Arena run #378

meanrev-v1x-aix-ai/grok-4.1-fastUSfailed
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-02T18:21:09.503139+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-02T20:12:04.233824+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-02T20:14:29.845971+00:00
duration_ms: 145610
error: result expired
Inputs
{
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [
    {
      "symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR",
      "selection_reason": "-41% 1d change and -46% below MA50",
      "mean_reversion_score": 100
    },
    "{\"symbol\":\"MCG_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":98,\"selection_reason\":\"+24% 1d change and +32% above MA50\"}",
    "{\"symbol\":\"AML_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":92,\"selection_reason\":\"-24% 1d change and -28% below MA50\"}",
    "{\"symbol\":\"FUTR_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":90,\"selection_reason\":\"-21% 1d change and -24% below MA50\"}",
    "{\"symbol\":\"TBCG_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":88,\"selection_reason\":\"+23% 1d change and +17% above MA50\"}"
  ],
  "universe_symbols": [
    "DLN_CFD.UK",
    "CRDA_CFD.UK",
    "RHIM_CFD.UK",
    "INF_CFD.UK",
    "PSN_CFD.UK",
    "BIG_CFD.FR",
    "BTRW_CFD.UK",
    "S92_CFD.DE",
    "TCAP_CFD.UK",
    "ATG_CFD.UK",
    "BLND_CFD.UK",
    "NA9_CFD.DE",
    "IMI_CFD.UK",
    "BYIT_CFD.UK",
    "TBCG_CFD.UK",
    "WKP_CFD.UK",
    "BT_CFD.UK",
    "MCG_CFD.UK",
    "ELV_CFD.US",
    "FUTR_CFD.UK",
    "MKS_CFD.UK",
    "LPE_CFD.FR",
    "ZS_CFD.US",
    "LSS_CFD.FR",
    "BYW6_CFD.DE",
    "MSLH_CFD.UK",
    "MRCY_CFD.US",
    "ULVR_CFD.UK",
    "AML_CFD.UK",
    "TMV_CFD.DE",
    "RHK_CFD.DE",
    "ETL_CFD.FR",
    "ICG_CFD.UK",
    "FII_CFD.FR",
    "REC_CFD.BE",
    "THG_CFD.UK",
    "MOS_CFD.US"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Top mean-reversion score (100): -41% 1d change, -46% below MA50; strong oversold signal",
        "symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "High mean-reversion score (92): -24% 1d change, -28% below MA50; strong oversold signal",
        "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Neutral PnL, no strong sell signal; hold for potential mean reversion",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+101), recent oversold signal but already positioned; hold",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+49), stable; hold",
        "symbol": "JUN3_CFD.DE"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Neutral PnL, stable; hold",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+162), performing well; hold",
        "symbol": "OKTA_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+42), stable; hold",
        "symbol": "PROX_CFD.BE"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Neutral PnL, stable; hold",
        "symbol": "THG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+89), performing well; hold",
        "symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Negative unrealized PnL (-72) and underperforming; free slot for better mean-reversion opportunity",
        "symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Negative unrealized PnL (-72) and underperforming; free slot for better mean-reversion opportunity",
        "symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Replace two losing positions (HIK, WPP) with top mean-reversion buy candidates (BIG, AML) to improve portfolio quality while maintaining 10 positions and adhering to max 2 buys/2 sells. Holds are stable or profitable without strong sell signals. Gross leverage at limits but managed via fixed sizing."
}
Prompts & responses
#743openrouterx-ai/grok-4.1-fast2026-03-02T20:12:04.266807+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "name": "CRODA INTERNATIONAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3121.0, "change_1d_pct": 13.367235742826011, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.093851216079353, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.83246554776207, "volatility_20d_pct": 109.18178749390499, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 2960.0, "change_1d_pct": 9.023941068139973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.939755835694466, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.95826987098712, "volatility_20d_pct": 137.0123103901981, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "INF_CFD.UK", "name": "INFORMA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 841.2, "change_1d_pct": -5.142083897158312, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -0.9669030259720546, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.993674353237144, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.19219236094925, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 1534.5, "change_1d_pct": 7.382785164450656, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 21.219431937066368, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.190705106538676, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.88935643255697, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "name": "Bigben Interactive", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.473, "change_1d_pct": -40.65244667503137, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -57.481044006670004, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -45.84258856396987, "volatility_20d_pct": 245.7660340614924, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "name": "Barratt Redrow Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 377.4, "change_1d_pct": 0.9090909090909038, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.28549121293298, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.5047525194126434, "volatility_20d_pct": 106.95952062178588, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "S92_CFD.DE", "name": "SMA Solar Technology AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 31.14, "change_1d_pct": -5.1708386625251235, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.486658265300516, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.5837717678376, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.8717509048974, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TCAP_CFD.UK", "name": "TP ICAP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 265.0, "change_1d_pct": 7.72357723577235, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.0410112189618959, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.1700858141521238, "volatility_20d_pct": 67.76567663345816, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 305.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.2735042735042805, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.344980756373573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1704016694101371, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.9931345477538, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "name": "BRITISH LAND CO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 412.2, "change_1d_pct": -1.1036468330134386, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.038592258830414, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.655801721389861, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.77968057978609, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NA9_CFD.DE", "name": "Nagarro N", "sector": "", "last_price": 53.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.330708661417337, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.5807971249533, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -21.072484944948812, "volatility_20d_pct": 128.31257124496162, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IMI_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 2904.0, "change_1d_pct": 16.814159292035402, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 32.70582912867817, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.464370599684507, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.61600707633436, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.4, "change_1d_pct": -12.674418604651173, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.03446775272175, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.34777426817815, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.82535981934274, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TBCG_CFD.UK", "name": "TBC BANK GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4850.0, "change_1d_pct": 23.096446700507613, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 9.813098898141014, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 16.90579807924497, "volatility_20d_pct": 97.89018560398101, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BT_CFD.UK", "name": "BT GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 216.2, "change_1d_pct": 8.137848246886392, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 13.016588922021931, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.284390080749198, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.91179246153717, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 31.26, "change_1d_pct": 23.851030110935035, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.691085471826336, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 32.023515896881435, "volatility_20d_pct": 210.87769115491298, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ELV_CFD.US", "name": "Elevance Health Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 348.18, "change_1d_pct": 0.5603049907578539, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.9956733590839151, "volatility_20d_pct": 6143.828814681021, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.6, "change_1d_pct": -20.82242990654205, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.68377383888033, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -24.301477407850992, "volatility_20d_pct": 153.59085037557008, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MKS_CFD.UK", "name": "MARKS & SPENCER GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 397.6, "change_1d_pct": 9.411117226197053, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.111525306334212, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.600812560994456, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.27498035906231, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LPE_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 90.2, "change_1d_pct": 2.26757369614512, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.9581361722202715, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.587656998761199, "volatility_20d_pct": 53.26712560046399, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "name": "Zscaler Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 151.55, "change_1d_pct": 1.0400693379558623, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -42.90452642215009, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -23.760472559303825, "volatility_20d_pct": 152.59535765367136, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR", "name": "Lectra SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 19.66, "change_1d_pct": 4.574468085106376, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -16.089998811346117, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.652425072574891, "volatility_20d_pct": 99.45446194059893, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYW6_CFD.DE", "name": "BayWa AG vNa", "sector": "", "last_price": 3.005, "change_1d_pct": -3.685897435897445, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.657415546904431, "volatility_20d_pct": 6647.725279931619, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "name": "MARSHALLS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 182.32, "change_1d_pct": 0.8407079646017612, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.111863069088763, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.139091576985178, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.4204512350097, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MRCY_CFD.US", "name": "Mercury Systems Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 85.37, "change_1d_pct": 3.8564476885644794, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.0149086235919498, "volatility_20d_pct": 9454.668191215436, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ULVR_CFD.UK", "name": "Unilever Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 5467.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.4097570024114159, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.415794279282739, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.90828754815911, "volatility_20d_pct": 53.276021992395115, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "name": "ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL", "sector": "", "last_price": 44.06, "change_1d_pct": -23.57328707718993, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.014582710888924, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -27.543858495096142, "volatility_20d_pct": 106.62447985948238, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TMV_CFD.DE", "name": "TEAMVIEWER SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 4.54, "change_1d_pct": 0.48694112439133796, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -41.16175721578471, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.628573813143877, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.46690312314288, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHK_CFD.DE", "name": "Rhoen-Klinikum AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 13.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.015386982612719535, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.9486879981627467, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.2914624192460913, "volatility_20d_pct": 114.49395403103814, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ETL_CFD.FR", "name": "Eutelsat Communications", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.31, "change_1d_pct": -1.9108280254777066, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -19.835367525342086, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.62414578587698, "volatility_20d_pct": 105.4431156650748, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "name": "ICG Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 1719.0, "change_1d_pct": -13.356854838709676, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.041741119434038, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.540628787118589, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.59006184069659, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FII_CFD.FR", "name": "Lisi Group", "sector": "", "last_price": 54.0, "change_1d_pct": -14.960629921259837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 16.40525065283944, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.567743481625907, "volatility_20d_pct": 93.59362468468639, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "REC_CFD.BE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 11.24, "change_1d_pct": 6.037735849056602, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 14.193407464225661, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.37289147516709, "volatility_20d_pct": 68.35106317682154, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "name": "THG PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 35.48, "change_1d_pct": -20.090090090090097, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.031971945380275, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -18.256005234564732, "volatility_20d_pct": 150.3458448856807, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MOS_CFD.US", "name": "The Mosaic Company", "sector": "", "last_price": 31.14, "change_1d_pct": 3.3864541832669293, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 19.517814672936073, "volatility_20d_pct": 4137.377654101071, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR",
      "selection_reason": "-41% 1d change and -46% below MA50",
      "mean_reversion_score": 100
    },
    "{\"symbol\":\"MCG_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":98,\"selection_reason\":\"+24% 1d change and +32% above MA50\"}",
    "{\"symbol\":\"AML_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":92,\"selection_reason\":\"-24% 1d change and -28% below MA50\"}",
    "{\"symbol\":\"FUTR_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":90,\"selection_reason\":\"-21% 1d change and -24% below MA50\"}",
    "{\"symbol\":\"TBCG_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":88,\"selection_reason\":\"+23% 1d change and +17% above MA50\"}"
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Insufficient deviation from MA50 (<15% abs)",
    "Recent 1d change too small (<10% abs)",
    "Low volatility_20d_pct for reversion potential"
  ]
}
#744openrouterx-ai/grok-4.1-fast2026-03-02T20:12:44.342845+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 29.7, "last_price": 28.06, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.453, "last_price": 0.453, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BXP_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 60.835, "last_price": 59.405, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T17:33:48.338981+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 94.6, "last_price": 96.44, "unrealized_pnl": 58.3509513742073, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CAR_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.465, "last_price": 97.54, "unrealized_pnl": 164.65689720434767, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "COIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 168.575, "last_price": 171.13, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 350.79999999999995, "last_price": 350.055, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ESTC_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 58.085, "last_price": 55.28, "unrealized_pnl": -144.87389171042437, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EXPO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 66.815, "last_price": 70.025, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 50.974999999999994, "last_price": 54.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FICO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1208.505, "last_price": 1405.2800000000002, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FLO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 9.875, "last_price": 10.055, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.488766849725412, "avg_price": 400.6, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 101.84722915626534, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HAIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.8, "last_price": 0.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.3529411764705883, "avg_price": 1275.0, "last_price": 1244.0, "unrealized_pnl": -72.94117647058823, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1700.0, "last_price": 1719.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JUN3_CFD.DE", "qty": 95.20787051729609, "avg_price": 31.51, "last_price": 32.03, "unrealized_pnl": 49.508092668993925, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LMND_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 61.5, "last_price": 59.89, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LPX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 86.45, "last_price": 86.15, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "NET_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 176.96, "last_price": 164.32, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 13.824884792626728, "avg_price": 217.0, "last_price": 217.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OKTA_CFD.US", "qty": 42.747221430607006, "avg_price": 70.18, "last_price": 73.99, "unrealized_pnl": 162.8669136506122, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAYC_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 121.22, "last_price": 119.79, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PROX_CFD.BE", "qty": 429.79942693409737, "avg_price": 6.98, "last_price": 7.08, "unrealized_pnl": 42.97994269340958, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 417.16, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "qty": 85.76329331046313, "avg_price": 34.98, "last_price": 34.98, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 196.2, "last_price": 196.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 134.3, "last_price": 139.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 32.48511099079589, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 95.1, "unrealized_pnl": 89.3340552246887, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 11.389521640091116, "avg_price": 263.4, "last_price": 257.0, "unrealized_pnl": -72.89293849658289, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 159.76, "last_price": 144.45, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "mean_reversion_score": 100, "selection_reason": "-41% 1d change and -46% below MA50"}, "{\"symbol\":\"MCG_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":98,\"selection_reason\":\"+24% 1d change and +32% above MA50\"}", "{\"symbol\":\"AML_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":92,\"selection_reason\":\"-24% 1d change and -28% below MA50\"}", "{\"symbol\":\"FUTR_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":90,\"selection_reason\":\"-21% 1d change and -24% below MA50\"}", "{\"symbol\":\"TBCG_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":88,\"selection_reason\":\"+23% 1d change and +17% above MA50\"}"], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Top mean-reversion score (100): -41% 1d change, -46% below MA50; strong oversold signal",
        "symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "High mean-reversion score (92): -24% 1d change, -28% below MA50; strong oversold signal",
        "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Neutral PnL, no strong sell signal; hold for potential mean reversion",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+101), recent oversold signal but already positioned; hold",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+49), stable; hold",
        "symbol": "JUN3_CFD.DE"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Neutral PnL, stable; hold",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+162), performing well; hold",
        "symbol": "OKTA_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+42), stable; hold",
        "symbol": "PROX_CFD.BE"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Neutral PnL, stable; hold",
        "symbol": "THG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+89), performing well; hold",
        "symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Negative unrealized PnL (-72) and underperforming; free slot for better mean-reversion opportunity",
        "symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Negative unrealized PnL (-72) and underperforming; free slot for better mean-reversion opportunity",
        "symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Replace two losing positions (HIK, WPP) with top mean-reversion buy candidates (BIG, AML) to improve portfolio quality while maintaining 10 positions and adhering to max 2 buys/2 sells. Holds are stable or profitable without strong sell signals. Gross leverage at limits but managed via fixed sizing."
}
Selection logs
#370stage12026-03-02T20:12:44.339578+00:00
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR",
      "selection_reason": "-41% 1d change and -46% below MA50",
      "mean_reversion_score": 100
    },
    "{\"symbol\":\"MCG_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":98,\"selection_reason\":\"+24% 1d change and +32% above MA50\"}",
    "{\"symbol\":\"AML_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":92,\"selection_reason\":\"-24% 1d change and -28% below MA50\"}",
    "{\"symbol\":\"FUTR_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":90,\"selection_reason\":\"-21% 1d change and -24% below MA50\"}",
    "{\"symbol\":\"TBCG_CFD.UK\",\"mean_reversion_score\":88,\"selection_reason\":\"+23% 1d change and +17% above MA50\"}"
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Insufficient deviation from MA50 (<15% abs)",
    "Recent 1d change too small (<10% abs)",
    "Low volatility_20d_pct for reversion potential"
  ]
}