Arena run #356

You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).

{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 567.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.4639927073837784, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.929923575376698, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.6875042216270137, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.84223442053181, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "name": "WPP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 287.7, "change_1d_pct": 12.120031176929057, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -26.952858950083826, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.1305832237048214, "volatility_20d_pct": 162.7763312146067, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "name": "WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1403.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.8626887131560013, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.315696286669354, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.235260718145199, "volatility_20d_pct": 106.92938780570063, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "name": "GREENCOAT UK WIND PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 98.15, "change_1d_pct": -2.163078149920239, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -12.46829595436757, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.845149398930528, "volatility_20d_pct": 32.62462101640031, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "name": "PZ CUSSONS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 86.6, "change_1d_pct": -4.309392265193379, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 14.56109936323342, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.620006882494629, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.22093402997464, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "name": "Bigben Interactive", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.453, "change_1d_pct": -23.479729729729726, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -59.278885697719886, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -48.13254253589503, "volatility_20d_pct": 12310.872493995772, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "name": "Barratt Redrow Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 377.4, "change_1d_pct": 0.9090909090909038, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.28549121293298, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.5047525194126434, "volatility_20d_pct": 106.95952062178588, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TCAP_CFD.UK", "name": "TP ICAP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 257.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.018867924528301, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.028452389710213, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.0555171858003467, "volatility_20d_pct": 2720.691666816466, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "IP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 55.9, "change_1d_pct": -2.951388888888895, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.980220141944948, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.919036603619542, "volatility_20d_pct": 3048.7333361404435, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 296.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.950819672131144, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -32.400374766841246, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.086684898837378, "volatility_20d_pct": 8661.769059246726, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCC_CFD.UK", "name": "COMPUTACENTER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2978.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.679738562091505, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 17.35893991379911, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.4633877465073617, "volatility_20d_pct": 5338.29627811264, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 292.6, "change_1d_pct": -2.596537949400779, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -29.90308010801058, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -16.57176681381133, "volatility_20d_pct": 3853.0934438816757, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MKS_CFD.UK", "name": "MARKS & SPENCER GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 397.6, "change_1d_pct": -2.572898799313894, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.091859972346917, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.883416074757426, "volatility_20d_pct": 3230.9162818073323, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 412.5, "change_1d_pct": -2.4822695035460973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -0.6645361918828807, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.1817499624793744, "volatility_20d_pct": 3857.1547460259226, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 414.2, "change_1d_pct": 3.3949076385421773, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -39.06661738447647, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -25.9812840942679, "volatility_20d_pct": 5563.010447162194, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 217.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.208201892744477, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.964222445414011, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.31484776634673, "volatility_20d_pct": 7423.017762834272, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "HAMMERSON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 348.8, "change_1d_pct": -1.8570624648283518, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 20.24082637989966, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.964017771966869, "volatility_20d_pct": 3280.1806241206145, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NVDA_CFD.US", "name": "NVIDIA Corporation", "sector": "", "last_price": 184.89, "change_1d_pct": -5.456125997136441, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.38415327338459093, "volatility_20d_pct": 4390.348323973547, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ZBH_CFD.US", "name": "Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 98.75, "change_1d_pct": -0.5037783375314908, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.886228799601126, "volatility_20d_pct": 2195.2476425244195, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PROX_CFD.BE", "name": "Proximus SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 6.98, "change_1d_pct": -15.700483091787431, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -3.6848812171029754, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.214589137486563, "volatility_20d_pct": 6302.953224859111, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Deeply oversold (-39% from MA200) with bullish intraday reversal (+3.4%)",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Severely extended below MAs (-30% from MA200, -16.6% from MA50)",
      "mean_reversion_score": 82
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Oversold (-27% from MA200) with strong bullish momentum (+12.1% today)",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Overbought (+14.6% above MAs) breaking down (-4.3% today)",
      "mean_reversion_score": 75
    },
    {
      "symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Moderately oversold (-12.5% from MA200) with stable volatility profile",
      "mean_reversion_score": 65
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Extreme volatility (>6000%) creating unfavorable risk/reward",
    "Mixed signals: not clearly overbought or oversold",
    "Insufficient extension from key moving averages",
    "No clear mean reversion catalyst in price action"
  ]
}

You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.

{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.7647058823529411, "avg_price": 1700.0, "last_price": 1693.0, "unrealized_pnl": -12.352941176470587, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR", "qty": 148.88337468982633, "avg_price": 20.15, "last_price": 19.44, "unrealized_pnl": -105.70719602977628, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 14.577259475218659, "avg_price": 205.8, "last_price": 205.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 11.389521640091116, "avg_price": 263.4, "last_price": 263.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 88, "selection_reason": "Deeply oversold (-39% from MA200) with bullish intraday reversal (+3.4%)"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 82, "selection_reason": "Severely extended below MAs (-30% from MA200, -16.6% from MA50)"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 78, "selection_reason": "Oversold (-27% from MA200) with strong bullish momentum (+12.1% today)"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 75, "selection_reason": "Overbought (+14.6% above MAs) breaking down (-4.3% today)"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 65, "selection_reason": "Moderately oversold (-12.5% from MA200) with stable volatility profile"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}

{
  "actions": {
    ",": {
      "reason": "Top mean-reversion score (88), deeply oversold (-39% from MA200) with confirmed bullish intraday reversal (+3.4%)",
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "position_size": 3000
    },
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "High mean-reversion score (82), severely extended below MAs (-30% from MA200, -16.6% from MA50) offering asymmetric rebound potential",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Minimal unrealized loss (-0.4%), no candidate signal, avoid overtrading",
        "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position flat, no candidate signal, maintaining status quo",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Strong mean-reversion score (78) in candidates despite flat mark, oversold with bullish momentum signal",
        "symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Cutting losses (-3.5% unrealized) on position lacking clear mean-reversion signal to reallocate capital to higher-scoring opportunities",
        "symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Rotating out of the weakest non-signal position (LSS) to concentrate capital in two highest-conviction mean-reversion setups (FUTR, BYIT) while preserving capital in flat/signal-aligned holdings. This maintains discipline within the 2-buy/2-sell limit, keeps gross leverage well below 3.0x, and maximizes exposure to statistically oversold conditions with bullish catalysts."
}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Deeply oversold (-39% from MA200) with bullish intraday reversal (+3.4%)",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Severely extended below MAs (-30% from MA200, -16.6% from MA50)",
      "mean_reversion_score": 82
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Oversold (-27% from MA200) with strong bullish momentum (+12.1% today)",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Overbought (+14.6% above MAs) breaking down (-4.3% today)",
      "mean_reversion_score": 75
    },
    {
      "symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Moderately oversold (-12.5% from MA200) with stable volatility profile",
      "mean_reversion_score": 65
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Extreme volatility (>6000%) creating unfavorable risk/reward",
    "Mixed signals: not clearly overbought or oversold",
    "Insufficient extension from key moving averages",
    "No clear mean reversion catalyst in price action"
  ]
}