Arena run #320

You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).

{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "name": "HIKMA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1407.0, "change_1d_pct": -14.207317073170733, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -22.089567759898976, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.596426109631583, "volatility_20d_pct": 6572.791841352222, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "name": "WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1299.0, "change_1d_pct": -7.412687099073412, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 3.990085157792933, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.21211951024278086, "volatility_20d_pct": 5874.684590366408, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "name": "CRODA INTERNATIONAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3270.0, "change_1d_pct": 18.306801736613608, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.315074372668791, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 15.114636224020273, "volatility_20d_pct": 105.57470323224747, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "name": "Bigben Interactive", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.462, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -45.79246257098606, "volatility_20d_pct": 11712.882237669019, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FRVIA_CFD.FR", "name": "FORVIA SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 12.765, "change_1d_pct": -3.4052213393870545, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.238231691715473, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.546938740419453, "volatility_20d_pct": 5056.2205078171555, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPR_CFD.PT", "name": "Impresa SGPS SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.188, "change_1d_pct": -3.589743589743588, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 23.639472559271326, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.613013354754493, "volatility_20d_pct": 4014.7582461205325, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 250.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.474903474903479, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.426979584867023, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.8206293208582265, "volatility_20d_pct": 4554.2291072837315, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FRES_CFD.UK", "name": "FRESNILLO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4170.0, "change_1d_pct": -3.293135435992578, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 76.80357453580795, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.481333358580947, "volatility_20d_pct": 6227.4447564879465, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 315.5, "change_1d_pct": -0.15822784810126667, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.9598929608719793, "volatility_20d_pct": 4125.199412345139, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BEKB_CFD.BE", "name": "Bekaert", "sector": "", "last_price": 43.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.5837104072398245, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.196326789107024, "volatility_20d_pct": 2389.5802751804977, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCC_CFD.UK", "name": "COMPUTACENTER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2992.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.540716612377847, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.946633623541939, "volatility_20d_pct": 3425.126046830974, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 290.6, "change_1d_pct": 0.1378359751895264, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.036712512419047, "volatility_20d_pct": 3710.24320963922, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 412.5, "change_1d_pct": -2.4822695035460973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -0.6645361918828807, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.1817499624793744, "volatility_20d_pct": 3857.1547460259226, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "name": "BRITISH LAND CO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 413.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.3259962538279444, "volatility_20d_pct": 2013.7372429692637, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BAMNB_CFD.NL", "name": "Royal BAM Group NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 9.53, "change_1d_pct": 4.266958424507639, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.102945031897209, "volatility_20d_pct": 3975.3935883010895, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BURBERRY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1174.5, "change_1d_pct": -0.550381033022862, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.69118971687319, "volatility_20d_pct": 4100.463229875871, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AA_CFD.US", "name": "Alcoa Corp", "sector": "", "last_price": 61.41, "change_1d_pct": 2.675137936799854, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.738932796115503, "volatility_20d_pct": 5681.8944028122905, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NCLH_CFD.US", "name": "Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd", "sector": "", "last_price": 24.31, "change_1d_pct": 2.401010951979776, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.307270086521058, "volatility_20d_pct": 8081.99162683117, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme oversold condition: -14.2% 1D change and -22% vs MA200, prime for technical bounce.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme overbought condition: +18.3% 1D change, potential for short-term pullback.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Significant 1D drop of -7.4% with high volatility, attractive for intraday/short-term reversal.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 85
    },
    {
      "symbol": "FRES_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extended valuation (+76% vs MA200) showing signs of cooling (-3.3% 1D), mean reversion candidate.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 80
    },
    {
      "symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Deep value deviation (-23% vs MA200) with recent weakness, potential support test.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 75
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Insufficient volatility or price deviation (flat 1D change)",
    "Sector concentration limits",
    "Region mismatch (US stocks in EU scan)",
    "Lack of clear mean reversion signal (trading near MA50)"
  ]
}

You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.

{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 32.48511099079589, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 92.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.3094688221709005, "avg_price": 1299.0, "last_price": 1299.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 95, "selection_reason": "Extreme oversold condition: -14.2% 1D change and -22% vs MA200, prime for technical bounce."}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 90, "selection_reason": "Extreme overbought condition: +18.3% 1D change, potential for short-term pullback."}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 85, "selection_reason": "Significant 1D drop of -7.4% with high volatility, attractive for intraday/short-term reversal."}, {"symbol": "FRES_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 80, "selection_reason": "Extended valuation (+76% vs MA200) showing signs of cooling (-3.3% 1D), mean reversion candidate."}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 75, "selection_reason": "Deep value deviation (-23% vs MA200) with recent weakness, potential support test."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}

{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Highest mean reversion score (95). Extreme oversold condition (-14.2% 1D) presents a strong technical bounce opportunity.",
        "symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "High mean reversion score (75). Deep value deviation (-23% vs MA200) suggests potential support test and rebound.",
        "symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Recently opened position, PnL flat, holding to allow thesis to play out.",
        "symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Remains a high-conviction candidate (Score 85) with recent drop offering attractive reversal potential.",
        "symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "The strategy focuses on acquiring deeply oversold assets while maintaining existing positions to avoid churn. HIK and LIO are added due to extreme negative deviations (oversold) aligning with the mean reversion logic. CRDA and FRES were skipped as they show overbought conditions (potential shorts), and the current allocation prioritizes long-side reversals. Existing holdings (UKW, WIZZ) are retained as they are recently opened and WIZZ specifically remains a top-ranked candidate."
}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme oversold condition: -14.2% 1D change and -22% vs MA200, prime for technical bounce.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme overbought condition: +18.3% 1D change, potential for short-term pullback.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Significant 1D drop of -7.4% with high volatility, attractive for intraday/short-term reversal.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 85
    },
    {
      "symbol": "FRES_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extended valuation (+76% vs MA200) showing signs of cooling (-3.3% 1D), mean reversion candidate.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 80
    },
    {
      "symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Deep value deviation (-23% vs MA200) with recent weakness, potential support test.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 75
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Insufficient volatility or price deviation (flat 1D change)",
    "Sector concentration limits",
    "Region mismatch (US stocks in EU scan)",
    "Lack of clear mean reversion signal (trading near MA50)"
  ]
}