Arena run #595
meanrev-v1 • anthropic • anthropic/claude-opus-4.6 • US • success
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-12T19:32:41.954006+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-12T19:33:29.713156+00:00
duration_ms: 47758
Inputs
{
"as_of": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00",
"dry_run": false,
"selected": [
{
"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+18.2% 1d spike, +36.8% above MA200, +14.3% above MA50; extreme overextension on all timeframes favors short-side reversion",
"mean_reversion_score": 92
},
{
"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+16.0% 1d spike, +18.6% above MA200, +10.2% above MA50; sharp single-day rally well above both MAs",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "MAB_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+14.4% 1d spike, +11.6% above MA200, +10.9% above MA50; strong single-day overextension ripe for pullback",
"mean_reversion_score": 80
},
{
"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+13.2% 1d spike, +21.4% above MA200, +10.3% above MA50; large gap above both MAs after sharp rally",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
},
{
"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "-8.5% 1d drop, now -3.2% below MA50 while still +7.3% above MA200; sharp selloff within uptrend suggests long-side bounce",
"mean_reversion_score": 75
}
],
"simulate_only": false,
"strict_replay": false,
"universe_symbols": [
"ROR_CFD.UK",
"SAFE_CFD.UK",
"UTG_CFD.UK",
"WIX_CFD.UK",
"KGF_CFD.UK",
"RHIM_CFD.UK",
"CBG_CFD.UK",
"RSW_CFD.UK",
"DOM_CFD.UK",
"DLN_CFD.UK",
"MCG_CFD.UK",
"SGRO_CFD.UK",
"OCDO_CFD.UK",
"LRE_CFD.UK",
"LIO_CFD.UK",
"SMIN_CFD.UK",
"BBY_CFD.UK",
"CCC_CFD.UK",
"MAB_CFD.UK",
"OSB_CFD.UK",
"IPO_CFD.UK",
"ATG_CFD.UK",
"BME_CFD.UK",
"ITRK_CFD.UK",
"RIVN_CFD.US",
"WKP_CFD.UK",
"PSN_CFD.UK",
"DPLM_CFD.UK",
"WLN_CFD.FR",
"IGG_CFD.UK",
"HMSO_CFD.UK"
]
}Outputs
{
"actions": {
"buy": [],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Still trending favorably with +2.6% unrealized gain, hold for further reversion.",
"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Modest +1.2% gain, still room for further mean-reversion upside.",
"symbol": "STAN_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Small gain, recently opened, allow more time for reversion.",
"symbol": "CPAY_CFD.US"
},
{
"reason": "Small positive PnL, holding for continued reversion.",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat at entry, no reason to exit yet.",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Just opened, flat, allow time to develop.",
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat, no signal to exit.",
"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat, holding for reversion.",
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Just opened, allow time.",
"symbol": "LAND_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Just opened, allow time.",
"symbol": "LSEG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Candidate analysis confirms long-side bounce expected after -8.5% drop. Hold.",
"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat, no exit signal.",
"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat, holding.",
"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Price reverted from 38.9 to 40.2 (+3.3%), mean-reversion target achieved. Lock in ~100 profit. Also need to reduce position count toward 10-max limit.",
"symbol": "BEKB_CFD.BE"
},
{
"reason": "Price reverted from 13.14 to 13.64 (+3.8%), mean-reversion target achieved. Lock in ~114 profit. Reducing excess positions.",
"symbol": "LXS_CFD.DE"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio has 15 active positions, well above the 10-max limit. Priority is reducing positions by taking profits on the two strongest mean-reversion winners (BEKB +3.3%, LXS +3.8%). No new buys this run despite strong RSW candidate (score 92) because we must first bring position count down. Remaining positions are either recently opened or showing modest gains with further reversion potential. OSB holding is reinforced by candidate analysis showing bounce expected. Will look to trim more zero-PnL positions and potentially short RSW in subsequent runs."
}Prompts & responses
#1175 • openrouter • anthropic/claude-opus-4.6 • 2026-03-12T19:32:41.981386+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "ROR_CFD.UK", "name": "ROTORK PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 371.2, "change_1d_pct": 8.538011695906423, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 13.511525838626781, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.597200345451439, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.27413083068154, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "name": "SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 802.5, "change_1d_pct": 13.187588152327212, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 21.40724384452035, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.29872606002229, "volatility_20d_pct": 81.07249455345375, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 567.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.4639927073837784, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.929923575376698, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.6875042216270137, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.84223442053181, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "name": "WICKES GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 247.5, "change_1d_pct": 15.984816533108393, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.647646929530737, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.198455173494668, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.25206447406164, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK", "name": "KINGFISHER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 347.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.6020106445890034, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.583930168759967, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.639688157278489, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.64906606382688, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "RHI MAGNESITA NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 2795.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.3809523809523725, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.811460460804897, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.895008018562113, "volatility_20d_pct": 141.33746334612064, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 497.8, "change_1d_pct": -5.89792060491493, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.793508864321094, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.592137485786795, "volatility_20d_pct": 116.76618625853061, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK", "name": "RENISHAW PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4100.0, "change_1d_pct": 18.155619596541793, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 36.779911314574385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.333028240759926, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.61568245477878, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 204.15, "change_1d_pct": 11.924342105263165, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.759626343727387, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.834440951357639, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.60557991984848, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 25.72, "change_1d_pct": 2.9623698959167166, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.132760074308242, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.327577202351844, "volatility_20d_pct": 232.19808875565576, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SGRO_CFD.UK", "name": "SEGRO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 789.8, "change_1d_pct": 5.166444740346199, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 16.137238395282736, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.124180991500651, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.28658783635437, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 217.0, "change_1d_pct": -21.148255813953487, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.81606625159202, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.48311196636071, "volatility_20d_pct": 241.3119670937803, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": 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null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SMIN_CFD.UK", "name": "SMITHS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2544.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.4333845019038671, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 14.948150770494873, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.167383226889343, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.718462979927, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 722.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.0951403148528382, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.628407265201648, "volatility_20d_pct": 2239.4661443465884, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCC_CFD.UK", "name": "COMPUTACENTER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3230.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.000625390869292, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.7824360276067726, "volatility_20d_pct": 3216.515047539989, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MAB_CFD.UK", "name": "MITCHELLS & BUTLERS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 292.81, "change_1d_pct": 14.37890625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.595067041457764, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.935906392690597, "volatility_20d_pct": 118.87119977937589, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK", "name": "OSB GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 575.5, "change_1d_pct": -8.50556438791733, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.26309045372473, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.1605502163448818, "volatility_20d_pct": 83.79306172690484, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "IP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 57.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.873935264054516, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.233643652522883, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.027486732888828, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.82123635439407, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 305.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.2735042735042805, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.344980756373573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1704016694101371, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.9931345477538, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BME_CFD.UK", "name": "B&M EUROPEAN VALUE RETAIL SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 180.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.5799502899751507, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.510144533683704, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.6906975618860693, "volatility_20d_pct": 107.67302074828436, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ITRK_CFD.UK", "name": "INTERTEK GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4052.0, "change_1d_pct": -12.256388046773491, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.431208382751315, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.55643708647305, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.55966250200157, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RIVN_CFD.US", "name": "Rivian Automotive Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 17.73, "change_1d_pct": 26.642857142857146, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8578319832529324, "volatility_20d_pct": 10724.926617862131, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK", "name": "PERSIMMON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1243.0, "change_1d_pct": -17.463479415670648, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.7801653617441349, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.259784090699776, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.9499775078744, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK", "name": "DIPLOMA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 5220.0, "change_1d_pct": -5.434782608695654, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.8180942215069855, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.664614313757087, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.77890721911896, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WLN_CFD.FR", "name": "Worldline SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.534, "change_1d_pct": 6.750173973556017, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -38.34293626693408, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.525287546089941, "volatility_20d_pct": 125.06405555810984, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IGG_CFD.UK", "name": "IG GROUP HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1356.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.1963470319634757, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 21.69129359819437, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.822701129829392, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.02278066392904, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "HAMMERSON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 355.4, "change_1d_pct": 14.129736673089276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.516025502913806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.006914897239172, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.54938293511039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}Output JSON
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+18.2% 1d spike, +36.8% above MA200, +14.3% above MA50; extreme overextension on all timeframes favors short-side reversion",
"mean_reversion_score": 92
},
{
"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+16.0% 1d spike, +18.6% above MA200, +10.2% above MA50; sharp single-day rally well above both MAs",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "MAB_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+14.4% 1d spike, +11.6% above MA200, +10.9% above MA50; strong single-day overextension ripe for pullback",
"mean_reversion_score": 80
},
{
"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+13.2% 1d spike, +21.4% above MA200, +10.3% above MA50; large gap above both MAs after sharp rally",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
},
{
"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "-8.5% 1d drop, now -3.2% below MA50 while still +7.3% above MA200; sharp selloff within uptrend suggests long-side bounce",
"mean_reversion_score": 75
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"OCDO/PSN/ITRK: massive single-day drops (-12% to -21%) likely event/news-driven, high binary risk",
"RIVN/BBY/CCC: extreme volatility (2000%+) suggests data quality issues or illiquidity, unsuitable",
"MCG: 232% 20d volatility too extreme for controlled mean-reversion sizing",
"HMSO/DOM/DLN: large 1d spikes but less extreme overextension vs selected candidates",
"KGF/SMIN/IGG: moderate moves, lower mean-reversion signal strength"
]
}#1176 • openrouter • anthropic/claude-opus-4.6 • 2026-03-12T19:33:06.631073+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1868.5, "last_price": 1846.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ADS_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 137.15, "last_price": 142.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AMCX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.58, "last_price": 7.46, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AMH_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 29.63, "last_price": 29.16, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 59.0, "last_price": 58.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 28.6, "last_price": 27.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BEKB_CFD.BE", "qty": 77.12082262210797, "avg_price": 38.9, "last_price": 40.2, "unrealized_pnl": 100.25706940874069, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.237232289950576, "avg_price": 364.2, "last_price": 373.8, "unrealized_pnl": 79.07742998352572, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T18:03:34.247734+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 310.3, "last_price": 295.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-10T18:24:41.570614+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BXP_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 60.835, "last_price": 57.754999999999995, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 94.6, "last_price": 108.935, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CAR_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.285, "last_price": 95.88499999999999, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.547359231776517, "avg_price": 458.2, "last_price": 458.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-10T18:24:41.570614+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCC_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 2978.0, "last_price": 3218.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1945.9999999999998, "last_price": 1858.65, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T10:27:11.178069+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CPAY_CFD.US", "qty": 9.321257126877844, "avg_price": 321.845, "last_price": 322.82, "unrealized_pnl": 9.08822569870558, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T18:18:45.954380+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 423.05499999999995, "last_price": 388.21500000000003, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.6556291390728477, "avg_price": 1812.0, "last_price": 1812.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 55.55, "last_price": 53.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-07T10:14:47.113218+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ETSY_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 44.13, "last_price": 50.905, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 405.2, "last_price": 395.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-08T10:05:58.226220+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FME_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 38.38, "last_price": 38.14, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FRE_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 49.156, "last_price": 47.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T10:57:06.928276+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1408.0, "last_price": 1342.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HO_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 254.566, "last_price": 251.7, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.772002362669817, "avg_price": 1693.0, "last_price": 1693.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JBLU_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 4.57, "last_price": 4.5600000000000005, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T18:20:59.102726+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LAND_CFD.UK", "qty": 5.1194539249146755, "avg_price": 586.0, "last_price": 586.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LOPE_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 157.02, "last_price": 152.77, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T17:33:48.338981+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LPX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 86.45, "last_price": 82.99, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSEG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.3525264394829612, "avg_price": 8510.0, "last_price": 8510.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 20.15, "last_price": 19.78, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LXS_CFD.DE", "qty": 228.31050228310502, "avg_price": 13.14, "last_price": 13.64, "unrealized_pnl": 114.15525114155251, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T10:33:43.857578+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MTG_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 26.27, "last_price": 25.98, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "NXT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 12990.0, "last_price": 12770.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-07T10:14:47.113218+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 217.0, "last_price": 217.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OKTA_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 70.18, "last_price": 78.38, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ORCL_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 153.02, "last_price": 150.49, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-08T18:08:31.007911+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK", "qty": 5.371530886302597, "avg_price": 558.5, "last_price": 558.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-11T10:11:17.665074+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 19.74853531696399, "avg_price": 151.91, "last_price": 152.7, "unrealized_pnl": 15.601342900401397, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PROX_CFD.BE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 6.98, "last_price": 7.55, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PRU_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1030.0, "last_price": 1101.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 80.0, "last_price": 77.7, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T18:49:26.891792+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 417.16, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RVTY_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 91.28, "last_price": 89.93, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-08T10:05:58.226220+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 795.4, "last_price": 783.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "STAN_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.8575851393188854, "avg_price": 1615.0, "last_price": 1634.5, "unrealized_pnl": 36.22291021671826, "opened_at": "2026-03-11T10:11:17.665074+00:00"}, {"symbol": "STJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1282.0, "last_price": 1318.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "STM_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 18.436, "last_price": 17.66, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "STZ_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 149.07, "last_price": 156.44, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TCAP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 257.0, "last_price": 248.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TMV_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 4.781, "last_price": 4.769, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "qty": 16.260162601626018, "avg_price": 184.5, "last_price": 184.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T18:03:34.247734+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.398000000000001, "last_price": 7.132, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 94.79, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "qty": 5.9405940594059405, "avg_price": 505.0, "last_price": 505.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1299.0, "last_price": 1080.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZAL_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 21.078, "last_price": 20.775, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZION_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 58.99, "last_price": 57.21, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 92, "selection_reason": "+18.2% 1d spike, +36.8% above MA200, +14.3% above MA50; extreme overextension on all timeframes favors short-side reversion"}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 85, "selection_reason": "+16.0% 1d spike, +18.6% above MA200, +10.2% above MA50; sharp single-day rally well above both MAs"}, {"symbol": "MAB_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 80, "selection_reason": "+14.4% 1d spike, +11.6% above MA200, +10.9% above MA50; strong single-day overextension ripe for pullback"}, {"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 82, "selection_reason": "+13.2% 1d spike, +21.4% above MA200, +10.3% above MA50; large gap above both MAs after sharp rally"}, {"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 75, "selection_reason": "-8.5% 1d drop, now -3.2% below MA50 while still +7.3% above MA200; sharp selloff within uptrend suggests long-side bounce"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}Output JSON
{
"actions": {
"buy": [],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Still trending favorably with +2.6% unrealized gain, hold for further reversion.",
"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Modest +1.2% gain, still room for further mean-reversion upside.",
"symbol": "STAN_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Small gain, recently opened, allow more time for reversion.",
"symbol": "CPAY_CFD.US"
},
{
"reason": "Small positive PnL, holding for continued reversion.",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat at entry, no reason to exit yet.",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Just opened, flat, allow time to develop.",
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat, no signal to exit.",
"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat, holding for reversion.",
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Just opened, allow time.",
"symbol": "LAND_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Just opened, allow time.",
"symbol": "LSEG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Candidate analysis confirms long-side bounce expected after -8.5% drop. Hold.",
"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat, no exit signal.",
"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat, holding.",
"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Price reverted from 38.9 to 40.2 (+3.3%), mean-reversion target achieved. Lock in ~100 profit. Also need to reduce position count toward 10-max limit.",
"symbol": "BEKB_CFD.BE"
},
{
"reason": "Price reverted from 13.14 to 13.64 (+3.8%), mean-reversion target achieved. Lock in ~114 profit. Reducing excess positions.",
"symbol": "LXS_CFD.DE"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio has 15 active positions, well above the 10-max limit. Priority is reducing positions by taking profits on the two strongest mean-reversion winners (BEKB +3.3%, LXS +3.8%). No new buys this run despite strong RSW candidate (score 92) because we must first bring position count down. Remaining positions are either recently opened or showing modest gains with further reversion potential. OSB holding is reinforced by candidate analysis showing bounce expected. Will look to trim more zero-PnL positions and potentially short RSW in subsequent runs."
}Selection logs
#585 • stage1 • 2026-03-12T19:33:06.628433+00:00
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+18.2% 1d spike, +36.8% above MA200, +14.3% above MA50; extreme overextension on all timeframes favors short-side reversion",
"mean_reversion_score": 92
},
{
"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+16.0% 1d spike, +18.6% above MA200, +10.2% above MA50; sharp single-day rally well above both MAs",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "MAB_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+14.4% 1d spike, +11.6% above MA200, +10.9% above MA50; strong single-day overextension ripe for pullback",
"mean_reversion_score": 80
},
{
"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+13.2% 1d spike, +21.4% above MA200, +10.3% above MA50; large gap above both MAs after sharp rally",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
},
{
"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "-8.5% 1d drop, now -3.2% below MA50 while still +7.3% above MA200; sharp selloff within uptrend suggests long-side bounce",
"mean_reversion_score": 75
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"OCDO/PSN/ITRK: massive single-day drops (-12% to -21%) likely event/news-driven, high binary risk",
"RIVN/BBY/CCC: extreme volatility (2000%+) suggests data quality issues or illiquidity, unsuitable",
"MCG: 232% 20d volatility too extreme for controlled mean-reversion sizing",
"HMSO/DOM/DLN: large 1d spikes but less extreme overextension vs selected candidates",
"KGF/SMIN/IGG: moderate moves, lower mean-reversion signal strength"
]
}