Arena run #707
meanrev-v1 • mistralai • mistralai/mistral-large-2512 • US • success
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-18T17:58:33.497657+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-18T18:32:58.078045+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-18T18:33:17.979604+00:00
duration_ms: 19895
Inputs
{
"as_of": "2026-03-18T17:58:33.497657+00:00",
"dry_run": false,
"selected": [
{
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day drop (-26.6%), far below MA50 (-22.1%) and MA200 (-13.4%), high volatility (169%), potential oversold condition.",
"mean_reversion_score": 90
},
{
"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large 1-day gain (24.9%), far above MA50 (+17.8%), high volatility (158%), potential overbought condition.",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Below MA200 (-7.1%) but above MA50 (+8.3%), high volatility (232%), recent moderate gain (2.96%), mixed signals.",
"mean_reversion_score": 75
},
{
"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "1-day drop (-3.96%), below MA50 (-4.5%) but above MA200 (+4.9%), high volatility (163%), potential oversold condition.",
"mean_reversion_score": 70
},
{
"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "1-day gain (11.7%), below MA50 (-5.1%) and MA200 (-6.0%), moderate volatility (87.6%), potential mean-reversion candidate.",
"mean_reversion_score": 65
}
],
"simulate_only": false,
"strict_replay": false,
"universe_symbols": [
"CRST_CFD.UK",
"WTB_CFD.UK",
"ESNT_CFD.UK",
"JDW_CFD.UK",
"CBG_CFD.UK",
"MCG_CFD.UK",
"CCL_CFD.UK",
"SGRO_CFD.UK",
"ABDN_CFD.UK",
"BBY_CFD.UK",
"ATG_CFD.UK",
"BME_CFD.UK",
"BYIT_CFD.UK",
"COR_CFD.US"
]
}Outputs
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Extreme 1-day drop (-26.6%), far below MA50 (-22.1%) and MA200 (-13.4%), high volatility (169%), strong oversold condition.",
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "Large 1-day gain (24.9%), far above MA50 (+17.8%), high volatility (158%), potential overbought condition for mean-reversion.",
"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL (72.49), no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No price movement since entry, no mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL (163.00), no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "EXPD_CFD.US"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL (101.85), no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No price movement since entry, no mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL (74.59), no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No price movement since entry, no mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No price movement since entry, no mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL (23.08), no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "STJ_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL (960.98), no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL (141.31), no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No price movement since entry, no mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Negative unrealized PnL (-130.91) with no recent price recovery, mean-reversion signal weakened.",
"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Negative unrealized PnL (-113.85) and no clear mean-reversion signal in recent price action.",
"symbol": "DLTR_CFD.US"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio adjustments focus on mean-reversion signals. Sold VTY_CFD.UK and DLTR_CFD.US due to negative PnL and lack of recovery. Bought CBG_CFD.UK and CRST_CFD.UK based on extreme price movements and high volatility, indicating potential mean-reversion opportunities. Held positions with no clear mean-reversion signals or positive PnL to avoid overtrading."
}Prompts & responses
#1398 • openrouter • mistralai/mistral-large-2512 • 2026-03-18T18:32:58.117663+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "name": "CREST NICHOLSON HOLDINGS", "sector": "", "last_price": 167.8, "change_1d_pct": 24.85119047619049, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.2720261375977815, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.82963155418549, "volatility_20d_pct": 158.46878099582966, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK", "name": "WHITBREAD PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2691.0, "change_1d_pct": 11.659751037344401, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.969827496214986, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.069507041577781, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.61035263352142, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ESNT_CFD.UK", "name": "ESSENTRA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 108.4, "change_1d_pct": 4.230769230769238, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.40452119530135, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.771484932749797, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.9832071461764, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK", "name": "WETHERSPOON (J.D.) PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 748.5, "change_1d_pct": 9.750733137829904, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.242631058659898, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.290077328071208, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.2373545531062, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 372.74, "change_1d_pct": -26.625984251968504, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.365429078084645, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.129222788055436, "volatility_20d_pct": 169.0552301316783, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 25.72, "change_1d_pct": 2.9623698959167166, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.132760074308242, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.327577202351844, "volatility_20d_pct": 232.19808875565576, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "name": "CARNIVAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1989.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.9594398841139578, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.932242734391812, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.47172238108916, "volatility_20d_pct": 163.30913338012496, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SGRO_CFD.UK", "name": "SEGRO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 789.8, "change_1d_pct": 5.166444740346199, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 16.137238395282736, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.124180991500651, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.28658783635437, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ABDN_CFD.UK", "name": "Aberdeen Group Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 206.2, "change_1d_pct": 0.4873294346978474, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.567353199768042, "volatility_20d_pct": 5122.525857900045, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 722.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.0951403148528382, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.628407265201648, "volatility_20d_pct": 2239.4661443465884, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 313.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.3205128205128194, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8343803356850588, "volatility_20d_pct": 2871.9337920464413, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BME_CFD.UK", "name": "B&M EUROPEAN VALUE RETAIL SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 187.88, "change_1d_pct": 1.0107526881720341, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.318666981973787, "volatility_20d_pct": 3503.713036055361, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 316.4, "change_1d_pct": 1.9329896907216426, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.036395062333752, "volatility_20d_pct": 3610.9502328075146, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "COR_CFD.US", "name": "Cencora Inc.", "sector": "", "last_price": 360.83, "change_1d_pct": 2.95391101236242, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.151297892941108, "volatility_20d_pct": 4690.896698952752, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}Output JSON
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day drop (-26.6%), far below MA50 (-22.1%) and MA200 (-13.4%), high volatility (169%), potential oversold condition.",
"mean_reversion_score": 90
},
{
"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large 1-day gain (24.9%), far above MA50 (+17.8%), high volatility (158%), potential overbought condition.",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Below MA200 (-7.1%) but above MA50 (+8.3%), high volatility (232%), recent moderate gain (2.96%), mixed signals.",
"mean_reversion_score": 75
},
{
"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "1-day drop (-3.96%), below MA50 (-4.5%) but above MA200 (+4.9%), high volatility (163%), potential oversold condition.",
"mean_reversion_score": 70
},
{
"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "1-day gain (11.7%), below MA50 (-5.1%) and MA200 (-6.0%), moderate volatility (87.6%), potential mean-reversion candidate.",
"mean_reversion_score": 65
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Missing MA200 or MA50 data (e.g., ABDN_CFD.UK, BBY_CFD.UK)",
"Non-US symbols excluded due to strategy constraints (all UK symbols except COR_CFD.US)",
"Low volatility or insufficient deviation from moving averages (e.g., SGRO_CFD.UK)",
"Earnings or binary event risk unknown (all candidates)"
]
}#1399 • openrouter • mistralai/mistral-large-2512 • 2026-03-18T18:33:05.693346+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ACM_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 88.42, "last_price": 97.88, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-15T10:57:15.913854+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ADS_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 137.15, "last_price": 138.55, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AIR_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 200.984, "last_price": 187.12, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AMCX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.5, "last_price": 7.365, "unrealized_pnl": -53.999999999999915, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AMH_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 29.595, "last_price": 29.485, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 296.0, "last_price": 296.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T18:49:26.891792+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ATO_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 35.106, "last_price": 38.024, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T10:57:06.928276+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.453, "last_price": 0.453, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.237232289950576, "avg_price": 364.2, "last_price": 373.0, "unrealized_pnl": 72.48764415156516, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T18:18:45.954380+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1070.84, "last_price": 1070.84, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-15T10:57:15.913854+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.748396127376648, "avg_price": 342.92, "last_price": 342.92, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 350.24, "last_price": 350.055, "unrealized_pnl": -1.5846276838739344, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DLTR_CFD.US", "qty": 26.757046022119155, "avg_price": 112.12, "last_price": 107.86500000000001, "unrealized_pnl": -113.85123082411688, "opened_at": "2026-03-17T18:12:35.221859+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 199.3, "last_price": 189.21, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DSY_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 17.881, "last_price": 16.752, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ESTC_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 58.085, "last_price": 54.045, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EVT_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 4.502, "last_price": 4.353, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-11T10:11:17.665074+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EXM_CFD.BE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 10.0, "last_price": 9.933, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EXPD_CFD.US", "qty": 22.01269398686576, "avg_price": 136.285, "last_price": 143.69, "unrealized_pnl": 163.003998972741, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 405.2, "last_price": 394.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FRVIA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 12.709, "last_price": 12.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.488766849725412, "avg_price": 400.6, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 101.84722915626534, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "GO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 6.53, "last_price": 6.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T18:20:59.102726+00:00"}, {"symbol": "GRI_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 189.6, "last_price": 189.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1409.0, "last_price": 1408.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.772002362669817, "avg_price": 1693.0, "last_price": 1693.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T18:15:23.812047+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ITRK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 3942.0, "last_price": 3760.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-13T10:07:39.444598+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "qty": 16.216216216216218, "avg_price": 185.0, "last_price": 189.6, "unrealized_pnl": 74.59459459459451, "opened_at": "2026-03-16T18:18:58.833148+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK", "qty": 4.514672686230249, "avg_price": 664.5, "last_price": 664.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T10:35:48.762746+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JEF_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 47.46, "last_price": 44.27, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T18:07:22.382508+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JMAT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1976.9999999999998, "last_price": 1964.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T10:20:03.276878+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 250.0, "last_price": 257.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "NA9_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 48.578, "last_price": 53.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T10:57:06.928276+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 29.36857562408223, "avg_price": 204.3, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OKTA_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 70.18, "last_price": 79.26, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 151.91, "last_price": 151.91, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T10:33:43.857578+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 424.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "STJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.3076923076923075, "avg_price": 1300.0, "last_price": 1310.0, "unrealized_pnl": 23.076923076923073, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T10:35:48.762746+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 18.4, "last_price": 18.34, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T18:49:26.891792+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "qty": 48.78048780487805, "avg_price": 184.50000000000003, "last_price": 204.2, "unrealized_pnl": 960.9756097560957, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 151.8, "last_price": 224.82, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.398000000000001, "last_price": 6.95, "unrealized_pnl": -181.67072181670738, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 32.48511099079589, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 96.7, "unrealized_pnl": 141.3102328099624, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ULTA_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 535.2, "last_price": 523.22, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T18:15:23.812047+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VSVS_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 425.0, "last_price": 421.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-16T18:18:58.833148+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 15.584415584415584, "avg_price": 385.0, "last_price": 376.6, "unrealized_pnl": -130.90909090909057, "opened_at": "2026-03-11T10:11:17.665074+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WEIR_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 2890.0, "last_price": 2842.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T10:03:26.036362+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 224.5, "last_price": 222.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1087.0, "last_price": 1064.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T10:20:03.276878+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.2727272727272725, "avg_price": 412.5, "last_price": 412.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T09:32:59.506254+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 263.4, "last_price": 257.0, "unrealized_pnl": -72.89293849658289, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 159.76, "last_price": 144.45, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 90, "selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day drop (-26.6%), far below MA50 (-22.1%) and MA200 (-13.4%), high volatility (169%), potential oversold condition."}, {"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 85, "selection_reason": "Large 1-day gain (24.9%), far above MA50 (+17.8%), high volatility (158%), potential overbought condition."}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 75, "selection_reason": "Below MA200 (-7.1%) but above MA50 (+8.3%), high volatility (232%), recent moderate gain (2.96%), mixed signals."}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 70, "selection_reason": "1-day drop (-3.96%), below MA50 (-4.5%) but above MA200 (+4.9%), high volatility (163%), potential oversold condition."}, {"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 65, "selection_reason": "1-day gain (11.7%), below MA50 (-5.1%) and MA200 (-6.0%), moderate volatility (87.6%), potential mean-reversion candidate."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}Output JSON
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Extreme 1-day drop (-26.6%), far below MA50 (-22.1%) and MA200 (-13.4%), high volatility (169%), strong oversold condition.",
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "Large 1-day gain (24.9%), far above MA50 (+17.8%), high volatility (158%), potential overbought condition for mean-reversion.",
"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL (72.49), no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No price movement since entry, no mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL (163.00), no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "EXPD_CFD.US"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL (101.85), no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No price movement since entry, no mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL (74.59), no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No price movement since entry, no mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No price movement since entry, no mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL (23.08), no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "STJ_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL (960.98), no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL (141.31), no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No price movement since entry, no mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Negative unrealized PnL (-130.91) with no recent price recovery, mean-reversion signal weakened.",
"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Negative unrealized PnL (-113.85) and no clear mean-reversion signal in recent price action.",
"symbol": "DLTR_CFD.US"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio adjustments focus on mean-reversion signals. Sold VTY_CFD.UK and DLTR_CFD.US due to negative PnL and lack of recovery. Bought CBG_CFD.UK and CRST_CFD.UK based on extreme price movements and high volatility, indicating potential mean-reversion opportunities. Held positions with no clear mean-reversion signals or positive PnL to avoid overtrading."
}Selection logs
#696 • stage1 • 2026-03-18T18:33:05.682933+00:00
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day drop (-26.6%), far below MA50 (-22.1%) and MA200 (-13.4%), high volatility (169%), potential oversold condition.",
"mean_reversion_score": 90
},
{
"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large 1-day gain (24.9%), far above MA50 (+17.8%), high volatility (158%), potential overbought condition.",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Below MA200 (-7.1%) but above MA50 (+8.3%), high volatility (232%), recent moderate gain (2.96%), mixed signals.",
"mean_reversion_score": 75
},
{
"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "1-day drop (-3.96%), below MA50 (-4.5%) but above MA200 (+4.9%), high volatility (163%), potential oversold condition.",
"mean_reversion_score": 70
},
{
"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "1-day gain (11.7%), below MA50 (-5.1%) and MA200 (-6.0%), moderate volatility (87.6%), potential mean-reversion candidate.",
"mean_reversion_score": 65
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Missing MA200 or MA50 data (e.g., ABDN_CFD.UK, BBY_CFD.UK)",
"Non-US symbols excluded due to strategy constraints (all UK symbols except COR_CFD.US)",
"Low volatility or insufficient deviation from moving averages (e.g., SGRO_CFD.UK)",
"Earnings or binary event risk unknown (all candidates)"
]
}