Arena run #693
meanrev-v1 • deepseek • deepseek/deepseek-chat • US • success
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-17T18:12:35.221859+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-17T19:40:14.825358+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-17T19:41:00.188959+00:00
duration_ms: 45362
Inputs
{
"as_of": "2026-03-17T18:12:35.221859+00:00",
"dry_run": false,
"selected": [
{
"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Significant negative deviation from MA200 and MA50, high volatility",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large negative deviation from MA200, moderate volatility",
"mean_reversion_score": 80
},
{
"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Negative deviation from MA50, high volatility",
"mean_reversion_score": 75
},
{
"symbol": "DOCS_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Negative deviation from MA200 and MA50, moderate volatility",
"mean_reversion_score": 70
},
{
"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Negative deviation from MA200, moderate volatility",
"mean_reversion_score": 65
}
],
"simulate_only": false,
"strict_replay": false,
"universe_symbols": [
"WTB_CFD.UK",
"ESNT_CFD.UK",
"SAFE_CFD.UK",
"JDW_CFD.UK",
"UTG_CFD.UK",
"IWG_CFD.UK",
"KGF_CFD.UK",
"RHIM_CFD.UK",
"RSW_CFD.UK",
"DLN_CFD.UK",
"MCG_CFD.UK",
"CCL_CFD.UK",
"SGRO_CFD.UK",
"ABDN_CFD.UK",
"OCDO_CFD.UK",
"ADJ_CFD.DE",
"DOCS_CFD.UK",
"VTY_CFD.UK",
"SMIN_CFD.UK",
"BBY_CFD.UK",
"MAB_CFD.UK",
"IMI_CFD.UK",
"DOM_CFD.UK",
"IPO_CFD.UK",
"ATG_CFD.UK",
"BME_CFD.UK",
"WKP_CFD.UK",
"HLMA_CFD.UK",
"FUTR_CFD.UK",
"DPLM_CFD.UK",
"DLTR_CFD.US",
"ASY_CFD.FR",
"CW_CFD.US",
"AAL_CFD.UK",
"CO_CFD.FR"
]
}Outputs
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Significant negative deviation from MA200 and MA50, high volatility",
"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "Large negative deviation from MA200, moderate volatility",
"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "ADS_CFD.DE"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "EMG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "GRI_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "IEP_CFD.BE"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "IHG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Negative unrealized PnL, but no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "ROR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Significant positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Significant unrealized loss, mean-reversion opportunity exhausted",
"symbol": "CCC_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Significant unrealized loss, mean-reversion opportunity exhausted",
"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is adjusted to capitalize on mean-reversion opportunities while avoiding overtrading. Two positions with significant unrealized losses are sold to free up capital. Two new positions are bought based on their strong mean-reversion scores and significant deviations from moving averages. The rest of the portfolio is held due to either positive unrealized PnL or no clear mean-reversion opportunities."
}Prompts & responses
#1370 • openrouter • deepseek/deepseek-chat • 2026-03-17T19:40:14.856644+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK", "name": "WHITBREAD PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2691.0, "change_1d_pct": 11.659751037344401, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.969827496214986, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.069507041577781, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.61035263352142, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ESNT_CFD.UK", "name": "ESSENTRA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 108.4, "change_1d_pct": 4.230769230769238, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.40452119530135, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.771484932749797, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.9832071461764, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "name": "SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 802.5, "change_1d_pct": 13.187588152327212, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 21.40724384452035, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.29872606002229, "volatility_20d_pct": 81.07249455345375, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK", "name": "WETHERSPOON (J.D.) PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 748.5, "change_1d_pct": 9.750733137829904, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.242631058659898, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.290077328071208, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.2373545531062, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 567.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.4639927073837784, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.929923575376698, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.6875042216270137, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.84223442053181, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "name": "IWG PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 205.4, "change_1d_pct": -16.5718927701056, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.40871742234894, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.856111173800208, "volatility_20d_pct": 135.80434164824575, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK", "name": "KINGFISHER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 347.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.6020106445890034, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.583930168759967, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.639688157278489, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.64906606382688, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "RHI MAGNESITA NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 2795.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.3809523809523725, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.811460460804897, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.895008018562113, "volatility_20d_pct": 141.33746334612064, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK", "name": "RENISHAW PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4100.0, "change_1d_pct": 18.155619596541793, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 36.779911314574385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.333028240759926, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.61568245477878, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 25.72, "change_1d_pct": 2.9623698959167166, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.132760074308242, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.327577202351844, "volatility_20d_pct": 232.19808875565576, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "name": "CARNIVAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1989.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.9594398841139578, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.932242734391812, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.47172238108916, "volatility_20d_pct": 163.30913338012496, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SGRO_CFD.UK", "name": "SEGRO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 789.8, "change_1d_pct": 5.166444740346199, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 16.137238395282736, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.124180991500651, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.28658783635437, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ABDN_CFD.UK", "name": "Aberdeen Group Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 215.2, "change_1d_pct": -0.6463527239150557, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 13.219747060140353, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.663782514155023, "volatility_20d_pct": 74.75396598460024, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 217.0, "change_1d_pct": -21.148255813953487, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.81606625159202, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.48311196636071, "volatility_20d_pct": 241.3119670937803, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ADJ_CFD.DE", "name": "ADLER GROUP SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.192, "change_1d_pct": 3.7837837837837895, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.07579130771464, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.6289308176100628, "volatility_20d_pct": 281.9328754959748, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOCS_CFD.UK", "name": "DR. MARTENS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 65.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.501501501501501, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.08259339811949, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.14348468939509, "volatility_20d_pct": 121.2025974369199, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "name": "VISTRY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 403.2, "change_1d_pct": -44.21693414499169, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -35.825419675413826, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -36.113069725802745, "volatility_20d_pct": 213.0917779123437, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SMIN_CFD.UK", "name": "SMITHS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2544.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.4333845019038671, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 14.948150770494873, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.167383226889343, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.718462979927, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 759.18, "change_1d_pct": 5.222453222453205, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 33.313724414201815, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.832962232591, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.25956465831767, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MAB_CFD.UK", "name": "MITCHELLS & BUTLERS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 292.81, "change_1d_pct": 14.37890625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.595067041457764, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.935906392690597, "volatility_20d_pct": 118.87119977937589, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IMI_CFD.UK", "name": "IMI PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2774.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.7583081570997, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 25.227479847754264, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.661876238540865, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.69330898337377, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 189.21, "change_1d_pct": 4.190528634361246, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -12.46581454882838, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.428944053991102, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.812071272284, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "IP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 57.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.873935264054516, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.233643652522883, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.027486732888828, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.82123635439407, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 305.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.2735042735042805, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.344980756373573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1704016694101371, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.9931345477538, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BME_CFD.UK", "name": "B&M EUROPEAN VALUE RETAIL SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 180.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.5799502899751507, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.510144533683704, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.6906975618860693, "volatility_20d_pct": 107.67302074828436, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HLMA_CFD.UK", "name": "HALMA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3904.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.548209366391179, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 16.52280895184093, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.778818225170168, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.60562444492528, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.6, "change_1d_pct": -20.82242990654205, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.68377383888033, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -24.301477407850992, "volatility_20d_pct": 153.59085037557008, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK", "name": "DIPLOMA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 5220.0, "change_1d_pct": -5.434782608695654, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.8180942215069855, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.664614313757087, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.77890721911896, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLTR_CFD.US", "name": "Dollar Tree Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 115.79, "change_1d_pct": -0.10352859977568185, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.524831570032731, "volatility_20d_pct": 3589.913318697127, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ASY_CFD.FR", "name": "Assystem SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 44.6, "change_1d_pct": 0.5636978579481422, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1656251385010918, "volatility_20d_pct": 4780.971545500114, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CW_CFD.US", "name": "Curtiss-Wright Corporation", "sector": "", "last_price": 684.22, "change_1d_pct": 1.96107650582662, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 13.161251227173265, "volatility_20d_pct": 4308.002175856081, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AAL_CFD.UK", "name": "ANGLO AMERICAN PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3586.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.055803571428580945, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 11.748904636364198, "volatility_20d_pct": 4209.946938281094, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CO_CFD.FR", "name": "Casino Guichard Perrachon", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.2196, "change_1d_pct": -3.0891438658429027, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.3057895892076345, "volatility_20d_pct": 3846.671951006259, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}Output JSON
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Significant negative deviation from MA200 and MA50, high volatility",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large negative deviation from MA200, moderate volatility",
"mean_reversion_score": 80
},
{
"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Negative deviation from MA50, high volatility",
"mean_reversion_score": 75
},
{
"symbol": "DOCS_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Negative deviation from MA200 and MA50, moderate volatility",
"mean_reversion_score": 70
},
{
"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Negative deviation from MA200, moderate volatility",
"mean_reversion_score": 65
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"High volatility",
"Positive deviation from MA200 or MA50",
"Unknown sector",
"Unknown earnings date"
]
}#1371 • openrouter • deepseek/deepseek-chat • 2026-03-17T19:40:23.545578+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.6220600162206003, "avg_price": 1849.5, "last_price": 1871.0, "unrealized_pnl": 34.8742903487429, "opened_at": "2026-03-10T10:41:24.306870+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ADJ_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.184, "last_price": 0.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T21:00:47.737392+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ADS_CFD.DE", "qty": 21.873860736419978, "avg_price": 137.15, "last_price": 140.6, "unrealized_pnl": 75.46481954064868, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AIR_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 200.984, "last_price": 187.12, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AMH_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 29.634999999999998, "last_price": 28.67, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "qty": 75.1503006012024, "avg_price": 39.92, "last_price": 40.1, "unrealized_pnl": 13.527054108216412, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.135135135135135, "avg_price": 296.0, "last_price": 296.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T21:00:47.737392+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "qty": 4.129387474191328, "avg_price": 726.5, "last_price": 726.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.453, "last_price": 0.296, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T17:33:48.338981+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.237232289950576, "avg_price": 364.2, "last_price": 373.0, "unrealized_pnl": 72.48764415156516, "opened_at": "2026-03-10T10:41:24.306870+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 204.0, "last_price": 203.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T18:49:26.891792+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYW6_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 3.005, "last_price": 2.94, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 458.2, "last_price": 372.74, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-08T18:08:31.007911+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCC_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.007387508394896, "avg_price": 2978.0, "last_price": 2926.0, "unrealized_pnl": -52.38415043653459, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.5416238437821173, "avg_price": 1945.9999999999998, "last_price": 1849.0, "unrealized_pnl": -149.537512846865, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CO_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.171, "last_price": 0.165, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T10:33:43.857578+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 2911.0, "last_price": 2852.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 422.705, "last_price": 388.21500000000003, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EMG_CFD.UK", "qty": 11.857707509881424, "avg_price": 252.99999999999997, "last_price": 253.0, "unrealized_pnl": 3.370163173565693e-13, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T18:15:23.812047+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR", "qty": 63.29113924050633, "avg_price": 47.4, "last_price": 51.8, "unrealized_pnl": 278.48101265822777, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 474.05, "last_price": 437.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T09:32:59.506254+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FLO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 9.875, "last_price": 9.245000000000001, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FRVIA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 12.709, "last_price": 11.64, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 22.466300549176236, "avg_price": 400.6, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 305.54168746879606, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "GRI_CFD.UK", "qty": 15.822784810126583, "avg_price": 189.6, "last_price": 189.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T09:32:59.506254+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1408.0, "last_price": 1275.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.600917431192661, "avg_price": 348.8, "last_price": 348.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-16T10:12:30.296045+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IEP_CFD.BE", "qty": 582.5242718446601, "avg_price": 5.15, "last_price": 5.5, "unrealized_pnl": 203.88349514563083, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IHG_CFD.UK", "qty": 23.21083172147002, "avg_price": 129.25, "last_price": 130.0, "unrealized_pnl": 17.408123791102515, "opened_at": "2026-03-07T10:14:47.113218+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK", "qty": 4.514672686230249, "avg_price": 664.5, "last_price": 664.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T10:35:48.762746+00:00"}, {"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK", "qty": 9.505703422053232, "avg_price": 315.6, "last_price": 315.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T18:15:23.812047+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LXS_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 20.34, "last_price": 20.025, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 25.72, "last_price": 23.88, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-08T18:08:31.007911+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 217.0, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.743061772605193, "avg_price": 558.5, "last_price": 558.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 59.24560595089197, "avg_price": 151.91000000000003, "last_price": 152.7, "unrealized_pnl": 46.804028701202505, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T10:27:11.178069+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.1764705882352942, "avg_price": 2550.0, "last_price": 2550.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-10T18:24:41.570614+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 416.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ROR_CFD.UK", "qty": 9.50449879609682, "avg_price": 315.64, "last_price": 309.4, "unrealized_pnl": -59.308072487644246, "opened_at": "2026-03-16T10:12:30.296045+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "qty": 4.237288135593221, "avg_price": 708.0, "last_price": 708.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-10T18:24:41.570614+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "qty": 326.0869565217392, "avg_price": 18.4, "last_price": 18.48, "unrealized_pnl": 26.086956521739737, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T18:03:34.247734+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "qty": 81.30081300813009, "avg_price": 184.5, "last_price": 204.2, "unrealized_pnl": 1601.6260162601618, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T18:03:34.247734+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 97.45533297238767, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 96.7, "unrealized_pnl": 423.9306984298872, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "qty": 5.9405940594059405, "avg_price": 505.0, "last_price": 505.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 427.6, "last_price": 406.1, "unrealized_pnl": -150.84190832553787, "opened_at": "2026-03-11T10:11:17.665074+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 224.5, "last_price": 220.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1299.0, "last_price": 1080.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.2727272727272725, "avg_price": 412.5, "last_price": 412.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 263.4, "last_price": 240.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.55863539445629, "avg_price": 2345.0, "last_price": 2345.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-13T18:17:31.188931+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 85, "selection_reason": "Significant negative deviation from MA200 and MA50, high volatility"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 80, "selection_reason": "Large negative deviation from MA200, moderate volatility"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 75, "selection_reason": "Negative deviation from MA50, high volatility"}, {"symbol": "DOCS_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 70, "selection_reason": "Negative deviation from MA200 and MA50, moderate volatility"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 65, "selection_reason": "Negative deviation from MA200, moderate volatility"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}Output JSON
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Significant negative deviation from MA200 and MA50, high volatility",
"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "Large negative deviation from MA200, moderate volatility",
"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "ADS_CFD.DE"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "EMG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "GRI_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "IEP_CFD.BE"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "IHG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Negative unrealized PnL, but no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "ROR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Significant positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant deviation from mean, no clear mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Significant unrealized loss, mean-reversion opportunity exhausted",
"symbol": "CCC_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Significant unrealized loss, mean-reversion opportunity exhausted",
"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is adjusted to capitalize on mean-reversion opportunities while avoiding overtrading. Two positions with significant unrealized losses are sold to free up capital. Two new positions are bought based on their strong mean-reversion scores and significant deviations from moving averages. The rest of the portfolio is held due to either positive unrealized PnL or no clear mean-reversion opportunities."
}Selection logs
#682 • stage1 • 2026-03-17T19:40:23.543083+00:00
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Significant negative deviation from MA200 and MA50, high volatility",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large negative deviation from MA200, moderate volatility",
"mean_reversion_score": 80
},
{
"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Negative deviation from MA50, high volatility",
"mean_reversion_score": 75
},
{
"symbol": "DOCS_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Negative deviation from MA200 and MA50, moderate volatility",
"mean_reversion_score": 70
},
{
"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Negative deviation from MA200, moderate volatility",
"mean_reversion_score": 65
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"High volatility",
"Positive deviation from MA200 or MA50",
"Unknown sector",
"Unknown earnings date"
]
}