Arena run #46

meanrev-v1openaiopenai/gpt-5.2-proUSsuccess
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-02-09T15:39:39.370495+00:00
started_at: 2026-02-09T15:40:09.741299+00:00
finished_at: 2026-02-09T15:41:52.966764+00:00
duration_ms: 103219
Inputs
{
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [
    {
      "symbol": "BFAM_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Deeply below MA200 (-23.0%) and MA50 (-13.6%) with down day (-3.8%): classic oversold mean-reversion setup",
      "mean_reversion_score": 86
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ADP_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Large drawdown vs MA200 (-20.6%) and MA50 (-11.3%) plus sharp 1D drop (-4.25%): near-term snapback candidate",
      "mean_reversion_score": 84
    },
    {
      "symbol": "AJG_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Below MA200 (-18.1%) and MA50 (-5.8%) with additional weakness (-2.83%): pullback for short-horizon reversion",
      "mean_reversion_score": 76
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BRO_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Still well below MA200 (-21.5%) and MA50 (-6.6%) despite 1D bounce (+2.81%): rebound may continue toward averages",
      "mean_reversion_score": 71
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CAR_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Below MA200 (-15.5%) and MA50 (-5.6%); modest 1D bounce (+2.02%) suggests early mean-reversion off depressed levels",
      "mean_reversion_score": 68
    }
  ],
  "universe_symbols": [
    "ATG_CFD.UK",
    "BPT_CFD.UK",
    "BBOX_CFD.UK",
    "BYIT_CFD.UK",
    "ADJ_CFD.DE",
    "BT_CFD.UK",
    "CAR_CFD.US",
    "ASGN_CFD.US",
    "BDX_CFD.US",
    "BFAM_CFD.US",
    "BLND_CFD.UK",
    "AJB_CFD.UK",
    "ATE_CFD.FR",
    "BAVA_CFD.DK",
    "BOY_CFD.UK",
    "BIG_CFD.FR",
    "CHT_CFD.US",
    "CCC_CFD.UK",
    "BRO_CFD.US",
    "CCK_CFD.US",
    "AJG_CFD.US",
    "AMCX_CFD.US",
    "CAR_CFD.PL",
    "BBY_CFD.US",
    "BVB_CFD.DE",
    "CABO_CFD.US",
    "ASY_CFD.FR",
    "BLDR_CFD.US",
    "AA_CFD.US",
    "AST_CFD.PL",
    "AGFB_CFD.BE",
    "CE_CFD.US",
    "ARW_CFD.US",
    "AMBUb_CFD.DK",
    "BAR_CFD.BE",
    "CBRE_CFD.US",
    "BEN_CFD.FR",
    "ALL_CFD.US",
    "BMY_CFD.US",
    "ABBV_CFD.US",
    "BARC_CFD.UK",
    "BRNK_CFD.DE",
    "BERY_CFD.US",
    "BPOST_CFD.BE",
    "ADP_CFD.US",
    "AZN_CFD.SE",
    "AIZ_CFD.US",
    "BCP_CFD.PT",
    "BMO_CFD.US",
    "CAG_CFD.US"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Highest mean-reversion score (86): described as deeply below MA200 (-23.0%) and MA50 (-13.6%) with a down day (-3.8%), fitting the oversold mean-reversion setup.",
        "symbol": "BFAM_CFD.US",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Second-highest mean-reversion score (84): large drawdown vs MA200 (-20.6%) and MA50 (-11.3%) plus sharp 1D drop (-4.25%), consistent with a near-term snapback candidate.",
        "symbol": "ADP_CFD.US",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Recently opened and currently flat; no new information provided that clearly improves outcomes by rotating out. Maintain to avoid overtrading.",
        "symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position is working (unrealized gain) and no adverse catalyst/risk event provided; hold to avoid unnecessary churn.",
        "symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio currently has 2 positions with room under max_positions and ample leverage headroom. To follow the mean-reversion mandate while avoiding overtrading, keep existing holdings (no clear reason to exit) and add at most two new positions. Allocate fixed $3,000 position sizes to the top-scoring oversold candidates (BFAM, ADP) and defer lower-ranked ideas (AJG, BRO, CAR) to stay within the 2-buy limit and reduce churn."
}
Prompts & responses
#82openrouteropenai/gpt-5.2-pro2026-02-09T15:40:09.809749+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "ATG_CFD.UK", "sector": "", "last_price": 292.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.0152284263959421, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -33.84107948739843, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.828037166534672, "volatility_20d_pct": 158.17820784721184, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BPT_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 274.2, "change_1d_pct": -5.912225920461179, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.483684525527371, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.545463557334964, "volatility_20d_pct": 77.69917499624198, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBOX_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 166.0, "change_1d_pct": 15.598885793871876, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.063751209988908, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.510960991667927, "volatility_20d_pct": 57.84262866116462, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 304.8, "change_1d_pct": -9.92907801418439, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -27.18690998374248, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.74157791784395, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.40989379380683, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ADJ_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.186, "change_1d_pct": 3.3333333333333437, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.132822716233882, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.098546042003239, "volatility_20d_pct": 289.85428872043053, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BT_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 202.7, "change_1d_pct": 9.037116729424422, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.5002220805031605, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.900238559965292, "volatility_20d_pct": 80.0133471383762, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CAR_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 119.97, "change_1d_pct": 2.0239816310910763, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.465983461011612, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.580040925546992, "volatility_20d_pct": 75.0434760491137, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ASGN_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 50.97, "change_1d_pct": 2.2877784467188356, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.411605443065312, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.189663207986838, "volatility_20d_pct": 78.90566495955204, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BDX_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 208.67, "change_1d_pct": 1.379779429626371, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.477413629979605, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.4471762673110815, "volatility_20d_pct": 44.713843204767905, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BFAM_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 84.9, "change_1d_pct": -3.8287267784322565, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.001508227229895, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.575119406813807, "volatility_20d_pct": 50.45718157512095, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 419.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.305609284332676, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.579768072243436, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.858069340825067, "volatility_20d_pct": 83.6517211804937, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AJB_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 457.11, "change_1d_pct": 1.670373665480418, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.4204773147297445, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.811061785203455, "volatility_20d_pct": 94.24632385988097, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATE_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 71.95, "change_1d_pct": -1.9086571233810412, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.74261096003998, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.095605015848078, "volatility_20d_pct": 96.83808630212147, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BAVA_CFD.DK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 194.4, "change_1d_pct": -0.4098360655737654, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -3.101837775329841, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.0027536758975497, "volatility_20d_pct": 43.76500028896277, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 759.0, "change_1d_pct": 21.927710843373504, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 26.070718696943686, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 16.477642431132388, "volatility_20d_pct": 101.78150509898363, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.8, "change_1d_pct": -3.6144578313252906, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.624323046313894, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.358026295839021, "volatility_20d_pct": 123.9561977008674, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CHT_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 41.54, "change_1d_pct": -0.09620009620009418, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.015786329990223, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.521102745368518, "volatility_20d_pct": 24.954564057486404, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCC_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 3022.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.1325381047051044, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 20.260987832986533, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.2725451153120995, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.4806768577115, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BRO_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 73.2, "change_1d_pct": 2.8089887640449396, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -21.50714853270911, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.599772368844126, "volatility_20d_pct": 57.5328751418143, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCK_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 110.64, "change_1d_pct": -0.753498385360607, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 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"avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ASY_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 47.3, "change_1d_pct": 2.826086956521734, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 8.999310285548233, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.1248629687947975, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.646137120143834, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BLDR_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 124.0, "change_1d_pct": 5.370496261046909, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 3.215151984311304, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.325076351222684, "volatility_20d_pct": 93.51104275074765, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AA_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 59.22, "change_1d_pct": -1.2835472578763163, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 59.34582645512041, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.364092676927172, "volatility_20d_pct": 113.71168549664476, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AST_CFD.PL", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 48.45, "change_1d_pct": -6.46718146718146, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.8366874229160954, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.3416462075203555, "volatility_20d_pct": 67.79998288343461, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AGFB_CFD.BE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.489, "change_1d_pct": 1.0330578512396604, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -42.05817880206173, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.068740926746961, "volatility_20d_pct": 109.29806006297306, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CE_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 54.63, "change_1d_pct": 17.382896433175766, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.825204225934408, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 22.668115720739745, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.3789154203742, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ARW_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 157.04, "change_1d_pct": 17.4569932685116, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 30.423336010344816, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 32.682425661849045, "volatility_20d_pct": 67.33365334275535, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AMBUb_CFD.DK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 86.7, "change_1d_pct": 4.646952323476183, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.525394061587786, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.515049366380502, "volatility_20d_pct": 147.42827188909723, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BAR_CFD.BE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 11.36, "change_1d_pct": -2.1533161068044815, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -9.490509649697998, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.768208541786088, "volatility_20d_pct": 77.85796537453234, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBRE_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 168.82, "change_1d_pct": 2.024536169698421, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.650190073833834, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.6925622408658256, "volatility_20d_pct": 44.58937189459598, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BEN_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 7.9399999999999995, "change_1d_pct": -0.6879299562226437, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -3.778802736850795, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.904548078145941, "volatility_20d_pct": 43.94943424304621, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ALL_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 207.27, "change_1d_pct": 2.1437019515079925, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.30430236308774, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.4150251005490055, "volatility_20d_pct": 51.843209885624844, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BMY_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 61.29, "change_1d_pct": 8.95999999999999, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 26.071032974085394, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.944480481188814, "volatility_20d_pct": 59.99831583729795, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ABBV_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 220.89, "change_1d_pct": -2.6187012299960455, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.255884875631356, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.3116450382395617, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.26499613206305, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BARC_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 472.2, "change_1d_pct": -3.5440710856909474, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.127754114052635, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8337899539478721, "volatility_20d_pct": 38.329163839573816, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BRNK_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.99, "change_1d_pct": 0.25188916876575096, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.44372030290394, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.4091458393489065, "volatility_20d_pct": 103.1424091021338, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BERY_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 67.88, "change_1d_pct": -2.2887577371527357, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.1607618592304405, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.3899226366799975, "volatility_20d_pct": 69.71811673774233, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BPOST_CFD.BE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.24, "change_1d_pct": -0.22271714922048602, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 8.12428500403053, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.528183412629975, "volatility_20d_pct": 57.61765640562978, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ADP_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 227.04, "change_1d_pct": -4.246973978322311, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.605390888363573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.252526121167827, "volatility_20d_pct": 39.801787220025965, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AZN_CFD.SE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 1703.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.2786202795123325, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.016370307834535, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.11144348642149193, "volatility_20d_pct": 38.270563233973185, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AIZ_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 243.94, "change_1d_pct": 1.0815066506443483, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 14.607418850087406, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.7723729135133777, "volatility_20d_pct": 35.24213160208557, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BCP_CFD.PT", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.924, "change_1d_pct": -1.2820512820512886, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.27397840355707, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.529616724738683, "volatility_20d_pct": 48.570699966330075, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BMO_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 143.19, "change_1d_pct": 2.34436423415052, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 19.3192826177079, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.758880192655027, "volatility_20d_pct": 37.643495462157084, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CAG_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 19.18, "change_1d_pct": 1.1070110701107083, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -0.7341429521500187, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.129806433992972, "volatility_20d_pct": 55.37971406673143, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "BFAM_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Deeply below MA200 (-23.0%) and MA50 (-13.6%) with down day (-3.8%): classic oversold mean-reversion setup",
      "mean_reversion_score": 86
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ADP_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Large drawdown vs MA200 (-20.6%) and MA50 (-11.3%) plus sharp 1D drop (-4.25%): near-term snapback candidate",
      "mean_reversion_score": 84
    },
    {
      "symbol": "AJG_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Below MA200 (-18.1%) and MA50 (-5.8%) with additional weakness (-2.83%): pullback for short-horizon reversion",
      "mean_reversion_score": 76
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BRO_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Still well below MA200 (-21.5%) and MA50 (-6.6%) despite 1D bounce (+2.81%): rebound may continue toward averages",
      "mean_reversion_score": 71
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CAR_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Below MA200 (-15.5%) and MA50 (-5.6%); modest 1D bounce (+2.02%) suggests early mean-reversion off depressed levels",
      "mean_reversion_score": 68
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Non-US listing/symbol for a US-only scan (e.g., *_CFD.UK, *_CFD.DE, *_CFD.FR, *_CFD.DK, *_CFD.BE, *_CFD.PL, *_CFD.PT, *_CFD.SE)",
    "Overbought/extended above MA50 and/or MA200 (not a long mean-reversion entry)",
    "Not sufficiently dislocated from moving averages (weak mean-reversion edge)",
    "Very high 20D volatility and/or large 1D spike suggesting potential event-driven behavior (cannot confirm catalysts from provided data)",
    "Earnings timing unknown (days_to_next_earnings null), so inability to screen for earnings within 5 trading days"
  ]
}
#83openrouteropenai/gpt-5.2-pro2026-02-09T15:41:15.329898+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL", "qty": 77.92207792207792, "avg_price": 38.5, "last_price": 38.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-09T12:49:55.801202+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.256410256410257, "avg_price": 292.5, "last_price": 334.5, "unrealized_pnl": 430.76923076923083, "opened_at": "2026-02-09T12:49:55.801202+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "BFAM_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 86, "selection_reason": "Deeply below MA200 (-23.0%) and MA50 (-13.6%) with down day (-3.8%): classic oversold mean-reversion setup"}, {"symbol": "ADP_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 84, "selection_reason": "Large drawdown vs MA200 (-20.6%) and MA50 (-11.3%) plus sharp 1D drop (-4.25%): near-term snapback candidate"}, {"symbol": "AJG_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 76, "selection_reason": "Below MA200 (-18.1%) and MA50 (-5.8%) with additional weakness (-2.83%): pullback for short-horizon reversion"}, {"symbol": "BRO_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 71, "selection_reason": "Still well below MA200 (-21.5%) and MA50 (-6.6%) despite 1D bounce (+2.81%): rebound may continue toward averages"}, {"symbol": "CAR_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 68, "selection_reason": "Below MA200 (-15.5%) and MA50 (-5.6%); modest 1D bounce (+2.02%) suggests early mean-reversion off depressed levels"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Highest mean-reversion score (86): described as deeply below MA200 (-23.0%) and MA50 (-13.6%) with a down day (-3.8%), fitting the oversold mean-reversion setup.",
        "symbol": "BFAM_CFD.US",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Second-highest mean-reversion score (84): large drawdown vs MA200 (-20.6%) and MA50 (-11.3%) plus sharp 1D drop (-4.25%), consistent with a near-term snapback candidate.",
        "symbol": "ADP_CFD.US",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Recently opened and currently flat; no new information provided that clearly improves outcomes by rotating out. Maintain to avoid overtrading.",
        "symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position is working (unrealized gain) and no adverse catalyst/risk event provided; hold to avoid unnecessary churn.",
        "symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio currently has 2 positions with room under max_positions and ample leverage headroom. To follow the mean-reversion mandate while avoiding overtrading, keep existing holdings (no clear reason to exit) and add at most two new positions. Allocate fixed $3,000 position sizes to the top-scoring oversold candidates (BFAM, ADP) and defer lower-ranked ideas (AJG, BRO, CAR) to stay within the 2-buy limit and reduce churn."
}
Selection logs
#41stage12026-02-09T15:41:15.321713+00:00
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "BFAM_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Deeply below MA200 (-23.0%) and MA50 (-13.6%) with down day (-3.8%): classic oversold mean-reversion setup",
      "mean_reversion_score": 86
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ADP_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Large drawdown vs MA200 (-20.6%) and MA50 (-11.3%) plus sharp 1D drop (-4.25%): near-term snapback candidate",
      "mean_reversion_score": 84
    },
    {
      "symbol": "AJG_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Below MA200 (-18.1%) and MA50 (-5.8%) with additional weakness (-2.83%): pullback for short-horizon reversion",
      "mean_reversion_score": 76
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BRO_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Still well below MA200 (-21.5%) and MA50 (-6.6%) despite 1D bounce (+2.81%): rebound may continue toward averages",
      "mean_reversion_score": 71
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CAR_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Below MA200 (-15.5%) and MA50 (-5.6%); modest 1D bounce (+2.02%) suggests early mean-reversion off depressed levels",
      "mean_reversion_score": 68
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Non-US listing/symbol for a US-only scan (e.g., *_CFD.UK, *_CFD.DE, *_CFD.FR, *_CFD.DK, *_CFD.BE, *_CFD.PL, *_CFD.PT, *_CFD.SE)",
    "Overbought/extended above MA50 and/or MA200 (not a long mean-reversion entry)",
    "Not sufficiently dislocated from moving averages (weak mean-reversion edge)",
    "Very high 20D volatility and/or large 1D spike suggesting potential event-driven behavior (cannot confirm catalysts from provided data)",
    "Earnings timing unknown (days_to_next_earnings null), so inability to screen for earnings within 5 trading days"
  ]
}