MarketWeatherForecast

Arena run #800

meanrev-v1 • moonshotai • moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking • EU • success
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-23T10:03:51.599067+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-23T10:26:50.457749+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-23T10:28:31.036326+00:00
duration_ms: 100576
Inputs
{
  "as_of": "2026-03-23T10:03:51.599067+00:00",
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [
    {
      "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme -26.6% daily drop, -22.1% below MA50, 169% vol signals oversold bounce setup",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Massive +54.9% dead-cat bounce, still -40.5% below MA50, 548% vol indicates reversal likely",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Sharp -24.1% decline, -17.0% from MA50, 149% vol suggests mean reversion opportunity",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    },
    {
      "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Large -21.1% selloff, very high 241% volatility, stretched from MA50",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme +24.9% rally, +17.8% extended above MA50, 158% vol signals pullback setup",
      "mean_reversion_score": 85
    }
  ],
  "simulate_only": false,
  "strict_replay": false,
  "universe_symbols": [
    "CRST_CFD.UK",
    "MSLH_CFD.UK",
    "LMP_CFD.UK",
    "SPX_CFD.UK",
    "ESNT_CFD.UK",
    "JDW_CFD.UK",
    "UTG_CFD.UK",
    "PAG_CFD.UK",
    "INVP_CFD.UK",
    "BME_CFD.UK",
    "RHIM_CFD.UK",
    "CBG_CFD.UK",
    "ANTO_CFD.UK",
    "IWG_CFD.UK",
    "SYNT_CFD.UK",
    "EMG_CFD.UK",
    "ABDN_CFD.UK",
    "OCDO_CFD.UK",
    "HWDN_CFD.UK",
    "JMAT_CFD.UK",
    "IMI_CFD.UK",
    "FUR_CFD.NL",
    "DCC_CFD.UK",
    "ALTA_CFD.FR",
    "BPOST_CFD.BE",
    "COV_CFD.FR",
    "STJ_CFD.UK",
    "LIO_CFD.UK",
    "OPTU_CFD.US",
    "ADM_CFD.UK",
    "SMIN_CFD.UK",
    "APAM_CFD.NL",
    "XRX_CFD.US",
    "REC_CFD.BE",
    "VSVS_CFD.UK",
    "MKS_CFD.UK",
    "HDD_CFD.DE",
    "CMBT_CFD.BE",
    "LOTB_CFD.BE",
    "III_CFD.UK",
    "NXI_CFD.FR",
    "WHA_CFD.NL",
    "FNTN_CFD.DE",
    "ONTEX_CFD.BE",
    "UTDI_CFD.DE",
    "AAL_CFD.UK",
    "SHUR_CFD.BE",
    "KGF_CFD.UK",
    "SSE_CFD.UK",
    "ELI_CFD.BE"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Score 92 candidate with massive +54.9% dead-cat bounce, still -40.5% below MA50 and 548% volatility. Strong mean-reversion setup not currently held.",
        "symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Score 85 candidate showing extreme +24.9% rally extension (+17.8% above MA50) with 158% vol. Pullback setup complements portfolio.",
        "symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Top candidate (score 95) with extreme oversold conditions (-26.6% drop, -22.1% below MA50). Hold for mean-reversion bounce.",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Strong candidate (score 90) showing sharp -24.1% decline with high volatility. Aligned with strategy.",
        "symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "High-scoring candidate (score 88) after -21.1% selloff with 241% volatility. Maintain position.",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Breakeven position. No mean-reversion signal but stable. Prefer HOLD to avoid overtrading.",
        "symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Breakeven position. No catalyst for change. Hold to maintain portfolio stability.",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Breakeven position. No mean-reversion signal identified. Avoid unnecessary churn.",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Breakeven position. Stable holding with no compelling sell signal.",
        "symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Breakeven position. No adverse signals or candidate status. Maintain position.",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Significant unrealized loss (-251.85) on non-candidate position lacking mean-reversion characteristics. Freeing slot for higher-conviction setup.",
        "symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Small loss but not identified as mean-reversion candidate. Releasing capital for SYNT_CFD.UK (score 92) with superior dead-cat bounce setup.",
        "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio at max capacity (10 positions). Replaced two non-candidate holdings showing losses (PSN, ICG) with two high-conviction mean-reversion candidates (SYNT score 92, CRST score 85). Maintained all breakeven positions and top-scoring existing candidates (CBG, IWG, OCDO) to avoid overtrading. Gross leverage remains within 3.0x limit. Actions improve portfolio alignment with mean-reversion strategy while respecting turnover constraints."
}
Prompts & responses
#1574 • openrouter • moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking • 2026-03-23T10:26:50.502462+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "name": "CREST NICHOLSON HOLDINGS", "sector": "", "last_price": 167.8, "change_1d_pct": 24.85119047619049, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.2720261375977815, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.82963155418549, "volatility_20d_pct": 158.46878099582966, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "name": "MARSHALLS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 179.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.052451539338662, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -18.41965657865713, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.539832012082234, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.90810964969117, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LMP_CFD.UK", "name": "LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 214.0, "change_1d_pct": 11.57455683003128, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.507879494597773, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.77384329331672, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.89150861607771, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SPX_CFD.UK", "name": "SPIRAX-SARCO ENGINEERING PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 7608.71, "change_1d_pct": 10.91413994169097, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.905097055024719, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.459177525660632, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.71063298478786, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ESNT_CFD.UK", "name": "ESSENTRA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 108.4, "change_1d_pct": 4.230769230769238, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.40452119530135, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.771484932749797, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.9832071461764, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK", "name": "WETHERSPOON (J.D.) PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 748.5, "change_1d_pct": 9.750733137829904, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.242631058659898, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.290077328071208, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.2373545531062, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 567.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.4639927073837784, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.929923575376698, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.6875042216270137, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.84223442053181, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAG_CFD.UK", "name": "PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 852.5, "change_1d_pct": -3.399433427762044, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.3404962254783492, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.699141440891915, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.52779356208148, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "INVP_CFD.UK", "name": "INVESTEC PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 623.5, "change_1d_pct": 8.529155787641418, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 17.34715626999408, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.569618971869698, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.97154585310399, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BME_CFD.UK", "name": "B&M EUROPEAN VALUE RETAIL SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 175.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.7237354085603127, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -19.458633148571437, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9348295527952688, "volatility_20d_pct": 108.97608622337773, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "RHI MAGNESITA NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 2550.0, "change_1d_pct": -6.764168190127973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.35709026809392, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9429816244979738, "volatility_20d_pct": 151.25590362229855, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 372.74, "change_1d_pct": -26.625984251968504, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.365429078084645, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.129222788055436, "volatility_20d_pct": 169.0552301316783, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ANTO_CFD.UK", "name": "ANTOFAGASTA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3259.0, "change_1d_pct": -9.321090706733449, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.26423019611667, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.880389774045042, "volatility_20d_pct": 131.0149196933384, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "name": "IWG PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 189.6, "change_1d_pct": -24.09927942353883, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.798015594910993, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.03351041019402, "volatility_20d_pct": 148.96998448946707, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "name": "SYNTHOMER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 29.05, "change_1d_pct": 54.850746268656714, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -60.840559744095415, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -40.45886640240379, "volatility_20d_pct": 547.5939414040645, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EMG_CFD.UK", "name": "MAN GROUP PLC/JERSEY", "sector": "", "last_price": 269.6, "change_1d_pct": 2.353834472285521, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 42.186331073171914, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 15.516783354614262, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.92367167139048, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ABDN_CFD.UK", "name": "Aberdeen Group Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 215.2, "change_1d_pct": -0.6463527239150557, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 13.219747060140353, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.663782514155023, "volatility_20d_pct": 74.75396598460024, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 217.0, "change_1d_pct": -21.148255813953487, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.81606625159202, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.48311196636071, "volatility_20d_pct": 241.3119670937803, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HWDN_CFD.UK", "name": "HOWDEN JOINERY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 843.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.686229466563539, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.9144756901175572, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.6796292983215046, "volatility_20d_pct": 44.16384759940265, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JMAT_CFD.UK", "name": "JOHNSON MATTHEY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1921.0, "change_1d_pct": -15.523306948109061, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.5989307920274207, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.67077367201248, "volatility_20d_pct": 123.66479524785584, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IMI_CFD.UK", "name": "IMI PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2676.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.5945330296127658, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 20.655603593859716, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.743599661176499, "volatility_20d_pct": 90.40898907393799, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUR_CFD.NL", "name": "Fugro", "sector": "", "last_price": 9.99, "change_1d_pct": -3.4782608695652084, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.243670652478812, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.214443163511685, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.00731385157378, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DCC_CFD.UK", "name": "DCC PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4738.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.131868131868122, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.2358165497191043, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.6950365081147445, "volatility_20d_pct": 101.79870451788292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ALTA_CFD.FR", "name": "Altarea", "sector": "", "last_price": 112.4, "change_1d_pct": -4.58404074702885, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.9505471901171605, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.548290921863085, "volatility_20d_pct": 75.0741387586217, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BPOST_CFD.BE", "name": "Bpost", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.792, "change_1d_pct": -2.0765027322404372, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.503185133841635, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.773808164973556, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.14495265266997, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "COV_CFD.FR", "name": "Covivio SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 54.021, "change_1d_pct": -3.705882352941181, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.6605065109671977, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.181821603352475, "volatility_20d_pct": 55.880099277383636, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "STJ_CFD.UK", "name": "ST JAMES'S PLACE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1280.0, "change_1d_pct": -14.836992681304062, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.633703562254432, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.669417974449299, "volatility_20d_pct": 125.87476157380789, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 270.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.784431137724557, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.148878096081223, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.440258238208905, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.52252179896075, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OPTU_CFD.US", "name": "Optimum Communications Inc.", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.3, "change_1d_pct": -9.090909090909083, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -36.95288440553844, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -18.709354677338663, "volatility_20d_pct": 127.6568567850477, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ADM_CFD.UK", "name": "ADMIRAL GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3260.0, "change_1d_pct": 13.906359189378058, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.982877810981142, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.999045203918524, "volatility_20d_pct": 81.6824895770128, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SMIN_CFD.UK", "name": "SMITHS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2544.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.4333845019038671, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 14.948150770494873, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.167383226889343, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.718462979927, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "APAM_CFD.NL", "name": "Aperam SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 33.22, "change_1d_pct": -5.839002267573701, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.220385940096001, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.738612455644725, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.79392095847959, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US", "name": "Xerox Corp", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.41, "change_1d_pct": -7.843137254901967, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -58.53185106758426, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -30.2739590544951, "volatility_20d_pct": 131.04334057422258, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "REC_CFD.BE", "name": "Recticel SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 8.75, "change_1d_pct": -7.407407407407396, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.30640868397975, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.48397185301017, "volatility_20d_pct": 79.41482349411139, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VSVS_CFD.UK", "name": "VESUVIUS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 394.2, "change_1d_pct": -13.817227809357234, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.3255617926055221, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.75170756107602, "volatility_20d_pct": 119.59992452619474, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MKS_CFD.UK", "name": "MARKS & SPENCER GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 360.7, "change_1d_pct": -2.592492573588989, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.16685682262786994, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.2088381382512114, "volatility_20d_pct": 111.18292243780117, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HDD_CFD.DE", "name": "Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.4020000000000001, "change_1d_pct": 4.470938897168408, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.469318129092297, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.59787541768489, "volatility_20d_pct": 90.25830766182494, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CMBT_CFD.BE", "name": "Euronav", "sector": "", "last_price": 10.72, "change_1d_pct": 2.0952380952381056, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 21.039813291571583, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.7755534745981572, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.15590360214311, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LOTB_CFD.BE", "name": "Lotus Bakeries NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 9740.0, "change_1d_pct": -4.8828125, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 13.007683836217021, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.5497050309365648, "volatility_20d_pct": 59.64920666059652, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "III_CFD.UK", "name": "3I GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2740.0, "change_1d_pct": -7.118644067796609, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -26.416581513106042, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.205507618143876, "volatility_20d_pct": 114.49622440194238, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NXI_CFD.FR", "name": "Nexity SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 7.86, "change_1d_pct": -4.379562043795627, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -16.263877451225838, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.42321254891838, "volatility_20d_pct": 91.82911896505973, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WHA_CFD.NL", "name": "Wereldhave", "sector": "", "last_price": 21.2, "change_1d_pct": -1.85185185185186, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 16.723119546497635, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.2551821638041583, "volatility_20d_pct": 57.72084549191143, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FNTN_CFD.DE", "name": "FREENET AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 25.52, "change_1d_pct": -6.99708454810496, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -9.672845452256063, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.46788308941358, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.65989791678379, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ONTEX_CFD.BE", "name": "Ontex Group NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 4.26, "change_1d_pct": 3.147699757869238, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -27.949260042283296, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.489157841654063, "volatility_20d_pct": 74.5493332175651, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTDI_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 27.36, "change_1d_pct": 4.427480916030535, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 3.7512366912304973, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.043694349984435554, "volatility_20d_pct": 111.32133694601802, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AAL_CFD.UK", "name": "ANGLO AMERICAN PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2900.0, "change_1d_pct": -7.4074074074074066, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.752248290280758, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.758005325567103, "volatility_20d_pct": 97.09288799946901, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SHUR_CFD.BE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 25.95, "change_1d_pct": -6.486486486486487, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -22.326365753919152, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.43251445744279, "volatility_20d_pct": 105.91501537481747, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK", "name": "KINGFISHER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 309.6, "change_1d_pct": -14.143094841930115, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.598205649094723, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.786156349988369, "volatility_20d_pct": 104.60870893174696, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SSE_CFD.UK", "name": "SSE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2684.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.18663680477790656, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 31.063227728388853, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.809869359272902, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.61489335463473, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ELI_CFD.BE", "name": "Elia Group SA/NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 128.5, "change_1d_pct": -5.02586844050259, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 28.10807895405585, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.9977377861738495, "volatility_20d_pct": 65.94863383745387, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme -26.6% daily drop, -22.1% below MA50, 169% vol signals oversold bounce setup",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Massive +54.9% dead-cat bounce, still -40.5% below MA50, 548% vol indicates reversal likely",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Sharp -24.1% decline, -17.0% from MA50, 149% vol suggests mean reversion opportunity",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    },
    {
      "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Large -21.1% selloff, very high 241% volatility, stretched from MA50",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme +24.9% rally, +17.8% extended above MA50, 158% vol signals pullback setup",
      "mean_reversion_score": 85
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Insufficient price extension or volatility for high-conviction mean reversion",
    "Sector data unknown - unable to verify diversification constraint",
    "Earnings timeline unknown - unable to apply earnings avoidance filter"
  ]
}
#1575 • openrouter • moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking • 2026-03-23T10:28:05.673478+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 41.98, "last_price": 38.22, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.2137531068765535, "avg_price": 482.8, "last_price": 482.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.748396127376648, "avg_price": 342.92, "last_price": 342.92, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-18T17:58:33.497657+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.24287783679382, "avg_price": 414.2, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.7647058823529411, "avg_price": 1700.0, "last_price": 1693.0, "unrealized_pnl": -12.352941176470587, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "qty": 16.949152542372882, "avg_price": 177.0, "last_price": 177.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK", "qty": 5.208333333333333, "avg_price": 576.0, "last_price": 576.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-20T10:26:40.341409+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 17.72, "last_price": 16.0, "unrealized_pnl": -291.19638826185087, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 14.684287812041115, "avg_price": 204.3, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 19.64636542239686, "avg_price": 152.7, "last_price": 152.7, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.4691358024691357, "avg_price": 1215.0, "last_price": 1113.0, "unrealized_pnl": -251.85185185185185, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 151.8, "last_price": 173.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T10:03:26.036362+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 427.1, "last_price": 354.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 872.0, "last_price": 976.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 253.97436099095557, "last_price": 262.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 95, "selection_reason": "Extreme -26.6% daily drop, -22.1% below MA50, 169% vol signals oversold bounce setup"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 92, "selection_reason": "Massive +54.9% dead-cat bounce, still -40.5% below MA50, 548% vol indicates reversal likely"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 90, "selection_reason": "Sharp -24.1% decline, -17.0% from MA50, 149% vol suggests mean reversion opportunity"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 88, "selection_reason": "Large -21.1% selloff, very high 241% volatility, stretched from MA50"}, {"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 85, "selection_reason": "Extreme +24.9% rally, +17.8% extended above MA50, 158% vol signals pullback setup"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Score 92 candidate with massive +54.9% dead-cat bounce, still -40.5% below MA50 and 548% volatility. Strong mean-reversion setup not currently held.",
        "symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Score 85 candidate showing extreme +24.9% rally extension (+17.8% above MA50) with 158% vol. Pullback setup complements portfolio.",
        "symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Top candidate (score 95) with extreme oversold conditions (-26.6% drop, -22.1% below MA50). Hold for mean-reversion bounce.",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Strong candidate (score 90) showing sharp -24.1% decline with high volatility. Aligned with strategy.",
        "symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "High-scoring candidate (score 88) after -21.1% selloff with 241% volatility. Maintain position.",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Breakeven position. No mean-reversion signal but stable. Prefer HOLD to avoid overtrading.",
        "symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Breakeven position. No catalyst for change. Hold to maintain portfolio stability.",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Breakeven position. No mean-reversion signal identified. Avoid unnecessary churn.",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Breakeven position. Stable holding with no compelling sell signal.",
        "symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Breakeven position. No adverse signals or candidate status. Maintain position.",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Significant unrealized loss (-251.85) on non-candidate position lacking mean-reversion characteristics. Freeing slot for higher-conviction setup.",
        "symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Small loss but not identified as mean-reversion candidate. Releasing capital for SYNT_CFD.UK (score 92) with superior dead-cat bounce setup.",
        "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio at max capacity (10 positions). Replaced two non-candidate holdings showing losses (PSN, ICG) with two high-conviction mean-reversion candidates (SYNT score 92, CRST score 85). Maintained all breakeven positions and top-scoring existing candidates (CBG, IWG, OCDO) to avoid overtrading. Gross leverage remains within 3.0x limit. Actions improve portfolio alignment with mean-reversion strategy while respecting turnover constraints."
}
Selection logs
#779 • stage1 • 2026-03-23T10:28:05.670991+00:00
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme -26.6% daily drop, -22.1% below MA50, 169% vol signals oversold bounce setup",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Massive +54.9% dead-cat bounce, still -40.5% below MA50, 548% vol indicates reversal likely",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Sharp -24.1% decline, -17.0% from MA50, 149% vol suggests mean reversion opportunity",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    },
    {
      "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Large -21.1% selloff, very high 241% volatility, stretched from MA50",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme +24.9% rally, +17.8% extended above MA50, 158% vol signals pullback setup",
      "mean_reversion_score": 85
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Insufficient price extension or volatility for high-conviction mean reversion",
    "Sector data unknown - unable to verify diversification constraint",
    "Earnings timeline unknown - unable to apply earnings avoidance filter"
  ]
}