Arena run #455

You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).

{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "name": "CARNIVAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2056.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.8353601496725953, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.043361966860509, "volatility_20d_pct": 4989.899809950319, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 722.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.0951403148528382, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.628407265201648, "volatility_20d_pct": 2239.4661443465884, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 313.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.3205128205128194, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8343803356850588, "volatility_20d_pct": 2871.9337920464413, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 307.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.1304631441617632, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.467455549191414, "volatility_20d_pct": 3817.334046309414, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "name": "CRODA INTERNATIONAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2839.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.28099754127151044, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.572261096752058, "volatility_20d_pct": 5232.645582727379, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WELL_CFD.US", "name": "Welltower Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 208.19, "change_1d_pct": 0.08653430123553019, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.99988586399385, "volatility_20d_pct": 2428.1530638821737, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AMG_CFD.NL", "name": "AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL", "sector": "", "last_price": 37.78, "change_1d_pct": 3.450164293537772, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.894553310399079, "volatility_20d_pct": 4355.946933831162, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK", "name": "ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1905.5, "change_1d_pct": -0.47009663097414833, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.797969750299689, "volatility_20d_pct": 2229.6062835057237, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Strong 1-day decline (-3.8%) and significant distance below 50-day MA (-9.0%).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Trading well below 50-day MA (-6.5%) suggesting oversold state.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 75
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Negative daily performance (-0.5%) combined with position below 50-day MA (-2.8%).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 60
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Daily decline of -1.1% while trading below 50-day MA (-1.6%).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 55
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Slight negative daily move and trading below 50-day MA.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 50
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Stocks trading significantly above 50-day MA (momentum plays)",
    "Positive daily price action without oversold indicators"
  ]
}

You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.

{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "qty": 6622.516556291391, "avg_price": 0.453, "last_price": 0.311, "unrealized_pnl": -940.3973509933776, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T18:07:22.382508+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 349.425, "last_price": 374.67, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 47.4, "last_price": 52.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.488766849725412, "avg_price": 400.6, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 101.84722915626534, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.3529411764705883, "avg_price": 1275.0, "last_price": 1234.0, "unrealized_pnl": -96.47058823529412, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 13.824884792626728, "avg_price": 217.0, "last_price": 217.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 14.577259475218659, "avg_price": 205.8, "last_price": 151.91, "unrealized_pnl": -785.5685131195337, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 442.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "qty": 85.76329331046313, "avg_price": 34.98, "last_price": 34.98, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 134.3, "last_price": 139.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE", "qty": 405.51500405515003, "avg_price": 7.398000000000001, "last_price": 7.232, "unrealized_pnl": -67.31549067315505, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1.73, "last_price": 1.83, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T18:07:22.382508+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 18.778167250876315, "avg_price": 159.76, "last_price": 165.75, "unrealized_pnl": 112.4812218327493, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T17:33:48.338981+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 90, "selection_reason": "Strong 1-day decline (-3.8%) and significant distance below 50-day MA (-9.0%)."}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 75, "selection_reason": "Trading well below 50-day MA (-6.5%) suggesting oversold state."}, {"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 60, "selection_reason": "Negative daily performance (-0.5%) combined with position below 50-day MA (-2.8%)."}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 55, "selection_reason": "Daily decline of -1.1% while trading below 50-day MA (-1.6%)."}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 50, "selection_reason": "Slight negative daily move and trading below 50-day MA."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}

{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "High conviction mean reversion signal (Score 90) with strong 1-day decline (-3.8%) and significant distance below 50-day MA (-9.0%).",
        "symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Significant unrealized loss (-31%), holding for potential mean reversion recovery rather than selling at the bottom.",
        "symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Existing position held flat. Candidate score (75) is strong but diversification preferred over doubling down.",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Modest unrealized gain (+3.4%), holding for further upside.",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Recent entry with minor loss (-7.5%), holding for reversion.",
        "symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat performance, holding.",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Significant unrealized loss (-26%), holding for potential mean reversion recovery.",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat performance, holding.",
        "symbol": "THG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Recent entry with minor loss (-2.2%), holding for reversion.",
        "symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Modest unrealized gain (+3.7%), holding for further upside.",
        "symbol": "ZS_CFD.US"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio currently holds 9 positions. We have capacity for one additional position (Max 10) and available leverage (Current Gross ~$27k vs Max $30k). CCL_CFD.UK offers the strongest mean reversion setup among candidates with a score of 90, driven by a sharp oversold move. We allocate the fixed $3,000 size to CCL. Existing positions with large drawdowns (BIG, PAGE) are retained to avoid realizing losses at potentially cyclical lows, anticipating a reversion. No other candidates justify selling current holdings or exceeding the buy limit."
}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Strong 1-day decline (-3.8%) and significant distance below 50-day MA (-9.0%).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Trading well below 50-day MA (-6.5%) suggesting oversold state.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 75
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Negative daily performance (-0.5%) combined with position below 50-day MA (-2.8%).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 60
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Daily decline of -1.1% while trading below 50-day MA (-1.6%).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 55
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Slight negative daily move and trading below 50-day MA.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 50
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Stocks trading significantly above 50-day MA (momentum plays)",
    "Positive daily price action without oversold indicators"
  ]
}