Arena run #520

You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).

{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 30.54, "change_1d_pct": 21.867517956903427, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.17176911546931, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 28.667486813057195, "volatility_20d_pct": 211.42235702559637, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "name": "TRAINLINE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 184.5, "change_1d_pct": -10.436893203883491, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.640271123232875, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -21.68611284670343, "volatility_20d_pct": 4790.53876131341, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "name": "WICKES GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 247.5, "change_1d_pct": 15.984816533108393, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.647646929530737, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.198455173494668, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.25206447406164, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "name": "WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 927.0, "change_1d_pct": -35.84775086505191, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -24.62689704221145, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -27.882954735701524, "volatility_20d_pct": 155.34645385957995, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 497.8, "change_1d_pct": -5.89792060491493, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.793508864321094, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.592137485786795, "volatility_20d_pct": 116.76618625853061, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 204.15, "change_1d_pct": 11.924342105263165, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.759626343727387, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.834440951357639, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.60557991984848, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1812.0, "change_1d_pct": -7.219662058371734, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.516182676819012, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.053563926444004, "volatility_20d_pct": 7353.720365167649, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MDM_CFD.FR", "name": "Maisons Du Monde", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.27, "change_1d_pct": -8.36940836940837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -36.15315199823039, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -20.637896341844453, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.34671623562612, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "STAN_CFD.UK", "name": "STANDARD CHARTERED PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1842.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.3541269408880332, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 31.43986196388351, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.292113036344269, "volatility_20d_pct": 75.84142956557304, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SMIN_CFD.UK", "name": "SMITHS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2546.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.5880616072141196, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.133719154897696, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.317618549229563, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.74895841967528, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SGRO_CFD.UK", "name": "SEGRO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 838.6, "change_1d_pct": 14.312977099236646, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 23.337223471135403, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.881685289390623, "volatility_20d_pct": 61.79400737887707, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": 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"snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SAVE_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 59.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.9736842105263053, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -3.788652727159869, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.9944739633739319, "volatility_20d_pct": 59.91371274305013, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SHOP_CFD.US", "name": "SHOPIFY INC - CLASS A", "sector": "", "last_price": 134.49, "change_1d_pct": 14.703624733475484, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -3.6860547805704913, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.1780130794992867, "volatility_20d_pct": 158.063076280182, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WHA_CFD.NL", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 20.6, "change_1d_pct": -4.629629629629628, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.254136770293748, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.799743205314396, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.899431440206634, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK", "name": "DIPLOMA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 5510.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.7312614259597838, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.035071455048428, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.39717925834363843, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.46279741195445, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 313.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.3205128205128194, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8343803356850588, "volatility_20d_pct": 2871.9337920464413, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SVXY_CFD.ETF", "name": "PROSHARES SHORT VIX ST FUTUR", "sector": "", "last_price": 48.15, "change_1d_pct": -3.815421494206961, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.3709741843902057, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.793686082703434, "volatility_20d_pct": 79.78689636404471, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ARG_CFD.FR", "name": "ARGAN", "sector": "", "last_price": 65.9, "change_1d_pct": -1.6417910447761086, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.7025108008791303, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.2830507042607797, "volatility_20d_pct": 45.69256218887273, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AAP_CFD.US", "name": "Advance Auto Parts Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 51.76, "change_1d_pct": 0.7984420642648482, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.6922755503219422, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.908574166790582, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.27640546670942, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BCP_CFD.PT", "name": "Banco Comercial Portugues SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.791, "change_1d_pct": -6.721698113207541, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.260313254091705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.209393170644088, "volatility_20d_pct": 62.534267192414575, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ELIOR_CFD.FR", "name": "Elior Group SCA", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.534, "change_1d_pct": -2.837423312883447, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.872039463908962, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.662961280881243, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.486651821590684, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ODET_CFD.FR", "name": "Compagnie de L'Odet SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 1186.0, "change_1d_pct": -6.022187004754354, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.242558314843423, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.507464695664991, "volatility_20d_pct": 48.67270304500695, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CMBT_CFD.BE", "name": "Euronav", "sector": "", "last_price": 11.34, "change_1d_pct": -7.804878048780495, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 30.107418933841966, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.273054331304074, "volatility_20d_pct": 77.43631274293911, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SLIGR_CFD.NL", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 13.2, "change_1d_pct": -3.9301310043668214, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 9.460859657495323, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.646804055488877, "volatility_20d_pct": 75.72544992772063, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "-35.85% crash, -27.9% from MA50, -24.6% from MA200. Extreme oversold bounce setup with 155% vol.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "-14.0% drop, -25.9% from MA50, -37.0% from MA200. Deeply oversold with manageable 126% volatility.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 94
    },
    {
      "symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "+21.9% spike, +28.7% from MA50. Overbought short candidate with 211% volatility.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 89
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "+16.0% surge, +18.6% from MA200. Extended upward move, 84% vol ideal for reversion.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 84
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "-11.2% drop, -12.9% from MA50, -11.9% from MA200. Oversold with 127% volatility.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 81
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Extreme volatility (>1000%) making risk/reward unfavorable",
    "Insufficient 1-day price movement (<8%) for mean reversion edge",
    "Mixed signals (e.g., down day but above key MA)",
    "Price too close to moving averages, lacking extension",
    "Already in equilibrium zone with low volatility"
  ]
}

You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.

{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.7647058823529411, "avg_price": 1700.0, "last_price": 1693.0, "unrealized_pnl": -12.352941176470587, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 20.15, "last_price": 19.44, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 34.32579479218265, "avg_price": 174.7956612898717, "last_price": 151.91, "unrealized_pnl": -785.5685131195343, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 253.97436099095557, "last_price": 262.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 95, "selection_reason": "-35.85% crash, -27.9% from MA50, -24.6% from MA200. Extreme oversold bounce setup with 155% vol."}, {"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 94, "selection_reason": "-14.0% drop, -25.9% from MA50, -37.0% from MA200. Deeply oversold with manageable 126% volatility."}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 89, "selection_reason": "+21.9% spike, +28.7% from MA50. Overbought short candidate with 211% volatility."}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 84, "selection_reason": "+16.0% surge, +18.6% from MA200. Extended upward move, 84% vol ideal for reversion."}, {"symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 81, "selection_reason": "-11.2% drop, -12.9% from MA50, -11.9% from MA200. Oversold with 127% volatility."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}

{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Score 95 (highest). Extreme oversold -35.85% crash, -27.9% from MA50, -24.6% from MA200. 155% vol bounce setup.",
        "symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Score 94 (second). Deeply oversold -14.0% drop, -25.9% from MA50, -37.0% from MA200. 126% vol manageable.",
        "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Price flat at entry (292.6), no mean reversion signal. Maintaining position.",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Minor unrealized loss (-0.4%) within normal range. No exit signal.",
        "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Down -13.1% creating oversold conditions for mean reversion bounce. Holding despite -785.57 loss.",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position already closed (qty=0). No action required.",
        "symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position already closed (qty=0). No action required.",
        "symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Current 3 positions at 1.2x leverage (well below 3.0x limit). No holdings overbought; PAGE's large loss is actually oversold condition to hold for bounce. Adding top 2 oversold candidates within 2-buy limit. WIZZ and AML show extreme negative deviation with adequate volatility. Resulting 5/10 positions at ~1.8x leverage. Skipping BRBY (score 81) to avoid overtrading—marginal improvement doesn't justify third buy."
}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "-35.85% crash, -27.9% from MA50, -24.6% from MA200. Extreme oversold bounce setup with 155% vol.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "-14.0% drop, -25.9% from MA50, -37.0% from MA200. Deeply oversold with manageable 126% volatility.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 94
    },
    {
      "symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "+21.9% spike, +28.7% from MA50. Overbought short candidate with 211% volatility.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 89
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "+16.0% surge, +18.6% from MA200. Extended upward move, 84% vol ideal for reversion.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 84
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "-11.2% drop, -12.9% from MA50, -11.9% from MA200. Oversold with 127% volatility.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 81
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Extreme volatility (>1000%) making risk/reward unfavorable",
    "Insufficient 1-day price movement (<8%) for mean reversion edge",
    "Mixed signals (e.g., down day but above key MA)",
    "Price too close to moving averages, lacking extension",
    "Already in equilibrium zone with low volatility"
  ]
}