Arena run #461

You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).

{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "name": "CARNIVAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2056.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.8353601496725953, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.043361966860509, "volatility_20d_pct": 4989.899809950319, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 722.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.0951403148528382, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.628407265201648, "volatility_20d_pct": 2239.4661443465884, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 313.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.3205128205128194, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8343803356850588, "volatility_20d_pct": 2871.9337920464413, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 307.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.1304631441617632, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.467455549191414, "volatility_20d_pct": 3817.334046309414, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "name": "CRODA INTERNATIONAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2839.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.28099754127151044, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.572261096752058, "volatility_20d_pct": 5232.645582727379, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WELL_CFD.US", "name": "Welltower Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 208.19, "change_1d_pct": 0.08653430123553019, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.99988586399385, "volatility_20d_pct": 2428.1530638821737, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AMG_CFD.NL", "name": "AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL", "sector": "", "last_price": 35.48, "change_1d_pct": -0.05633802816902289, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.413152840025611, "volatility_20d_pct": 7516.604034946565, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK", "name": "ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1905.5, "change_1d_pct": -0.47009663097414833, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.797969750299689, "volatility_20d_pct": 2229.6062835057237, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Significant oversold condition with price 9% below MA50 and -3.8% 1D change.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WELL_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Extended upside deviation (9% above MA50), potential reversion candidate.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Strong pullback trading 6.5% below MA50, attractive for mean reversion.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 85
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Moderate oversold signal, trading 2.8% below MA50.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 75
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Mild pullback 1.6% below MA50, selected to fill quota based on relative deviation.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 70
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Insufficient deviation from moving averages (price too close to MA50)",
    "Low volatility or flat price action offering limited mean reversion potential"
  ]
}

You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.

{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ATE_CFD.FR", "qty": 48.115477145148354, "avg_price": 62.35, "last_price": 60.685, "unrealized_pnl": -80.11226944667197, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 94.6, "last_price": 108.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.1306818181818183, "avg_price": 1408.0, "last_price": 1234.0, "unrealized_pnl": -370.7386363636364, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 250.0, "last_price": 270.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MKS_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.5452716297786715, "avg_price": 397.6, "last_price": 379.4, "unrealized_pnl": -137.32394366197215, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "qty": 36.67481662591687, "avg_price": 81.8, "last_price": 80.0, "unrealized_pnl": -66.01466992665026, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 32.48511099079589, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 94.79, "unrealized_pnl": 79.26367081754236, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.3094688221709005, "avg_price": 1299.0, "last_price": 927.0, "unrealized_pnl": -859.122401847575, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 92, "selection_reason": "Significant oversold condition with price 9% below MA50 and -3.8% 1D change."}, {"symbol": "WELL_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 88, "selection_reason": "Extended upside deviation (9% above MA50), potential reversion candidate."}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 85, "selection_reason": "Strong pullback trading 6.5% below MA50, attractive for mean reversion."}, {"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 75, "selection_reason": "Moderate oversold signal, trading 2.8% below MA50."}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 70, "selection_reason": "Mild pullback 1.6% below MA50, selected to fill quota based on relative deviation."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}

{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Strong mean reversion signal (Score 92), trading 9% below MA50 with significant recent dip.",
        "symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "High mean reversion score (85), trading 6.5% below MA50, offering attractive risk/reward.",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Recently opened position with marginal drawdown; holding for mean reversion thesis to play out.",
        "symbol": "ATE_CFD.FR"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position opened recently (Mar 1); holding as price action develops.",
        "symbol": "MKS_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Recently opened position; holding.",
        "symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position is profitable and stable; holding as sell quota is used for underperformers.",
        "symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Position has suffered significant drawdown (-28%) and is no longer a top-ranked candidate. Closing to stop losses and rotate capital.",
        "symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position is down ~12% and not present in high-conviction candidates list. Rotating into fresh opportunities with better scores.",
        "symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is undergoing a rotation to cut significant losers (WIZZ, HIK) that are dragging down performance and are no longer top-ranked candidates. Capital is being redeployed into fresh high-conviction mean reversion plays (CCL, BYIT) which show deep oversold conditions relative to their moving averages. Profitable and recently opened positions are held to allow their thesis to mature, adhering to the maximum of 2 buys and 2 sells per run."
}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Significant oversold condition with price 9% below MA50 and -3.8% 1D change.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WELL_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Extended upside deviation (9% above MA50), potential reversion candidate.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Strong pullback trading 6.5% below MA50, attractive for mean reversion.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 85
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Moderate oversold signal, trading 2.8% below MA50.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 75
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Mild pullback 1.6% below MA50, selected to fill quota based on relative deviation.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 70
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Insufficient deviation from moving averages (price too close to MA50)",
    "Low volatility or flat price action offering limited mean reversion potential"
  ]
}