Arena run #512
meanrev-v1 • x-ai • x-ai/grok-4.1-fast • US • success
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-08T18:08:31.007911+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-08T20:55:03.537540+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-08T20:56:03.530476+00:00
duration_ms: 59991
Inputs
{
"as_of": "2026-03-08T18:08:31.007911+00:00",
"dry_run": false,
"selected": [
{
"symbol": "LRCX_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "-7.19% 1d drop, -6.62% below MA50",
"mean_reversion_score": 92
},
{
"symbol": "KLAC_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "-5.65% 1d drop, -4.47% below MA50",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "CF_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "+8.67% 1d gain, +29.74% above MA50",
"mean_reversion_score": 95
},
{
"symbol": "RVTY_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "-9.63% below MA50, recent price stabilization",
"mean_reversion_score": 88
},
{
"symbol": "ORCL_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "+6.93% 1d gain from -6.87% below MA50",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
}
],
"simulate_only": false,
"strict_replay": false,
"universe_symbols": [
"MCG_CFD.UK",
"UTG_CFD.UK",
"TRN_CFD.UK",
"CBG_CFD.UK",
"DOM_CFD.UK",
"DLN_CFD.UK",
"CCL_CFD.UK",
"SGRO_CFD.UK",
"RHIM_CFD.UK",
"LIO_CFD.UK",
"WEIR_CFD.UK",
"BBY_CFD.UK",
"ORCL_CFD.US",
"CIEN_CFD.US",
"SHOP_CFD.US",
"DPLM_CFD.UK",
"IPO_CFD.UK",
"ATG_CFD.UK",
"SVXY_CFD.ETF",
"AAP_CFD.US",
"EZJ_CFD.UK",
"NBIS_CFD.US",
"BRNK_CFD.DE",
"LRCX_CFD.US",
"TBCG_CFD.UK",
"WKP_CFD.UK",
"WDC_CFD.US",
"PZC_CFD.UK",
"MU_CFD.US",
"FUTR_CFD.UK",
"OCDO_CFD.UK",
"VIAV_CFD.US",
"KLAC_CFD.US",
"CRDA_CFD.UK",
"DLR_CFD.US",
"CE_CFD.US",
"IHG_CFD.UK",
"SMHN_CFD.DE",
"CF_CFD.US",
"NRG_CFD.US",
"PLTR_CFD.US",
"MSLH_CFD.UK",
"FLEX_CFD.US",
"RVTY_CFD.US",
"MOS_CFD.US",
"NXT_CFD.UK",
"VST_CFD.US"
]
}Outputs
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Top mean-reversion score 92; oversold with -7.19% 1d drop and -6.62% below MA50; clear improvement over current flat holdings",
"symbol": "LRCX_CFD.US",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "High mean-reversion score 88; significantly -9.63% below MA50 with price stabilization; strong US opportunity post-rotation",
"symbol": "RVTY_CFD.US",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Taking profit on position with +79 unrealized PnL (+2.6% return); rotate into higher conviction US mean-reversion opportunities to align with region focus",
"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Taking profit on position with +13 unrealized PnL (+0.4% return); rotate into stronger oversold US candidates",
"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio at max 10 positions and 3.0x gross leverage with all UK holdings flat/neutral. Rotate 2 profitable positions into 2 top US oversold mean-reversion candidates (LRCX, RVTY) for clear improvement in alignment with US region, high scores, and reversion signals while respecting max 2 buy/sell limits and avoiding overtrading on marginal positions."
}Prompts & responses
#1009 • openrouter • x-ai/grok-4.1-fast • 2026-03-08T20:55:03.583751+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 30.54, "change_1d_pct": 21.867517956903427, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.17176911546931, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 28.667486813057195, "volatility_20d_pct": 211.42235702559637, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 567.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.4639927073837784, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.929923575376698, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.6875042216270137, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.84223442053181, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "name": "TRAINLINE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 206.0, "change_1d_pct": -12.93322062552832, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -22.557701091522887, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.560104316644482, "volatility_20d_pct": 131.09279103846345, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 497.8, "change_1d_pct": -5.89792060491493, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.793508864321094, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.592137485786795, "volatility_20d_pct": 116.76618625853061, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 204.15, "change_1d_pct": 11.924342105263165, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.759626343727387, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.834440951357639, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.60557991984848, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "name": "CARNIVAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2086.12, "change_1d_pct": -1.037950664136622, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.654450538104543, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.475085923893781, "volatility_20d_pct": 151.10848533763712, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SGRO_CFD.UK", "name": "SEGRO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 838.6, "change_1d_pct": 14.312977099236646, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 23.337223471135403, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.881685289390623, "volatility_20d_pct": 61.79400737887707, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "RHI MAGNESITA NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 2960.0, "change_1d_pct": 9.023941068139973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.939755835694466, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.95826987098712, "volatility_20d_pct": 137.0123103901981, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 270.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.784431137724557, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.148878096081223, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.440258238208905, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.52252179896075, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WEIR_CFD.UK", "name": "WEIR GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 3154.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.8031290743155246, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 21.08192574314991, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.300811211629529, "volatility_20d_pct": 121.55994632937954, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 759.18, "change_1d_pct": 5.222453222453205, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 33.313724414201815, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.832962232591, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.25956465831767, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ORCL_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 158.91, "change_1d_pct": 6.9308929412556175, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -27.905979706969188, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.866261569190102, "volatility_20d_pct": 117.12910495892234, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CIEN_CFD.US", "name": "Ciena Corp", "sector": "", "last_price": 303.37, "change_1d_pct": -9.24673926050017, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 81.85731002004589, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.880199530996881, "volatility_20d_pct": 165.28670948773296, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SHOP_CFD.US", "name": "SHOPIFY INC - CLASS A", "sector": "", "last_price": 134.49, "change_1d_pct": 14.703624733475484, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -3.6860547805704913, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.1780130794992867, "volatility_20d_pct": 158.063076280182, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK", "name": "DIPLOMA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 5510.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.7312614259597838, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.035071455048428, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.39717925834363843, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.46279741195445, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "IP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 57.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.873935264054516, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.233643652522883, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.027486732888828, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.82123635439407, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 305.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.2735042735042805, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.344980756373573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1704016694101371, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.9931345477538, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SVXY_CFD.ETF", "name": "PROSHARES SHORT VIX ST FUTUR", "sector": "", "last_price": 48.15, "change_1d_pct": -3.815421494206961, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.3709741843902057, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.793686082703434, "volatility_20d_pct": 79.78689636404471, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AAP_CFD.US", "name": "Advance Auto Parts Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 51.26, "change_1d_pct": 0.09763718023823031, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.394656918786268, "volatility_20d_pct": 4513.79051984217, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "name": "EASYJET PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 416.0, "change_1d_pct": -13.639194519410424, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -16.356648414923292, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.093214644298413, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.36436436183733, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NBIS_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 91.71, "change_1d_pct": 6.072172102706452, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.744084079043592, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.171858074079714, "volatility_20d_pct": 172.0010330664148, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BRNK_CFD.DE", "name": "Branicks Group AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.802, "change_1d_pct": -2.0652173913043415, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.999308429929496, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.6775710925807115, "volatility_20d_pct": 110.42328356478835, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LRCX_CFD.US", "name": "LAM RESEARCH CORP", "sector": "", "last_price": 204.44, "change_1d_pct": -7.190848011621576, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 40.473593348736145, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.6194069391409265, "volatility_20d_pct": 105.97343468200788, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TBCG_CFD.UK", "name": "TBC BANK GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4430.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.917174177831909, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.30388113641399706, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.6895863834994795, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.46178025363125, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WDC_CFD.US", "name": "Western Digital Corporation", "sector": "", "last_price": 250.61, "change_1d_pct": -7.208975118483407, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.854230820725669, "volatility_20d_pct": 7933.743387118827, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "name": "PZ CUSSONS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 81.9, "change_1d_pct": -10.295728368017521, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 8.408114857007853, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.138797929650377, "volatility_20d_pct": 91.01714564624595, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MU_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 379.0, "change_1d_pct": -1.581448492560178, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 76.17651864507707, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.914675709757673, "volatility_20d_pct": 130.69899072639166, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.6, "change_1d_pct": -20.82242990654205, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.68377383888033, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -24.301477407850992, "volatility_20d_pct": 153.59085037557008, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 221.9, "change_1d_pct": -21.312056737588648, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.06664037160078, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.1767959417158487, "volatility_20d_pct": 240.9598068877464, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VIAV_CFD.US", "name": "VIAVI SOLUTIONS INC", "sector": "", "last_price": 28.46, "change_1d_pct": -13.86198547215496, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 85.82663798084928, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 21.557438666028837, "volatility_20d_pct": 130.6419178751259, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KLAC_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 1372.54, "change_1d_pct": -5.653736965472678, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 23.471661043509773, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.469845715466947, "volatility_20d_pct": 90.87777148569057, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "name": "CRODA INTERNATIONAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2911.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.140228192859777, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.730273162831298, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.4574080225663986, "volatility_20d_pct": 116.57501877935547, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLR_CFD.US", "name": "Digital Realty Trust Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 179.83, "change_1d_pct": 1.5759150474469186, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.682438954069547, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.961265301466658, "volatility_20d_pct": 52.337319064888156, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CE_CFD.US", "name": "Celanese Corporation", "sector": "", "last_price": 50.25, "change_1d_pct": 2.0097442143727218, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.547713868024395, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.953589955827285, "volatility_20d_pct": 134.96686174274964, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IHG_CFD.UK", "name": "INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROU", "sector": "", "last_price": 131.85, "change_1d_pct": -9.068965517241379, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -98.19965530465284, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -95.23482638251654, "volatility_20d_pct": 602.6354389421006, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SMHN_CFD.DE", "name": "SUSS MicroTec SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 53.15, "change_1d_pct": -1.846722068328721, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 39.76137487327141, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.924671400009188, "volatility_20d_pct": 90.12421711432019, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CF_CFD.US", "name": "CF Industries Holdings Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 117.93, "change_1d_pct": 8.671212679690399, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 33.55363889216052, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 29.73825721904897, "volatility_20d_pct": 111.75086236107555, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NRG_CFD.US", "name": "NRG ENERGY INC", "sector": "", "last_price": 157.65, "change_1d_pct": -2.7392189524338306, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.2701796488186812, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.3196192746287694, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.11428870761449, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PLTR_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 160.27, "change_1d_pct": 11.515446701920418, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.1025763806270406, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.8041057029863472, "volatility_20d_pct": 121.16705867883715, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "name": "MARSHALLS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 182.32, "change_1d_pct": 0.8407079646017612, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.111863069088763, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.139091576985178, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.4204512350097, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FLEX_CFD.US", "name": "FLEX LTD", "sector": "", "last_price": 61.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.4198860037998657, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.986667882689979, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.175136432613124, "volatility_20d_pct": 122.29516922566144, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RVTY_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 92.97, "change_1d_pct": -0.3536977491961357, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.858399686956836, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.626783988863984, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.52875158751183, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MOS_CFD.US", "name": "The Mosaic Company", "sector": "", "last_price": 26.77, "change_1d_pct": 0.26217228464420206, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -12.913777482827559, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.9485751959563369, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.92488437042849, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NXT_CFD.UK", "name": "NEXT PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 13225.0, "change_1d_pct": -5.603140613847257, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.116518358426768, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.780207539944458, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.99366321435181, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VST_CFD.US", "name": "VISTRA CORP", "sector": "", "last_price": 161.71, "change_1d_pct": 1.2649508422568845, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.083838576285688, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.996948666082198, "volatility_20d_pct": 95.29262230706871, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}Output JSON
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "LRCX_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "-7.19% 1d drop, -6.62% below MA50",
"mean_reversion_score": 92
},
{
"symbol": "KLAC_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "-5.65% 1d drop, -4.47% below MA50",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "CF_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "+8.67% 1d gain, +29.74% above MA50",
"mean_reversion_score": 95
},
{
"symbol": "RVTY_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "-9.63% below MA50, recent price stabilization",
"mean_reversion_score": 88
},
{
"symbol": "ORCL_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "+6.93% 1d gain from -6.87% below MA50",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Non-US symbols",
"Insufficient |distance_from_ma50_pct| <4%",
"|change_1d_pct| <3%",
"Positive distance_from_ma50_pct without strong 1d gain",
"Negative distance_from_ma50_pct without strong 1d drop"
]
}#1010 • openrouter • x-ai/grok-4.1-fast • 2026-03-08T20:55:29.533273+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.6055659620016056, "avg_price": 1868.5, "last_price": 1868.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 39.92, "last_price": 42.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 29.7, "last_price": 28.06, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.312, "last_price": 0.311, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BXP_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 60.835, "last_price": 59.405, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T17:33:48.338981+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 94.6, "last_price": 96.44, "unrealized_pnl": 58.3509513742073, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CAR_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.465, "last_price": 97.54, "unrealized_pnl": 164.65689720434767, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.5416238437821173, "avg_price": 1945.9999999999998, "last_price": 1946.0, "unrealized_pnl": 3.50524679511663e-13, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "COIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 168.575, "last_price": 171.13, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CO_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.171, "last_price": 0.2196, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T10:33:43.857578+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 350.79999999999995, "last_price": 350.055, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DKNG_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 25.185000000000002, "last_price": 25.115000000000002, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T18:20:59.102726+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ESTC_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 58.085, "last_price": 55.28, "unrealized_pnl": -144.87389171042437, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EXPO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 66.815, "last_price": 70.025, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.403751233958539, "avg_price": 405.2, "last_price": 405.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-08T10:05:58.226220+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 50.974999999999994, "last_price": 54.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FICO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1208.505, "last_price": 1405.2800000000002, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FLO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 9.875, "last_price": 10.055, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.24287783679382, "avg_price": 414.2, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "GO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 6.53, "last_price": 6.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T18:20:59.102726+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HAIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.8, "last_price": 0.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1275.0, "last_price": 1342.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HPP_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.59, "last_price": 7.47, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T18:49:26.891792+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1700.0, "last_price": 1719.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JUN3_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 31.51, "last_price": 30.167, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LMND_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 61.5, "last_price": 59.89, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LPX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 86.45, "last_price": 86.15, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "NET_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 176.96, "last_price": 164.32, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 13.824884792626728, "avg_price": 217.0, "last_price": 217.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OKTA_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 70.18, "last_price": 80.05, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 19.74853531696399, "avg_price": 151.91, "last_price": 151.91, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-07T10:14:47.113218+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAYC_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 121.22, "last_price": 119.79, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PROX_CFD.BE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 6.98, "last_price": 7.68, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 417.16, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "qty": 163.0434782608696, "avg_price": 18.4, "last_price": 18.48, "unrealized_pnl": 13.043478260869868, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T18:03:34.247734+00:00"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 34.98, "last_price": 34.98, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "qty": 16.260162601626018, "avg_price": 184.5, "last_price": 184.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 134.3, "last_price": 139.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 32.48511099079589, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 94.79, "unrealized_pnl": 79.26367081754236, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 263.4, "last_price": 240.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 159.76, "last_price": 144.45, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "LRCX_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 92, "selection_reason": "-7.19% 1d drop, -6.62% below MA50"}, {"symbol": "KLAC_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 85, "selection_reason": "-5.65% 1d drop, -4.47% below MA50"}, {"symbol": "CF_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 95, "selection_reason": "+8.67% 1d gain, +29.74% above MA50"}, {"symbol": "RVTY_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 88, "selection_reason": "-9.63% below MA50, recent price stabilization"}, {"symbol": "ORCL_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 82, "selection_reason": "+6.93% 1d gain from -6.87% below MA50"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}Output JSON
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Top mean-reversion score 92; oversold with -7.19% 1d drop and -6.62% below MA50; clear improvement over current flat holdings",
"symbol": "LRCX_CFD.US",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "High mean-reversion score 88; significantly -9.63% below MA50 with price stabilization; strong US opportunity post-rotation",
"symbol": "RVTY_CFD.US",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Stable flat position, no strong sell signal; avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Taking profit on position with +79 unrealized PnL (+2.6% return); rotate into higher conviction US mean-reversion opportunities to align with region focus",
"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Taking profit on position with +13 unrealized PnL (+0.4% return); rotate into stronger oversold US candidates",
"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio at max 10 positions and 3.0x gross leverage with all UK holdings flat/neutral. Rotate 2 profitable positions into 2 top US oversold mean-reversion candidates (LRCX, RVTY) for clear improvement in alignment with US region, high scores, and reversion signals while respecting max 2 buy/sell limits and avoiding overtrading on marginal positions."
}Selection logs
#502 • stage1 • 2026-03-08T20:55:29.530948+00:00
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "LRCX_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "-7.19% 1d drop, -6.62% below MA50",
"mean_reversion_score": 92
},
{
"symbol": "KLAC_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "-5.65% 1d drop, -4.47% below MA50",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "CF_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "+8.67% 1d gain, +29.74% above MA50",
"mean_reversion_score": 95
},
{
"symbol": "RVTY_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "-9.63% below MA50, recent price stabilization",
"mean_reversion_score": 88
},
{
"symbol": "ORCL_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "+6.93% 1d gain from -6.87% below MA50",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Non-US symbols",
"Insufficient |distance_from_ma50_pct| <4%",
"|change_1d_pct| <3%",
"Positive distance_from_ma50_pct without strong 1d gain",
"Negative distance_from_ma50_pct without strong 1d drop"
]
}