Arena run #655

meanrev-v1anthropicanthropic/claude-opus-4.6USsuccess
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-15T18:15:23.812047+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-15T21:43:00.358610+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-15T21:43:45.832223+00:00
duration_ms: 45472
Inputs
{
  "as_of": "2026-03-15T18:15:23.812047+00:00",
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [
    {
      "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "-13.4% 1d drop, lowest 20d vol in cohort (72.6%), -11.5% below MA50 creating deep short-term oversold; high reversion probability",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "-8.5% 1d drop while still +7.3% above MA200; pullback within uptrend, -3.2% below MA50, vol 83% manageable",
      "mean_reversion_score": 82
    },
    {
      "symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "-5.4% 1d drop, +4.8% above MA200 (uptrend intact), -4.7% below MA50 creating short-term oversold, vol 82%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "-7% 1d drop, -11% below MA50 deeply oversold short-term, vol 75% relatively contained for mega-cap tech; bounce candidate",
      "mean_reversion_score": 75
    },
    {
      "symbol": "LTA_CFD.FR",
      "selection_reason": "-8.3% 1d drop, -8.6% below MA50, vol 77% moderate; sharp single-day selloff in otherwise range-bound name near MA200",
      "mean_reversion_score": 72
    }
  ],
  "simulate_only": false,
  "strict_replay": false,
  "universe_symbols": [
    "SAFE_CFD.UK",
    "UTG_CFD.UK",
    "WIX_CFD.UK",
    "KGF_CFD.UK",
    "CBG_CFD.UK",
    "SGRO_CFD.UK",
    "EMG_CFD.UK",
    "OCDO_CFD.UK",
    "LRE_CFD.UK",
    "LIO_CFD.UK",
    "SMIN_CFD.UK",
    "BBY_CFD.UK",
    "CCC_CFD.UK",
    "DOM_CFD.UK",
    "OSB_CFD.UK",
    "ATG_CFD.UK",
    "BME_CFD.UK",
    "GROW_CFD.UK",
    "WEIR_CFD.UK",
    "BYIT_CFD.UK",
    "WKP_CFD.UK",
    "ANTO_CFD.UK",
    "MPT_CFD.US",
    "DPLM_CFD.UK",
    "ADBE_CFD.US",
    "LTA_CFD.FR",
    "MTN_CFD.US",
    "IGG_CFD.UK",
    "WDC_CFD.US",
    "GT_CFD.US",
    "HMSO_CFD.UK",
    "MSLH_CFD.UK",
    "AML_CFD.UK",
    "UKW_CFD.UK",
    "SBGI_CFD.US",
    "ICG_CFD.UK",
    "GRI_CFD.UK",
    "SGL_CFD.DE",
    "NXST_CFD.US",
    "THG_CFD.UK",
    "SHC_CFD.UK",
    "ABBV_CFD.US",
    "UBI_CFD.FR",
    "GRG_CFD.UK",
    "ULTA_CFD.US",
    "GDX_CFD.ETF",
    "VBK_CFD.DE",
    "STX_CFD.US"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Score 82; -8.5% 1d pullback within uptrend (+7.3% above MA200), high reversion probability",
        "symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Score 75; -7% 1d drop, -11% below MA50 deeply oversold mega-cap tech bounce candidate",
        "symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Top candidate score 88; -13.4% 1d drop creates deep oversold condition, high reversion probability",
        "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Candidate score 78; -5.4% 1d drop in uptrend, short-term oversold",
        "symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Candidate score 72; sharp selloff near MA200, reversion potential",
        "symbol": "LTA_CFD.FR"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Small unrealized gain, position still developing",
        "symbol": "CTT_CFD.PT"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL +15.60, holding for further reversion",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat, no reason to exit prematurely",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Recently opened, allowing time for reversion",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Recently opened, allowing time for reversion",
        "symbol": "FICO_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Holding, no adverse signal",
        "symbol": "LAND_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Holding, no adverse signal",
        "symbol": "LSEG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Holding, no adverse signal",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Recently opened, holding",
        "symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Just opened, allowing time",
        "symbol": "WEIR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Recently opened, holding",
        "symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Holding, no adverse signal",
        "symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "No mean-reversion signal; stale flat position, freeing slot for higher-conviction candidates",
        "symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "No mean-reversion signal; flat position with no catalyst, reducing position count toward max 10",
        "symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio is overweight at 17 active positions vs 10 max. Selling 2 stale flat positions (UTG, TRN) with no mean-reversion signal. Adding OSB (score 82, pullback in uptrend) and ADBE (score 75, deeply oversold mega-cap). ICG, DPLM, LTA already held and rank as top candidates - confirming hold. Will continue trimming stale positions in subsequent runs to converge toward 10-position limit."
}
Prompts & responses
#1294openrouteranthropic/claude-opus-4.62026-03-15T21:43:00.402490+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "name": "SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 802.5, "change_1d_pct": 13.187588152327212, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 21.40724384452035, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.29872606002229, "volatility_20d_pct": 81.07249455345375, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 567.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.4639927073837784, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.929923575376698, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.6875042216270137, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.84223442053181, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "name": "WICKES GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 247.5, "change_1d_pct": 15.984816533108393, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.647646929530737, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.198455173494668, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.25206447406164, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK", "name": "KINGFISHER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 347.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.6020106445890034, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.583930168759967, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.639688157278489, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.64906606382688, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 497.8, "change_1d_pct": -5.89792060491493, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.793508864321094, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.592137485786795, "volatility_20d_pct": 116.76618625853061, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SGRO_CFD.UK", "name": "SEGRO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 789.8, "change_1d_pct": 5.166444740346199, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 16.137238395282736, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.124180991500651, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.28658783635437, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EMG_CFD.UK", "name": "MAN GROUP PLC/JERSEY", "sector": "", "last_price": 269.6, "change_1d_pct": 2.353834472285521, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 42.186331073171914, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 15.516783354614262, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.92367167139048, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 217.0, "change_1d_pct": -21.148255813953487, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.81606625159202, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.48311196636071, "volatility_20d_pct": 241.3119670937803, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK", "name": "LANCASHIRE HOLDINGS LTD", "sector": "", "last_price": 647.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.26586102719033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.266967093949116, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.0131237932627712, "volatility_20d_pct": 79.5840954070324, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 270.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.784431137724557, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.148878096081223, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.440258238208905, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.52252179896075, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SMIN_CFD.UK", "name": "SMITHS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2544.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.4333845019038671, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 14.948150770494873, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.167383226889343, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.718462979927, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 722.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.0951403148528382, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.628407265201648, "volatility_20d_pct": 2239.4661443465884, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCC_CFD.UK", "name": "COMPUTACENTER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3230.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.000625390869292, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.7824360276067726, "volatility_20d_pct": 3216.515047539989, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 189.21, "change_1d_pct": 4.190528634361246, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -12.46581454882838, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.428944053991102, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.812071272284, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK", "name": "OSB GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 575.5, "change_1d_pct": -8.50556438791733, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.26309045372473, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.1605502163448818, "volatility_20d_pct": 83.79306172690484, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 305.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.2735042735042805, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.344980756373573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1704016694101371, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.9931345477538, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BME_CFD.UK", "name": "B&M EUROPEAN VALUE RETAIL SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 180.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.5799502899751507, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.510144533683704, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.6906975618860693, "volatility_20d_pct": 107.67302074828436, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GROW_CFD.UK", "name": "MOLTEN VENTURES PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 465.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.572739187418093, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.569628774815076, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.275686024250158, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.72658030340939, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WEIR_CFD.UK", "name": "WEIR GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 2968.0, "change_1d_pct": -7.250000000000001, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 13.608616555186948, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.0329806894725966, "volatility_20d_pct": 126.53973442920609, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.4, "change_1d_pct": -12.674418604651173, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.03446775272175, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.34777426817815, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.82535981934274, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ANTO_CFD.UK", "name": "ANTOFAGASTA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3679.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.3622274757026505, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 35.757421893125986, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.9752454322435997, "volatility_20d_pct": 123.31702281679799, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MPT_CFD.US", "name": "MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST INC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4.91, "change_1d_pct": -10.401459854014606, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.14787619193310508, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.138447146866223, "volatility_20d_pct": 139.4173956877411, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK", "name": "DIPLOMA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 5220.0, "change_1d_pct": -5.434782608695654, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.8180942215069855, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.664614313757087, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.77890721911896, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US", "name": "Adobe Systems Incorporated", "sector": "", "last_price": 254.76, "change_1d_pct": -6.991347522908997, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -24.950575375976236, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.024807300743555, "volatility_20d_pct": 75.42837402664499, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LTA_CFD.FR", "name": "ALTAMIR", "sector": "", "last_price": 26.55, "change_1d_pct": -8.290155440414503, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.659993998817693, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.646607227894187, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.90024899659345, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MTN_CFD.US", "name": "VAIL RESORTS INC", "sector": "", "last_price": 134.14, "change_1d_pct": -1.251472320376923, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -9.650746994476266, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.409284431756342, "volatility_20d_pct": 78.42663697712976, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IGG_CFD.UK", "name": "IG GROUP HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1356.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.1963470319634757, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 21.69129359819437, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.822701129829392, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.02278066392904, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WDC_CFD.US", "name": "WESTERN DIGITAL CORP", "sector": "", "last_price": 277.84, "change_1d_pct": 0.33222591362125353, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 93.67833739443938, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.13762446177886, "volatility_20d_pct": 155.57328227015603, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GT_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 6.9, "change_1d_pct": -5.089408528198058, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.075636716333058, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.546752576162355, "volatility_20d_pct": 122.51572489644428, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "HAMMERSON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 355.4, "change_1d_pct": 14.129736673089276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.516025502913806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.006914897239172, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.54938293511039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "name": "MARSHALLS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 182.32, "change_1d_pct": 0.8407079646017612, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.111863069088763, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.139091576985178, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.4204512350097, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "name": "ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL", "sector": "", "last_price": 40.48, "change_1d_pct": -8.125283704039955, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -40.753533675571454, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -29.11725770639697, "volatility_20d_pct": 134.03421867122054, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "name": "GREENCOAT UK WIND PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 96.65, "change_1d_pct": -2.864321608040199, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.509595378826178, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.518333665048904, "volatility_20d_pct": 52.20244024852636, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SBGI_CFD.US", "name": "SINCLAIR INC", "sector": "", "last_price": 14.31, "change_1d_pct": -1.919122686771757, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.4883451969544659, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.4439016490782848, "volatility_20d_pct": 151.16131595505473, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "name": "ICG Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 1719.0, "change_1d_pct": -13.356854838709676, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.041741119434038, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.540628787118589, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.59006184069659, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GRI_CFD.UK", "name": "GRAINGER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 192.4, "change_1d_pct": 0.08322929671245038, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.9312468607917275, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9128310349964197, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.43116862190418, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SGL_CFD.DE", "name": "SGL Carbon SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 3.625, "change_1d_pct": -2.658431793770144, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.144388625262497, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.381859355412669, "volatility_20d_pct": 78.92643748151579, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NXST_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 236.39, "change_1d_pct": -3.392047079978755, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.26418454796057, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.009017653277881, "volatility_20d_pct": 103.87063237790765, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "name": "THG PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 35.48, "change_1d_pct": -20.090090090090097, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.031971945380275, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -18.256005234564732, "volatility_20d_pct": 150.3458448856807, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SHC_CFD.UK", "name": "SHAFTESBURY CAPITAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 142.4, "change_1d_pct": -1.0423905489923557, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.709599807723139, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.43432201895556855, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.20998562569682, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ABBV_CFD.US", "name": "AbbVie Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 232.35, "change_1d_pct": -1.6258097294550966, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.546593186617497, "volatility_20d_pct": 2402.931036269666, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UBI_CFD.FR", "name": "UBISoft Entertainment", "sector": "", "last_price": 4.051, "change_1d_pct": 1.681726907630532, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -46.56007704002717, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.953918501878949, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.88218245391758, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GRG_CFD.UK", "name": "GREGGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1672.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.3374536464771287, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.4910380116743616, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.012004962637647, "volatility_20d_pct": 108.66633645285333, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ULTA_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 542.6, "change_1d_pct": -16.2589705995833, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.3761845388777014, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -18.174097049803716, "volatility_20d_pct": 81.51499528061828, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GDX_CFD.ETF", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 94.67, "change_1d_pct": -9.975275770254843, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 25.53738274381463, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.393741521351359, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.47770237612703, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VBK_CFD.DE", "name": "VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 35.075, "change_1d_pct": 14.597967785147192, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 114.29027458175214, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 36.82315933354345, "volatility_20d_pct": 107.69743440491352, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "STX_CFD.US", "name": "SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS", "sector": "", "last_price": 388.64, "change_1d_pct": -1.3353643056613351, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 58.794008860251346, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.822719180702383, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.56106636030106, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "-13.4% 1d drop, lowest 20d vol in cohort (72.6%), -11.5% below MA50 creating deep short-term oversold; high reversion probability",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "-8.5% 1d drop while still +7.3% above MA200; pullback within uptrend, -3.2% below MA50, vol 83% manageable",
      "mean_reversion_score": 82
    },
    {
      "symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "-5.4% 1d drop, +4.8% above MA200 (uptrend intact), -4.7% below MA50 creating short-term oversold, vol 82%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "-7% 1d drop, -11% below MA50 deeply oversold short-term, vol 75% relatively contained for mega-cap tech; bounce candidate",
      "mean_reversion_score": 75
    },
    {
      "symbol": "LTA_CFD.FR",
      "selection_reason": "-8.3% 1d drop, -8.6% below MA50, vol 77% moderate; sharp single-day selloff in otherwise range-bound name near MA200",
      "mean_reversion_score": 72
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "ULTA/BYIT/THG/OCADO: Extreme 1d drops (>12%) likely event/earnings-driven binary moves",
    "BBY/CCC/ABBV: Missing MA200 and/or extreme volatility (>2000%) indicating data quality issues",
    "SAFE/WIX/HMSO/VBK: Large positive 1d moves (+13-16%) — momentum not reversion candidates",
    "AML/GT/UBI: Deep structural downtrends (>-23% from MA200 and MA50) — trend continuation risk",
    "WDC/EMG/STX: Massively extended above MA200 (>40%) — not mean-reversion setups",
    "GDX_CFD.ETF: ETF excluded; sector/commodity-driven move with high vol 115%"
  ]
}
#1295openrouteranthropic/claude-opus-4.62026-03-15T21:43:23.513546+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1868.5, "last_price": 1846.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ADS_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 137.15, "last_price": 142.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AMCX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.58, "last_price": 7.46, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AMH_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 29.63, "last_price": 29.16, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 59.0, "last_price": 58.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 28.6, "last_price": 27.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BEKB_CFD.BE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 38.9, "last_price": 40.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 364.2, "last_price": 373.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T18:03:34.247734+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 310.3, "last_price": 295.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-10T18:24:41.570614+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BXP_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 60.835, "last_price": 57.754999999999995, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 94.6, "last_price": 108.935, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CAR_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.285, "last_price": 95.88499999999999, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.547359231776517, "avg_price": 458.2, "last_price": 458.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-10T18:24:41.570614+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCC_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 2978.0, "last_price": 3218.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1945.9999999999998, "last_price": 1858.65, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T10:27:11.178069+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CPAY_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 321.845, "last_price": 317.015, "unrealized_pnl": -45.02167192282037, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T18:18:45.954380+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 423.05499999999995, "last_price": 388.21500000000003, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CTT_CFD.PT", "qty": 445.10385756676556, "avg_price": 6.74, "last_price": 6.76, "unrealized_pnl": 8.90207715133512, "opened_at": "2026-03-13T10:07:39.444598+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.6556291390728477, "avg_price": 1812.0, "last_price": 1812.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.5870841487279843, "avg_price": 5110.0, "last_price": 5110.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T10:03:26.036362+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 55.55, "last_price": 53.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-07T10:14:47.113218+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ETSY_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 44.13, "last_price": 50.905, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 405.2, "last_price": 395.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-08T10:05:58.226220+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FICO_CFD.US", "qty": 2.6609662855571625, "avg_price": 1127.4099999999999, "last_price": 1127.4099999999999, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T18:06:47.909233+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FME_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 38.38, "last_price": 38.14, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FRE_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 49.156, "last_price": 47.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T10:57:06.928276+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1408.0, "last_price": 1342.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HO_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 254.566, "last_price": 251.7, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.772002362669817, "avg_price": 1693.0, "last_price": 1693.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ITRK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 3942.0, "last_price": 3760.0, "unrealized_pnl": -138.5083713850837, "opened_at": "2026-03-13T10:07:39.444598+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JBLU_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 4.57, "last_price": 4.5600000000000005, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T18:20:59.102726+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LAND_CFD.UK", "qty": 5.1194539249146755, "avg_price": 586.0, "last_price": 586.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LOPE_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 157.02, "last_price": 152.77, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T17:33:48.338981+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LPX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 86.45, "last_price": 82.99, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSEG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.3525264394829612, "avg_price": 8510.0, "last_price": 8510.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 20.15, "last_price": 19.78, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LTA_CFD.FR", "qty": 115.38461538461539, "avg_price": 26.0, "last_price": 26.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T10:03:26.036362+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LXS_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 13.14, "last_price": 13.64, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T10:33:43.857578+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MTG_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 26.27, "last_price": 25.98, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "NXT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 12990.0, "last_price": 12770.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-07T10:14:47.113218+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 14.684287812041115, "avg_price": 204.3, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OKTA_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 70.18, "last_price": 78.38, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ORCL_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 153.02, "last_price": 150.49, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-08T18:08:31.007911+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 558.5, "last_price": 558.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-11T10:11:17.665074+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 19.74853531696399, "avg_price": 151.91, "last_price": 152.7, "unrealized_pnl": 15.601342900401397, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PROX_CFD.BE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 6.98, "last_price": 7.55, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PRU_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1030.0, "last_price": 1101.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 80.0, "last_price": 77.7, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T18:49:26.891792+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 417.16, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RVTY_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 91.28, "last_price": 89.93, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-08T10:05:58.226220+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "qty": 4.237288135593221, "avg_price": 708.0, "last_price": 708.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-13T18:17:31.188931+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 795.4, "last_price": 783.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "STAN_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1615.0, "last_price": 1634.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-11T10:11:17.665074+00:00"}, {"symbol": "STJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1282.0, "last_price": 1318.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "STM_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 18.436, "last_price": 17.66, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "STZ_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 149.07, "last_price": 156.44, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TCAP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 257.0, "last_price": 248.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TMV_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 4.781, "last_price": 4.769, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "qty": 16.260162601626018, "avg_price": 184.5, "last_price": 184.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T18:03:34.247734+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.398000000000001, "last_price": 7.132, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 94.79, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "qty": 5.9405940594059405, "avg_price": 505.0, "last_price": 505.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WEIR_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.0380622837370241, "avg_price": 2890.0, "last_price": 2890.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T10:35:48.762746+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "qty": 13.3630289532294, "avg_price": 224.5, "last_price": 224.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-13T18:17:31.188931+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1299.0, "last_price": 1080.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZAL_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 21.078, "last_price": 20.775, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZION_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 58.99, "last_price": 57.21, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 88, "selection_reason": "-13.4% 1d drop, lowest 20d vol in cohort (72.6%), -11.5% below MA50 creating deep short-term oversold; high reversion probability"}, {"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 82, "selection_reason": "-8.5% 1d drop while still +7.3% above MA200; pullback within uptrend, -3.2% below MA50, vol 83% manageable"}, {"symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 78, "selection_reason": "-5.4% 1d drop, +4.8% above MA200 (uptrend intact), -4.7% below MA50 creating short-term oversold, vol 82%"}, {"symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 75, "selection_reason": "-7% 1d drop, -11% below MA50 deeply oversold short-term, vol 75% relatively contained for mega-cap tech; bounce candidate"}, {"symbol": "LTA_CFD.FR", "mean_reversion_score": 72, "selection_reason": "-8.3% 1d drop, -8.6% below MA50, vol 77% moderate; sharp single-day selloff in otherwise range-bound name near MA200"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Score 82; -8.5% 1d pullback within uptrend (+7.3% above MA200), high reversion probability",
        "symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Score 75; -7% 1d drop, -11% below MA50 deeply oversold mega-cap tech bounce candidate",
        "symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Top candidate score 88; -13.4% 1d drop creates deep oversold condition, high reversion probability",
        "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Candidate score 78; -5.4% 1d drop in uptrend, short-term oversold",
        "symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Candidate score 72; sharp selloff near MA200, reversion potential",
        "symbol": "LTA_CFD.FR"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Small unrealized gain, position still developing",
        "symbol": "CTT_CFD.PT"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL +15.60, holding for further reversion",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat, no reason to exit prematurely",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Recently opened, allowing time for reversion",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Recently opened, allowing time for reversion",
        "symbol": "FICO_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Holding, no adverse signal",
        "symbol": "LAND_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Holding, no adverse signal",
        "symbol": "LSEG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Holding, no adverse signal",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Recently opened, holding",
        "symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Just opened, allowing time",
        "symbol": "WEIR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Recently opened, holding",
        "symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Holding, no adverse signal",
        "symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "No mean-reversion signal; stale flat position, freeing slot for higher-conviction candidates",
        "symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "No mean-reversion signal; flat position with no catalyst, reducing position count toward max 10",
        "symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio is overweight at 17 active positions vs 10 max. Selling 2 stale flat positions (UTG, TRN) with no mean-reversion signal. Adding OSB (score 82, pullback in uptrend) and ADBE (score 75, deeply oversold mega-cap). ICG, DPLM, LTA already held and rank as top candidates - confirming hold. Will continue trimming stale positions in subsequent runs to converge toward 10-position limit."
}
Selection logs
#644stage12026-03-15T21:43:23.511056+00:00
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "-13.4% 1d drop, lowest 20d vol in cohort (72.6%), -11.5% below MA50 creating deep short-term oversold; high reversion probability",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "-8.5% 1d drop while still +7.3% above MA200; pullback within uptrend, -3.2% below MA50, vol 83% manageable",
      "mean_reversion_score": 82
    },
    {
      "symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "-5.4% 1d drop, +4.8% above MA200 (uptrend intact), -4.7% below MA50 creating short-term oversold, vol 82%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "-7% 1d drop, -11% below MA50 deeply oversold short-term, vol 75% relatively contained for mega-cap tech; bounce candidate",
      "mean_reversion_score": 75
    },
    {
      "symbol": "LTA_CFD.FR",
      "selection_reason": "-8.3% 1d drop, -8.6% below MA50, vol 77% moderate; sharp single-day selloff in otherwise range-bound name near MA200",
      "mean_reversion_score": 72
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "ULTA/BYIT/THG/OCADO: Extreme 1d drops (>12%) likely event/earnings-driven binary moves",
    "BBY/CCC/ABBV: Missing MA200 and/or extreme volatility (>2000%) indicating data quality issues",
    "SAFE/WIX/HMSO/VBK: Large positive 1d moves (+13-16%) — momentum not reversion candidates",
    "AML/GT/UBI: Deep structural downtrends (>-23% from MA200 and MA50) — trend continuation risk",
    "WDC/EMG/STX: Massively extended above MA200 (>40%) — not mean-reversion setups",
    "GDX_CFD.ETF: ETF excluded; sector/commodity-driven move with high vol 115%"
  ]
}