Arena run #456

You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).

{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "name": "CARNIVAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2056.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.8353601496725953, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.043361966860509, "volatility_20d_pct": 4989.899809950319, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 722.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.0951403148528382, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.628407265201648, "volatility_20d_pct": 2239.4661443465884, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 313.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.3205128205128194, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8343803356850588, "volatility_20d_pct": 2871.9337920464413, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 307.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.1304631441617632, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.467455549191414, "volatility_20d_pct": 3817.334046309414, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "name": "CRODA INTERNATIONAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2839.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.28099754127151044, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.572261096752058, "volatility_20d_pct": 5232.645582727379, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WELL_CFD.US", "name": "Welltower Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 208.19, "change_1d_pct": 0.08653430123553019, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.99988586399385, "volatility_20d_pct": 2428.1530638821737, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AMG_CFD.NL", "name": "AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL", "sector": "", "last_price": 37.78, "change_1d_pct": 3.450164293537772, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.894553310399079, "volatility_20d_pct": 4355.946933831162, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK", "name": "ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1905.5, "change_1d_pct": -0.47009663097414833, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.797969750299689, "volatility_20d_pct": 2229.6062835057237, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Largest 1d decline (-3.84%) and largest distance below MA50 (-9.04%). Strongest mean reversion signal in universe.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Significant distance below MA50 (-6.47%) with slight positive drift. Good mean reversion setup.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Consistent decline with moderate distance below MA50 (-2.80%). Solid mean reversion candidate.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 71
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Small 1d decline (-1.10%) and slight distance below MA50 (-1.63%). Acceptable mean reversion signal.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 65
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Minor 1d decline (-0.28%) and slight distance below MA50 (-0.57%). Weakest but valid signal.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 58
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "WELL_CFD.US: +9.00% above MA50 - extended, not mean reversion",
    "AMG_CFD.NL: +3.45% gain and +10.89% above MA50 - extended rally, avoid",
    "ATG_CFD.UK: Slight gain and above MA50 - no mean reversion setup"
  ]
}

You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.

{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "AEO_CFD.US", "qty": 134.74062429822592, "avg_price": 22.265, "last_price": 18.765, "unrealized_pnl": -471.5921850437907, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T21:11:27.888829+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AGFB_CFD.BE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.465, "last_price": 0.452, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T21:11:27.888829+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 39.92, "last_price": 42.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.135135135135135, "avg_price": 296.0, "last_price": 296.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T18:49:26.891792+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ATO_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 40.34, "last_price": 39.505, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T10:57:06.928276+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.453, "last_price": 0.296, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T09:32:59.506254+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 20.505809979494188, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 349.265, "last_price": 365.38, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DKNG_CFD.US", "qty": 118.67088607594935, "avg_price": 25.28, "last_price": 25.009999999999998, "unrealized_pnl": -32.041139240506695, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T18:20:59.102726+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DSY_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 17.881, "last_price": 17.133, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DT_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 34.105000000000004, "last_price": 35.864999999999995, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 47.4, "last_price": 48.88, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.24287783679382, "avg_price": 414.2, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "GO_CFD.US", "qty": 459.4180704441041, "avg_price": 6.53, "last_price": 6.48, "unrealized_pnl": -22.970903522205123, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T18:20:59.102726+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1409.0, "last_price": 1244.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "INF_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 795.2, "last_price": 785.85, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T18:21:09.503139+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 250.0, "last_price": 250.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LMND_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 48.96, "last_price": 52.07, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T11:23:36.694156+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LPE_CFD.FR", "qty": 33.9312778519239, "avg_price": 88.414, "last_price": 86.8, "unrealized_pnl": -54.76508245300533, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T18:21:09.503139+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LXS_CFD.DE", "qty": 228.31050228310502, "avg_price": 13.14, "last_price": 13.562, "unrealized_pnl": 96.34703196347004, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T10:33:43.857578+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MAN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 25.68, "last_price": 27.94, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T10:57:06.928276+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MDB_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 252.01, "last_price": 263.69, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 13.824884792626728, "avg_price": 217.0, "last_price": 217.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T09:32:59.506254+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 19.74853531696399, "avg_price": 151.91, "last_price": 151.91, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T10:33:43.857578+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PROX_CFD.BE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 6.98, "last_price": 7.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RCO_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 44.34, "last_price": 43.58, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 417.16, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TCAP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 247.99999999999997, "last_price": 255.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T18:49:26.891792+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 134.3, "last_price": 139.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 94.79, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1087.0, "last_price": 1003.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T10:20:03.276878+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 263.4, "last_price": 257.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 92, "selection_reason": "Largest 1d decline (-3.84%) and largest distance below MA50 (-9.04%). Strongest mean reversion signal in universe."}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 78, "selection_reason": "Significant distance below MA50 (-6.47%) with slight positive drift. Good mean reversion setup."}, {"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 71, "selection_reason": "Consistent decline with moderate distance below MA50 (-2.80%). Solid mean reversion candidate."}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 65, "selection_reason": "Small 1d decline (-1.10%) and slight distance below MA50 (-1.63%). Acceptable mean reversion signal."}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 58, "selection_reason": "Minor 1d decline (-0.28%) and slight distance below MA50 (-0.57%). Weakest but valid signal."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}

{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Top mean reversion candidate (score 92). Largest 1d decline (-3.84%) and largest distance below MA50 (-9.04%). Strongest signal in universe justifies $3000 position.",
        "symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Third-highest mean reversion score (71). Consistent decline with moderate distance below MA50 (-2.80%). Solid mean reversion setup at $3000.",
        "symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Already held position (qty 20.5). Candidate score 78 confirms mean reversion thesis - maintain for potential upside.",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Only winning position (+3.21%, +$96.35). Hold to capture continued mean reversion gains.",
        "symbol": "LXS_CFD.DE"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Marginal loss (-1.07%). Hold - position size manageable and may revert.",
        "symbol": "DKNG_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Small unrealized loss (-0.77%). Hold for potential mean reversion.",
        "symbol": "GO_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position. Hold - small position size suitable for portfolio.",
        "symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position. Hold - maintains sector diversification.",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position. Hold - UK exposure maintained.",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position. Hold - UK exposure maintained.",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Largest unrealized loss (-21.2%, -$471.59). Mean reversal unlikely to outperform new candidate with stronger signal (CCL score 92). Releasing capital for better opportunity.",
        "symbol": "AEO_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Significant unrealized loss (-1.82%, -$54.77). Clearing position to maintain max 10 positions and allow new mean reversion entry.",
        "symbol": "LPE_CFD.FR"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio rebalancing to improve mean reversion quality. Selling 2 worst performers (AEO: -21.2%, LPE: -1.82%) frees $4,671 for new positions. Buying top 2 candidates: CCL (score 92, strongest signal) and ABF (score 71, solid setup), both $3000 fixed size. Portfolio maintains 10 positions with gross leverage 0.67 (well under 3.0 max). BYIT retained as existing position confirmed by candidate score 78. LXS retained as only winner (+3.21%). All sells within 2-action limit; no overtrading."
}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Largest 1d decline (-3.84%) and largest distance below MA50 (-9.04%). Strongest mean reversion signal in universe.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Significant distance below MA50 (-6.47%) with slight positive drift. Good mean reversion setup.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Consistent decline with moderate distance below MA50 (-2.80%). Solid mean reversion candidate.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 71
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Small 1d decline (-1.10%) and slight distance below MA50 (-1.63%). Acceptable mean reversion signal.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 65
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Minor 1d decline (-0.28%) and slight distance below MA50 (-0.57%). Weakest but valid signal.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 58
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "WELL_CFD.US: +9.00% above MA50 - extended, not mean reversion",
    "AMG_CFD.NL: +3.45% gain and +10.89% above MA50 - extended rally, avoid",
    "ATG_CFD.UK: Slight gain and above MA50 - no mean reversion setup"
  ]
}