Arena run #409

meanrev-v1x-aix-ai/grok-4.1-fastEUsuccess
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-04T11:55:12.978371+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-04T11:56:25.155875+00:00
duration_ms: 72176
Inputs
{
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [
    {
      "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme -29% 1d drop, -31.6% from MA50, -41.1% from MA200, high vol 109%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 98
    },
    "symbolMCG_CFD.UK",
    "mean_reversion_score92",
    "selection_reasonExtreme +23.9% 1d gain, +32.0% from MA50, +12.7% from MA200, vol 211% high oversold potential post-spike WEIR_CFD.UK 95 +19.2% 1d +18.2% MA50 +37.1% MA200 vol 88% BYIT_CFD.UK 87 -12.7% 1d -14.3% MA50 -28.0% MA200 vol 88% HLMA_CFD.UK 85 +15.3% 1d +12.1% MA50 +23.6% MA200 vol 83%"
  ],
  "universe_symbols": [
    "VTY_CFD.UK",
    "WEIR_CFD.UK",
    "UTG_CFD.UK",
    "CCL_CFD.UK",
    "CBG_CFD.UK",
    "KGF_CFD.UK",
    "ADS_CFD.DE",
    "AML_CFD.UK",
    "COFB_CFD.BE",
    "IMI_CFD.UK",
    "AT1_CFD.DE",
    "CNA_CFD.UK",
    "STNE_CFD.US",
    "HLMA_CFD.UK",
    "SHC_CFD.UK",
    "IPR_CFD.PT",
    "IPO_CFD.UK",
    "ATG_CFD.UK",
    "MDB_CFD.US",
    "EXPN_CFD.UK",
    "CCC_CFD.UK",
    "BYIT_CFD.UK",
    "WKP_CFD.UK",
    "CCH_CFD.UK",
    "MCG_CFD.UK",
    "EZJ_CFD.UK",
    "LSEG_CFD.UK",
    "SBGI_CFD.US",
    "MKS_CFD.UK",
    "BOSS_CFD.DE",
    "ALK_CFD.US",
    "HMSO_CFD.UK",
    "BT_CFD.UK",
    "MSLH_CFD.UK",
    "PAGE_CFD.UK",
    "NBIS_CFD.US",
    "COIN_CFD.US",
    "NXT_CFD.UK",
    "SDG_CFD.FR",
    "SNOW_CFD.US",
    "GOOS_CFD.US",
    "PSN_CFD.UK",
    "ARG_CFD.FR",
    "WLK_CFD.US",
    "UHAL_CFD.US",
    "IVZ_CFD.US",
    "JLL_CFD.US"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Top mean reversion score 98: extreme oversold (-29% 1d, -31.6% MA50, -41.1% MA200, high vol), strong buy signal",
        "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Stable PnL, no sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Oversold candidate (score 87), stable, hold for mean reversion",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Marginal profit, no strong sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Stable PnL, no sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Marginal profit, no strong sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "OKTA_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Profit realised but marginal vs rules, no strong sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "PROX_CFD.BE"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Stable PnL, no sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Stable PnL, no sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "THG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Marginal profit, no strong sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Buy top oversold candidate AML_CFD.UK for clear mean reversion opportunity. Hold all 9 current positions (flat/marginal profits, no overbought signals or risk events). No sells to avoid overtrading. Moves to 10 positions, gross ~30k exposure on ~10.5k equity (leverage <3), complies with max 2 buys/2 sells."
}
Prompts & responses
#803openrouterx-ai/grok-4.1-fast2026-03-04T11:55:13.016420+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "name": "VISTRY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 720.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.752170008979342, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 13.334264143447182, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.187026761436968, "volatility_20d_pct": 108.27100991710547, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WEIR_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 3564.0, "change_1d_pct": 19.19732441471571, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 37.136107856394496, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 18.20579522816075, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.71696843792506, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 567.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.4639927073837784, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.929923575376698, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.6875042216270137, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.84223442053181, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "name": "CARNIVAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2373.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.912687585266021, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 26.41215845244669, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.616441127141865, "volatility_20d_pct": 141.1300212149729, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 497.8, "change_1d_pct": -5.89792060491493, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.793508864321094, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.592137485786795, "volatility_20d_pct": 116.76618625853061, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK", "name": "KINGFISHER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 367.3, "change_1d_pct": 9.282951502529002, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 25.836325072262547, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 13.171108060075287, "volatility_20d_pct": 79.7523939314479, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ADS_CFD.DE", "name": "ADIDAS AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 146.92, "change_1d_pct": -8.170982480483524, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -16.771731120801313, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.281487748849712, "volatility_20d_pct": 43.26107369371941, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "name": "ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL", "sector": "", "last_price": 41.0, "change_1d_pct": -29.31034482758621, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -41.07802778099134, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -31.55967161996588, "volatility_20d_pct": 109.21218170050702, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "COFB_CFD.BE", "name": "Cofinimmo SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 91.25, "change_1d_pct": 1.9553072625698276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.988790183575812, "volatility_20d_pct": 1542.002222512536, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IMI_CFD.UK", "name": "IMI PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2828.0, "change_1d_pct": 8.26952526799387, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 29.012317870749314, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 11.107007677698544, "volatility_20d_pct": 78.40398881701634, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AT1_CFD.DE", "name": "AROUNDTOWN SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.692, "change_1d_pct": -12.654120700843595, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.79535287529243, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.9063183028081974, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.53482010392509, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CNA_CFD.UK", "name": "CENTRICA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 197.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.3376623376623273, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 16.907910392757188, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.119974753711467, "volatility_20d_pct": 93.26050913466813, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "STNE_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 14.17, "change_1d_pct": -13.544844417327639, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.990785002229941, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.379983808945559, "volatility_20d_pct": 147.29515351881847, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HLMA_CFD.UK", "name": "HALMA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4104.0, "change_1d_pct": 15.345699831365934, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 23.591861367515033, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.09684468140897, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.81135582460098, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SHC_CFD.UK", "name": "SHAFTESBURY CAPITAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 147.2, "change_1d_pct": 2.364394993045882, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.210906053879838, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.8182841489510233, "volatility_20d_pct": 60.09537427211038, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPR_CFD.PT", "name": "Impresa SGPS SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.185, "change_1d_pct": -6.565656565656575, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 20.69809166530745, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.833248498422073, "volatility_20d_pct": 242.82012575943392, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "IP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 57.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.873935264054516, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.233643652522883, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.027486732888828, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.82123635439407, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 305.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.2735042735042805, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.344980756373573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1704016694101371, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.9931345477538, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MDB_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 259.43, "change_1d_pct": -21.353866674750655, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.190615164707822, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -32.01683816847183, "volatility_20d_pct": 215.6796730862848, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EXPN_CFD.UK", "name": "EXPERIAN PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2745.0, "change_1d_pct": 8.670263936120115, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -22.49882643600887, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.076504979785325, "volatility_20d_pct": 106.5159364083547, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCC_CFD.UK", "name": "COMPUTACENTER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3060.0, "change_1d_pct": -6.877662811929397, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 20.590448668980944, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.284743621327226, "volatility_20d_pct": 97.14510937756963, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.4, "change_1d_pct": -12.674418604651173, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.03446775272175, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.34777426817815, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.82535981934274, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCH_CFD.UK", "name": "COCA-COLA HBC AG-DI", "sector": "", "last_price": 4630.0, "change_1d_pct": -1.906779661016944, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 20.510662239405143, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 13.022760782322539, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.1715610930273, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 31.26, "change_1d_pct": 23.851030110935035, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.691085471826336, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 32.023515896881435, "volatility_20d_pct": 210.87769115491298, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "name": "EASYJET PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 447.6, "change_1d_pct": -8.184615384615379, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.294983403269242, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.255338756298226, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.55788992228685, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LSEG_CFD.UK", "name": "LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 8674.0, "change_1d_pct": 9.547865622631967, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.437301817623421, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.746546875007839, "volatility_20d_pct": 108.29860079620886, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SBGI_CFD.US", "name": "SINCLAIR INC", "sector": "", "last_price": 15.6, "change_1d_pct": -7.637655417406752, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.428768184557111, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.412079674448499, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.1881533648708, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MKS_CFD.UK", "name": "MARKS & SPENCER GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 397.6, "change_1d_pct": 9.411117226197053, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.111525306334212, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.600812560994456, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.27498035906231, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOSS_CFD.DE", "name": "Hugo Boss AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 35.35, "change_1d_pct": -4.896421845574384, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -9.266740510963, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.5236396194216018, "volatility_20d_pct": 46.5427844592804, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ALK_CFD.US", "name": "Alaska Air Group Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 50.71, "change_1d_pct": -8.200579290369303, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -0.8325877688310057, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.930276718580116, "volatility_20d_pct": 111.56413460180359, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "HAMMERSON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 355.4, "change_1d_pct": 14.129736673089276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.516025502913806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.006914897239172, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.54938293511039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BT_CFD.UK", "name": "BT GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 211.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.3806957373836433, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.169909673727373, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.32993702388365, "volatility_20d_pct": 91.1818600610736, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "name": "MARSHALLS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 182.32, "change_1d_pct": 0.8407079646017612, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.111863069088763, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.139091576985178, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.4204512350097, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "name": "PAGEGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 209.6, "change_1d_pct": -10.960067969413767, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -19.313052268665963, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.41066281665177, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.6882126676479, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NBIS_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 88.3, "change_1d_pct": -15.356595092024538, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.744945871281983, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.342212614844822, "volatility_20d_pct": 170.58581697884307, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "COIN_CFD.US", "name": "Coinbase Global Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 185.67, "change_1d_pct": 3.132811198133645, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -35.418984425530006, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.915898216172748, "volatility_20d_pct": 155.61606228657058, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NXT_CFD.UK", "name": "NEXT PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 13225.0, "change_1d_pct": -5.603140613847257, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.116518358426768, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.780207539944458, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.99366321435181, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SDG_CFD.FR", "name": "Synergie SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 28.5, "change_1d_pct": -3.0612244897959107, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.192308693042142, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.830852702202715, "volatility_20d_pct": 77.87629221334478, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SNOW_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 168.16, "change_1d_pct": -1.4706744008906036, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -22.961439946710716, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.014479276693182, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.69851569407896, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GOOS_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 11.94, "change_1d_pct": -3.6319612590799077, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.134289285630057, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.341768539218961, "volatility_20d_pct": 129.54896197262082, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK", "name": "PERSIMMON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1398.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.7640602612433396, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.380997224407462, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.5773200509943011, "volatility_20d_pct": 95.523625160791, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ARG_CFD.FR", "name": "ARGAN", "sector": "", "last_price": 66.0, "change_1d_pct": -6.6108218247679424, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.8922312752617456, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.0027521234909686, "volatility_20d_pct": 45.27217456851028, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WLK_CFD.US", "name": "WESTLAKE CHEMICAL CORP", "sector": "", "last_price": 104.3, "change_1d_pct": 4.143784323514721, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 31.068351579857435, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 19.30553426688293, "volatility_20d_pct": 108.2661494522795, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UHAL_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 51.92, "change_1d_pct": 3.591380686352763, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -8.283540234149012, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.469446562949662, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.7198981925985, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IVZ_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 25.71, "change_1d_pct": -3.9237668161435035, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 14.96077427489979, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.63821743949614, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.56488833349962, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JLL_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 314.8, "change_1d_pct": -1.4031571034828216, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.188624459274572, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.114319832842929, "volatility_20d_pct": 109.52287995519126, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme -29% 1d drop, -31.6% from MA50, -41.1% from MA200, high vol 109%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 98
    },
    "symbolMCG_CFD.UK",
    "mean_reversion_score92",
    "selection_reasonExtreme +23.9% 1d gain, +32.0% from MA50, +12.7% from MA200, vol 211% high oversold potential post-spike WEIR_CFD.UK 95 +19.2% 1d +18.2% MA50 +37.1% MA200 vol 88% BYIT_CFD.UK 87 -12.7% 1d -14.3% MA50 -28.0% MA200 vol 88% HLMA_CFD.UK 85 +15.3% 1d +12.1% MA50 +23.6% MA200 vol 83%"
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Non-EU symbols",
    "Insufficient extreme 1d change or MA deviation",
    "Moderate volatility",
    "Unknown earnings/sector/liquidity"
  ]
}
#804openrouterx-ai/grok-4.1-fast2026-03-04T11:55:34.083302+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 29.7, "last_price": 28.06, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "qty": 6622.516556291391, "avg_price": 0.453, "last_price": 0.453, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BXP_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 60.835, "last_price": 59.405, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T17:33:48.338981+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 94.6, "last_price": 96.44, "unrealized_pnl": 58.3509513742073, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CAR_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.465, "last_price": 97.54, "unrealized_pnl": 164.65689720434767, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "COIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 168.575, "last_price": 171.13, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 350.79999999999995, "last_price": 350.055, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ESTC_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 58.085, "last_price": 55.28, "unrealized_pnl": -144.87389171042437, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EXPO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 66.815, "last_price": 70.025, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 50.974999999999994, "last_price": 54.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FICO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1208.505, "last_price": 1405.2800000000002, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FLO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 9.875, "last_price": 10.055, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.488766849725412, "avg_price": 400.6, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 101.84722915626534, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HAIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.8, "last_price": 0.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1275.0, "last_price": 1342.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1700.0, "last_price": 1719.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JUN3_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 31.51, "last_price": 30.167, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LMND_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 61.5, "last_price": 59.89, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LPX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 86.45, "last_price": 86.15, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "NET_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 176.96, "last_price": 164.32, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 13.824884792626728, "avg_price": 217.0, "last_price": 217.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OKTA_CFD.US", "qty": 42.747221430607006, "avg_price": 70.18, "last_price": 72.28, "unrealized_pnl": 89.76916500427447, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAYC_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 121.22, "last_price": 119.79, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PROX_CFD.BE", "qty": 429.79942693409737, "avg_price": 6.98, "last_price": 7.55, "unrealized_pnl": 244.98567335243524, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 417.16, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "qty": 163.0434782608696, "avg_price": 18.4, "last_price": 18.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T18:03:34.247734+00:00"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "qty": 85.76329331046313, "avg_price": 34.98, "last_price": 34.98, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 196.2, "last_price": 196.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 134.3, "last_price": 139.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 32.48511099079589, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 94.79, "unrealized_pnl": 79.26367081754236, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 263.4, "last_price": 240.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 159.76, "last_price": 144.45, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 98, "selection_reason": "Extreme -29% 1d drop, -31.6% from MA50, -41.1% from MA200, high vol 109%"}, "symbolMCG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score92", "selection_reasonExtreme +23.9% 1d gain, +32.0% from MA50, +12.7% from MA200, vol 211% high oversold potential post-spike WEIR_CFD.UK 95 +19.2% 1d +18.2% MA50 +37.1% MA200 vol 88% BYIT_CFD.UK 87 -12.7% 1d -14.3% MA50 -28.0% MA200 vol 88% HLMA_CFD.UK 85 +15.3% 1d +12.1% MA50 +23.6% MA200 vol 83%"], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Top mean reversion score 98: extreme oversold (-29% 1d, -31.6% MA50, -41.1% MA200, high vol), strong buy signal",
        "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Stable PnL, no sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Oversold candidate (score 87), stable, hold for mean reversion",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Marginal profit, no strong sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Stable PnL, no sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Marginal profit, no strong sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "OKTA_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Profit realised but marginal vs rules, no strong sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "PROX_CFD.BE"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Stable PnL, no sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Stable PnL, no sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "THG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Marginal profit, no strong sell signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Buy top oversold candidate AML_CFD.UK for clear mean reversion opportunity. Hold all 9 current positions (flat/marginal profits, no overbought signals or risk events). No sells to avoid overtrading. Moves to 10 positions, gross ~30k exposure on ~10.5k equity (leverage <3), complies with max 2 buys/2 sells."
}
Selection logs
#399stage12026-03-04T11:55:34.080936+00:00
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme -29% 1d drop, -31.6% from MA50, -41.1% from MA200, high vol 109%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 98
    },
    "symbolMCG_CFD.UK",
    "mean_reversion_score92",
    "selection_reasonExtreme +23.9% 1d gain, +32.0% from MA50, +12.7% from MA200, vol 211% high oversold potential post-spike WEIR_CFD.UK 95 +19.2% 1d +18.2% MA50 +37.1% MA200 vol 88% BYIT_CFD.UK 87 -12.7% 1d -14.3% MA50 -28.0% MA200 vol 88% HLMA_CFD.UK 85 +15.3% 1d +12.1% MA50 +23.6% MA200 vol 83%"
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Non-EU symbols",
    "Insufficient extreme 1d change or MA deviation",
    "Moderate volatility",
    "Unknown earnings/sector/liquidity"
  ]
}