Arena run #581

meanrev-v1amazonamazon/nova-premier-v1EUsuccess
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-12T14:29:48.737722+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-12T14:30:21.560786+00:00
duration_ms: 32821
Inputs
{
  "as_of": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00",
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [
    {
      "symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma200_pct < 0 and volatility_20d_pct > 100",
      "mean_reversion_score": 70
    },
    {
      "symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma200_pct > 20 and volatility_20d_pct < 100",
      "mean_reversion_score": 65
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ITV_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma50_pct between 0-10 and volatility_20d_pct > 100",
      "mean_reversion_score": 60
    },
    {
      "symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma200_pct between 0-10 and volatility_20d_pct < 100",
      "mean_reversion_score": 55
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma50_pct between -5-5 and volatility_20d_pct > 50",
      "mean_reversion_score": 50
    }
  ],
  "simulate_only": false,
  "strict_replay": false,
  "universe_symbols": [
    "SAFE_CFD.UK",
    "UTG_CFD.UK",
    "TRN_CFD.UK",
    "WIX_CFD.UK",
    "KGF_CFD.UK",
    "RHIM_CFD.UK",
    "VTY_CFD.UK",
    "RSW_CFD.UK",
    "DOM_CFD.UK",
    "OCDO_CFD.UK",
    "SGRO_CFD.UK",
    "LRE_CFD.UK",
    "HSBA_CFD.UK",
    "LIO_CFD.UK",
    "ITV_CFD.UK",
    "LSEG_CFD.UK",
    "TRST_CFD.UK",
    "KWS_CFD.DE",
    "OSB_CFD.UK",
    "GMM_CFD.DE",
    "BME_CFD.UK",
    "TBCG_CFD.UK",
    "WIZZ_CFD.UK",
    "TNG_CFD.FR",
    "FUTR_CFD.UK",
    "FICO_CFD.US",
    "DPLM_CFD.UK",
    "SGE_CFD.UK",
    "CRDA_CFD.UK",
    "OLLI_CFD.US",
    "DCC_CFD.UK",
    "LAND_CFD.UK",
    "BMW_CFD.DE",
    "HMSO_CFD.UK",
    "MNG_CFD.UK",
    "MSLH_CFD.UK",
    "DLTR_CFD.US",
    "CRBN_CFD.NL"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Highest mean-reversion score and valid technical criteria",
        "symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Second-highest score with valid technical pattern",
        "symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Maintain existing profitable position",
        "symbol": "AKAM_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "New position with zero PnL - wait for confirmation",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Profitable position with positive trend",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position - wait for clearer signal",
        "symbol": "GNRC_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Profitable position with positive trend",
        "symbol": "KEX_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Profitable position with positive trend",
        "symbol": "LXS_CFD.DE"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position with minimal gain",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position with minimal gain",
        "symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Profitable position with positive trend",
        "symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Profitable position with strong upward movement",
        "symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Underperforming position with negative PnL",
        "symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Reducing exposure to underperforming assets while adding two EU candidates with strong mean-reversion signals. Maintained core holdings with positive trends and added diversification through new UK positions. Kept total positions within 10-asset limit and respected 2-buy cap per run."
}
Prompts & responses
#1147openrouteramazon/nova-premier-v12026-03-12T14:29:48.771366+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "name": "SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 802.5, "change_1d_pct": 13.187588152327212, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 21.40724384452035, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.29872606002229, "volatility_20d_pct": 81.07249455345375, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 567.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.4639927073837784, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.929923575376698, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.6875042216270137, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.84223442053181, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "name": "TRAINLINE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 206.0, "change_1d_pct": -12.93322062552832, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -22.557701091522887, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.560104316644482, "volatility_20d_pct": 131.09279103846345, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "name": "WICKES GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 247.5, "change_1d_pct": 15.984816533108393, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.647646929530737, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.198455173494668, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.25206447406164, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK", "name": "KINGFISHER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 315.6, "change_1d_pct": -9.048991354466851, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.853280580001876, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.0101280045040535, "volatility_20d_pct": 4841.586311080337, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "RHI MAGNESITA NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 2795.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.3809523809523725, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.811460460804897, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.895008018562113, "volatility_20d_pct": 141.33746334612064, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "name": "VISTRY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 463.9, "change_1d_pct": -32.72911832946637, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -26.66844502405723, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -28.488957332309774, "volatility_20d_pct": 205.6561667968453, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK", "name": "RENISHAW PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4100.0, "change_1d_pct": 18.155619596541793, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 36.779911314574385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.333028240759926, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.61568245477878, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 204.15, "change_1d_pct": 11.924342105263165, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.759626343727387, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.834440951357639, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.60557991984848, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 217.0, "change_1d_pct": -21.148255813953487, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.81606625159202, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.48311196636071, "volatility_20d_pct": 241.3119670937803, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SGRO_CFD.UK", "name": "SEGRO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 838.6, "change_1d_pct": 14.312977099236646, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 23.337223471135403, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.881685289390623, "volatility_20d_pct": 61.79400737887707, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK", "name": "LANCASHIRE HOLDINGS LTD", "sector": "", "last_price": 611.0, "change_1d_pct": -5.564142194744981, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.3541219387989347, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.520894339541805, "volatility_20d_pct": 4817.271229246994, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HSBA_CFD.UK", "name": "HSBC HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1205.4, "change_1d_pct": -5.754495699765439, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 13.508671303503107, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.766870816663193, "volatility_20d_pct": 5015.147576914964, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 270.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.784431137724557, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.148878096081223, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.440258238208905, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.52252179896075, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ITV_CFD.UK", "name": "ITV PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 86.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.92749244712991, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.871211807633016, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.417994606521215, "volatility_20d_pct": 139.7485078641958, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LSEG_CFD.UK", "name": "LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 8422.0, "change_1d_pct": -4.836158192090401, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -9.453084048707193, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9170776523241386, "volatility_20d_pct": 109.51804758992422, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "name": "TRUSTPILOT AS", "sector": "", "last_price": 156.6, "change_1d_pct": -27.567067530064747, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -26.81677017545049, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.671300046318578, "volatility_20d_pct": 228.54402237564213, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KWS_CFD.DE", "name": "KWS SAAT AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 65.2, "change_1d_pct": 2.1943573667711602, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -0.4765904378915553, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.063486675566621, "volatility_20d_pct": 43.83991611415101, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK", "name": "OSB GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 575.5, "change_1d_pct": -8.50556438791733, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.26309045372473, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.1605502163448818, "volatility_20d_pct": 83.79306172690484, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GMM_CFD.DE", "name": "Grammer AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 6.95, "change_1d_pct": -9.150326797385622, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.306429778510168, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.4934627870268464, "volatility_20d_pct": 184.652948783905, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BME_CFD.UK", "name": "B&M EUROPEAN VALUE RETAIL SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 180.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.5799502899751507, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.510144533683704, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.6906975618860693, "volatility_20d_pct": 107.67302074828436, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TBCG_CFD.UK", "name": "TBC BANK GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4320.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.32919254658384, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.181054535330118, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.04542083578916, "volatility_20d_pct": 103.56899161014346, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "name": "WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 927.0, "change_1d_pct": -5.0691244239631335, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -24.217738215858287, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -27.277531220454044, "volatility_20d_pct": 8111.240262670523, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TNG_CFD.FR", "name": "Transgene SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.778, "change_1d_pct": -4.187192118226601, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.223052821158063, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.066549120665492, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.61732111556974, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.6, "change_1d_pct": -20.82242990654205, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.68377383888033, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -24.301477407850992, "volatility_20d_pct": 153.59085037557008, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FICO_CFD.US", "name": "FAIR ISAAC CORP", "sector": "", "last_price": 1159.52, "change_1d_pct": -20.122896330332118, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -27.205765379721957, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -20.554343660017103, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.9945402361105, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK", "name": "DIPLOMA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 5220.0, "change_1d_pct": -5.434782608695654, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.8180942215069855, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.664614313757087, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.77890721911896, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SGE_CFD.UK", "name": "SAGE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 825.0, "change_1d_pct": 5.07278678502745, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -26.453535550154516, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.245015005983463, "volatility_20d_pct": 105.66269444091493, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "name": "CRODA INTERNATIONAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2852.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.622157006603089, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.7062484713757033, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.43312312572669764, "volatility_20d_pct": 116.9451780511235, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OLLI_CFD.US", "name": "OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDI", "sector": "", "last_price": 105.35, "change_1d_pct": -2.2364513734224323, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.646337694869526, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.060496334893583, "volatility_20d_pct": 75.55467440580614, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DCC_CFD.UK", "name": "DCC PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4722.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.871535415750116, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.7078152611501807, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.095260937900023, "volatility_20d_pct": 101.77420564801834, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LAND_CFD.UK", "name": "LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 587.0, "change_1d_pct": -9.203402938901784, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.751221707657491, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.159306646766682, "volatility_20d_pct": 80.69294894711774, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BMW_CFD.DE", "name": "BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 80.004, "change_1d_pct": 1.967881723171061, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.290991980901184, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.943591326491218, "volatility_20d_pct": 47.57236440643064, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "HAMMERSON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 355.4, "change_1d_pct": 14.129736673089276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.516025502913806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.006914897239172, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.54938293511039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MNG_CFD.UK", "name": "M&G PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.1, "change_1d_pct": -2.564935064935059, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.150356967747356, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.6814293137056837, "volatility_20d_pct": 66.02335421814031, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "name": "MARSHALLS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 182.32, "change_1d_pct": 0.8407079646017612, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.111863069088763, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.139091576985178, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.4204512350097, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLTR_CFD.US", "name": "Dollar Tree Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 113.23, "change_1d_pct": -1.5562510867675128, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.7290377601567606, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.047252401546892, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.37221415674689, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRBN_CFD.NL", "name": "Corbion", "sector": "", "last_price": 21.32, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.465176526668118, "volatility_20d_pct": 1678.2965924693424, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma200_pct < 0 and volatility_20d_pct > 100",
      "mean_reversion_score": 70
    },
    {
      "symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma200_pct > 20 and volatility_20d_pct < 100",
      "mean_reversion_score": 65
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ITV_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma50_pct between 0-10 and volatility_20d_pct > 100",
      "mean_reversion_score": 60
    },
    {
      "symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma200_pct between 0-10 and volatility_20d_pct < 100",
      "mean_reversion_score": 55
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma50_pct between -5-5 and volatility_20d_pct > 50",
      "mean_reversion_score": 50
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "distance_from_ma200_pct > 25 or < -25",
    "volatility_20d_pct > 500",
    "missing ma200_pct data",
    "sector concentration risk"
  ]
}
#1148openrouteramazon/nova-premier-v12026-03-12T14:30:06.674540+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ADP_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 117.5, "last_price": 115.1, "unrealized_pnl": -61.276595744680996, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T10:57:06.928276+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AKAM_CFD.US", "qty": 30.783438510081577, "avg_price": 97.455, "last_price": 106.0, "unrealized_pnl": 263.04448206864714, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.453, "last_price": 0.296, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1119.08, "last_price": 1067.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BRNL_CFD.NL", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.05, "last_price": 6.68, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "qty": 9.668063164679342, "avg_price": 310.3, "last_price": 295.4, "unrealized_pnl": -144.05414115372253, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T18:21:09.503139+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 211.0, "last_price": 207.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T10:20:03.276878+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 20.505809979494188, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 94.6, "last_price": 111.495, "unrealized_pnl": 535.7822410147995, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.547359231776517, "avg_price": 458.2, "last_price": 458.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1945.9999999999998, "last_price": 1842.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CO_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.171, "last_price": 0.165, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T10:33:43.857578+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DSY_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 17.881, "last_price": 16.752, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 47.4, "last_price": 46.329, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ESTC_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 58.085, "last_price": 55.355000000000004, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EXE_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 37.303, "last_price": 35.843, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 405.2, "last_price": 394.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 48.255, "last_price": 46.05, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T18:20:59.102726+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 29.709178385970056, "avg_price": 403.9155793573515, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 305.5416874687975, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "GNRC_CFD.US", "qty": 14.950662812718031, "avg_price": 200.66, "last_price": 200.4, "unrealized_pnl": -3.887172331306552, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T18:18:45.954380+00:00"}, {"symbol": "GO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 6.53, "last_price": 6.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T18:20:59.102726+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HAIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.8, "last_price": 0.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1409.0, "last_price": 1342.0, "unrealized_pnl": -142.65436479772887, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 348.8, "last_price": 348.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 57.7, "last_price": 57.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "KBCA_CFD.BE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 75.3, "last_price": 75.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T10:57:06.928276+00:00"}, {"symbol": "KEX_CFD.US", "qty": 24.390243902439025, "avg_price": 123.0, "last_price": 127.74, "unrealized_pnl": 115.60975609756085, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T18:18:45.954380+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "qty": 11.650485436893204, "avg_price": 257.5, "last_price": 257.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LXS_CFD.DE", "qty": 228.31050228310502, "avg_price": 13.14, "last_price": 13.718, "unrealized_pnl": 131.96347031963458, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T10:33:43.857578+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 217.0, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 39.39490073936085, "avg_price": 152.3039755753258, "last_price": 152.7, "unrealized_pnl": 15.601342900401843, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T09:32:59.506254+00:00"}, {"symbol": "REC_CFD.BE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 11.08, "last_price": 10.68, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T18:21:09.503139+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 2795.0, "last_price": 2550.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T10:20:03.276878+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 416.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 795.4, "last_price": 813.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "qty": 326.0869565217392, "avg_price": 18.4, "last_price": 18.48, "unrealized_pnl": 26.086956521739737, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T18:03:34.247734+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "qty": 65.04065040650407, "avg_price": 184.5, "last_price": 184.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T10:27:11.178069+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 64.97022198159178, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 95.01, "unrealized_pnl": 172.82079047103483, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UMG_CFD.NL", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 19.085, "last_price": 18.665, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "qty": 11.881188118811881, "avg_price": 505.0, "last_price": 505.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.015902712815715, "avg_price": 427.6, "last_price": 427.1, "unrealized_pnl": -3.5079513564078577, "opened_at": "2026-03-10T18:24:41.570614+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 3.4403669724770642, "avg_price": 872.0, "last_price": 927.0, "unrealized_pnl": 189.22018348623854, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 263.4, "last_price": 240.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 159.76, "last_price": 144.45, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 70, "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma200_pct < 0 and volatility_20d_pct > 100"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 65, "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma200_pct > 20 and volatility_20d_pct < 100"}, {"symbol": "ITV_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 60, "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma50_pct between 0-10 and volatility_20d_pct > 100"}, {"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 55, "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma200_pct between 0-10 and volatility_20d_pct < 100"}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 50, "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma50_pct between -5-5 and volatility_20d_pct > 50"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Highest mean-reversion score and valid technical criteria",
        "symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Second-highest score with valid technical pattern",
        "symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Maintain existing profitable position",
        "symbol": "AKAM_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "New position with zero PnL - wait for confirmation",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Profitable position with positive trend",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position - wait for clearer signal",
        "symbol": "GNRC_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Profitable position with positive trend",
        "symbol": "KEX_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Profitable position with positive trend",
        "symbol": "LXS_CFD.DE"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position with minimal gain",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position with minimal gain",
        "symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Profitable position with positive trend",
        "symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Profitable position with strong upward movement",
        "symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Underperforming position with negative PnL",
        "symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Reducing exposure to underperforming assets while adding two EU candidates with strong mean-reversion signals. Maintained core holdings with positive trends and added diversification through new UK positions. Kept total positions within 10-asset limit and respected 2-buy cap per run."
}
Selection logs
#571stage12026-03-12T14:30:06.671579+00:00
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma200_pct < 0 and volatility_20d_pct > 100",
      "mean_reversion_score": 70
    },
    {
      "symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma200_pct > 20 and volatility_20d_pct < 100",
      "mean_reversion_score": 65
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ITV_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma50_pct between 0-10 and volatility_20d_pct > 100",
      "mean_reversion_score": 60
    },
    {
      "symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma200_pct between 0-10 and volatility_20d_pct < 100",
      "mean_reversion_score": 55
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "distance_from_ma50_pct between -5-5 and volatility_20d_pct > 50",
      "mean_reversion_score": 50
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "distance_from_ma200_pct > 25 or < -25",
    "volatility_20d_pct > 500",
    "missing ma200_pct data",
    "sector concentration risk"
  ]
}