Arena run #392

meanrev-v1openaiopenai/gpt-5.2-proEUsuccess
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-03T10:20:03.276878+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-03T13:05:38.354052+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-03T13:07:52.034073+00:00
duration_ms: 133678
Inputs
{
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [
    {
      "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Sharp pullback (-12.67% 1d) while trading well below MA50 (-14.35%) and MA200 (-28.03%)—setup consistent with short-term snapback risk/reversion.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 82
    },
    {
      "symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down day (-8.18% 1d) with price below MA50 (-8.26%) and MA200 (-10.29%), suggesting oversold pressure relative to key trend levels.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 76
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Notable selloff (-7.35% 1d) with price below MA50 (-9.05%) and below MA200 (-7.02%), indicating potential mean-reversion bounce setup.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 72
    },
    {
      "symbol": "MNDI_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Decline (-5.57% 1d) with price below MA50 (-5.22%) and materially below MA200 (-15.16%), fitting a short-horizon reversion profile.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 68
    },
    {
      "symbol": "NWG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Pullback (-4.13% 1d) with price below MA50 (-8.37%) while near MA200 (+3.01%), suggesting a dip vs intermediate trend that can mean-revert over 2–10 days.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 62
    }
  ],
  "universe_symbols": [
    "CCL_CFD.UK",
    "DLN_CFD.UK",
    "CRDA_CFD.UK",
    "AGFB_CFD.BE",
    "RHIM_CFD.UK",
    "WIZZ_CFD.UK",
    "VSVS_CFD.UK",
    "ANTO_CFD.UK",
    "PSN_CFD.UK",
    "BIG_CFD.FR",
    "LAND_CFD.UK",
    "DOCS_CFD.UK",
    "ADJ_CFD.DE",
    "SSE_CFD.UK",
    "BYW6_CFD.DE",
    "BTRW_CFD.UK",
    "TBCG_CFD.UK",
    "DPLM_CFD.UK",
    "IPR_CFD.PT",
    "MNDI_CFD.UK",
    "AAL_CFD.UK",
    "IPO_CFD.UK",
    "ATG_CFD.UK",
    "DEQ_CFD.DE",
    "BLND_CFD.UK",
    "ALTR_CFD.PT",
    "SPX_CFD.UK",
    "BPOST_CFD.BE",
    "CCC_CFD.UK",
    "BYIT_CFD.UK",
    "HAIN_CFD.US",
    "WKP_CFD.UK",
    "RENE_CFD.PT",
    "BRBY_CFD.UK",
    "NWG_CFD.UK",
    "BT_CFD.UK",
    "JMAT_CFD.UK",
    "MCG_CFD.UK",
    "EZJ_CFD.UK",
    "FUTR_CFD.UK",
    "OCDO_CFD.UK",
    "NBA_CFD.PT",
    "SEM_CFD.PT",
    "PEUG_CFD.FR",
    "MKS_CFD.UK",
    "VOD_CFD.UK",
    "BRNL_CFD.NL",
    "AMCX_CFD.US"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "High mean-reversion score (76) with a sharp down day and trading below MA50/MA200 per candidate notes—fits the short-horizon oversold snapback profile. Uses the one remaining slot (bringing open positions to the 10-position cap).",
        "symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Position is slightly positive and there is no new counter-signal provided; avoid overtrading and let the mean-reversion horizon play out.",
        "symbol": "AMH_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Up since entry; no new risk/fundamental catalyst provided to justify trimming. Maintain exposure to avoid churn.",
        "symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Already held and is the top mean-reversion candidate (score 82); keep the existing position rather than adding to avoid unnecessary turnover.",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Strong unrealized gain; without an explicit exit trigger in the provided rules/data, prefer HOLD to avoid overtrading.",
        "symbol": "CABO_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive P&L and no opposing signal provided; continue to hold within the strategy’s mean-reversion window.",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive P&L; no new information suggests an exit. HOLD to avoid churn.",
        "symbol": "PAYC_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Largest drawdown among holdings, but no risk-event/news data provided; mean-reversion framework typically allows time for rebound—avoid forced selling without a catalyst.",
        "symbol": "TMV_CFD.DE"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Moderate unrealized loss; absent new negative catalyst or better replacement (given position limit), maintain and avoid reactive selling.",
        "symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Unrealized loss but no explicit risk trigger or replacement need; hold to allow for potential reversion rather than crystallizing losses.",
        "symbol": "ZS_CFD.US"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Current open positions are 9, below the 10-position cap, so we add one new high-scoring mean-reversion setup (EZJ) to fully deploy the allowed breadth without forcing any sells. No sells are taken because there is no provided news/fundamental/risk event to justify exits, and the strategy explicitly prioritizes avoiding overtrading/churn when improvements versus current holdings are not clearly superior."
}
Prompts & responses
#771openrouteropenai/gpt-5.2-pro2026-03-03T13:05:38.400574+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "name": "CARNIVAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2373.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.912687585266021, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 26.41215845244669, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.616441127141865, "volatility_20d_pct": 141.1300212149729, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "name": "CRODA INTERNATIONAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2985.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.522947640594698, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.683214914464862, "volatility_20d_pct": 5384.213547557704, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AGFB_CFD.BE", "name": "Agfa-Gevaert", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.499, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -38.433066008636644, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.5176791308947335, "volatility_20d_pct": 97.65260374778039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 2960.0, "change_1d_pct": 9.023941068139973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.939755835694466, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.95826987098712, "volatility_20d_pct": 137.0123103901981, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "name": "WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1149.0, "change_1d_pct": -18.888010391370646, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.64087670109288, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.400729027804601, "volatility_20d_pct": 135.2554859780018, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VSVS_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 463.8, "change_1d_pct": -4.292199752373094, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 19.308105594104475, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.7537934561287845, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.45261273284595, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ANTO_CFD.UK", "name": "ANTOFAGASTA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3977.0, "change_1d_pct": -9.366453965360078, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 51.282975299811405, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.657799949761124, "volatility_20d_pct": 126.3558600560107, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 1534.5, "change_1d_pct": 7.382785164450656, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 21.219431937066368, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.190705106538676, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.88935643255697, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "name": "Bigben Interactive", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.473, "change_1d_pct": -40.65244667503137, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -57.481044006670004, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -45.84258856396987, "volatility_20d_pct": 245.7660340614924, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LAND_CFD.UK", "name": "LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 657.5, "change_1d_pct": 5.537720706260041, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.252603386758752, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.122919204415387, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.29024668360088, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOCS_CFD.UK", "name": "DR. MARTENS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 68.8, "change_1d_pct": 4.305639781685877, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -8.701612186211548, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.18978279463164, "volatility_20d_pct": 118.95688421046393, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ADJ_CFD.DE", "name": "ADLER GROUP SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.196, "change_1d_pct": 0.512820512820511, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.766559638482573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.0830324909747224, "volatility_20d_pct": 312.9377704458121, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SSE_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 2689.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.0493358633776104, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 34.94705047099984, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.00356678669805, "volatility_20d_pct": 66.32836276369055, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYW6_CFD.DE", "name": "BayWa AG vNa", "sector": "", "last_price": 3.014, "change_1d_pct": -1.147917349950811, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -53.76577317310377, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.0503101524266745, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.11947236494477, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "name": "Barratt Redrow Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 354.2, "change_1d_pct": -2.9854834291974885, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.862023266087469, "volatility_20d_pct": 3052.368361552524, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TBCG_CFD.UK", "name": "TBC BANK GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4565.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.3862433862433816, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 3.3402757700341734, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.87187615482803, "volatility_20d_pct": 4088.601562011032, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DPLM_CFD.UK", "name": "DIPLOMA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 5510.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.1634446397188043, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.192082445680152, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.4099861831485585, "volatility_20d_pct": 3044.185733195895, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPR_CFD.PT", "name": "Impresa SGPS SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.185, "change_1d_pct": -6.565656565656575, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 20.69809166530745, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.833248498422073, "volatility_20d_pct": 242.82012575943392, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MNDI_CFD.UK", "name": "MONDI PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 848.0, "change_1d_pct": -5.56792873051225, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.155066123018745, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.218143572158285, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.3226783777398, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AAL_CFD.UK", "name": "ANGLO AMERICAN PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3586.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.055803571428580945, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 11.748904636364198, "volatility_20d_pct": 4209.946938281094, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "IP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 57.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.873935264054516, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.233643652522883, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.027486732888828, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.82123635439407, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 305.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.2735042735042805, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.344980756373573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1704016694101371, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.9931345477538, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DEQ_CFD.DE", "name": "DEUTSCHE EUROSHOP AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 19.808, "change_1d_pct": -4.997601918465233, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 3.448131791917164, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.530127917299695, "volatility_20d_pct": 42.79343895376628, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "name": "BRITISH LAND CO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 412.2, "change_1d_pct": -1.1036468330134386, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.038592258830414, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.655801721389861, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.77968057978609, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ALTR_CFD.PT", "name": "Altri SGPS SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 4.83, "change_1d_pct": -1.4285714285714346, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.8862216376192045, "volatility_20d_pct": 1821.396714857455, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SPX_CFD.UK", "name": "SPIRAX-SARCO ENGINEERING PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 7835.0, "change_1d_pct": 12.814974802015833, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 19.23181021911573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 11.9178241198038, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.89480545967234, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BPOST_CFD.BE", "name": "Bpost", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.08, "change_1d_pct": -3.0754892823858238, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.13491736752337, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.4928176385434773, "volatility_20d_pct": 67.64823561685624, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCC_CFD.UK", "name": "COMPUTACENTER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3020.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.206434316353877, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.0345668760055946, "volatility_20d_pct": 3440.491186199078, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.4, "change_1d_pct": -12.674418604651173, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.03446775272175, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.34777426817815, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.82535981934274, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HAIN_CFD.US", "name": "The Hain Celestial Group Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.7795, "change_1d_pct": -2.4893670252689515, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -27.991294290665756, "volatility_20d_pct": 9597.135346751676, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RENE_CFD.PT", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 3.695, "change_1d_pct": -3.6505867014341664, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 17.49685588589289, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.640884296805094, "volatility_20d_pct": 61.13086159799632, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BURBERRY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1109.43, "change_1d_pct": -7.3544885177452946, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.022066199772603, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.049889713471448, "volatility_20d_pct": 123.40054273085089, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NWG_CFD.UK", "name": "NATWEST GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 585.0, "change_1d_pct": -4.129793510324486, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 3.0087808382537773, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.368106462163071, "volatility_20d_pct": 80.19452753030116, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BT_CFD.UK", "name": "BT GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 216.2, "change_1d_pct": 8.137848246886392, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 13.016588922021931, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.284390080749198, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.91179246153717, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JMAT_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 1977.0, "change_1d_pct": -14.341421143847487, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.731640700159547, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.172193441451359, "volatility_20d_pct": 122.90715427463878, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 31.26, "change_1d_pct": 23.851030110935035, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.691085471826336, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 32.023515896881435, "volatility_20d_pct": 210.87769115491298, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "name": "EASYJET PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 447.6, "change_1d_pct": -8.184615384615379, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.294983403269242, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.255338756298226, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.55788992228685, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.6, "change_1d_pct": -20.82242990654205, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.68377383888033, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -24.301477407850992, "volatility_20d_pct": 153.59085037557008, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 221.9, "change_1d_pct": -21.312056737588648, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.06664037160078, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.1767959417158487, "volatility_20d_pct": 240.9598068877464, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NBA_CFD.PT", "name": "Novabase SGPS SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 9.15, "change_1d_pct": -0.5434782608695565, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 8.026485969248466, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.16366612111291534, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.22890566719641, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SEM_CFD.PT", "name": "Semapa-Sociedade de Investimento e Gestao SGPS SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 23.05, "change_1d_pct": -1.2847965738758016, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 26.42353309622749, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.0092199701024205, "volatility_20d_pct": 133.5876276405891, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PEUG_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 68.5, "change_1d_pct": -4.596100278551529, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -8.47335629338204, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.160513102836608, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.15498965263245, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MKS_CFD.UK", "name": "MARKS & SPENCER GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 397.6, "change_1d_pct": 9.411117226197053, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.111525306334212, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.600812560994456, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.27498035906231, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VOD_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 109.75, "change_1d_pct": -6.754460492778247, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 21.01865175849198, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.7767996943385276, "volatility_20d_pct": 66.24568290132939, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BRNL_CFD.NL", "name": "Brunel International", "sector": "", "last_price": 6.7, "change_1d_pct": -2.1897810218978075, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -24.075663700518145, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.335563760830482, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.74461900252103, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AMCX_CFD.US", "name": "AMC NETWORKS INC-A", "sector": "", "last_price": 7.98, "change_1d_pct": 6.258322237017322, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.677168169719127, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.002261850908307, "volatility_20d_pct": 105.99913672875043, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Sharp pullback (-12.67% 1d) while trading well below MA50 (-14.35%) and MA200 (-28.03%)—setup consistent with short-term snapback risk/reversion.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 82
    },
    {
      "symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down day (-8.18% 1d) with price below MA50 (-8.26%) and MA200 (-10.29%), suggesting oversold pressure relative to key trend levels.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 76
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Notable selloff (-7.35% 1d) with price below MA50 (-9.05%) and below MA200 (-7.02%), indicating potential mean-reversion bounce setup.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 72
    },
    {
      "symbol": "MNDI_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Decline (-5.57% 1d) with price below MA50 (-5.22%) and materially below MA200 (-15.16%), fitting a short-horizon reversion profile.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 68
    },
    {
      "symbol": "NWG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Pullback (-4.13% 1d) with price below MA50 (-8.37%) while near MA200 (+3.01%), suggesting a dip vs intermediate trend that can mean-revert over 2–10 days.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 62
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Non-EU/region mismatch symbols present in the universe (e.g., *_CFD.US) excluded",
    "Extreme 1-day moves or very high reported 20d volatility suggesting potentially binary/event-driven behavior (higher gap risk)",
    "Large positive 1-day spikes and/or extended above MA50/MA200 (not a mean-reversion-long setup)",
    "Very low-priced names/penny-like pricing where liquidity/behavior can be less stable (if liquidity unknown)",
    "Insufficient/unknown earnings-date data—candidates with the most extreme moves deprioritized given the inability to confirm near-term catalysts"
  ]
}
#772openrouteropenai/gpt-5.2-pro2026-03-03T13:06:35.366222+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "AMH_CFD.US", "qty": 101.09519797809605, "avg_price": 29.674999999999997, "last_price": 29.799999999999997, "unrealized_pnl": 12.636899747262007, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL", "qty": 104.8951048951049, "avg_price": 28.6, "last_price": 29.04, "unrealized_pnl": 46.15384615384591, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "qty": 31.804929764113435, "avg_price": 94.325, "last_price": 101.495, "unrealized_pnl": 228.04134640869339, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 350.45000000000005, "last_price": 382.96500000000003, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DSY_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 17.881, "last_price": 17.45, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ETSY_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 44.13, "last_price": 50.769999999999996, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 50.974999999999994, "last_price": 54.185, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FLO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 9.875, "last_price": 9.885000000000002, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.488766849725412, "avg_price": 400.6, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 101.84722915626534, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MLCO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 5.51, "last_price": 6.06, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAYC_CFD.US", "qty": 24.748391354561953, "avg_price": 121.22, "last_price": 128.62, "unrealized_pnl": 183.13809602375858, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 424.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TMV_CFD.DE", "qty": 627.4837900020916, "avg_price": 4.781, "last_price": 4.394, "unrealized_pnl": -242.8362267308092, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 92.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 11.389521640091116, "avg_price": 263.4, "last_price": 257.0, "unrealized_pnl": -72.89293849658289, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 18.778167250876315, "avg_price": 159.76, "last_price": 148.57, "unrealized_pnl": -210.12769153730594, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 82, "selection_reason": "Sharp pullback (-12.67% 1d) while trading well below MA50 (-14.35%) and MA200 (-28.03%)—setup consistent with short-term snapback risk/reversion."}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 76, "selection_reason": "Down day (-8.18% 1d) with price below MA50 (-8.26%) and MA200 (-10.29%), suggesting oversold pressure relative to key trend levels."}, {"symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 72, "selection_reason": "Notable selloff (-7.35% 1d) with price below MA50 (-9.05%) and below MA200 (-7.02%), indicating potential mean-reversion bounce setup."}, {"symbol": "MNDI_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 68, "selection_reason": "Decline (-5.57% 1d) with price below MA50 (-5.22%) and materially below MA200 (-15.16%), fitting a short-horizon reversion profile."}, {"symbol": "NWG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 62, "selection_reason": "Pullback (-4.13% 1d) with price below MA50 (-8.37%) while near MA200 (+3.01%), suggesting a dip vs intermediate trend that can mean-revert over 2–10 days."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "High mean-reversion score (76) with a sharp down day and trading below MA50/MA200 per candidate notes—fits the short-horizon oversold snapback profile. Uses the one remaining slot (bringing open positions to the 10-position cap).",
        "symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Position is slightly positive and there is no new counter-signal provided; avoid overtrading and let the mean-reversion horizon play out.",
        "symbol": "AMH_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Up since entry; no new risk/fundamental catalyst provided to justify trimming. Maintain exposure to avoid churn.",
        "symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Already held and is the top mean-reversion candidate (score 82); keep the existing position rather than adding to avoid unnecessary turnover.",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Strong unrealized gain; without an explicit exit trigger in the provided rules/data, prefer HOLD to avoid overtrading.",
        "symbol": "CABO_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive P&L and no opposing signal provided; continue to hold within the strategy’s mean-reversion window.",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive P&L; no new information suggests an exit. HOLD to avoid churn.",
        "symbol": "PAYC_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Largest drawdown among holdings, but no risk-event/news data provided; mean-reversion framework typically allows time for rebound—avoid forced selling without a catalyst.",
        "symbol": "TMV_CFD.DE"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Moderate unrealized loss; absent new negative catalyst or better replacement (given position limit), maintain and avoid reactive selling.",
        "symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Unrealized loss but no explicit risk trigger or replacement need; hold to allow for potential reversion rather than crystallizing losses.",
        "symbol": "ZS_CFD.US"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Current open positions are 9, below the 10-position cap, so we add one new high-scoring mean-reversion setup (EZJ) to fully deploy the allowed breadth without forcing any sells. No sells are taken because there is no provided news/fundamental/risk event to justify exits, and the strategy explicitly prioritizes avoiding overtrading/churn when improvements versus current holdings are not clearly superior."
}
Selection logs
#384stage12026-03-03T13:06:35.364065+00:00
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Sharp pullback (-12.67% 1d) while trading well below MA50 (-14.35%) and MA200 (-28.03%)—setup consistent with short-term snapback risk/reversion.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 82
    },
    {
      "symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down day (-8.18% 1d) with price below MA50 (-8.26%) and MA200 (-10.29%), suggesting oversold pressure relative to key trend levels.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 76
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Notable selloff (-7.35% 1d) with price below MA50 (-9.05%) and below MA200 (-7.02%), indicating potential mean-reversion bounce setup.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 72
    },
    {
      "symbol": "MNDI_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Decline (-5.57% 1d) with price below MA50 (-5.22%) and materially below MA200 (-15.16%), fitting a short-horizon reversion profile.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 68
    },
    {
      "symbol": "NWG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Pullback (-4.13% 1d) with price below MA50 (-8.37%) while near MA200 (+3.01%), suggesting a dip vs intermediate trend that can mean-revert over 2–10 days.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 62
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Non-EU/region mismatch symbols present in the universe (e.g., *_CFD.US) excluded",
    "Extreme 1-day moves or very high reported 20d volatility suggesting potentially binary/event-driven behavior (higher gap risk)",
    "Large positive 1-day spikes and/or extended above MA50/MA200 (not a mean-reversion-long setup)",
    "Very low-priced names/penny-like pricing where liquidity/behavior can be less stable (if liquidity unknown)",
    "Insufficient/unknown earnings-date data—candidates with the most extreme moves deprioritized given the inability to confirm near-term catalysts"
  ]
}