Arena run #534
meanrev-v1 • google • google/gemini-3-pro-preview • US • success
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-09T18:18:45.954380+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-09T18:29:14.034600+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-09T18:30:16.669405+00:00
duration_ms: 62633
Inputs
{
"as_of": "2026-03-09T18:18:45.954380+00:00",
"dry_run": false,
"selected": [
{
"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day spike (+21.87%) significantly above MA200 (+10%), high probability of short-term mean reversion pullback.",
"mean_reversion_score": 95
},
{
"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Strong 1-day rally (+15.98%) extending distance from MA200 to +18%, overbought conditions suggest reversion.",
"mean_reversion_score": 90
},
{
"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Significant 1-day gain (+14.13%) with price extended +22% above MA200, prime candidate for mean reversion short.",
"mean_reversion_score": 88
},
{
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Sharp 1-day decline (-13.36%) creating oversold conditions suitable for a reversion bounce.",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Substantial drop (-12.67%) and deep discount to MA200 (-28%), potential for technical bounce from oversold levels.",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
}
],
"simulate_only": false,
"strict_replay": false,
"universe_symbols": [
"MCG_CFD.UK",
"UTG_CFD.UK",
"WIX_CFD.UK",
"CBG_CFD.UK",
"DOM_CFD.UK",
"DLN_CFD.UK",
"ADJ_CFD.DE",
"BLND_CFD.UK",
"DPLM_CFD.UK",
"LIO_CFD.UK",
"BBY_CFD.UK",
"MAB_CFD.UK",
"ATG_CFD.UK",
"BME_CFD.UK",
"BYIT_CFD.UK",
"DCC_CFD.UK",
"WKP_CFD.UK",
"FUTR_CFD.UK",
"IART_CFD.US",
"CABO_CFD.US",
"CHTR_CFD.US",
"LMND_CFD.US",
"HMSO_CFD.UK",
"HUBS_CFD.US",
"BYW6_CFD.DE",
"FLO_CFD.US",
"KEX_CFD.US",
"ASGN_CFD.US",
"EWY_CFD.ETF",
"ESTC_CFD.US",
"CCH_CFD.UK",
"VTY_CFD.UK",
"MAN_CFD.US",
"COIN_CFD.US",
"GDDY_CFD.US",
"CPAY_CFD.US",
"HAIN_CFD.US",
"VLO_CFD.US",
"ICG_CFD.UK",
"GNRC_CFD.US",
"GRI_CFD.UK",
"LYV_CFD.US",
"AT1_CFD.DE",
"JBLU_CFD.US",
"GO_CFD.US",
"AVGO_CFD.US",
"MNDI_CFD.UK",
"LW_CFD.US",
"GWRE_CFD.US",
"HYQ_CFD.DE"
]
}Outputs
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Sharp 1-day decline (-13.36%) creating favorable oversold conditions suitable for a mean-reversion bounce.",
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Marginal profit, holding to avoid overtrading and allow further mean reversion.",
"symbol": "AAL_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Currently in drawdown but maintaining position to allow mean reversion thesis to play out.",
"symbol": "ATE_CFD.FR"
},
{
"reason": "Flat PnL, holding to avoid overtrading.",
"symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat PnL but remains a high-conviction candidate due to deep discount to MA200.",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Holding through current drawdown as part of the mean reversion strategy.",
"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Holding to avoid overtrading; awaiting technical bounce.",
"symbol": "MKS_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Holding to avoid overtrading; awaiting technical bounce.",
"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Marginal profit, holding to capture further upside.",
"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": []
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Maintaining current active positions to avoid overtrading, as most are either marginally profitable or within acceptable drawdown limits for a mean-reversion strategy. BYIT_CFD.UK is already held and remains a strong candidate. We are utilizing available portfolio capacity to initiate a new long position in ICG_CFD.UK, which presents a compelling oversold setup following a sharp decline."
}Prompts & responses
#1053 • openrouter • google/gemini-3-pro-preview • 2026-03-09T18:29:14.077725+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 30.54, "change_1d_pct": 21.867517956903427, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.17176911546931, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 28.667486813057195, "volatility_20d_pct": 211.42235702559637, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 567.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.4639927073837784, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.929923575376698, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.6875042216270137, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.84223442053181, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "name": "WICKES GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 247.5, "change_1d_pct": 15.984816533108393, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.647646929530737, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.198455173494668, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.25206447406164, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 497.8, "change_1d_pct": -5.89792060491493, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.793508864321094, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.592137485786795, "volatility_20d_pct": 116.76618625853061, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 204.15, "change_1d_pct": 11.924342105263165, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.759626343727387, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.834440951357639, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.60557991984848, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ADJ_CFD.DE", "name": "ADLER GROUP SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.195, "change_1d_pct": 3.1746031746031855, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.627082934303774, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9421265141319024, "volatility_20d_pct": 301.3189058761534, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "name": "BRITISH LAND CO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 378.8, "change_1d_pct": -9.20421860019175, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.0804912116943788, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.582308896399757, "volatility_20d_pct": 95.07813029977189, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK", "name": "DIPLOMA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 5345.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.170289855072461, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.589302064574288, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.529349698433636, "volatility_20d_pct": 74.68104833921817, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 270.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.784431137724557, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.148878096081223, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.440258238208905, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.52252179896075, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 759.18, "change_1d_pct": 5.222453222453205, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 33.313724414201815, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.832962232591, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.25956465831767, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MAB_CFD.UK", "name": "MITCHELLS & BUTLERS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 292.81, "change_1d_pct": 14.37890625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.595067041457764, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.935906392690597, "volatility_20d_pct": 118.87119977937589, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 305.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.2735042735042805, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.344980756373573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1704016694101371, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.9931345477538, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BME_CFD.UK", "name": "B&M EUROPEAN VALUE RETAIL SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 180.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.5799502899751507, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.510144533683704, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.6906975618860693, "volatility_20d_pct": 107.67302074828436, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.4, "change_1d_pct": -12.674418604651173, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.03446775272175, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.34777426817815, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.82535981934274, 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null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.6, "change_1d_pct": -20.82242990654205, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.68377383888033, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -24.301477407850992, "volatility_20d_pct": 153.59085037557008, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IART_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 9.35, "change_1d_pct": -11.542100283822144, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -27.761016444992148, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -19.993839097770106, "volatility_20d_pct": 117.17185254543496, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": 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"days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LMND_CFD.US", "name": "LEMONADE INC", "sector": "", "last_price": 54.42, "change_1d_pct": 4.916136495083867, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.926310676622793, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -24.46807034101791, "volatility_20d_pct": 160.25503167132723, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "HAMMERSON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 355.4, "change_1d_pct": 14.129736673089276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.516025502913806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.006914897239172, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.54938293511039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HUBS_CFD.US", "name": "HubSpot Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 288.75, "change_1d_pct": 4.5892494929006045, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -33.9039000475892, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.089777946660956, "volatility_20d_pct": 188.7101499987334, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYW6_CFD.DE", "name": "BayWa AG vNa", "sector": "", "last_price": 3.05, "change_1d_pct": 2.348993288590595, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -52.449401486073135, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.283031390575444, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.36934757528029, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FLO_CFD.US", "name": "Flowers Foods Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 8.99, "change_1d_pct": -2.8108108108108043, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -31.712875047474355, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.35796331864574, "volatility_20d_pct": 99.22896034755766, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KEX_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 128.14, "change_1d_pct": -4.265969368696309, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.61959157980484, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.3052187919722753, "volatility_20d_pct": 60.86005653815698, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ASGN_CFD.US", "name": "ASGN Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 38.89, "change_1d_pct": -7.887257224064426, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.113308046494105, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.708447950434625, "volatility_20d_pct": 111.97937943256862, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EWY_CFD.ETF", "name": "ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA ETF", "sector": "", "last_price": 127.27, "change_1d_pct": -3.9544185344502214, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 41.63473662304591, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.840955109585865, "volatility_20d_pct": 121.91964497501063, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ESTC_CFD.US", "name": "ELASTIC NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 53.72, "change_1d_pct": 1.8774890953916268, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -32.121536817938015, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -18.53619922539632, "volatility_20d_pct": 154.0483779680862, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCH_CFD.UK", "name": "COCA-COLA HBC AG-DI", "sector": "", "last_price": 4600.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.0025564550489983, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 19.61493248894206, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 11.853559374787226, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.48660215991708, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "name": "VISTRY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 471.9, "change_1d_pct": -32.11634731572588, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -25.51929928481008, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -27.700654049391527, "volatility_20d_pct": 205.4531272131175, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MAN_CFD.US", "name": "ManpowerGroup Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 28.26, "change_1d_pct": 0.4621400639886364, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.60247716899787, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.13173097777865, "volatility_20d_pct": 120.35561719458762, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "COIN_CFD.US", "name": "Coinbase Global Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 194.87, "change_1d_pct": -6.858808909282088, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -31.948344019332573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.889783227985444, "volatility_20d_pct": 171.4157357323427, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GDDY_CFD.US", "name": "GODADDY INC - CLASS A", "sector": "", "last_price": 93.99, "change_1d_pct": 5.975871011387968, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -31.485679712500826, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.6664636422578925, "volatility_20d_pct": 131.31546255462612, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CPAY_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 314.51, "change_1d_pct": -5.495793269230775, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.4462610427491409, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.3209801250239868, "volatility_20d_pct": 100.48411738664026, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HAIN_CFD.US", "name": "The Hain Celestial Group Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.65, "change_1d_pct": -12.16216216216216, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -53.85489138151356, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -37.3795761078998, "volatility_20d_pct": 207.70195661324973, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VLO_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 216.55, "change_1d_pct": -2.9097919655667104, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 32.34906293746469, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 13.026167997962368, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.22897697728743, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "name": "ICG Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 1719.0, "change_1d_pct": -13.356854838709676, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.041741119434038, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.540628787118589, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.59006184069659, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GNRC_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 205.86, "change_1d_pct": -7.772949240625415, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.889900534755526, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.192867528922946, "volatility_20d_pct": 131.9697382849185, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GRI_CFD.UK", "name": "GRAINGER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 192.4, "change_1d_pct": 0.08322929671245038, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.9312468607917275, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9128310349964197, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.43116862190418, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LYV_CFD.US", "name": "LIVE NATION ENTERTAINMENT IN", "sector": "", "last_price": 164.77, "change_1d_pct": 1.8985776128633391, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 9.981503990559105, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.054890519529614, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.40910137246985, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AT1_CFD.DE", "name": "AROUNDTOWN SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.5220000000000002, "change_1d_pct": -4.686318972033243, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -16.393032310678446, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.870822041553739, "volatility_20d_pct": 104.23636531762892, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JBLU_CFD.US", "name": "JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP", "sector": "", "last_price": 4.17, "change_1d_pct": -18.5546875, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.8536545056398, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -21.06757524134014, "volatility_20d_pct": 140.998424295517, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GO_CFD.US", "name": "GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP", "sector": "", "last_price": 6.43, "change_1d_pct": -28.79291251384275, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -50.86595882063018, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -32.8389387925632, "volatility_20d_pct": 148.9314338876607, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AVGO_CFD.US", "name": "Broadcom Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 343.04, "change_1d_pct": 6.626880517219935, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.7849402852288465, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.6226451896233627, "volatility_20d_pct": 95.65500112425106, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MNDI_CFD.UK", "name": "MONDI PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 859.6, "change_1d_pct": -9.91406413749738, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.846749644126731, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.83690309185164, "volatility_20d_pct": 104.2795966406548, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LW_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 46.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.0025564550489983, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.705037038410552, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.2332855042738178, "volatility_20d_pct": 64.68209450687723, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GWRE_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 165.61, "change_1d_pct": 8.603842874942625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.868161464118195, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.8459752836449885, "volatility_20d_pct": 123.40062900035313, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HYQ_CFD.DE", "name": "HYPOPORT SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 91.137, "change_1d_pct": 4.156571428571421, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -36.74045396847156, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.847847854506409, "volatility_20d_pct": 96.56847157796159, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}Output JSON
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day spike (+21.87%) significantly above MA200 (+10%), high probability of short-term mean reversion pullback.",
"mean_reversion_score": 95
},
{
"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Strong 1-day rally (+15.98%) extending distance from MA200 to +18%, overbought conditions suggest reversion.",
"mean_reversion_score": 90
},
{
"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Significant 1-day gain (+14.13%) with price extended +22% above MA200, prime candidate for mean reversion short.",
"mean_reversion_score": 88
},
{
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Sharp 1-day decline (-13.36%) creating oversold conditions suitable for a reversion bounce.",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Substantial drop (-12.67%) and deep discount to MA200 (-28%), potential for technical bounce from oversold levels.",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Move likely event-driven/binary (e.g., >20% drops like VTY, GO, FUTR)",
"Insufficient volatility or mean reversion signal magnitude",
"Penny stock / Low price risks (e.g., ADJ, HAIN)",
"ETF excluded to focus on single-name equities"
]
}#1054 • openrouter • google/gemini-3-pro-preview • 2026-03-09T18:29:50.497558+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "AAL_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.9884678747940692, "avg_price": 3035.0, "last_price": 3115.0, "unrealized_pnl": 79.07742998352553, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ATE_CFD.FR", "qty": 48.115477145148354, "avg_price": 62.35, "last_price": 59.05, "unrealized_pnl": -158.78107457898977, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.8222013170272815, "avg_price": 1063.0, "last_price": 1063.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 94.6, "last_price": 108.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.5416238437821173, "avg_price": 1945.9999999999998, "last_price": 1842.0, "unrealized_pnl": -160.32887975333983, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1408.0, "last_price": 1234.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 250.0, "last_price": 270.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MKS_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.5452716297786715, "avg_price": 397.6, "last_price": 379.4, "unrealized_pnl": -137.32394366197215, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "qty": 36.67481662591687, "avg_price": 81.8, "last_price": 80.0, "unrealized_pnl": -66.01466992665026, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 32.48511099079589, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 94.79, "unrealized_pnl": 79.26367081754236, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1299.0, "last_price": 927.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 95, "selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day spike (+21.87%) significantly above MA200 (+10%), high probability of short-term mean reversion pullback."}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 90, "selection_reason": "Strong 1-day rally (+15.98%) extending distance from MA200 to +18%, overbought conditions suggest reversion."}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 88, "selection_reason": "Significant 1-day gain (+14.13%) with price extended +22% above MA200, prime candidate for mean reversion short."}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 85, "selection_reason": "Sharp 1-day decline (-13.36%) creating oversold conditions suitable for a reversion bounce."}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 82, "selection_reason": "Substantial drop (-12.67%) and deep discount to MA200 (-28%), potential for technical bounce from oversold levels."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}Output JSON
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Sharp 1-day decline (-13.36%) creating favorable oversold conditions suitable for a mean-reversion bounce.",
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Marginal profit, holding to avoid overtrading and allow further mean reversion.",
"symbol": "AAL_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Currently in drawdown but maintaining position to allow mean reversion thesis to play out.",
"symbol": "ATE_CFD.FR"
},
{
"reason": "Flat PnL, holding to avoid overtrading.",
"symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat PnL but remains a high-conviction candidate due to deep discount to MA200.",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Holding through current drawdown as part of the mean reversion strategy.",
"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Holding to avoid overtrading; awaiting technical bounce.",
"symbol": "MKS_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Holding to avoid overtrading; awaiting technical bounce.",
"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Marginal profit, holding to capture further upside.",
"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": []
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Maintaining current active positions to avoid overtrading, as most are either marginally profitable or within acceptable drawdown limits for a mean-reversion strategy. BYIT_CFD.UK is already held and remains a strong candidate. We are utilizing available portfolio capacity to initiate a new long position in ICG_CFD.UK, which presents a compelling oversold setup following a sharp decline."
}Selection logs
#524 • stage1 • 2026-03-09T18:29:50.494620+00:00
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day spike (+21.87%) significantly above MA200 (+10%), high probability of short-term mean reversion pullback.",
"mean_reversion_score": 95
},
{
"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Strong 1-day rally (+15.98%) extending distance from MA200 to +18%, overbought conditions suggest reversion.",
"mean_reversion_score": 90
},
{
"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Significant 1-day gain (+14.13%) with price extended +22% above MA200, prime candidate for mean reversion short.",
"mean_reversion_score": 88
},
{
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Sharp 1-day decline (-13.36%) creating oversold conditions suitable for a reversion bounce.",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Substantial drop (-12.67%) and deep discount to MA200 (-28%), potential for technical bounce from oversold levels.",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Move likely event-driven/binary (e.g., >20% drops like VTY, GO, FUTR)",
"Insufficient volatility or mean reversion signal magnitude",
"Penny stock / Low price risks (e.g., ADJ, HAIN)",
"ETF excluded to focus on single-name equities"
]
}