Arena run #755

meanrev-v1anthropicanthropic/claude-opus-4.6USsuccess
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-20T18:25:08.105367+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-20T19:04:02.962074+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-20T19:04:35.171936+00:00
duration_ms: 32208
Inputs
{
  "as_of": "2026-03-20T18:25:08.105367+00:00",
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [
    {
      "symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down -14.7% from MA50 with a -2.1% daily drop, suggesting oversold conditions ripe for short-term reversion. Moderate volatility relative to displacement.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    },
    {
      "symbol": "HAIN_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Down -33.2% from MA50, extreme displacement. However, very high volatility and low price raise risk; still a strong mean-reversion signal on distance alone.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 72
    },
    {
      "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down -28.7% from MA50 with a sharp -3.8% daily decline. Deep oversold displacement supports a bounce, though high volatility tempers conviction.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 70
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ABDN_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down -3.6% from MA50 with a mild +0.5% daily move, indicating modest oversold positioning with lower volatility risk relative to displacement.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 60
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down -1.6% from MA50 with a -1.1% daily drop. Mild oversold signal with relatively lower volatility among candidates, suitable for conservative mean-reversion.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 55
    }
  ],
  "simulate_only": false,
  "strict_replay": false,
  "universe_symbols": [
    "ABDN_CFD.UK",
    "HAIN_CFD.US",
    "BBY_CFD.UK",
    "BME_CFD.UK",
    "BTRW_CFD.UK",
    "BYIT_CFD.UK",
    "AML_CFD.UK",
    "AAF_CFD.UK",
    "AAL_CFD.UK",
    "CMBT_CFD.BE"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Small loss (-0.45%), still within mean-reversion window. Hold for bounce.",
        "symbol": "AAL_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat at entry. No reason to exit; awaiting reversion move.",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat at entry. Hold for upside.",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat. No signal to exit.",
        "symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat at entry. Hold.",
        "symbol": "DOCS_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat. Long-held position, hold.",
        "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Loss of -2.2% but still within tolerance. Hold for reversion.",
        "symbol": "LAND_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Profitable (+2.2%). Let winner run.",
        "symbol": "LSEG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Moderate loss (-1.4%). Hold for reversion.",
        "symbol": "MNDI_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat. Hold.",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Small profit. Hold.",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Just opened, flat. Hold.",
        "symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat. Hold.",
        "symbol": "ROR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat. Hold.",
        "symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Largest unrealized loss (-86.85, -2.9%). Position not reverting; cutting to reduce position count toward max of 10.",
        "symbol": "JMT_CFD.PT"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Second largest unrealized loss (-77.89, -2.6%). Price declining from avg_price 558.5 to 544.0 with no reversion signal. Reducing position count.",
        "symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio has 16 active positions, well above the 10-position max. Priority is reducing position count by selling the two worst-performing holdings (JMT, OSB) which show no reversion. No new buys until position count approaches limit. Candidates like BTRW (score 78) and HAIN (score 72) are attractive but adding positions now would worsen the overconcentration issue. Will reassess buys next cycle after sells settle."
}
Prompts & responses
#1494openrouteranthropic/claude-opus-4.62026-03-20T19:04:02.974558+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "ABDN_CFD.UK", "name": "Aberdeen Group Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 206.2, "change_1d_pct": 0.4873294346978474, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.567353199768042, "volatility_20d_pct": 5122.525857900045, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HAIN_CFD.US", "name": "The Hain Celestial Group Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.7051, "change_1d_pct": -0.18403171007929098, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -33.19918220868079, "volatility_20d_pct": 9562.636249272142, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 722.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.0951403148528382, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.628407265201648, "volatility_20d_pct": 2239.4661443465884, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BME_CFD.UK", "name": "B&M EUROPEAN VALUE RETAIL SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 187.88, "change_1d_pct": 1.0107526881720341, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.318666981973787, "volatility_20d_pct": 3503.713036055361, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "name": "Barratt Redrow Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 322.3, "change_1d_pct": -2.066241264053481, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.679472246341497, "volatility_20d_pct": 3259.103464638469, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 316.4, "change_1d_pct": 1.9329896907216426, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.036395062333752, "volatility_20d_pct": 3610.9502328075146, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "name": "ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL", "sector": "", "last_price": 42.5, "change_1d_pct": -3.8461538461538547, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -28.744119294080562, "volatility_20d_pct": 7200.809443066937, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AAF_CFD.UK", "name": "AIRTEL AFRICA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 360.2, "change_1d_pct": 3.209169054441263, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.706007002026901, "volatility_20d_pct": 3083.516648032069, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AAL_CFD.UK", "name": "ANGLO AMERICAN PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3586.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.055803571428580945, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 11.748904636364198, "volatility_20d_pct": 4209.946938281094, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CMBT_CFD.BE", "name": "Euronav", "sector": "", "last_price": 12.04, "change_1d_pct": -3.2154340836012874, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.20286979598327, "volatility_20d_pct": 3662.2062333013014, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down -14.7% from MA50 with a -2.1% daily drop, suggesting oversold conditions ripe for short-term reversion. Moderate volatility relative to displacement.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    },
    {
      "symbol": "HAIN_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Down -33.2% from MA50, extreme displacement. However, very high volatility and low price raise risk; still a strong mean-reversion signal on distance alone.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 72
    },
    {
      "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down -28.7% from MA50 with a sharp -3.8% daily decline. Deep oversold displacement supports a bounce, though high volatility tempers conviction.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 70
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ABDN_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down -3.6% from MA50 with a mild +0.5% daily move, indicating modest oversold positioning with lower volatility risk relative to displacement.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 60
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down -1.6% from MA50 with a -1.1% daily drop. Mild oversold signal with relatively lower volatility among candidates, suitable for conservative mean-reversion.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 55
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "BME_CFD.UK: +7.3% above MA50, not oversold — no mean-reversion long setup",
    "AAL_CFD.UK: +11.7% above MA50, extended to upside — no long mean-reversion case",
    "AAF_CFD.UK: +3.7% above MA50 with +3.2% daily surge — momentum, not reversion",
    "CMBT_CFD.BE: +17.2% above MA50 despite daily dip — still extended, not a clean reversion candidate",
    "BYIT_CFD.UK: Only -3.0% from MA50 but +1.9% daily gain already recovering — limited remaining reversion upside"
  ]
}
#1495openrouteranthropic/claude-opus-4.62026-03-20T19:04:14.892919+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "AAL_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.0298661174047374, "avg_price": 2913.0, "last_price": 2900.0, "unrealized_pnl": -13.388259526261587, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T10:09:24.325041+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1868.5, "last_price": 1846.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 249.47, "last_price": 245.96, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T18:15:23.812047+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ADS_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 137.15, "last_price": 142.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AMCX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.07, "last_price": 6.93, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AMH_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 29.63, "last_price": 29.16, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 59.0, "last_price": 58.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 28.6, "last_price": 27.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BEKB_CFD.BE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 38.9, "last_price": 40.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 364.2, "last_price": 373.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T18:03:34.247734+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 310.3, "last_price": 295.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-10T18:24:41.570614+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BXP_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 60.835, "last_price": 57.754999999999995, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 94.6, "last_price": 108.935, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CAR_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.285, "last_price": 95.88499999999999, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 17.496792254753295, "avg_price": 342.92, "last_price": 342.92, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-10T18:24:41.570614+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCC_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 2978.0, "last_price": 3218.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1945.9999999999998, "last_price": 1858.65, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T10:27:11.178069+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CPAY_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 321.845, "last_price": 317.015, "unrealized_pnl": -45.02167192282037, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T18:18:45.954380+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 423.05499999999995, "last_price": 388.21500000000003, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CTT_CFD.PT", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 6.74, "last_price": 6.76, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-13T10:07:39.444598+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.6556291390728477, "avg_price": 1812.0, "last_price": 1812.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DOCS_CFD.UK", "qty": 48.0, "avg_price": 62.5, "last_price": 62.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-17T18:12:35.221859+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 5110.0, "last_price": 5940.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T10:03:26.036362+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ELIOR_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 2.4, "last_price": 2.378, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-16T10:12:30.296045+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 55.55, "last_price": 53.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-07T10:14:47.113218+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ETSY_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 44.13, "last_price": 50.905, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 405.2, "last_price": 395.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-08T10:05:58.226220+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FICO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1127.4099999999999, "last_price": 1199.4650000000001, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T18:06:47.909233+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FME_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 38.38, "last_price": 38.14, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FRE_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 49.156, "last_price": 47.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T10:57:06.928276+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1408.0, "last_price": 1342.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HO_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 254.566, "last_price": 251.7, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.772002362669817, "avg_price": 1693.0, "last_price": 1693.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ITRK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 3942.0, "last_price": 3760.0, "unrealized_pnl": -138.5083713850837, "opened_at": "2026-03-13T10:07:39.444598+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 185.0, "last_price": 177.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-16T18:18:58.833148+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JBLU_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 4.57, "last_price": 4.5600000000000005, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T18:20:59.102726+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JMT_CFD.PT", "qty": 144.5086705202312, "avg_price": 20.76, "last_price": 20.159, "unrealized_pnl": -86.84971098265933, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T10:09:24.325041+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LAND_CFD.UK", "qty": 5.1194539249146755, "avg_price": 586.0, "last_price": 573.0, "unrealized_pnl": -66.55290102389078, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LOPE_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 157.02, "last_price": 152.77, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T17:33:48.338981+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LPX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 86.45, "last_price": 82.99, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSEG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.3525264394829612, "avg_price": 8510.0, "last_price": 8694.0, "unrealized_pnl": 64.86486486486486, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 20.15, "last_price": 19.78, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LTA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 26.0, "last_price": 25.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T10:03:26.036362+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LXS_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 13.14, "last_price": 13.64, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T10:33:43.857578+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MNDI_CFD.UK", "qty": 3.658536585365854, "avg_price": 820.0, "last_price": 808.6, "unrealized_pnl": -41.70731707317065, "opened_at": "2026-03-16T10:12:30.296045+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MTG_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 26.27, "last_price": 25.98, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "NXT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 12990.0, "last_price": 12770.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-07T10:14:47.113218+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 14.684287812041115, "avg_price": 204.3, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OKTA_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 70.18, "last_price": 78.38, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ORCL_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 153.02, "last_price": 150.49, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-08T18:08:31.007911+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK", "qty": 5.371530886302597, "avg_price": 558.5, "last_price": 544.0, "unrealized_pnl": -77.88719785138765, "opened_at": "2026-03-11T10:11:17.665074+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 19.74853531696399, "avg_price": 151.91, "last_price": 152.7, "unrealized_pnl": 15.601342900401397, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PROX_CFD.BE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 6.98, "last_price": 7.55, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PRU_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1030.0, "last_price": 1101.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 80.0, "last_price": 77.7, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T18:49:26.891792+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.2903225806451613, "avg_price": 2325.0, "last_price": 2325.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-20T10:26:40.341409+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 417.16, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ROR_CFD.UK", "qty": 9.696186166774403, "avg_price": 309.4, "last_price": 309.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-18T10:06:24.210601+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.7915567282321899, "avg_price": 3790.0000000000005, "last_price": 3790.0, "unrealized_pnl": -3.599583252399452e-13, "opened_at": "2026-03-17T18:12:35.221859+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RVTY_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 91.28, "last_price": 89.93, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-08T10:05:58.226220+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 708.0, "last_price": 708.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-13T18:17:31.188931+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 795.4, "last_price": 783.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "STAN_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1615.0, "last_price": 1634.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-11T10:11:17.665074+00:00"}, {"symbol": "STJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1282.0, "last_price": 1318.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "STM_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 18.436, "last_price": 17.66, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "STZ_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 149.07, "last_price": 156.44, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TCAP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 257.0, "last_price": 248.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TMV_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 4.781, "last_price": 4.769, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 184.5, "last_price": 184.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T18:03:34.247734+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.398000000000001, "last_price": 7.132, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 94.79, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 505.0, "last_price": 505.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VSVS_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 410.4, "last_price": 398.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-17T10:04:29.123574+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WEIR_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 2890.0, "last_price": 2808.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T10:35:48.762746+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 224.5, "last_price": 215.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-13T18:17:31.188931+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1299.0, "last_price": 1080.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZAL_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 21.078, "last_price": 20.775, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZION_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 58.99, "last_price": 57.21, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 78, "selection_reason": "Down -14.7% from MA50 with a -2.1% daily drop, suggesting oversold conditions ripe for short-term reversion. Moderate volatility relative to displacement."}, {"symbol": "HAIN_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 72, "selection_reason": "Down -33.2% from MA50, extreme displacement. However, very high volatility and low price raise risk; still a strong mean-reversion signal on distance alone."}, {"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 70, "selection_reason": "Down -28.7% from MA50 with a sharp -3.8% daily decline. Deep oversold displacement supports a bounce, though high volatility tempers conviction."}, {"symbol": "ABDN_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 60, "selection_reason": "Down -3.6% from MA50 with a mild +0.5% daily move, indicating modest oversold positioning with lower volatility risk relative to displacement."}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 55, "selection_reason": "Down -1.6% from MA50 with a -1.1% daily drop. Mild oversold signal with relatively lower volatility among candidates, suitable for conservative mean-reversion."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Small loss (-0.45%), still within mean-reversion window. Hold for bounce.",
        "symbol": "AAL_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat at entry. No reason to exit; awaiting reversion move.",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat at entry. Hold for upside.",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat. No signal to exit.",
        "symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat at entry. Hold.",
        "symbol": "DOCS_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat. Long-held position, hold.",
        "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Loss of -2.2% but still within tolerance. Hold for reversion.",
        "symbol": "LAND_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Profitable (+2.2%). Let winner run.",
        "symbol": "LSEG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Moderate loss (-1.4%). Hold for reversion.",
        "symbol": "MNDI_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat. Hold.",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Small profit. Hold.",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Just opened, flat. Hold.",
        "symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat. Hold.",
        "symbol": "ROR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat. Hold.",
        "symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Largest unrealized loss (-86.85, -2.9%). Position not reverting; cutting to reduce position count toward max of 10.",
        "symbol": "JMT_CFD.PT"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Second largest unrealized loss (-77.89, -2.6%). Price declining from avg_price 558.5 to 544.0 with no reversion signal. Reducing position count.",
        "symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio has 16 active positions, well above the 10-position max. Priority is reducing position count by selling the two worst-performing holdings (JMT, OSB) which show no reversion. No new buys until position count approaches limit. Candidates like BTRW (score 78) and HAIN (score 72) are attractive but adding positions now would worsen the overconcentration issue. Will reassess buys next cycle after sells settle."
}
Selection logs
#744stage12026-03-20T19:04:14.886908+00:00
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down -14.7% from MA50 with a -2.1% daily drop, suggesting oversold conditions ripe for short-term reversion. Moderate volatility relative to displacement.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    },
    {
      "symbol": "HAIN_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Down -33.2% from MA50, extreme displacement. However, very high volatility and low price raise risk; still a strong mean-reversion signal on distance alone.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 72
    },
    {
      "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down -28.7% from MA50 with a sharp -3.8% daily decline. Deep oversold displacement supports a bounce, though high volatility tempers conviction.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 70
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ABDN_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down -3.6% from MA50 with a mild +0.5% daily move, indicating modest oversold positioning with lower volatility risk relative to displacement.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 60
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down -1.6% from MA50 with a -1.1% daily drop. Mild oversold signal with relatively lower volatility among candidates, suitable for conservative mean-reversion.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 55
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "BME_CFD.UK: +7.3% above MA50, not oversold — no mean-reversion long setup",
    "AAL_CFD.UK: +11.7% above MA50, extended to upside — no long mean-reversion case",
    "AAF_CFD.UK: +3.7% above MA50 with +3.2% daily surge — momentum, not reversion",
    "CMBT_CFD.BE: +17.2% above MA50 despite daily dip — still extended, not a clean reversion candidate",
    "BYIT_CFD.UK: Only -3.0% from MA50 but +1.9% daily gain already recovering — limited remaining reversion upside"
  ]
}