Arena run #324
meanrev-v1 • z-ai • z-ai/glm-4.7 • US • success
Run status
as_of: 2026-02-26T18:07:22.382508+00:00
started_at: 2026-02-26T18:10:54.691446+00:00
finished_at: 2026-02-26T18:12:12.694548+00:00
duration_ms: 78001
Inputs
{
"dry_run": false,
"selected": [
{
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Severe oversold: -20.8% 1d drop, -37.7% vs MA200, high volatility 153.6%.",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Strong mean reversion signal: -21.3% 1d drop, -14.1% vs MA200, extreme volatility 240.9%.",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
},
{
"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR",
"selection_reason": "Extreme oversold: -40.7% 1d drop, -57.5% vs MA200, very high volatility 245.8%.",
"mean_reversion_score": 80
},
{
"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "Deeply oversold: -53.0% vs MA200, -25.1% vs MA50, high volatility 164.3%.",
"mean_reversion_score": 75
},
{
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Clear downtrend extension: -12.7% 1d drop, -28.0% vs MA200, -14.3% vs MA50.",
"mean_reversion_score": 72
}
],
"universe_symbols": [
"WIZZ_CFD.UK",
"CRDA_CFD.UK",
"BIG_CFD.FR",
"XRX_CFD.US",
"JEF_CFD.US",
"LIO_CFD.UK",
"IPO_CFD.UK",
"ATG_CFD.UK",
"GO_CFD.US",
"CCC_CFD.UK",
"BYIT_CFD.UK",
"KGX_CFD.DE",
"ZBRA_CFD.US",
"WKP_CFD.UK",
"WU_CFD.US",
"PZC_CFD.UK",
"HAIN_CFD.US",
"WDAY_CFD.US",
"FUTR_CFD.UK",
"OCDO_CFD.UK",
"AKE_CFD.FR",
"GMM_CFD.DE",
"HMSO_CFD.UK",
"WEX_CFD.US",
"PAGE_CFD.UK",
"ORA_CFD.US",
"BYW6_CFD.DE",
"AAL_CFD.UK",
"ICG_CFD.UK",
"FSLR_CFD.US",
"XFAB_CFD.FR",
"SBRY_CFD.UK",
"GRI_CFD.UK",
"XRAY_CFD.US",
"MRCY_CFD.US",
"CABO_CFD.US",
"WST_CFD.US",
"HDD_CFD.DE",
"SOI_CFD.FR",
"MKSI_CFD.US",
"BT_CFD.UK",
"ADYEN_CFD.NL",
"BLD_CFD.US",
"WFC_CFD.US",
"DHER_CFD.DE",
"KWR_CFD.US",
"ATO_CFD.FR",
"MOS_CFD.US",
"DSY_CFD.FR",
"WY_CFD.US"
]
}Outputs
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Extreme oversold conditions with score 80 (-40.7% 1d drop), strong mean reversion candidate.",
"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "Deeply oversold with score 75 (-53.0% vs MA200), strong mean reversion candidate.",
"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "High mean reversion score (72) and currently held, continue to hold for bounce.",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Top candidate (Score 85) with severe oversold signal, hold for potential rebound.",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Strong candidate (Score 82) with oversold signal, hold for potential rebound.",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat position, no strong sell signal yet, holding to avoid churn.",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Small loss, holding to avoid realizing loss while monitoring for recovery.",
"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat position, holding to avoid churn.",
"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Modest profit, not a top sell priority compared to higher PnL winners.",
"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Profitable position (+239.88) no longer appearing in candidate list, indicating mean reversion has played out.",
"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US"
},
{
"reason": "Profitable position (+118.39) no longer appearing in candidate list, indicating mean reversion has played out.",
"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Rotating out of profitable positions (CRWD, TRST) that have likely completed their mean reversion cycle (no longer in candidate list) to free up capital for new high-conviction oversold opportunities (BIG, XRX). Maintaining holdings in existing high-score candidates (FUTR, OCDO, BYIT) to capture potential bounces. Gross leverage remains within limits (approx 2.7x)."
}Prompts & responses
#635 • openrouter • z-ai/glm-4.7 • 2026-02-26T18:10:54.730341+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "name": "WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1403.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.8626887131560013, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.315696286669354, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.235260718145199, "volatility_20d_pct": 106.92938780570063, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "name": "CRODA INTERNATIONAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3270.0, "change_1d_pct": 18.306801736613608, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.315074372668791, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 15.114636224020273, "volatility_20d_pct": 105.57470323224747, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "name": "Bigben Interactive", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.473, "change_1d_pct": -40.65244667503137, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -57.481044006670004, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -45.84258856396987, "volatility_20d_pct": 245.7660340614924, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.73, "change_1d_pct": -3.8888888888888973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -53.016579987235716, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -25.095254589539316, "volatility_20d_pct": 164.3085342980094, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JEF_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 51.8, "change_1d_pct": -2.0608810739270234, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.607660819924492, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.479493971959345, "volatility_20d_pct": 80.64525803115869, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 259.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.19342359767891004, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.670350849922237, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.35817197640911624, "volatility_20d_pct": 128.03912578370827, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "IP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 57.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.873935264054516, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.233643652522883, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.027486732888828, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.82123635439407, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 305.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.2735042735042805, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.344980756373573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1704016694101371, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.9931345477538, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GO_CFD.US", "name": "Grocery Outlet Holding Corp", "sector": "", "last_price": 10.17, "change_1d_pct": -2.7724665391969494, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.51917096886997, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.845701110369503, "volatility_20d_pct": 83.47026730669637, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCC_CFD.UK", "name": "COMPUTACENTER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3060.0, "change_1d_pct": -6.877662811929397, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 20.590448668980944, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.284743621327226, "volatility_20d_pct": 97.14510937756963, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.4, "change_1d_pct": -12.674418604651173, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.03446775272175, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.34777426817815, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.82535981934274, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KGX_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 56.85, "change_1d_pct": -11.655011655011648, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.06708983516388045, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.757666217668138, "volatility_20d_pct": 74.87203797717619, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ZBRA_CFD.US", "name": "ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORP-CL A", "sector": "", "last_price": 234.7, "change_1d_pct": -5.07583417593529, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.735529365909887, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.859645435416194, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.60798871367223, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WU_CFD.US", "name": "Western Union Co", "sector": "", "last_price": 9.46, "change_1d_pct": 4.299889746416774, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.540529887096347, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.6156367533040386, "volatility_20d_pct": 75.76006646017565, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "name": "PZ CUSSONS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 88.8, "change_1d_pct": -1.442841287458374, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 17.468164209381708, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.734408145948244, "volatility_20d_pct": 83.4578314576364, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HAIN_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.81, "change_1d_pct": -6.896551724137923, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -44.105165096780865, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -26.323449154084035, "volatility_20d_pct": 232.8141257756938, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WDAY_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 138.33, "change_1d_pct": 7.1744014875648965, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.74446201143038, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -24.520292162616663, "volatility_20d_pct": 126.51275678067735, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.6, "change_1d_pct": -20.82242990654205, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.68377383888033, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -24.301477407850992, "volatility_20d_pct": 153.59085037557008, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 221.9, "change_1d_pct": -21.312056737588648, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.06664037160078, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.1767959417158487, "volatility_20d_pct": 240.9598068877464, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AKE_CFD.FR", "name": "Arkema", "sector": "", "last_price": 62.759, "change_1d_pct": 2.4636734693877615, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 9.977632618385556, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.148573756686499, "volatility_20d_pct": 81.65390836490786, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GMM_CFD.DE", "name": "Grammer AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 7.05, "change_1d_pct": -11.875000000000002, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.634198509883537, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.998133224058645, "volatility_20d_pct": 188.60891098979153, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "HAMMERSON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 355.4, "change_1d_pct": 14.129736673089276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.516025502913806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.006914897239172, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.54938293511039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WEX_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 149.94, "change_1d_pct": -2.9765756438462465, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.917650288579454, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.202315810675782, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.89550436994814, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "name": "PAGEGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 209.6, "change_1d_pct": -10.960067969413767, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -19.313052268665963, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.41066281665177, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.6882126676479, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ORA_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 112.28, "change_1d_pct": -3.0982998187624067, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.384461356831178, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.045092586954603, "volatility_20d_pct": 68.68415435206668, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYW6_CFD.DE", "name": "BayWa AG vNa", "sector": "", "last_price": 3.06, "change_1d_pct": 6.065857885615267, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -53.61380307695105, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.7172685910627057, "volatility_20d_pct": 118.79820245069747, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AAL_CFD.UK", "name": "ANGLO AMERICAN PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3734.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.638812534359536, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 38.51089327526089, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 11.895605655193119, "volatility_20d_pct": 90.89077184840629, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "name": "ICG Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 1719.0, "change_1d_pct": -13.356854838709676, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.041741119434038, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.540628787118589, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.59006184069659, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FSLR_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 206.54, "change_1d_pct": -14.134863224411742, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -3.7850345060667756, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.277111201355298, "volatility_20d_pct": 148.88168197972774, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "XFAB_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 4.865, "change_1d_pct": 5.991285403050117, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.099204902137867, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.701945961080765, "volatility_20d_pct": 97.42416181691422, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SBRY_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 357.2, "change_1d_pct": 10.178901912399763, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.34261875857823, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.883849098934338, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.67002241497596, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GRI_CFD.UK", "name": "GRAINGER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 192.4, "change_1d_pct": 0.08322929671245038, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.9312468607917275, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9128310349964197, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.43116862190418, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "XRAY_CFD.US", "name": "DENTSPLY SIRONA INC", "sector": "", "last_price": 12.62, "change_1d_pct": 1.284109149277679, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.681307792702363, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.68176788387684, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.9417615446987, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MRCY_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 87.57, "change_1d_pct": -1.6177957532861664, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 26.208289075639925, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.497484874475541, "volatility_20d_pct": 145.45901610832544, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "name": "Cable One Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 91.87, "change_1d_pct": -9.344779948687588, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -31.54150468598288, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.91547527995137, "volatility_20d_pct": 139.4171607905365, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WST_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 246.19, "change_1d_pct": 1.7398132077031114, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.5220895285368519, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.234321914893457, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.14627935312086, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HDD_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.434, "change_1d_pct": -2.049180327868849, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -22.000146861648172, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -21.030893771683466, "volatility_20d_pct": 116.20058568648616, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SOI_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 42.03, "change_1d_pct": 5.61628345269507, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 13.569072247682733, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 42.21069107696429, "volatility_20d_pct": 125.62377239355162, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MKSI_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 245.78, "change_1d_pct": -5.614439324116738, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 75.96601245608545, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.558375017816942, "volatility_20d_pct": 101.41849337091375, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BT_CFD.UK", "name": "BT GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 212.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.6634382566586012, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.1077045069635, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.817919884916627, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.94866493754692, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ADYEN_CFD.NL", "name": "ADYEN NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 1005.2, "change_1d_pct": 6.320079285248137, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -29.262388730808887, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -20.057815409455728, "volatility_20d_pct": 127.81126874468637, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BLD_CFD.US", "name": "Topbuild Corp", "sector": "", "last_price": 459.16, "change_1d_pct": -9.129410833382812, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.159769290315147, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.4973083239561387, "volatility_20d_pct": 78.14982032883752, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WFC_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 86.13, "change_1d_pct": -1.0000000000000009, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.9068527504852115, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.407987769921652, "volatility_20d_pct": 56.98904269001454, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DHER_CFD.DE", "name": "DELIVERY HERO SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 20.93, "change_1d_pct": 4.949104949104943, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -9.661435403394291, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.919611657245296, "volatility_20d_pct": 113.22468971425188, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KWR_CFD.US", "name": "QUAKER CHEMICAL CORP", "sector": "", "last_price": 152.03, "change_1d_pct": -11.948337773659212, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.90347135658314, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.3579749443486064, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.22092782367525, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATO_CFD.FR", "name": "Atos SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 38.9, "change_1d_pct": 11.333714939896966, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.19638895753351, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.190911898509746, "volatility_20d_pct": 100.08102358517424, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MOS_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 27.24, "change_1d_pct": -8.621268030862128, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -12.034540328804821, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.976401770423263, "volatility_20d_pct": 81.86553432791558, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DSY_CFD.FR", "name": "Dassault Systemes SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 18.49, "change_1d_pct": 7.219483908379232, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.74797431270455, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -16.456339061654234, "volatility_20d_pct": 141.86771176157237, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WY_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 24.19, "change_1d_pct": -5.248726987857422, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -3.1524498146324187, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.636127099266729, "volatility_20d_pct": 49.712191171522484, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}Output JSON
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Severe oversold: -20.8% 1d drop, -37.7% vs MA200, high volatility 153.6%.",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Strong mean reversion signal: -21.3% 1d drop, -14.1% vs MA200, extreme volatility 240.9%.",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
},
{
"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR",
"selection_reason": "Extreme oversold: -40.7% 1d drop, -57.5% vs MA200, very high volatility 245.8%.",
"mean_reversion_score": 80
},
{
"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "Deeply oversold: -53.0% vs MA200, -25.1% vs MA50, high volatility 164.3%.",
"mean_reversion_score": 75
},
{
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Clear downtrend extension: -12.7% 1d drop, -28.0% vs MA200, -14.3% vs MA50.",
"mean_reversion_score": 72
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Insufficient price deviation from moving averages",
"Low volatility indicating lack of reversion energy",
"Region mismatch (non-US symbols excluded)",
"Binary event risk suspected due to extreme single-day moves without context"
]
}#636 • openrouter • z-ai/glm-4.7 • 2026-02-26T18:11:35.975476+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 8.585533376260999, "avg_price": 349.425, "last_price": 377.365, "unrealized_pnl": 239.8798025327323, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 47.4, "last_price": 52.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.488766849725412, "avg_price": 400.6, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 101.84722915626534, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 13.824884792626728, "avg_price": 217.0, "last_price": 217.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 14.577259475218659, "avg_price": 205.8, "last_price": 205.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.070469007777516, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 416.7, "unrealized_pnl": -53.73556445910928, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "qty": 85.76329331046313, "avg_price": 34.98, "last_price": 34.98, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 22.338049143708115, "avg_price": 134.3, "last_price": 139.6, "unrealized_pnl": 118.39166046165263, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 18.778167250876315, "avg_price": 159.76, "last_price": 162.58, "unrealized_pnl": 52.954431647471615, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T17:33:48.338981+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 85, "selection_reason": "Severe oversold: -20.8% 1d drop, -37.7% vs MA200, high volatility 153.6%."}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 82, "selection_reason": "Strong mean reversion signal: -21.3% 1d drop, -14.1% vs MA200, extreme volatility 240.9%."}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "mean_reversion_score": 80, "selection_reason": "Extreme oversold: -40.7% 1d drop, -57.5% vs MA200, very high volatility 245.8%."}, {"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 75, "selection_reason": "Deeply oversold: -53.0% vs MA200, -25.1% vs MA50, high volatility 164.3%."}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 72, "selection_reason": "Clear downtrend extension: -12.7% 1d drop, -28.0% vs MA200, -14.3% vs MA50."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}Output JSON
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Extreme oversold conditions with score 80 (-40.7% 1d drop), strong mean reversion candidate.",
"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "Deeply oversold with score 75 (-53.0% vs MA200), strong mean reversion candidate.",
"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "High mean reversion score (72) and currently held, continue to hold for bounce.",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Top candidate (Score 85) with severe oversold signal, hold for potential rebound.",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Strong candidate (Score 82) with oversold signal, hold for potential rebound.",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat position, no strong sell signal yet, holding to avoid churn.",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Small loss, holding to avoid realizing loss while monitoring for recovery.",
"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat position, holding to avoid churn.",
"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Modest profit, not a top sell priority compared to higher PnL winners.",
"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Profitable position (+239.88) no longer appearing in candidate list, indicating mean reversion has played out.",
"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US"
},
{
"reason": "Profitable position (+118.39) no longer appearing in candidate list, indicating mean reversion has played out.",
"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Rotating out of profitable positions (CRWD, TRST) that have likely completed their mean reversion cycle (no longer in candidate list) to free up capital for new high-conviction oversold opportunities (BIG, XRX). Maintaining holdings in existing high-score candidates (FUTR, OCDO, BYIT) to capture potential bounces. Gross leverage remains within limits (approx 2.7x)."
}Selection logs
#316 • stage1 • 2026-02-26T18:11:35.973056+00:00
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Severe oversold: -20.8% 1d drop, -37.7% vs MA200, high volatility 153.6%.",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Strong mean reversion signal: -21.3% 1d drop, -14.1% vs MA200, extreme volatility 240.9%.",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
},
{
"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR",
"selection_reason": "Extreme oversold: -40.7% 1d drop, -57.5% vs MA200, very high volatility 245.8%.",
"mean_reversion_score": 80
},
{
"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US",
"selection_reason": "Deeply oversold: -53.0% vs MA200, -25.1% vs MA50, high volatility 164.3%.",
"mean_reversion_score": 75
},
{
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Clear downtrend extension: -12.7% 1d drop, -28.0% vs MA200, -14.3% vs MA50.",
"mean_reversion_score": 72
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Insufficient price deviation from moving averages",
"Low volatility indicating lack of reversion energy",
"Region mismatch (non-US symbols excluded)",
"Binary event risk suspected due to extreme single-day moves without context"
]
}