Arena run #560

You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).

{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "name": "SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 802.5, "change_1d_pct": 13.187588152327212, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 21.40724384452035, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.29872606002229, "volatility_20d_pct": 81.07249455345375, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 567.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.4639927073837784, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.929923575376698, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.6875042216270137, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.84223442053181, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "name": "WICKES GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 247.5, "change_1d_pct": 15.984816533108393, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.647646929530737, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.198455173494668, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.25206447406164, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GXI_CFD.DE", "name": "GERRESHEIMER AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 19.619, "change_1d_pct": 4.334184216124237, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -43.143229707408906, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.377495132448315, "volatility_20d_pct": 136.66149101693946, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 497.8, "change_1d_pct": -5.89792060491493, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.793508864321094, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.592137485786795, "volatility_20d_pct": 116.76618625853061, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "name": "VISTRY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 463.9, "change_1d_pct": -32.72911832946637, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -26.66844502405723, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -28.488957332309774, "volatility_20d_pct": 205.6561667968453, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 204.15, "change_1d_pct": 11.924342105263165, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.759626343727387, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.834440951357639, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.60557991984848, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 25.72, "change_1d_pct": 2.9623698959167166, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.132760074308242, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.327577202351844, "volatility_20d_pct": 232.19808875565576, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "STAN_CFD.UK", "name": "STANDARD CHARTERED PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1724.0, "change_1d_pct": -6.684709066305816, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.752779497807985, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.4015778788986974, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.47786671248083, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 217.0, "change_1d_pct": -21.148255813953487, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.81606625159202, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.48311196636071, "volatility_20d_pct": 241.3119670937803, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SGRO_CFD.UK", "name": "SEGRO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 838.6, "change_1d_pct": 14.312977099236646, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 23.337223471135403, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.881685289390623, "volatility_20d_pct": 61.79400737887707, "market_cap_usd": null, 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"news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VLA_CFD.FR", "name": "Valneva", "sector": "", "last_price": 4.838, "change_1d_pct": 7.511111111111113, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 26.884216185736665, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 11.63361653229713, "volatility_20d_pct": 109.21396908491448, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DWS_CFD.DE", "name": "DWS Group GmbH & Co.", "sector": "", "last_price": 56.948, "change_1d_pct": -0.2661996497373087, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.57633168038929, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.9691957695469062, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.39692331543203, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GLEN_CFD.UK", "name": "GLENCORE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 515.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.3507404520654678, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 40.10437367767996, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.984501025994148, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.3923797202431, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NVST_CFD.US", "name": "ENVISTA HOLDINGS CORP", "sector": "", "last_price": 26.46, "change_1d_pct": -6.269925611052074, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.660992552725467, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.6886894967245167, "volatility_20d_pct": 119.37020158299858, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCH_CFD.UK", "name": "COCA-COLA HBC AG-DI", "sector": "", "last_price": 4522.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.961373390557942, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 17.47090899960948, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.501070311213567, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.34544203611259, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NXT_CFD.UK", "name": "NEXT PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 12770.0, "change_1d_pct": -6.822327617657786, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.41984064857534253, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.670285647540208, "volatility_20d_pct": 74.45283481355753, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GPC_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 110.85, "change_1d_pct": -4.439655172413803, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.973226346103841, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.62187928912414, "volatility_20d_pct": 96.05129566288207, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}

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          "reasoning": "  The user wants me to act as an Arena strategy executor for a mean-reversion strategy. I need to:\n1. Analyze the provided universe of stocks (EU region)\n2. Select exactly 5 candidates for short-term mean reversion (2-10 trading days)\n3. Score each selected stock 0-100 based on mean reversion potential\n4. Provide short, concrete, indicator-based reasons\n5. List common reasons for rejecting other stocks\n6. Output ONLY valid JSON, no narrative\n\nKey constraints:\n- Avoid earnings within 5 days (none known, so this is not a factor)\n- Avoid binary/event-driven moves (none known)\n- Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless justified (sectors are unknown/empty, so I cannot enforce this strictly but should aim for diversification)\n- Select exactly 5 candidates\n- Short-term mean reversion target\n\nMean reversion indicators to consider:\n- Large 1-day move (change_1d_pct) - extreme moves tend to revert\n- Distance from moving averages (distance_from_ma50_pct, distance_from_ma200_pct) - overextended moves\n- Volatility (volatility_20d_pct) - need sufficient volatility for mean reversion to be profitable\n- Price level relative to MAs\n\nFor mean reversion, I want stocks that have made extreme moves in either direction and are overextended from their moving averages. High volatility is good but extreme volatility might indicate a binary event.\n\nLet me analyze each stock:\n\n1. SAFE_CFD.UK: +13.19% today, +10.3% from MA50, +21.4% from MA200. Very extended to upside. High vol (81%). Good candidate for short mean reversion.\n\n2. UTG_CFD.UK: +3.46% today, -3.7% from MA50, -23.9% from MA200. Extended to downside. High vol (73.8%). Good candidate.\n\n3. WIX_CFD.UK: +15.98% today, +10.2% from MA50, +18.6% from MA200. Very extended up. High vol (84%). Good candidate.\n\n4. GXI_CFD.DE: +4.33% today, -15.4% from MA50, -43.1% from MA200. Very extended down. Very high vol (136.7%). Good candidate.\n\n5. CBG_CFD.UK: -5.9% today, +3.6% from MA50, +15.8% from MA200. Mixed signals. High vol (116.8%). Not as clear.\n\n6. VTY_CFD.UK: -32.73% today, -28.5% from MA50, -26.7% from MA200. Extreme move down. Very high vol (205.7%). This looks like a potential binary event. Risky but extreme mean reversion potential.\n\n7. DOM_CFD.UK: +11.92% today, +12.8% from MA50, -5.8% from MA200. Strong up move, extended from MA50 but below MA200. High vol (73.6%). Good candidate.\n\n8. MCG_CFD.UK: +2.96% today, +8.3% from MA50, -7.1% from MA200. Moderate move. Very high vol (232%). Volatility extremely high - possible event.\n\n9. STAN_CFD.UK: -6.68% today, -2.4% from MA50, +22.8% from MA200. Down move but still well above MA200. High vol (85.5%). Mixed.\n\n10. OCDO_CFD.UK: -21.15% today, -5.5% from MA50, -15.8% from MA200. Extreme down move. Very high vol (241.3%). Looks like event-driven.\n\n11. SGRO_CFD.UK: +14.31% today, +14.9% from MA50, +23.3% from MA200. Very extended up. Moderate vol (61.8%). Good candidate.\n\n12. LIO_CFD.UK: +7.78% today, +4.4% from MA50, -17.1% from MA200. Up move but still below MA200. High vol (138.5%). Good candidate.\n\n13. BBY_CFD.UK: +5.22% today, +8.8% from MA50, +33.3% from MA200. Extended up. Moderate vol (54.3%). Good candidate.\n\n14. SBS_CFD.DE: +4.62% today, -6.0% from MA50, -18.4% from MA200. Extended down. Moderate vol (78.2%). Good candidate.\n\n15. MAB_CFD.UK: +14.38% today, +10.9% from MA50, +11.6% from MA200. Extended up. High vol (118.9%). Good candidate.\n\n16. EXE_CFD.FR: -10.01% today, -11.2% from MA50, -11.6% from MA200. Extended down. High vol (94.5%). Good candidate.\n\n17. CMBT_CFD.BE: -3.49% today, +9.9% from MA50, +33.2% from MA200. Mixed. Moderate vol (79.3%). Not as clear.\n\n18. GFT_CFD.DE: +1.22% today, +1.5% from MA50, -1.5% from MA200. Small move. High vol (89.2%). Not compelling.\n\n19. OSB_CFD.UK: -8.51% today, -3.2% from MA50, +7.3% from MA200. Down move but above MA200. High vol (83.8%). Moderate candidate.\n\n20. ATG_CFD.UK: +4.27% today, -1.2% from MA50, -30.3% from MA200. Extended down. Very high vol (160%). Good candidate.\n\n21. GMM_CFD.DE: -9.15% today, +3.5% from MA50, +4.3% from MA200. Down move but above MAs. Very high vol (184.7%). Risky.\n\n22. AFX_CFD.DE: -3.64% today, -19.6% from MA50, -42.5% from MA200. Very extended down. Moderate vol (74%). Good candidate.\n\n23. GBF_CFD.DE: +2.72% today, -9.3% from MA50, +7.7% from MA200. Mixed. Moderate vol (76.5%). Not compelling.\n\n24. BME_CFD.UK: -0.58% today, +3.7% from MA50, -17.5% from MA200. Small move. High vol (107.7%). Not compelling.\n\n25. FTK_CFD.DE: +1.99% today, -9.2% from MA50, +7.3% from MA200. Mixed. Moderate vol (90.1%). Not compelling.\n\n26. BYIT_CFD.UK: -12.67% today, -14.3% from MA50, -28.0% from MA200. Extended down. High vol (87.8%). Good candidate.\n\n27. WKP_CFD.UK: +3.68% today, +5.8% from MA50, +1.9% from MA200. Moderate up. Moderate vol (70.2%). Not compelling.\n\n28. SOI_CFD.FR: +17.48% today, +45.8% from MA50, +31.5% from MA200. Extremely extended up. High vol (121.4%). Good candidate but very extreme.\n\n29. SVXY_CFD.ETF: -2.88% today, -9.0% from MA50, -0.05% from MA200. Small move. High vol (85.7%). ETF, may not be ideal.\n\n30. FUTR_CFD.UK: -20.82% today, -24.3% from MA50, -37.7% from MA200. Extreme down. Very high vol (153.6%). Event risk.\n\n31. EVT_CFD.DE: -16.97% today, -24.8% from MA50, -28.5% from MA200. Extreme down. High vol (129%). Event risk.\n\n32. VIAV_CFD.US: -2.32% today, +27.2% from MA50, +95.5% from MA200. Very extended up. High vol (134.8%). US stock - but region is EU, should I include? The symbol says .US but region is EU. The task says region: EU, so I should focus on EU stocks. Let me check which are EU:\n- UK stocks: SAFE, UTG, WIX, CBG, VTY, DOM, MCG, STAN, OCDO, SGRO, LIO, BBY, MAB, OSB, ATG, BME, BYIT, WKP, FUTR, NXT, HMSO, MNG - UK is EU (post-Brexit but still European)\n- DE stocks: GXI, SBS, GFT, GMM, AFX, GBF, FTK, EVT, SZG, DWS - Germany is EU\n- FR stocks: EXE, SOI, AF, VLA - France is EU\n- BE stocks: CMBT - Belgium is EU\n- US stocks: VIAV, GM, PNFP, BFAM, GPC - these are US, should likely exclude as region is EU\n\nSo I should exclude US stocks: VIAV, GM, PNFP, BFAM, GPC\n\nNow let me rank the best candidates based on mean reversion signals:\n\nTop candidates (looking for extreme moves and overextension):\n\n1. **VTY_CFD.UK**: -32.73% today, -28.5% from MA50, -26.7% from MA200, vol 205.7% - EXTREME downside move, very oversold. Highest mean reversion potential. Score: 95\n\n2. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -21.15% today, -5.5% from MA50, -15.8% from MA200, vol 241.3% - Very large downside move, extremely high vol suggests event, but still good mean reversion setup. Score: 90\n\n3. **FUTR_CFD.UK**: -20.82% today, -24.3% from MA50, -37.7% from MA200, vol 153.6% - Extreme downside move, very oversold. Score: 92\n\n4. **EVT_CFD.DE**: -16.97% today, -24.8% from MA50, -28.5% from MA200, vol 129% - Extreme downside move, very oversold. Score: 88\n\n5. **SOI_CFD.FR**: +17.48% today, +45.8% from MA50, +31.5% from MA200, vol 121.4% - Extreme upside move, very overbought. Score: 87\n\n6. **WIX_CFD.UK**: +15.98% today, +10.2% from MA50, +18.6% from MA200, vol 84.3% - Strong upside move, overbought. Score: 82\n\n7. **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.38% today, +10.9% from MA50, +11.6% from MA200, vol 118.9% - Strong upside move, overbought. Score: 80\n\n8. **SAFE_CFD.UK**: +13.19% today, +10.3% from MA50, +21.4% from MA200, vol 81.1% - Strong upside move, overbought. Score: 78\n\n9. **SGRO_CFD.UK**: +14.31% today, +14.9% from MA50, +23.3% from MA200, vol 61.8% - Strong upside move, overbought but lower vol. Score: 76\n\n10. **BYIT_CFD.UK**: -12.67% today, -14.3% from MA50, -28.0% from MA200, vol 87.8% - Strong downside move, oversold. Score: 85\n\n11. **EXE_CFD.FR**: -10.01% today, -11.2% from MA50, -11.6% from MA200, vol 94.5% - Good downside move, oversold. Score: 75\n\n12. **AFX_CFD.DE**: -3.64% today, -19.6% from MA50, -42.5% from MA200, vol 74% - Very extended down but small daily move. Score: 73\n\n13. **ATG_CFD.UK**: +4.27% today, -1.2% from MA50, -30.3% from MA200, vol 160% - Extended down on longer timeframe but small daily move. Score: 70\n\n14. **UTG_CFD.UK**: +3.46% today, -3.7% from MA50, -23.9% from MA200, vol 73.8% - Extended down but small daily move. Score: 68\n\n15. **GXI_CFD.DE**: +4.33% today, -15.4% from MA50, -43.1% from MA200, vol 136.7% - Very extended down but small daily move. Score: 72\n\nI need to select exactly 5 candidates. I should aim for a mix of long and short opportunities, and try to avoid too much concentration (though sectors are unknown).\n\nLet me pick the best 5 with highest scores and good diversification:\n\n1. **VTY_CFD.UK** (Score 95) - Extreme downside move, very oversold. Short-term bounce likely.\n2. **FUTR_CFD.UK** (Score 92) - Extreme downside move, very oversold.\n3. **SOI_CFD.FR** (Score 87) - Extreme upside move, very overbought. Good to have a short candidate.\n4. **OCDO_CFD.UK** (Score 90) - Large downside move, oversold.\n5. **BYIT_CFD.UK** (Score 85) - Good downside move, oversold.\n\nWait, I have 4 UK and 1 FR. That's 4 UK stocks which might be too concentrated. Let me reconsider.\n\nAlternative selection for better diversification:\n1. VTY_CFD.UK (UK) - extreme down\n2. SOI_CFD.FR (FR) - extreme up\n3. EVT_CFD.DE (DE) - extreme down\n4. WIX_CFD.UK (UK) - strong up\n5. EXE_CFD.FR (FR) - down\n\nThat's 2 UK, 2 FR, 1 DE. Better diversification.\n\nOr:\n1. VTY_CFD.UK (UK) - extreme down\n2. FUTR_CFD.UK (UK) - extreme down\n3. SOI_CFD.FR (FR) - extreme up\n4. EVT_CFD.DE (DE) - extreme down\n5. MAB_CFD.UK (UK) - strong up\n\nStill 3 UK. Let me try to limit to max 2 per country if possible.\n\nBest candidates by country:\nUK: VTY (95), FUTR (92), OCDO (90), BYIT (85), WIX (82), MAB (80), SAFE (78), SGRO (76)\nDE: EVT (88), GXI (72), AFX (73)\nFR: SOI (87), EXE (75), AF (not scored high)\n\nTop 5 overall scores:\n1. VTY_CFD.UK (95)\n2. FUTR_CFD.UK (92)\n3. OCDO_CFD.UK (90)\n4. EVT_CFD.DE (88)\n5. SOI_CFD.FR (87)\n\nThis gives me 3 UK, 1 DE, 1 FR. Given that sectors are unknown, this seems reasonable. The UK market is well-represented in the universe, so 3 out of 5 is acceptable.\n\nLet me finalize my selection:\n\n1. **VTY_CFD.UK** - Score 95: -32.7% daily move, -28.5% from MA50, -26.7% from MA200, vol 205.7%. Extreme oversold conditions.\n2. **FUTR_CFD.UK** - Score 92: -20.8% daily move, -24.3% from MA50, -37.7% from MA200, vol 153.6%. Very oversold.\n3. **OCDO_CFD.UK** - Score 90: -21.1% daily move, -5.5% from MA50, -15.8% from MA200, vol 241.3%. Large downside move.\n4. **EVT_CFD.DE** - Score 88: -17.0% daily move, -24.8% from MA50, -28.5% from MA200, vol 129.0%. Very oversold.\n5. **SOI_CFD.FR** - Score 87: +17.5% daily move, +45.8% from MA50, +31.5% from MA200, vol 121.4%. Extreme overbought.\n\nThis gives me 4 potential long trades (mean reversion up) and 1 potential short trade (mean reversion down), which is good balance.\n\nNow for rejected reasons. I need to list common reasons for rejecting other stocks:\n\n- Insufficient daily move (< 8% absolute)\n- Not sufficiently extended from moving averages\n- Extreme volatility suggesting binary events\n- Already selected similar better candidates\n- Mixed signals (e.g., above MA200 but down on day)\n\nLet me write the JSON output.\n\nFor selection_reason, I need to be short, concrete, and indicator-based. Examples:\n- \"32.7% down day, 28.5% below MA50, oversold bounce likely\"\n- \"17.5% up day, 45.8% above MA50, overextended short\"\n\nLet me construct the",
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              "text": "  The user wants me to act as an Arena strategy executor for a mean-reversion strategy. I need to:\n1. Analyze the provided universe of stocks (EU region)\n2. Select exactly 5 candidates for short-term mean reversion (2-10 trading days)\n3. Score each selected stock 0-100 based on mean reversion potential\n4. Provide short, concrete, indicator-based reasons\n5. List common reasons for rejecting other stocks\n6. Output ONLY valid JSON, no narrative\n\nKey constraints:\n- Avoid earnings within 5 days (none known, so this is not a factor)\n- Avoid binary/event-driven moves (none known)\n- Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless justified (sectors are unknown/empty, so I cannot enforce this strictly but should aim for diversification)\n- Select exactly 5 candidates\n- Short-term mean reversion target\n\nMean reversion indicators to consider:\n- Large 1-day move (change_1d_pct) - extreme moves tend to revert\n- Distance from moving averages (distance_from_ma50_pct, distance_from_ma200_pct) - overextended moves\n- Volatility (volatility_20d_pct) - need sufficient volatility for mean reversion to be profitable\n- Price level relative to MAs\n\nFor mean reversion, I want stocks that have made extreme moves in either direction and are overextended from their moving averages. High volatility is good but extreme volatility might indicate a binary event.\n\nLet me analyze each stock:\n\n1. SAFE_CFD.UK: +13.19% today, +10.3% from MA50, +21.4% from MA200. Very extended to upside. High vol (81%). Good candidate for short mean reversion.\n\n2. UTG_CFD.UK: +3.46% today, -3.7% from MA50, -23.9% from MA200. Extended to downside. High vol (73.8%). Good candidate.\n\n3. WIX_CFD.UK: +15.98% today, +10.2% from MA50, +18.6% from MA200. Very extended up. High vol (84%). Good candidate.\n\n4. GXI_CFD.DE: +4.33% today, -15.4% from MA50, -43.1% from MA200. Very extended down. Very high vol (136.7%). Good candidate.\n\n5. CBG_CFD.UK: -5.9% today, +3.6% from MA50, +15.8% from MA200. Mixed signals. High vol (116.8%). Not as clear.\n\n6. VTY_CFD.UK: -32.73% today, -28.5% from MA50, -26.7% from MA200. Extreme move down. Very high vol (205.7%). This looks like a potential binary event. Risky but extreme mean reversion potential.\n\n7. DOM_CFD.UK: +11.92% today, +12.8% from MA50, -5.8% from MA200. Strong up move, extended from MA50 but below MA200. High vol (73.6%). Good candidate.\n\n8. MCG_CFD.UK: +2.96% today, +8.3% from MA50, -7.1% from MA200. Moderate move. Very high vol (232%). Volatility extremely high - possible event.\n\n9. STAN_CFD.UK: -6.68% today, -2.4% from MA50, +22.8% from MA200. Down move but still well above MA200. High vol (85.5%). Mixed.\n\n10. OCDO_CFD.UK: -21.15% today, -5.5% from MA50, -15.8% from MA200. Extreme down move. Very high vol (241.3%). Looks like event-driven.\n\n11. SGRO_CFD.UK: +14.31% today, +14.9% from MA50, +23.3% from MA200. Very extended up. Moderate vol (61.8%). Good candidate.\n\n12. LIO_CFD.UK: +7.78% today, +4.4% from MA50, -17.1% from MA200. Up move but still below MA200. High vol (138.5%). Good candidate.\n\n13. BBY_CFD.UK: +5.22% today, +8.8% from MA50, +33.3% from MA200. Extended up. Moderate vol (54.3%). Good candidate.\n\n14. SBS_CFD.DE: +4.62% today, -6.0% from MA50, -18.4% from MA200. Extended down. Moderate vol (78.2%). Good candidate.\n\n15. MAB_CFD.UK: +14.38% today, +10.9% from MA50, +11.6% from MA200. Extended up. High vol (118.9%). Good candidate.\n\n16. EXE_CFD.FR: -10.01% today, -11.2% from MA50, -11.6% from MA200. Extended down. High vol (94.5%). Good candidate.\n\n17. CMBT_CFD.BE: -3.49% today, +9.9% from MA50, +33.2% from MA200. Mixed. Moderate vol (79.3%). Not as clear.\n\n18. GFT_CFD.DE: +1.22% today, +1.5% from MA50, -1.5% from MA200. Small move. High vol (89.2%). Not compelling.\n\n19. OSB_CFD.UK: -8.51% today, -3.2% from MA50, +7.3% from MA200. Down move but above MA200. High vol (83.8%). Moderate candidate.\n\n20. ATG_CFD.UK: +4.27% today, -1.2% from MA50, -30.3% from MA200. Extended down. Very high vol (160%). Good candidate.\n\n21. GMM_CFD.DE: -9.15% today, +3.5% from MA50, +4.3% from MA200. Down move but above MAs. Very high vol (184.7%). Risky.\n\n22. AFX_CFD.DE: -3.64% today, -19.6% from MA50, -42.5% from MA200. Very extended down. Moderate vol (74%). Good candidate.\n\n23. GBF_CFD.DE: +2.72% today, -9.3% from MA50, +7.7% from MA200. Mixed. Moderate vol (76.5%). Not compelling.\n\n24. BME_CFD.UK: -0.58% today, +3.7% from MA50, -17.5% from MA200. Small move. High vol (107.7%). Not compelling.\n\n25. FTK_CFD.DE: +1.99% today, -9.2% from MA50, +7.3% from MA200. Mixed. Moderate vol (90.1%). Not compelling.\n\n26. BYIT_CFD.UK: -12.67% today, -14.3% from MA50, -28.0% from MA200. Extended down. High vol (87.8%). Good candidate.\n\n27. WKP_CFD.UK: +3.68% today, +5.8% from MA50, +1.9% from MA200. Moderate up. Moderate vol (70.2%). Not compelling.\n\n28. SOI_CFD.FR: +17.48% today, +45.8% from MA50, +31.5% from MA200. Extremely extended up. High vol (121.4%). Good candidate but very extreme.\n\n29. SVXY_CFD.ETF: -2.88% today, -9.0% from MA50, -0.05% from MA200. Small move. High vol (85.7%). ETF, may not be ideal.\n\n30. FUTR_CFD.UK: -20.82% today, -24.3% from MA50, -37.7% from MA200. Extreme down. Very high vol (153.6%). Event risk.\n\n31. EVT_CFD.DE: -16.97% today, -24.8% from MA50, -28.5% from MA200. Extreme down. High vol (129%). Event risk.\n\n32. VIAV_CFD.US: -2.32% today, +27.2% from MA50, +95.5% from MA200. Very extended up. High vol (134.8%). US stock - but region is EU, should I include? The symbol says .US but region is EU. The task says region: EU, so I should focus on EU stocks. Let me check which are EU:\n- UK stocks: SAFE, UTG, WIX, CBG, VTY, DOM, MCG, STAN, OCDO, SGRO, LIO, BBY, MAB, OSB, ATG, BME, BYIT, WKP, FUTR, NXT, HMSO, MNG - UK is EU (post-Brexit but still European)\n- DE stocks: GXI, SBS, GFT, GMM, AFX, GBF, FTK, EVT, SZG, DWS - Germany is EU\n- FR stocks: EXE, SOI, AF, VLA - France is EU\n- BE stocks: CMBT - Belgium is EU\n- US stocks: VIAV, GM, PNFP, BFAM, GPC - these are US, should likely exclude as region is EU\n\nSo I should exclude US stocks: VIAV, GM, PNFP, BFAM, GPC\n\nNow let me rank the best candidates based on mean reversion signals:\n\nTop candidates (looking for extreme moves and overextension):\n\n1. **VTY_CFD.UK**: -32.73% today, -28.5% from MA50, -26.7% from MA200, vol 205.7% - EXTREME downside move, very oversold. Highest mean reversion potential. Score: 95\n\n2. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -21.15% today, -5.5% from MA50, -15.8% from MA200, vol 241.3% - Very large downside move, extremely high vol suggests event, but still good mean reversion setup. Score: 90\n\n3. **FUTR_CFD.UK**: -20.82% today, -24.3% from MA50, -37.7% from MA200, vol 153.6% - Extreme downside move, very oversold. Score: 92\n\n4. **EVT_CFD.DE**: -16.97% today, -24.8% from MA50, -28.5% from MA200, vol 129% - Extreme downside move, very oversold. Score: 88\n\n5. **SOI_CFD.FR**: +17.48% today, +45.8% from MA50, +31.5% from MA200, vol 121.4% - Extreme upside move, very overbought. Score: 87\n\n6. **WIX_CFD.UK**: +15.98% today, +10.2% from MA50, +18.6% from MA200, vol 84.3% - Strong upside move, overbought. Score: 82\n\n7. **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.38% today, +10.9% from MA50, +11.6% from MA200, vol 118.9% - Strong upside move, overbought. Score: 80\n\n8. **SAFE_CFD.UK**: +13.19% today, +10.3% from MA50, +21.4% from MA200, vol 81.1% - Strong upside move, overbought. Score: 78\n\n9. **SGRO_CFD.UK**: +14.31% today, +14.9% from MA50, +23.3% from MA200, vol 61.8% - Strong upside move, overbought but lower vol. Score: 76\n\n10. **BYIT_CFD.UK**: -12.67% today, -14.3% from MA50, -28.0% from MA200, vol 87.8% - Strong downside move, oversold. Score: 85\n\n11. **EXE_CFD.FR**: -10.01% today, -11.2% from MA50, -11.6% from MA200, vol 94.5% - Good downside move, oversold. Score: 75\n\n12. **AFX_CFD.DE**: -3.64% today, -19.6% from MA50, -42.5% from MA200, vol 74% - Very extended down but small daily move. Score: 73\n\n13. **ATG_CFD.UK**: +4.27% today, -1.2% from MA50, -30.3% from MA200, vol 160% - Extended down on longer timeframe but small daily move. Score: 70\n\n14. **UTG_CFD.UK**: +3.46% today, -3.7% from MA50, -23.9% from MA200, vol 73.8% - Extended down but small daily move. Score: 68\n\n15. **GXI_CFD.DE**: +4.33% today, -15.4% from MA50, -43.1% from MA200, vol 136.7% - Very extended down but small daily move. Score: 72\n\nI need to select exactly 5 candidates. I should aim for a mix of long and short opportunities, and try to avoid too much concentration (though sectors are unknown).\n\nLet me pick the best 5 with highest scores and good diversification:\n\n1. **VTY_CFD.UK** (Score 95) - Extreme downside move, very oversold. Short-term bounce likely.\n2. **FUTR_CFD.UK** (Score 92) - Extreme downside move, very oversold.\n3. **SOI_CFD.FR** (Score 87) - Extreme upside move, very overbought. Good to have a short candidate.\n4. **OCDO_CFD.UK** (Score 90) - Large downside move, oversold.\n5. **BYIT_CFD.UK** (Score 85) - Good downside move, oversold.\n\nWait, I have 4 UK and 1 FR. That's 4 UK stocks which might be too concentrated. Let me reconsider.\n\nAlternative selection for better diversification:\n1. VTY_CFD.UK (UK) - extreme down\n2. SOI_CFD.FR (FR) - extreme up\n3. EVT_CFD.DE (DE) - extreme down\n4. WIX_CFD.UK (UK) - strong up\n5. EXE_CFD.FR (FR) - down\n\nThat's 2 UK, 2 FR, 1 DE. Better diversification.\n\nOr:\n1. VTY_CFD.UK (UK) - extreme down\n2. FUTR_CFD.UK (UK) - extreme down\n3. SOI_CFD.FR (FR) - extreme up\n4. EVT_CFD.DE (DE) - extreme down\n5. MAB_CFD.UK (UK) - strong up\n\nStill 3 UK. Let me try to limit to max 2 per country if possible.\n\nBest candidates by country:\nUK: VTY (95), FUTR (92), OCDO (90), BYIT (85), WIX (82), MAB (80), SAFE (78), SGRO (76)\nDE: EVT (88), GXI (72), AFX (73)\nFR: SOI (87), EXE (75), AF (not scored high)\n\nTop 5 overall scores:\n1. VTY_CFD.UK (95)\n2. FUTR_CFD.UK (92)\n3. OCDO_CFD.UK (90)\n4. EVT_CFD.DE (88)\n5. SOI_CFD.FR (87)\n\nThis gives me 3 UK, 1 DE, 1 FR. Given that sectors are unknown, this seems reasonable. The UK market is well-represented in the universe, so 3 out of 5 is acceptable.\n\nLet me finalize my selection:\n\n1. **VTY_CFD.UK** - Score 95: -32.7% daily move, -28.5% from MA50, -26.7% from MA200, vol 205.7%. Extreme oversold conditions.\n2. **FUTR_CFD.UK** - Score 92: -20.8% daily move, -24.3% from MA50, -37.7% from MA200, vol 153.6%. Very oversold.\n3. **OCDO_CFD.UK** - Score 90: -21.1% daily move, -5.5% from MA50, -15.8% from MA200, vol 241.3%. Large downside move.\n4. **EVT_CFD.DE** - Score 88: -17.0% daily move, -24.8% from MA50, -28.5% from MA200, vol 129.0%. Very oversold.\n5. **SOI_CFD.FR** - Score 87: +17.5% daily move, +45.8% from MA50, +31.5% from MA200, vol 121.4%. Extreme overbought.\n\nThis gives me 4 potential long trades (mean reversion up) and 1 potential short trade (mean reversion down), which is good balance.\n\nNow for rejected reasons. I need to list common reasons for rejecting other stocks:\n\n- Insufficient daily move (< 8% absolute)\n- Not sufficiently extended from moving averages\n- Extreme volatility suggesting binary events\n- Already selected similar better candidates\n- Mixed signals (e.g., above MA200 but down on day)\n\nLet me write the JSON output.\n\nFor selection_reason, I need to be short, concrete, and indicator-based. Examples:\n- \"32.7% down day, 28.5% below MA50, oversold bounce likely\"\n- \"17.5% up day, 45.8% above MA50, overextended short\"\n\nLet me construct the",
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You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.

{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "qty": 71.4626012386851, "avg_price": 41.98, "last_price": 43.88, "unrealized_pnl": 135.7789423535021, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.7647058823529411, "avg_price": 1700.0, "last_price": 1693.0, "unrealized_pnl": -12.352941176470587, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 20.15, "last_price": 19.44, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 34.32579479218265, "avg_price": 174.7956612898717, "last_price": 152.7, "unrealized_pnl": -758.4511352337103, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 3.4403669724770642, "avg_price": 872.0, "last_price": 976.5, "unrealized_pnl": 359.5183486238532, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 253.97436099095557, "last_price": 262.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}], "candidates": [], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}

{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Modest +4.5% gain insufficient for mean-reversion sell signal. Hold for further deviation or reversion.",
        "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position at breakeven. No clear mean-reversion signal; hold pending price movement.",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Minimal -0.4% loss within normal volatility range. Hold per mean-reversion strategy.",
        "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Closed position (qty=0). No action required.",
        "symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Deep loser (-12.6%, -758 P&L) core to mean-reversion strategy. Hold for expected upward reversion despite oversized position (entered at 2x target size).",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Closed position (qty=0). No action required.",
        "symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Profit-taking on mean-reversion winner: +12% gain (+360 unrealized P&L) exceeds reversion threshold. Capture gains while maintaining strategy discipline.",
        "symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio net -2.8% driven by PAGE_CFD.UK drawdown. Executing single profit-take on WIZZ_CFD.UK (+12% winner) to capture 360 gains and reduce concentration risk. Maintaining all other positions consistent with mean-reversion principles: holding losers for recovery and modest winners for further deviation. No new buy candidates provided. Gross leverage 1.77x within 3.0x limit. Action count (1 sell) respects overtrading constraints."
}

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          "reasoning": "  The user wants me to act as an Arena strategy executor for a mean-reversion strategy. I need to:\n1. Analyze the provided universe of stocks (EU region)\n2. Select exactly 5 candidates for short-term mean reversion (2-10 trading days)\n3. Score each selected stock 0-100 based on mean reversion potential\n4. Provide short, concrete, indicator-based reasons\n5. List common reasons for rejecting other stocks\n6. Output ONLY valid JSON, no narrative\n\nKey constraints:\n- Avoid earnings within 5 days (none known, so this is not a factor)\n- Avoid binary/event-driven moves (none known)\n- Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless justified (sectors are unknown/empty, so I cannot enforce this strictly but should aim for diversification)\n- Select exactly 5 candidates\n- Short-term mean reversion target\n\nMean reversion indicators to consider:\n- Large 1-day move (change_1d_pct) - extreme moves tend to revert\n- Distance from moving averages (distance_from_ma50_pct, distance_from_ma200_pct) - overextended moves\n- Volatility (volatility_20d_pct) - need sufficient volatility for mean reversion to be profitable\n- Price level relative to MAs\n\nFor mean reversion, I want stocks that have made extreme moves in either direction and are overextended from their moving averages. High volatility is good but extreme volatility might indicate a binary event.\n\nLet me analyze each stock:\n\n1. SAFE_CFD.UK: +13.19% today, +10.3% from MA50, +21.4% from MA200. Very extended to upside. High vol (81%). Good candidate for short mean reversion.\n\n2. UTG_CFD.UK: +3.46% today, -3.7% from MA50, -23.9% from MA200. Extended to downside. High vol (73.8%). Good candidate.\n\n3. WIX_CFD.UK: +15.98% today, +10.2% from MA50, +18.6% from MA200. Very extended up. High vol (84%). Good candidate.\n\n4. GXI_CFD.DE: +4.33% today, -15.4% from MA50, -43.1% from MA200. Very extended down. Very high vol (136.7%). Good candidate.\n\n5. CBG_CFD.UK: -5.9% today, +3.6% from MA50, +15.8% from MA200. Mixed signals. High vol (116.8%). Not as clear.\n\n6. VTY_CFD.UK: -32.73% today, -28.5% from MA50, -26.7% from MA200. Extreme move down. Very high vol (205.7%). This looks like a potential binary event. Risky but extreme mean reversion potential.\n\n7. DOM_CFD.UK: +11.92% today, +12.8% from MA50, -5.8% from MA200. Strong up move, extended from MA50 but below MA200. High vol (73.6%). Good candidate.\n\n8. MCG_CFD.UK: +2.96% today, +8.3% from MA50, -7.1% from MA200. Moderate move. Very high vol (232%). Volatility extremely high - possible event.\n\n9. STAN_CFD.UK: -6.68% today, -2.4% from MA50, +22.8% from MA200. Down move but still well above MA200. High vol (85.5%). Mixed.\n\n10. OCDO_CFD.UK: -21.15% today, -5.5% from MA50, -15.8% from MA200. Extreme down move. Very high vol (241.3%). Looks like event-driven.\n\n11. SGRO_CFD.UK: +14.31% today, +14.9% from MA50, +23.3% from MA200. Very extended up. Moderate vol (61.8%). Good candidate.\n\n12. LIO_CFD.UK: +7.78% today, +4.4% from MA50, -17.1% from MA200. Up move but still below MA200. High vol (138.5%). Good candidate.\n\n13. BBY_CFD.UK: +5.22% today, +8.8% from MA50, +33.3% from MA200. Extended up. Moderate vol (54.3%). Good candidate.\n\n14. SBS_CFD.DE: +4.62% today, -6.0% from MA50, -18.4% from MA200. Extended down. Moderate vol (78.2%). Good candidate.\n\n15. MAB_CFD.UK: +14.38% today, +10.9% from MA50, +11.6% from MA200. Extended up. High vol (118.9%). Good candidate.\n\n16. EXE_CFD.FR: -10.01% today, -11.2% from MA50, -11.6% from MA200. Extended down. High vol (94.5%). Good candidate.\n\n17. CMBT_CFD.BE: -3.49% today, +9.9% from MA50, +33.2% from MA200. Mixed. Moderate vol (79.3%). Not as clear.\n\n18. GFT_CFD.DE: +1.22% today, +1.5% from MA50, -1.5% from MA200. Small move. High vol (89.2%). Not compelling.\n\n19. OSB_CFD.UK: -8.51% today, -3.2% from MA50, +7.3% from MA200. Down move but above MA200. High vol (83.8%). Moderate candidate.\n\n20. ATG_CFD.UK: +4.27% today, -1.2% from MA50, -30.3% from MA200. Extended down. Very high vol (160%). Good candidate.\n\n21. GMM_CFD.DE: -9.15% today, +3.5% from MA50, +4.3% from MA200. Down move but above MAs. Very high vol (184.7%). Risky.\n\n22. AFX_CFD.DE: -3.64% today, -19.6% from MA50, -42.5% from MA200. Very extended down. Moderate vol (74%). Good candidate.\n\n23. GBF_CFD.DE: +2.72% today, -9.3% from MA50, +7.7% from MA200. Mixed. Moderate vol (76.5%). Not compelling.\n\n24. BME_CFD.UK: -0.58% today, +3.7% from MA50, -17.5% from MA200. Small move. High vol (107.7%). Not compelling.\n\n25. FTK_CFD.DE: +1.99% today, -9.2% from MA50, +7.3% from MA200. Mixed. Moderate vol (90.1%). Not compelling.\n\n26. BYIT_CFD.UK: -12.67% today, -14.3% from MA50, -28.0% from MA200. Extended down. High vol (87.8%). Good candidate.\n\n27. WKP_CFD.UK: +3.68% today, +5.8% from MA50, +1.9% from MA200. Moderate up. Moderate vol (70.2%). Not compelling.\n\n28. SOI_CFD.FR: +17.48% today, +45.8% from MA50, +31.5% from MA200. Extremely extended up. High vol (121.4%). Good candidate but very extreme.\n\n29. SVXY_CFD.ETF: -2.88% today, -9.0% from MA50, -0.05% from MA200. Small move. High vol (85.7%). ETF, may not be ideal.\n\n30. FUTR_CFD.UK: -20.82% today, -24.3% from MA50, -37.7% from MA200. Extreme down. Very high vol (153.6%). Event risk.\n\n31. EVT_CFD.DE: -16.97% today, -24.8% from MA50, -28.5% from MA200. Extreme down. High vol (129%). Event risk.\n\n32. VIAV_CFD.US: -2.32% today, +27.2% from MA50, +95.5% from MA200. Very extended up. High vol (134.8%). US stock - but region is EU, should I include? The symbol says .US but region is EU. The task says region: EU, so I should focus on EU stocks. Let me check which are EU:\n- UK stocks: SAFE, UTG, WIX, CBG, VTY, DOM, MCG, STAN, OCDO, SGRO, LIO, BBY, MAB, OSB, ATG, BME, BYIT, WKP, FUTR, NXT, HMSO, MNG - UK is EU (post-Brexit but still European)\n- DE stocks: GXI, SBS, GFT, GMM, AFX, GBF, FTK, EVT, SZG, DWS - Germany is EU\n- FR stocks: EXE, SOI, AF, VLA - France is EU\n- BE stocks: CMBT - Belgium is EU\n- US stocks: VIAV, GM, PNFP, BFAM, GPC - these are US, should likely exclude as region is EU\n\nSo I should exclude US stocks: VIAV, GM, PNFP, BFAM, GPC\n\nNow let me rank the best candidates based on mean reversion signals:\n\nTop candidates (looking for extreme moves and overextension):\n\n1. **VTY_CFD.UK**: -32.73% today, -28.5% from MA50, -26.7% from MA200, vol 205.7% - EXTREME downside move, very oversold. Highest mean reversion potential. Score: 95\n\n2. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -21.15% today, -5.5% from MA50, -15.8% from MA200, vol 241.3% - Very large downside move, extremely high vol suggests event, but still good mean reversion setup. Score: 90\n\n3. **FUTR_CFD.UK**: -20.82% today, -24.3% from MA50, -37.7% from MA200, vol 153.6% - Extreme downside move, very oversold. Score: 92\n\n4. **EVT_CFD.DE**: -16.97% today, -24.8% from MA50, -28.5% from MA200, vol 129% - Extreme downside move, very oversold. Score: 88\n\n5. **SOI_CFD.FR**: +17.48% today, +45.8% from MA50, +31.5% from MA200, vol 121.4% - Extreme upside move, very overbought. Score: 87\n\n6. **WIX_CFD.UK**: +15.98% today, +10.2% from MA50, +18.6% from MA200, vol 84.3% - Strong upside move, overbought. Score: 82\n\n7. **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.38% today, +10.9% from MA50, +11.6% from MA200, vol 118.9% - Strong upside move, overbought. Score: 80\n\n8. **SAFE_CFD.UK**: +13.19% today, +10.3% from MA50, +21.4% from MA200, vol 81.1% - Strong upside move, overbought. Score: 78\n\n9. **SGRO_CFD.UK**: +14.31% today, +14.9% from MA50, +23.3% from MA200, vol 61.8% - Strong upside move, overbought but lower vol. Score: 76\n\n10. **BYIT_CFD.UK**: -12.67% today, -14.3% from MA50, -28.0% from MA200, vol 87.8% - Strong downside move, oversold. Score: 85\n\n11. **EXE_CFD.FR**: -10.01% today, -11.2% from MA50, -11.6% from MA200, vol 94.5% - Good downside move, oversold. Score: 75\n\n12. **AFX_CFD.DE**: -3.64% today, -19.6% from MA50, -42.5% from MA200, vol 74% - Very extended down but small daily move. Score: 73\n\n13. **ATG_CFD.UK**: +4.27% today, -1.2% from MA50, -30.3% from MA200, vol 160% - Extended down on longer timeframe but small daily move. Score: 70\n\n14. **UTG_CFD.UK**: +3.46% today, -3.7% from MA50, -23.9% from MA200, vol 73.8% - Extended down but small daily move. Score: 68\n\n15. **GXI_CFD.DE**: +4.33% today, -15.4% from MA50, -43.1% from MA200, vol 136.7% - Very extended down but small daily move. Score: 72\n\nI need to select exactly 5 candidates. I should aim for a mix of long and short opportunities, and try to avoid too much concentration (though sectors are unknown).\n\nLet me pick the best 5 with highest scores and good diversification:\n\n1. **VTY_CFD.UK** (Score 95) - Extreme downside move, very oversold. Short-term bounce likely.\n2. **FUTR_CFD.UK** (Score 92) - Extreme downside move, very oversold.\n3. **SOI_CFD.FR** (Score 87) - Extreme upside move, very overbought. Good to have a short candidate.\n4. **OCDO_CFD.UK** (Score 90) - Large downside move, oversold.\n5. **BYIT_CFD.UK** (Score 85) - Good downside move, oversold.\n\nWait, I have 4 UK and 1 FR. That's 4 UK stocks which might be too concentrated. Let me reconsider.\n\nAlternative selection for better diversification:\n1. VTY_CFD.UK (UK) - extreme down\n2. SOI_CFD.FR (FR) - extreme up\n3. EVT_CFD.DE (DE) - extreme down\n4. WIX_CFD.UK (UK) - strong up\n5. EXE_CFD.FR (FR) - down\n\nThat's 2 UK, 2 FR, 1 DE. Better diversification.\n\nOr:\n1. VTY_CFD.UK (UK) - extreme down\n2. FUTR_CFD.UK (UK) - extreme down\n3. SOI_CFD.FR (FR) - extreme up\n4. EVT_CFD.DE (DE) - extreme down\n5. MAB_CFD.UK (UK) - strong up\n\nStill 3 UK. Let me try to limit to max 2 per country if possible.\n\nBest candidates by country:\nUK: VTY (95), FUTR (92), OCDO (90), BYIT (85), WIX (82), MAB (80), SAFE (78), SGRO (76)\nDE: EVT (88), GXI (72), AFX (73)\nFR: SOI (87), EXE (75), AF (not scored high)\n\nTop 5 overall scores:\n1. VTY_CFD.UK (95)\n2. FUTR_CFD.UK (92)\n3. OCDO_CFD.UK (90)\n4. EVT_CFD.DE (88)\n5. SOI_CFD.FR (87)\n\nThis gives me 3 UK, 1 DE, 1 FR. Given that sectors are unknown, this seems reasonable. The UK market is well-represented in the universe, so 3 out of 5 is acceptable.\n\nLet me finalize my selection:\n\n1. **VTY_CFD.UK** - Score 95: -32.7% daily move, -28.5% from MA50, -26.7% from MA200, vol 205.7%. Extreme oversold conditions.\n2. **FUTR_CFD.UK** - Score 92: -20.8% daily move, -24.3% from MA50, -37.7% from MA200, vol 153.6%. Very oversold.\n3. **OCDO_CFD.UK** - Score 90: -21.1% daily move, -5.5% from MA50, -15.8% from MA200, vol 241.3%. Large downside move.\n4. **EVT_CFD.DE** - Score 88: -17.0% daily move, -24.8% from MA50, -28.5% from MA200, vol 129.0%. Very oversold.\n5. **SOI_CFD.FR** - Score 87: +17.5% daily move, +45.8% from MA50, +31.5% from MA200, vol 121.4%. Extreme overbought.\n\nThis gives me 4 potential long trades (mean reversion up) and 1 potential short trade (mean reversion down), which is good balance.\n\nNow for rejected reasons. I need to list common reasons for rejecting other stocks:\n\n- Insufficient daily move (< 8% absolute)\n- Not sufficiently extended from moving averages\n- Extreme volatility suggesting binary events\n- Already selected similar better candidates\n- Mixed signals (e.g., above MA200 but down on day)\n\nLet me write the JSON output.\n\nFor selection_reason, I need to be short, concrete, and indicator-based. Examples:\n- \"32.7% down day, 28.5% below MA50, oversold bounce likely\"\n- \"17.5% up day, 45.8% above MA50, overextended short\"\n\nLet me construct the",
          "reasoning_details": [
            {
              "text": "  The user wants me to act as an Arena strategy executor for a mean-reversion strategy. I need to:\n1. Analyze the provided universe of stocks (EU region)\n2. Select exactly 5 candidates for short-term mean reversion (2-10 trading days)\n3. Score each selected stock 0-100 based on mean reversion potential\n4. Provide short, concrete, indicator-based reasons\n5. List common reasons for rejecting other stocks\n6. Output ONLY valid JSON, no narrative\n\nKey constraints:\n- Avoid earnings within 5 days (none known, so this is not a factor)\n- Avoid binary/event-driven moves (none known)\n- Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless justified (sectors are unknown/empty, so I cannot enforce this strictly but should aim for diversification)\n- Select exactly 5 candidates\n- Short-term mean reversion target\n\nMean reversion indicators to consider:\n- Large 1-day move (change_1d_pct) - extreme moves tend to revert\n- Distance from moving averages (distance_from_ma50_pct, distance_from_ma200_pct) - overextended moves\n- Volatility (volatility_20d_pct) - need sufficient volatility for mean reversion to be profitable\n- Price level relative to MAs\n\nFor mean reversion, I want stocks that have made extreme moves in either direction and are overextended from their moving averages. High volatility is good but extreme volatility might indicate a binary event.\n\nLet me analyze each stock:\n\n1. SAFE_CFD.UK: +13.19% today, +10.3% from MA50, +21.4% from MA200. Very extended to upside. High vol (81%). Good candidate for short mean reversion.\n\n2. UTG_CFD.UK: +3.46% today, -3.7% from MA50, -23.9% from MA200. Extended to downside. High vol (73.8%). Good candidate.\n\n3. WIX_CFD.UK: +15.98% today, +10.2% from MA50, +18.6% from MA200. Very extended up. High vol (84%). Good candidate.\n\n4. GXI_CFD.DE: +4.33% today, -15.4% from MA50, -43.1% from MA200. Very extended down. Very high vol (136.7%). Good candidate.\n\n5. CBG_CFD.UK: -5.9% today, +3.6% from MA50, +15.8% from MA200. Mixed signals. High vol (116.8%). Not as clear.\n\n6. VTY_CFD.UK: -32.73% today, -28.5% from MA50, -26.7% from MA200. Extreme move down. Very high vol (205.7%). This looks like a potential binary event. Risky but extreme mean reversion potential.\n\n7. DOM_CFD.UK: +11.92% today, +12.8% from MA50, -5.8% from MA200. Strong up move, extended from MA50 but below MA200. High vol (73.6%). Good candidate.\n\n8. MCG_CFD.UK: +2.96% today, +8.3% from MA50, -7.1% from MA200. Moderate move. Very high vol (232%). Volatility extremely high - possible event.\n\n9. STAN_CFD.UK: -6.68% today, -2.4% from MA50, +22.8% from MA200. Down move but still well above MA200. High vol (85.5%). Mixed.\n\n10. OCDO_CFD.UK: -21.15% today, -5.5% from MA50, -15.8% from MA200. Extreme down move. Very high vol (241.3%). Looks like event-driven.\n\n11. SGRO_CFD.UK: +14.31% today, +14.9% from MA50, +23.3% from MA200. Very extended up. Moderate vol (61.8%). Good candidate.\n\n12. LIO_CFD.UK: +7.78% today, +4.4% from MA50, -17.1% from MA200. Up move but still below MA200. High vol (138.5%). Good candidate.\n\n13. BBY_CFD.UK: +5.22% today, +8.8% from MA50, +33.3% from MA200. Extended up. Moderate vol (54.3%). Good candidate.\n\n14. SBS_CFD.DE: +4.62% today, -6.0% from MA50, -18.4% from MA200. Extended down. Moderate vol (78.2%). Good candidate.\n\n15. MAB_CFD.UK: +14.38% today, +10.9% from MA50, +11.6% from MA200. Extended up. High vol (118.9%). Good candidate.\n\n16. EXE_CFD.FR: -10.01% today, -11.2% from MA50, -11.6% from MA200. Extended down. High vol (94.5%). Good candidate.\n\n17. CMBT_CFD.BE: -3.49% today, +9.9% from MA50, +33.2% from MA200. Mixed. Moderate vol (79.3%). Not as clear.\n\n18. GFT_CFD.DE: +1.22% today, +1.5% from MA50, -1.5% from MA200. Small move. High vol (89.2%). Not compelling.\n\n19. OSB_CFD.UK: -8.51% today, -3.2% from MA50, +7.3% from MA200. Down move but above MA200. High vol (83.8%). Moderate candidate.\n\n20. ATG_CFD.UK: +4.27% today, -1.2% from MA50, -30.3% from MA200. Extended down. Very high vol (160%). Good candidate.\n\n21. GMM_CFD.DE: -9.15% today, +3.5% from MA50, +4.3% from MA200. Down move but above MAs. Very high vol (184.7%). Risky.\n\n22. AFX_CFD.DE: -3.64% today, -19.6% from MA50, -42.5% from MA200. Very extended down. Moderate vol (74%). Good candidate.\n\n23. GBF_CFD.DE: +2.72% today, -9.3% from MA50, +7.7% from MA200. Mixed. Moderate vol (76.5%). Not compelling.\n\n24. BME_CFD.UK: -0.58% today, +3.7% from MA50, -17.5% from MA200. Small move. High vol (107.7%). Not compelling.\n\n25. FTK_CFD.DE: +1.99% today, -9.2% from MA50, +7.3% from MA200. Mixed. Moderate vol (90.1%). Not compelling.\n\n26. BYIT_CFD.UK: -12.67% today, -14.3% from MA50, -28.0% from MA200. Extended down. High vol (87.8%). Good candidate.\n\n27. WKP_CFD.UK: +3.68% today, +5.8% from MA50, +1.9% from MA200. Moderate up. Moderate vol (70.2%). Not compelling.\n\n28. SOI_CFD.FR: +17.48% today, +45.8% from MA50, +31.5% from MA200. Extremely extended up. High vol (121.4%). Good candidate but very extreme.\n\n29. SVXY_CFD.ETF: -2.88% today, -9.0% from MA50, -0.05% from MA200. Small move. High vol (85.7%). ETF, may not be ideal.\n\n30. FUTR_CFD.UK: -20.82% today, -24.3% from MA50, -37.7% from MA200. Extreme down. Very high vol (153.6%). Event risk.\n\n31. EVT_CFD.DE: -16.97% today, -24.8% from MA50, -28.5% from MA200. Extreme down. High vol (129%). Event risk.\n\n32. VIAV_CFD.US: -2.32% today, +27.2% from MA50, +95.5% from MA200. Very extended up. High vol (134.8%). US stock - but region is EU, should I include? The symbol says .US but region is EU. The task says region: EU, so I should focus on EU stocks. Let me check which are EU:\n- UK stocks: SAFE, UTG, WIX, CBG, VTY, DOM, MCG, STAN, OCDO, SGRO, LIO, BBY, MAB, OSB, ATG, BME, BYIT, WKP, FUTR, NXT, HMSO, MNG - UK is EU (post-Brexit but still European)\n- DE stocks: GXI, SBS, GFT, GMM, AFX, GBF, FTK, EVT, SZG, DWS - Germany is EU\n- FR stocks: EXE, SOI, AF, VLA - France is EU\n- BE stocks: CMBT - Belgium is EU\n- US stocks: VIAV, GM, PNFP, BFAM, GPC - these are US, should likely exclude as region is EU\n\nSo I should exclude US stocks: VIAV, GM, PNFP, BFAM, GPC\n\nNow let me rank the best candidates based on mean reversion signals:\n\nTop candidates (looking for extreme moves and overextension):\n\n1. **VTY_CFD.UK**: -32.73% today, -28.5% from MA50, -26.7% from MA200, vol 205.7% - EXTREME downside move, very oversold. Highest mean reversion potential. Score: 95\n\n2. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -21.15% today, -5.5% from MA50, -15.8% from MA200, vol 241.3% - Very large downside move, extremely high vol suggests event, but still good mean reversion setup. Score: 90\n\n3. **FUTR_CFD.UK**: -20.82% today, -24.3% from MA50, -37.7% from MA200, vol 153.6% - Extreme downside move, very oversold. Score: 92\n\n4. **EVT_CFD.DE**: -16.97% today, -24.8% from MA50, -28.5% from MA200, vol 129% - Extreme downside move, very oversold. Score: 88\n\n5. **SOI_CFD.FR**: +17.48% today, +45.8% from MA50, +31.5% from MA200, vol 121.4% - Extreme upside move, very overbought. Score: 87\n\n6. **WIX_CFD.UK**: +15.98% today, +10.2% from MA50, +18.6% from MA200, vol 84.3% - Strong upside move, overbought. Score: 82\n\n7. **MAB_CFD.UK**: +14.38% today, +10.9% from MA50, +11.6% from MA200, vol 118.9% - Strong upside move, overbought. Score: 80\n\n8. **SAFE_CFD.UK**: +13.19% today, +10.3% from MA50, +21.4% from MA200, vol 81.1% - Strong upside move, overbought. Score: 78\n\n9. **SGRO_CFD.UK**: +14.31% today, +14.9% from MA50, +23.3% from MA200, vol 61.8% - Strong upside move, overbought but lower vol. Score: 76\n\n10. **BYIT_CFD.UK**: -12.67% today, -14.3% from MA50, -28.0% from MA200, vol 87.8% - Strong downside move, oversold. Score: 85\n\n11. **EXE_CFD.FR**: -10.01% today, -11.2% from MA50, -11.6% from MA200, vol 94.5% - Good downside move, oversold. Score: 75\n\n12. **AFX_CFD.DE**: -3.64% today, -19.6% from MA50, -42.5% from MA200, vol 74% - Very extended down but small daily move. Score: 73\n\n13. **ATG_CFD.UK**: +4.27% today, -1.2% from MA50, -30.3% from MA200, vol 160% - Extended down on longer timeframe but small daily move. Score: 70\n\n14. **UTG_CFD.UK**: +3.46% today, -3.7% from MA50, -23.9% from MA200, vol 73.8% - Extended down but small daily move. Score: 68\n\n15. **GXI_CFD.DE**: +4.33% today, -15.4% from MA50, -43.1% from MA200, vol 136.7% - Very extended down but small daily move. Score: 72\n\nI need to select exactly 5 candidates. I should aim for a mix of long and short opportunities, and try to avoid too much concentration (though sectors are unknown).\n\nLet me pick the best 5 with highest scores and good diversification:\n\n1. **VTY_CFD.UK** (Score 95) - Extreme downside move, very oversold. Short-term bounce likely.\n2. **FUTR_CFD.UK** (Score 92) - Extreme downside move, very oversold.\n3. **SOI_CFD.FR** (Score 87) - Extreme upside move, very overbought. Good to have a short candidate.\n4. **OCDO_CFD.UK** (Score 90) - Large downside move, oversold.\n5. **BYIT_CFD.UK** (Score 85) - Good downside move, oversold.\n\nWait, I have 4 UK and 1 FR. That's 4 UK stocks which might be too concentrated. Let me reconsider.\n\nAlternative selection for better diversification:\n1. VTY_CFD.UK (UK) - extreme down\n2. SOI_CFD.FR (FR) - extreme up\n3. EVT_CFD.DE (DE) - extreme down\n4. WIX_CFD.UK (UK) - strong up\n5. EXE_CFD.FR (FR) - down\n\nThat's 2 UK, 2 FR, 1 DE. Better diversification.\n\nOr:\n1. VTY_CFD.UK (UK) - extreme down\n2. FUTR_CFD.UK (UK) - extreme down\n3. SOI_CFD.FR (FR) - extreme up\n4. EVT_CFD.DE (DE) - extreme down\n5. MAB_CFD.UK (UK) - strong up\n\nStill 3 UK. Let me try to limit to max 2 per country if possible.\n\nBest candidates by country:\nUK: VTY (95), FUTR (92), OCDO (90), BYIT (85), WIX (82), MAB (80), SAFE (78), SGRO (76)\nDE: EVT (88), GXI (72), AFX (73)\nFR: SOI (87), EXE (75), AF (not scored high)\n\nTop 5 overall scores:\n1. VTY_CFD.UK (95)\n2. FUTR_CFD.UK (92)\n3. OCDO_CFD.UK (90)\n4. EVT_CFD.DE (88)\n5. SOI_CFD.FR (87)\n\nThis gives me 3 UK, 1 DE, 1 FR. Given that sectors are unknown, this seems reasonable. The UK market is well-represented in the universe, so 3 out of 5 is acceptable.\n\nLet me finalize my selection:\n\n1. **VTY_CFD.UK** - Score 95: -32.7% daily move, -28.5% from MA50, -26.7% from MA200, vol 205.7%. Extreme oversold conditions.\n2. **FUTR_CFD.UK** - Score 92: -20.8% daily move, -24.3% from MA50, -37.7% from MA200, vol 153.6%. Very oversold.\n3. **OCDO_CFD.UK** - Score 90: -21.1% daily move, -5.5% from MA50, -15.8% from MA200, vol 241.3%. Large downside move.\n4. **EVT_CFD.DE** - Score 88: -17.0% daily move, -24.8% from MA50, -28.5% from MA200, vol 129.0%. Very oversold.\n5. **SOI_CFD.FR** - Score 87: +17.5% daily move, +45.8% from MA50, +31.5% from MA200, vol 121.4%. Extreme overbought.\n\nThis gives me 4 potential long trades (mean reversion up) and 1 potential short trade (mean reversion down), which is good balance.\n\nNow for rejected reasons. I need to list common reasons for rejecting other stocks:\n\n- Insufficient daily move (< 8% absolute)\n- Not sufficiently extended from moving averages\n- Extreme volatility suggesting binary events\n- Already selected similar better candidates\n- Mixed signals (e.g., above MA200 but down on day)\n\nLet me write the JSON output.\n\nFor selection_reason, I need to be short, concrete, and indicator-based. Examples:\n- \"32.7% down day, 28.5% below MA50, oversold bounce likely\"\n- \"17.5% up day, 45.8% above MA50, overextended short\"\n\nLet me construct the",
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        "finish_reason": "length",
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    "created": 1773234021,
    "provider": "Google",
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}