Arena run #620
meanrev-v1 • moonshotai • moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking • EU • success
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-14T10:03:26.036362+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-14T11:53:02.071749+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-14T12:03:11.029053+00:00
duration_ms: 608956
Inputs
{
"as_of": "2026-03-14T10:03:26.036362+00:00",
"dry_run": false,
"selected": [
{
"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme -27.6% drop, 228% vol, -27% from MA200",
"mean_reversion_score": 95
},
{
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Severe -21.1% drop, 241% vol, -16% from MA200",
"mean_reversion_score": 93
},
{
"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme +18.2% spike, 93% vol, +37% from MA200",
"mean_reversion_score": 96
},
{
"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Sharp +16.0% rally, 84% vol, +19% from MA200",
"mean_reversion_score": 90
},
{
"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large -12.9% selloff, 131% vol, -23% from MA200",
"mean_reversion_score": 88
}
],
"simulate_only": false,
"strict_replay": false,
"universe_symbols": [
"ROR_CFD.UK",
"WTB_CFD.UK",
"SAFE_CFD.UK",
"JDW_CFD.UK",
"UTG_CFD.UK",
"TRN_CFD.UK",
"WIX_CFD.UK",
"KGF_CFD.UK",
"RHIM_CFD.UK",
"RSW_CFD.UK",
"DLN_CFD.UK",
"MCG_CFD.UK",
"SGRO_CFD.UK",
"EMG_CFD.UK",
"OCDO_CFD.UK",
"LRE_CFD.UK",
"LIO_CFD.UK",
"SMIN_CFD.UK",
"BBY_CFD.UK",
"ITV_CFD.UK",
"MAB_CFD.UK",
"IMI_CFD.UK",
"FOXA_CFD.US",
"DOM_CFD.UK",
"TRST_CFD.UK",
"OSB_CFD.UK",
"IPO_CFD.UK",
"ATG_CFD.UK",
"BME_CFD.UK",
"GROW_CFD.UK",
"WEIR_CFD.UK",
"WKP_CFD.UK",
"ANTO_CFD.UK",
"MPT_CFD.US",
"DPLM_CFD.UK",
"LTA_CFD.FR",
"PWR_CFD.US",
"MTN_CFD.US",
"IGG_CFD.UK",
"WDC_CFD.US",
"GT_CFD.US",
"HMSO_CFD.UK",
"MSLH_CFD.UK",
"UKW_CFD.UK",
"FMC_CFD.US",
"GLPG_CFD.NL",
"ARMK_CFD.US"
]
}Outputs
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Highest mean reversion score (95) with extreme -27.6% drop, 228% volatility, and -27% from MA200 - strongest oversold signal in universe",
"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Moderate unrealized loss (-5.2%) but no overbought signal; holding for mean reversion",
"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat price action, no signal to sell",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat price action, no signal to sell",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Minimal unrealized loss (-0.4%), within normal range",
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Candidate score 93 indicates oversold (-21.1% drop); hold for expected bounce",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Largest loss (-12.6%) but no candidate score; holding per mean reversion thesis",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Small unrealized loss (-2.1%), no sell signal",
"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Small unrealized loss (-1.2%), no sell signal",
"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": []
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio at 2.6x gross leverage (25,975 value vs 10,000 equity) leaves capacity for one 3,000 position within 3.0x limit. No clear sell signals present for existing holdings; adhering to avoid-overtrading rule by holding despite unrealized losses. Adding strongest mean-reversion candidate (TRST) while maintaining discipline on position sizing and leverage constraints."
}Prompts & responses
#1224 • openrouter • moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking • 2026-03-14T11:53:02.113911+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "ROR_CFD.UK", "name": "ROTORK PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 371.2, "change_1d_pct": 8.538011695906423, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 13.511525838626781, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.597200345451439, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.27413083068154, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK", "name": "WHITBREAD PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2691.0, "change_1d_pct": 11.659751037344401, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.969827496214986, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.069507041577781, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.61035263352142, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "name": "SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 802.5, "change_1d_pct": 13.187588152327212, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 21.40724384452035, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.29872606002229, "volatility_20d_pct": 81.07249455345375, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 748.5, "change_1d_pct": 9.750733137829904, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.242631058659898, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.290077328071208, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.2373545531062, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 567.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.4639927073837784, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.929923575376698, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.6875042216270137, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.84223442053181, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "name": "TRAINLINE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 206.0, "change_1d_pct": -12.93322062552832, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -22.557701091522887, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.560104316644482, "volatility_20d_pct": 131.09279103846345, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "name": "WICKES GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 247.5, "change_1d_pct": 15.984816533108393, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.647646929530737, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.198455173494668, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.25206447406164, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK", "name": "KINGFISHER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 347.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.6020106445890034, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.583930168759967, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.639688157278489, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.64906606382688, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "RHI MAGNESITA NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 2795.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.3809523809523725, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.811460460804897, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.895008018562113, "volatility_20d_pct": 141.33746334612064, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK", "name": "RENISHAW PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4100.0, "change_1d_pct": 18.155619596541793, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 36.779911314574385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.333028240759926, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.61568245477878, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 25.72, "change_1d_pct": 2.9623698959167166, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.132760074308242, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.327577202351844, "volatility_20d_pct": 232.19808875565576, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SGRO_CFD.UK", "name": "SEGRO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 789.8, "change_1d_pct": 5.166444740346199, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 16.137238395282736, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.124180991500651, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.28658783635437, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EMG_CFD.UK", "name": "MAN GROUP PLC/JERSEY", "sector": "", "last_price": 269.6, "change_1d_pct": 2.353834472285521, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 42.186331073171914, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 15.516783354614262, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.92367167139048, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 217.0, "change_1d_pct": -21.148255813953487, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.81606625159202, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.48311196636071, "volatility_20d_pct": 241.3119670937803, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK", "name": "LANCASHIRE HOLDINGS LTD", "sector": "", "last_price": 647.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.26586102719033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.266967093949116, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.0131237932627712, "volatility_20d_pct": 79.5840954070324, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 270.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.784431137724557, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.148878096081223, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.440258238208905, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.52252179896075, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SMIN_CFD.UK", "name": "SMITHS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2544.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.4333845019038671, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 14.948150770494873, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.167383226889343, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.718462979927, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 722.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.0951403148528382, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.628407265201648, "volatility_20d_pct": 2239.4661443465884, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ITV_CFD.UK", "name": "ITV PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 86.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.92749244712991, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.871211807633016, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.417994606521215, "volatility_20d_pct": 139.7485078641958, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MAB_CFD.UK", "name": "MITCHELLS & BUTLERS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 292.81, "change_1d_pct": 14.37890625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.595067041457764, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.935906392690597, "volatility_20d_pct": 118.87119977937589, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IMI_CFD.UK", "name": "IMI PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2774.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.7583081570997, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 25.227479847754264, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.661876238540865, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.69330898337377, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FOXA_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 59.43, "change_1d_pct": 1.3817809621289756, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -3.706794236666111, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.013246128125518, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.08943961194082, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 189.21, "change_1d_pct": 4.190528634361246, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -12.46581454882838, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.428944053991102, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.812071272284, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "name": "TRUSTPILOT AS", "sector": "", "last_price": 156.6, "change_1d_pct": -27.567067530064747, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -26.81677017545049, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.671300046318578, "volatility_20d_pct": 228.54402237564213, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK", "name": "OSB GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 575.5, "change_1d_pct": -8.50556438791733, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.26309045372473, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.1605502163448818, "volatility_20d_pct": 83.79306172690484, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "IP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 57.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.873935264054516, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.233643652522883, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.027486732888828, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.82123635439407, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 305.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.2735042735042805, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.344980756373573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1704016694101371, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.9931345477538, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BME_CFD.UK", "name": "B&M EUROPEAN VALUE RETAIL SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 180.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.5799502899751507, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.510144533683704, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.6906975618860693, "volatility_20d_pct": 107.67302074828436, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GROW_CFD.UK", "name": "MOLTEN VENTURES PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 465.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.572739187418093, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.569628774815076, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.275686024250158, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.72658030340939, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WEIR_CFD.UK", "name": "WEIR GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 2968.0, "change_1d_pct": -7.250000000000001, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 13.608616555186948, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.0329806894725966, "volatility_20d_pct": 126.53973442920609, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ANTO_CFD.UK", "name": "ANTOFAGASTA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3679.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.3622274757026505, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 35.757421893125986, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.9752454322435997, "volatility_20d_pct": 123.31702281679799, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MPT_CFD.US", "name": "MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST INC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4.91, "change_1d_pct": -10.401459854014606, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.14787619193310508, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.138447146866223, "volatility_20d_pct": 139.4173956877411, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK", "name": "DIPLOMA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 5220.0, "change_1d_pct": -5.434782608695654, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.8180942215069855, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.664614313757087, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.77890721911896, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LTA_CFD.FR", "name": "ALTAMIR", "sector": "", "last_price": 26.55, "change_1d_pct": -8.290155440414503, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.659993998817693, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.646607227894187, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.90024899659345, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PWR_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 570.06, "change_1d_pct": -0.40010483096009075, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 32.66130003466283, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 13.629704223111737, "volatility_20d_pct": 75.10747878988178, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MTN_CFD.US", "name": "VAIL RESORTS INC", "sector": "", "last_price": 134.14, "change_1d_pct": -1.251472320376923, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -9.650746994476266, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.409284431756342, "volatility_20d_pct": 78.42663697712976, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IGG_CFD.UK", "name": "IG GROUP HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1356.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.1963470319634757, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 21.69129359819437, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.822701129829392, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.02278066392904, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WDC_CFD.US", "name": "Western Digital Corporation", "sector": "", "last_price": 277.84, "change_1d_pct": 0.33222591362125353, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 93.67833739443938, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.13762446177886, "volatility_20d_pct": 155.57328227015603, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GT_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 6.9, "change_1d_pct": -5.089408528198058, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.075636716333058, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.546752576162355, "volatility_20d_pct": 122.51572489644428, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "HAMMERSON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 355.4, "change_1d_pct": 14.129736673089276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.516025502913806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.006914897239172, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.54938293511039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "name": "MARSHALLS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 182.32, "change_1d_pct": 0.8407079646017612, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.111863069088763, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.139091576985178, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.4204512350097, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "name": "GREENCOAT UK WIND PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 95.01, "change_1d_pct": -1.6968442834971564, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.97720286541412, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.087603533536438, "volatility_20d_pct": 2874.939162900206, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FMC_CFD.US", "name": "FMC Corporation", "sector": "", "last_price": 14.29, "change_1d_pct": 0.7757404795486478, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -47.23374086560298, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.264869427733053, "volatility_20d_pct": 124.54433559318134, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GLPG_CFD.NL", "name": "Galapagos", "sector": "", "last_price": 28.28, "change_1d_pct": -0.07067137809186885, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.8954256106641596, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.9221110457131698, "volatility_20d_pct": 75.5045902569289, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ARMK_CFD.US", "name": "Aramark Holdings", "sector": "", "last_price": 40.6, "change_1d_pct": 1.907630522088355, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.8443036034769387, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.8775301284195365, "volatility_20d_pct": 79.10676557514627, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}Output JSON
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme -27.6% drop, 228% vol, -27% from MA200",
"mean_reversion_score": 95
},
{
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Severe -21.1% drop, 241% vol, -16% from MA200",
"mean_reversion_score": 93
},
{
"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme +18.2% spike, 93% vol, +37% from MA200",
"mean_reversion_score": 96
},
{
"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Sharp +16.0% rally, 84% vol, +19% from MA200",
"mean_reversion_score": 90
},
{
"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large -12.9% selloff, 131% vol, -23% from MA200",
"mean_reversion_score": 88
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Insufficient extreme price movement for mean-reversion setup",
"Lower volatility compared to selected candidates",
"Distance from moving averages less extreme"
]
}#1225 • openrouter • moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking • 2026-03-14T11:56:42.918519+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "qty": 71.4626012386851, "avg_price": 41.98, "last_price": 39.78, "unrealized_pnl": -157.2177227251069, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.24287783679382, "avg_price": 414.2, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.7647058823529411, "avg_price": 1700.0, "last_price": 1693.0, "unrealized_pnl": -12.352941176470587, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 20.15, "last_price": 19.44, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 14.684287812041115, "avg_price": 204.3, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 34.32579479218265, "avg_price": 174.7956612898717, "last_price": 152.7, "unrealized_pnl": -758.4511352337103, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.4691358024691357, "avg_price": 1215.0, "last_price": 1190.0, "unrealized_pnl": -61.72839506172839, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.024116132053383, "avg_price": 427.1, "last_price": 422.1, "unrealized_pnl": -35.12058066026691, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 872.0, "last_price": 976.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 253.97436099095557, "last_price": 262.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 95, "selection_reason": "Extreme -27.6% drop, 228% vol, -27% from MA200"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 93, "selection_reason": "Severe -21.1% drop, 241% vol, -16% from MA200"}, {"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 96, "selection_reason": "Extreme +18.2% spike, 93% vol, +37% from MA200"}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 90, "selection_reason": "Sharp +16.0% rally, 84% vol, +19% from MA200"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 88, "selection_reason": "Large -12.9% selloff, 131% vol, -23% from MA200"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}Output JSON
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Highest mean reversion score (95) with extreme -27.6% drop, 228% volatility, and -27% from MA200 - strongest oversold signal in universe",
"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Moderate unrealized loss (-5.2%) but no overbought signal; holding for mean reversion",
"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat price action, no signal to sell",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat price action, no signal to sell",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Minimal unrealized loss (-0.4%), within normal range",
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Candidate score 93 indicates oversold (-21.1% drop); hold for expected bounce",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Largest loss (-12.6%) but no candidate score; holding per mean reversion thesis",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Small unrealized loss (-2.1%), no sell signal",
"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Small unrealized loss (-1.2%), no sell signal",
"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": []
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio at 2.6x gross leverage (25,975 value vs 10,000 equity) leaves capacity for one 3,000 position within 3.0x limit. No clear sell signals present for existing holdings; adhering to avoid-overtrading rule by holding despite unrealized losses. Adding strongest mean-reversion candidate (TRST) while maintaining discipline on position sizing and leverage constraints."
}Selection logs
#609 • stage1 • 2026-03-14T11:56:42.915845+00:00
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme -27.6% drop, 228% vol, -27% from MA200",
"mean_reversion_score": 95
},
{
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Severe -21.1% drop, 241% vol, -16% from MA200",
"mean_reversion_score": 93
},
{
"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme +18.2% spike, 93% vol, +37% from MA200",
"mean_reversion_score": 96
},
{
"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Sharp +16.0% rally, 84% vol, +19% from MA200",
"mean_reversion_score": 90
},
{
"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large -12.9% selloff, 131% vol, -23% from MA200",
"mean_reversion_score": 88
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Insufficient extreme price movement for mean-reversion setup",
"Lower volatility compared to selected candidates",
"Distance from moving averages less extreme"
]
}