Arena run #402

You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).

{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "name": "TRAINLINE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 206.0, "change_1d_pct": -12.93322062552832, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -22.557701091522887, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.560104316644482, "volatility_20d_pct": 131.09279103846345, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VCT_CFD.UK", "name": "VICTREX PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 695.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.42979942693409656, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -3.2784163489814833, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.2434457730395465, "volatility_20d_pct": 118.65826330943554, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "name": "SYNTHOMER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 20.2, "change_1d_pct": -32.666666666666664, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -73.62254515017194, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -61.002505878582646, "volatility_20d_pct": 362.0742865046256, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "name": "CRODA INTERNATIONAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3121.0, "change_1d_pct": 13.367235742826011, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.093851216079353, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.83246554776207, "volatility_20d_pct": 109.18178749390499, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 2960.0, "change_1d_pct": 9.023941068139973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.939755835694466, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.95826987098712, "volatility_20d_pct": 137.0123103901981, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "name": "BRITISH LAND CO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 400.4, "change_1d_pct": -3.4715525554484206, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.86656372352572, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.2590673575129543, "volatility_20d_pct": 90.47340329611018, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 759.18, "change_1d_pct": 5.222453222453205, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 33.313724414201815, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.832962232591, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.25956465831767, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "name": "Bigben Interactive", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.473, "change_1d_pct": -40.65244667503137, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -57.481044006670004, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -45.84258856396987, "volatility_20d_pct": 245.7660340614924, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DCC_CFD.UK", "name": "DCC PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 5080.0, "change_1d_pct": 16.08775137111518, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.470412938362834, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.336155457586478, "volatility_20d_pct": 94.82279659179201, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IMI_CFD.UK", "name": "IMI PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2828.0, "change_1d_pct": 8.26952526799387, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 29.012317870749314, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 11.107007677698544, "volatility_20d_pct": 78.40398881701634, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RKT_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 6416.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.773275595422207, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 9.203621104249947, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.3697812890090422, "volatility_20d_pct": 53.84159623395557, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CNA_CFD.UK", "name": "CENTRICA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 189.9, "change_1d_pct": -3.6040609137055757, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.694478089261874, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.223265003704624, "volatility_20d_pct": 4354.2492559168495, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 316.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.770491803278686, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.606496790507684, "volatility_20d_pct": 3869.8570945036245, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CSGP_CFD.US", "name": "CoStar Group Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 44.99, "change_1d_pct": -0.08882966910948031, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -27.832637164507577, "volatility_20d_pct": 6517.0730512753025, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BURBERRY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1174.5, "change_1d_pct": -0.550381033022862, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.69118971687319, "volatility_20d_pct": 4100.463229875871, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "COTY_CFD.US", "name": "Coty Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.65, "change_1d_pct": -0.7490636704119868, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.425644415069403, "volatility_20d_pct": 7661.46272234243, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Sharp 1D selloff (-12.9%) with price well below MA50 (-12.6%) and MA200 (-22.6%) -> classic oversold setup for 2-10d bounce.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CSGP_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Deeply below MA50 (-27.8%) despite flat 1D move; favors snap-back/mean reversion if selling pressure fades.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 74
    },
    {
      "symbol": "COTY_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Below MA50 (-12.4%) with mild negative 1D move; potential short-term reversion toward MA50.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 66
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Moderately below MA50 (-4.7%) with small 1D decline; candidate for modest mean-reversion bounce.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 54
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Near MA50 (-0.26%) after a down day (-3.47%); mild pullback that can revert over the next few sessions.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 52
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Large gap-like 1D moves (e.g., -30% to -40% or +10% to +16%) suggesting potential event-driven/binary behavior (unknown catalysts).",
    "Strong positive momentum and extended above MA50/MA200 (not aligned with long mean-reversion entries).",
    "Missing key technical context (e.g., MA200 null) and/or extreme volatility outliers indicating low reliability/liquidity (data quality concern).",
    "Region mismatch vs requested US focus (universe contains multiple non-US symbols; only two US symbols available).",
    "Earnings proximity cannot be verified (days_to_next_earnings unknown), so higher event-risk names deprioritized."
  ]
}

You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.

{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "AMH_CFD.US", "qty": 101.09519797809605, "avg_price": 29.674999999999997, "last_price": 29.869999999999997, "unrealized_pnl": 19.71356360572876, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL", "qty": 104.8951048951049, "avg_price": 28.6, "last_price": 29.38, "unrealized_pnl": 81.81818181818156, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "qty": 31.804929764113435, "avg_price": 94.325, "last_price": 108.8, "unrealized_pnl": 460.3763583355418, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 350.45000000000005, "last_price": 382.96500000000003, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DSY_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 17.881, "last_price": 17.45, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ETSY_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 44.13, "last_price": 50.769999999999996, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.857142857142857, "avg_price": 437.5, "last_price": 437.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T10:20:03.276878+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 50.974999999999994, "last_price": 54.185, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FLO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 9.875, "last_price": 9.885000000000002, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.488766849725412, "avg_price": 400.6, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 101.84722915626534, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MLCO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 5.51, "last_price": 6.06, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAYC_CFD.US", "qty": 24.748391354561953, "avg_price": 121.22, "last_price": 129.8, "unrealized_pnl": 212.34119782214188, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 424.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TMV_CFD.DE", "qty": 627.4837900020916, "avg_price": 4.781, "last_price": 4.4879999999999995, "unrealized_pnl": -183.85275047061293, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 92.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 11.389521640091116, "avg_price": 263.4, "last_price": 240.8, "unrealized_pnl": -257.4031890660588, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 18.778167250876315, "avg_price": 159.76, "last_price": 155.11, "unrealized_pnl": -87.31847771657444, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 78, "selection_reason": "Sharp 1D selloff (-12.9%) with price well below MA50 (-12.6%) and MA200 (-22.6%) -> classic oversold setup for 2-10d bounce."}, {"symbol": "CSGP_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 74, "selection_reason": "Deeply below MA50 (-27.8%) despite flat 1D move; favors snap-back/mean reversion if selling pressure fades."}, {"symbol": "COTY_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 66, "selection_reason": "Below MA50 (-12.4%) with mild negative 1D move; potential short-term reversion toward MA50."}, {"symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 54, "selection_reason": "Moderately below MA50 (-4.7%) with small 1D decline; candidate for modest mean-reversion bounce."}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 52, "selection_reason": "Near MA50 (-0.26%) after a down day (-3.47%); mild pullback that can revert over the next few sessions."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}

{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "High mean-reversion score (74) with price described as deeply below MA50 (-27.8%), indicating a clearer oversold snap-back candidate; funded by trimming a position that has already mean-reverted strongly.",
        "symbol": "CSGP_CFD.US",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Small gain and no stronger, clearly superior replacement signal provided; avoid overtrading.",
        "symbol": "AMH_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position is working with a modest gain; no clear reason to rotate out given constraints.",
        "symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat since entry; without a clearly better swap signal, maintain to avoid churn.",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Recently opened and currently flat; hold to allow the setup time to play out.",
        "symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Moderate unrealized gain; hold rather than churn absent a specific exit trigger in the rules.",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Moderate unrealized gain; retain as no higher-conviction improvement is indicated versus current holding.",
        "symbol": "PAYC_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Currently down; mean-reversion framework typically allows time for bounce unless a risk event is flagged (none provided).",
        "symbol": "TMV_CFD.DE"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Currently down; keep exposure to potential reversion and avoid selling into weakness without a stated risk trigger.",
        "symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Currently down; hold for potential mean reversion rather than realize a loss without a stronger alternative requiring the slot.",
        "symbol": "ZS_CFD.US"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Position has moved strongly in our favor (large unrealized gain vs entry), suggesting much of the short-term mean-reversion bounce may already be realized; trimming to recycle risk budget and keep gross exposure closer to the 3.0x cap while funding a higher-scoring oversold setup.",
        "symbol": "CABO_CFD.US"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "With 10 active positions already, we limit changes to a single rotation to avoid overtrading and to respect max positions/leverage. We harvest a strong winner (CABO) to reduce exposure near the gross leverage cap and redeploy into a higher-scoring, more clearly oversold mean-reversion opportunity (CSGP). All other holdings are maintained due to lack of a clearly superior improvement signal and to avoid churn."
}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Sharp 1D selloff (-12.9%) with price well below MA50 (-12.6%) and MA200 (-22.6%) -> classic oversold setup for 2-10d bounce.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CSGP_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Deeply below MA50 (-27.8%) despite flat 1D move; favors snap-back/mean reversion if selling pressure fades.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 74
    },
    {
      "symbol": "COTY_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Below MA50 (-12.4%) with mild negative 1D move; potential short-term reversion toward MA50.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 66
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Moderately below MA50 (-4.7%) with small 1D decline; candidate for modest mean-reversion bounce.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 54
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Near MA50 (-0.26%) after a down day (-3.47%); mild pullback that can revert over the next few sessions.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 52
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Large gap-like 1D moves (e.g., -30% to -40% or +10% to +16%) suggesting potential event-driven/binary behavior (unknown catalysts).",
    "Strong positive momentum and extended above MA50/MA200 (not aligned with long mean-reversion entries).",
    "Missing key technical context (e.g., MA200 null) and/or extreme volatility outliers indicating low reliability/liquidity (data quality concern).",
    "Region mismatch vs requested US focus (universe contains multiple non-US symbols; only two US symbols available).",
    "Earnings proximity cannot be verified (days_to_next_earnings unknown), so higher event-risk names deprioritized."
  ]
}