selected_stocks\": [\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"CRST_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 95,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme 1-day gain of 24.85% and 17.83% above MA50 suggests high probability of pullback.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"MAB_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 85,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Strong 1-day gain of 14.38% and 10.94% above MA50 indicates overbought conditions.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"HMSO_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 84,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Significant 1-day gain of 14.13% and 10.01% above MA50 signals short-term overextension.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"INF_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 82,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Sharp 1-day drop of 14.49% and 13.85% below MA50 suggests oversold bounce potential.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"BYIT_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 80,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Notable 1-day decline of 12.67% and 14.35% below MA50 indicates mean reversion opportunity.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"rejected_common_reasons\": [\n    \"Avoided stocks with >20% daily drops (e.g., BTRW_CFD.UK, AUTO_CFD.UK, CBG_CFD.UK) due to high binary event risk.\",\n    \"Excluded stocks with low daily price changes or minimal deviation from moving averages.\",\n    \"Ignored stocks with conflicting technical signals (e.g., positive price action but below MA50).\"\n  ]\n}\n```",
          "reasoning_details": [
            {
              "text": "The user wants me to act as an Arena strategy executor for a \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)\" strategy.\nThe task is `stage1_universe_scan`.\nThe region is \"US\", but the provided universe contains a mix of UK (.UK), France (.FR), Germany (.DE), Portugal (.PT), and US (.US) symbols. The strategy rules specify `universe_symbols_us` is empty, implying I should scan the provided universe which seems to be a mix, but I must strictly follow the selection rules.\n\n**Strategy Rules:**\n- `max_positions`: 10\n- `max_buys_per_run`: 2\n- `avoid_overtrading`: true\n- `max_sells_per_run`: 2\n- `max_gross_leverage`: 3.0\n- `fixed_position_size`: 3000.0\n- `universe_symbols_eu`: []\n- `universe_symbols_us`: []\n\n**Selection Rules:**\n- `horizon`: 2-10 trading days\n- `target`: short-term mean reversion in liquid equities\n- `constraints`:\n    - Select exactly 5 candidates.\n    - Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known).\n    - Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known).\n    - Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown).\n\n**Data Analysis:**\nI need to look for stocks that are currently extended away from their mean (likely MA50 or MA200) and have recently experienced a sharp move (high volatility or large daily change) that suggests a potential pullback (mean reversion). Since the strategy is \"Mean Reversion\", I am looking for stocks that are:\n1.  Oversold (far below MA50/MA200) and might bounce back up.\n2.  Overbought (far above MA50/MA200) and might pull back down.\n\nHowever, usually, \"Mean Reversion\" in this context often implies buying the dip (oversold) or shorting the rip (overbought). Given the constraints, I need to select 5 candidates.\n\nLet's analyze the provided universe. Note that `sector` is empty for all, so I cannot enforce sector concentration rules strictly based on sector, but I should try to pick diverse names if possible, or just pick the best technical setups.\n\n**Candidate Filtering:**\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: Change +24.85%, Dist MA50 +17.8%, Vol 158%. This is a massive rip. Good for short mean reversion.\n2.  **MSLH_CFD.UK**: Change +2%, Dist MA200 -18%, Dist MA50 +4.5%. Mixed signals.\n3.  **LMP_CFD.UK**: Change +11.5%, Dist MA50 +10.7%. Overbought.\n4.  **ESNT_CFD.UK**: Change +4.2%, Dist MA50 +9.7%. Mildly overbought.\n5.  **PAG_CFD.UK**: Change -3.4%, Dist MA50 +0.7%. Neutral.\n6.  **INVP_CFD.UK**: Change +8.5%, Dist MA50 +9.5%. Overbought.\n7.  **CBG_CFD.UK**: Change -26.6%, Dist MA50 -22.1%, Vol 169%. Massive crash. Good for long mean reversion (dead cat bounce) or risky if binary event.\n8.  **DLN_CFD.UK**: Change +10.4%, Dist MA50 +12.1%. Overbought.\n9.  **MCG_CFD.UK**: Change +2.9%, Dist MA50 +8.3%. Mildly overbought.\n10. **BT_CFD.UK**: Change +4.5%, Dist MA50 +10.2%. Overbought.\n11. **IWG_CFD.UK**: Change -24%, Dist MA50 -17%, Vol 148%. Big crash. Candidate for long reversion.\n12. **MKS_CFD.UK**: Change -7.4%, Dist MA50 -2.7%. Mild pullback.\n13. **EMG_CFD.UK**: Change +2.3%, Dist MA50 +15.5%. Overbought.\n14. **MNG_CFD.UK**: Change -11.9%, Dist MA50 -7.6%. Oversold.\n15. **PZC_CFD.UK**: Change -13.8%, Dist MA50 +2.5%. Sharp drop but still above MA50. Reversion to MA50?\n16. **LTA_CFD.FR**: Change -3.3%, Dist MA50 -7%. Mildly oversold.\n17. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: Change -21%, Dist MA50 -5.4%, Vol 241%. Big drop.\n18. **HWDN_CFD.UK**: Change -2.6%, Dist MA50 +0.6%. Neutral.\n19. **LRE_CFD.UK**: Change -7.4%, Dist MA50 -6.4%. Oversold.\n20. **IMI_CFD.UK**: Change +1.5%, Dist MA50 +2.7%. Neutral.\n21. **BME_CFD.UK**: Change -5.1%, Dist MA200 -22%, Dist MA50 -2.8%. Long term oversold, short term neutral.\n22. **DCC_CFD.UK**: Change +4.1%, Dist MA50 -1.7%. Neutral.\n23. **DOCS_CFD.UK**: Change -1.5%, Dist MA50 -12%. Oversold.\n24. **ABDN_CFD.UK**: Change -7.7%, Dist MA50 -2.3%. Mild.\n25. **LIO_CFD.UK**: Change +7.7%, Dist MA50 +4.4%. Overbought.\n26. **BBY_CFD.UK**: Change +5.2%, Dist MA50 +8.8%. Overbought.\n27. **AB_CFD.FR**: Change -3.9%, Dist MA50 -11.8%. Oversold.\n28. **OSB_CFD.UK**: Change -12.8%, Dist MA50 -8.4%. Oversold.\n29. **MAB_CFD.UK**: Change +14.3%, Dist MA50 +10.9%. Overbought.\n30. **KGF_CFD.UK**: Change -14.1%, Dist MA50 -4.7%. Sharp drop.\n31. **HLMA_CFD.UK**: Change -5.4%, Dist MA50 -0.8%. Neutral.\n32. **DOM_CFD.UK**: Change +4.1%, Dist MA50 +4.4%. Mildly overbought.\n33. **IPO_CFD.UK**: Change -1.8%, Dist MA50 -2%. Neutral.\n34. **BTRW_CFD.UK**: Change -33%, Dist MA50 -31.8%, Vol 128%. Massive crash. High risk but extreme mean reversion candidate.\n35. **GROW_CFD.UK**: Change +1.5%, Dist MA50 -4.2%. Neutral.\n36. **BYIT_CFD.UK**: Change -12.6%, Dist MA50 -14.3%. Oversold.\n37. **HIK_CFD.UK**: Change -18.9%, Dist MA50 -15.4%. Oversold.\n38. **HHFA_CFD.DE**: Change 0%, Dist MA50 +0.3%. Flat.\n39. **INF_CFD.UK**: Change -14.4%, Dist MA50 -13.8%. Oversold.\n40. **ATG_CFD.UK**: Change +12%, Dist MA50 +5.8%. Overbought.\n41. **BLDR_CFD.US**: Change +0.9%, Dist MA50 -22.8%. Deeply oversold.\n42. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: Change +14.1%, Dist MA50 +10%. Overbought.\n43. **NXT_CFD.UK**: Change -6.4%, Dist MA50 -7.6%. Oversold.\n44. **BRNK_CFD.DE**: Change -10.9%, Dist MA50 -25.2%. Oversold.\n45. **QDT_CFD.FR**: Change 0%, Dist MA50 -11.2%. Oversold.\n46. **KSS_CFD.US**: Change +6.7%, Dist MA50 -23.3%. Bounce attempt from deep oversold.\n47. **OVH_CFD.FR**: Change -2.9%, Dist MA50 -6.8%. Mildly oversold.\n48. **IPR_CFD.PT**: Change -3.6%, Dist MA50 -3.1%. Mild.\n49. **DG_CFD.US**: Change -4.3%, Dist MA50 -16.5%. Oversold.\n50. **AUTO_CFD.UK**: Change -38.6%, Dist MA50 -31.8%, Vol 130%. Massive crash.\n\n**Selection for Mean Reversion:**\nI need to pick 5. I will look for extreme deviations from the MA50 or MA200 combined with high volatility or large daily changes.\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily change, +17.8% from MA50. Very extended. High probability of pullback. (Short candidate)\n2.  **BTRW_CFD.UK**: -33% daily change, -31.8% from MA50. Extreme crash. (Long candidate)\n3.  **AUTO_CFD.UK**: -38.6% daily change, -31.8% from MA50. Extreme crash. (Long candidate)\n4.  **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.6% daily change, -22.1% from MA50. Extreme crash. (Long candidate)\n5.  **HIK_CFD.UK**: -18.9% daily change, -15.4% from MA50. Significant drop. (Long candidate)\n\nLet's check if there are any better \"Overbought\" candidates to balance or if I should stick to the crashes. The strategy is \"Mean Reversion\", which works both ways, but crashes often offer sharper bounces (dead cat bounce) or are too risky (binary events). However, the prompt says \"Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)\". A 30-40% drop in one day is almost certainly a binary event (earnings warning, regulatory issue, etc.). I should be careful with BTRW, AUTO, CBG.\n\nLet's look for less extreme but still significant deviations.\n\n**Revised Selection:**\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily change. Very extended. High score for short reversion.\n2.  **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.3% daily change, +10.9% from MA50. Strong overbought.\n3.  **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.1% daily change, +10% from MA50. Strong overbought.\n4.  **ATG_CFD.UK**: +12% daily change, +5.8% from MA50. Overbought.\n5.  **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.4% daily change, +12.1% from MA50. Overbought.\n\nWait, I should probably mix long and short or pick the strongest setups regardless of direction. The strategy doesn't specify direction, just \"mean reversion\".\nLet's look at the \"Oversold\" side again, avoiding the -30% drops which are likely binary.\n\n**Oversold Candidates (avoiding -20%+ daily drops):**\n- **KGF_CFD.UK**: -14.1% daily, -4.7% from MA50. Sharp drop.\n- **PZC_CFD.UK**: -13.8% daily, +2.5% from MA50. Sharp drop, still above mean.\n- **OSB_CFD.UK**: -12.8% daily, -8.4% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n- **BYIT_CFD.UK**: -12.6% daily, -14.3% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n- **MNG_CFD.UK**: -11.9% daily, -7.6% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n- **INF_CFD.UK**: -14.4% daily, -13.8% from MA50. Good oversold setup.\n\n**Overbought Candidates:**\n- **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily, +17.8% from MA50. Extreme.\n- **LMP_CFD.UK**: +11.5% daily, +10.7% from MA50.\n- **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.3% daily, +10.9% from MA50.\n- **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.1% daily, +10% from MA50.\n\n**Selection Logic:**\nI will select the 5 stocks with the most extreme deviations from the mean (MA50) combined with significant daily momentum, while trying to avoid the -30% crashers (likely binary events).\n\n1.  **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily change. Distance MA50: +17.83%. Volatility: 158%. (Short)\n2.  **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.38% daily change. Distance MA50: +10.94%. Volatility: 118%. (Short)\n3.  **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.13% daily change. Distance MA50: +10.01%. Volatility: 87%. (Short)\n4.  **INF_CFD.UK**: -14.49% daily change. Distance MA50: -13.85%. Volatility: 89%. (Long)\n5.  **BYIT_CFD.UK**: -12.67% daily change. Distance MA50: -14.35%. Volatility: 87%. (Long)\n\nLet's double check sectors. They are all unknown/empty, so I can't diversify by sector. I will proceed with these 5.\n\n**Scoring (0-100):**\n- **CRST**: 95 (Extreme extension)\n- **MAB**: 85 (Strong extension)\n- **HMSO**: 84 (Strong extension)\n- **INF**: 82 (Strong drop)\n- **BYIT**: 80 (Strong drop)\n\n**Reasons:**\n- CRST: Extreme 1-day gain (+24.8%) and distance from MA50 (+17.8%).\n- MAB: Strong 1-day gain (+14.4%) and distance from MA50 (+10.9%).\n- HMSO: Strong 1-day gain (+14.1%) and distance from MA50 (+10.0%).\n- INF: Sharp 1-day drop (-14.5%) and distance from MA50 (-13.8%).\n- BYIT: Sharp 1-day drop (-12.7%) and distance from MA50 (-14.3%).\n\n**Rejected Common Reasons:**\n- Avoided stocks with >20% daily drops (BTRW, AUTO, CBG) due to potential binary event risk.\n- Avoided stocks with low volatility or small daily changes.\n- Avoided stocks with mixed signals (e.g., positive daily change but negative MA distance).\n\n**Final Check:**\n- Select exactly 5 candidates? Yes.\n- Avoid earnings? Unknown for all, so N/A.\n- Avoid binary moves? Avoided the -30% ones.\n- Sector concentration? Unknown sectors.\n\nConstructing JSON.\n\n```json\n{\n  \"selected_stocks\": [\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"CRST_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 95,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme 1-day gain of 24.85% and 17.83% above MA50 suggests high probability of pullback.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"MAB_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 85,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Strong 1-day gain of 14.38% and 10.94% above MA50 indicates overbought conditions.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"HMSO_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 84,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Significant 1-day gain of 14.13% and 10.01% above MA50 signals short-term overextension.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"INF_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 82,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Sharp 1-day drop of 14.49% and 13.85% below MA50 suggests oversold bounce potential.\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"symbol\": \"BYIT_CFD.UK\",\n      \"mean_reversion_score\": 80,\n      \"selection_reason\": \"Notable 1-day decline of 12.67% and 14.35% below MA50 indicates mean reversion opportunity.\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"rejected_common_reasons\": [\n    \"Avoided stocks with >20% daily drops (e.g., BTRW_CFD.UK, AUTO_CFD.UK, CBG_CFD.UK) due to high binary event risk.\",\n    \"Excluded stocks with low daily price changes or minimal deviation from moving averages.\",\n    \"Ignored stocks with conflicting technical signals (e.g., positive price action but below MA50).\"\n  ]\n}\n```",
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