Arena run #198

meanrev-v1x-aix-ai/grok-4.1-fastEUsuccess
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00
started_at: 2026-02-20T09:42:58.757170+00:00
finished_at: 2026-02-20T09:43:59.407960+00:00
duration_ms: 60649
Inputs
{
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [
    {
      "symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR",
      "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -45.84, change_1d_pct: -40.65, volatility_20d_pct: 245.77",
      "mean_reversion_score": 100
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -24.62, change_1d_pct: -37.85, volatility_20d_pct: 213.49",
      "mean_reversion_score": 98
    },
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -25.14, change_1d_pct: -13.70, volatility_20d_pct: 146.49",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "THG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -18.26, change_1d_pct: -20.09, volatility_20d_pct: 150.35",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -17.53, change_1d_pct: -14.81, volatility_20d_pct: 137.80",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    }
  ],
  "universe_symbols": [
    "CNA_CFD.UK",
    "UKW_CFD.UK",
    "FUTR_CFD.UK",
    "UMI_CFD.BE",
    "NK_CFD.FR",
    "BIG_CFD.FR",
    "LIO_CFD.UK",
    "FDJU_CFD.FR",
    "NBA_CFD.PT",
    "WU_CFD.US",
    "ATG_CFD.UK",
    "RENE_CFD.PT",
    "EZJ_CFD.UK",
    "BYIT_CFD.UK",
    "WKP_CFD.UK",
    "PZC_CFD.UK",
    "DE_CFD.US",
    "OCDO_CFD.UK",
    "VLA_CFD.FR",
    "HBR_CFD.UK",
    "AML_CFD.UK",
    "ADM_CFD.UK",
    "PNN_CFD.UK",
    "HMSO_CFD.UK",
    "MSLH_CFD.UK",
    "PAGE_CFD.UK",
    "BAYN_CFD.DE",
    "OLED_CFD.US",
    "FR_CFD.FR",
    "ZAL_CFD.DE",
    "RMV_CFD.UK",
    "ATO_CFD.FR",
    "XRX_CFD.US",
    "NAE_CFD.FR",
    "RHK_CFD.DE",
    "IPO_CFD.UK",
    "TRST_CFD.UK",
    "OVH_CFD.FR",
    "GRI_CFD.UK",
    "WLN_CFD.FR",
    "WCH_CFD.DE",
    "CCL_CFD.UK",
    "THG_CFD.UK",
    "NRO_CFD.FR",
    "AMG_CFD.NL",
    "POOL_CFD.US",
    "CAKE_CFD.US",
    "AYV_CFD.FR",
    "TUI1_CFD.DE"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Top mean-reversion score (100); extremely oversold (dist_ma50_pct: -45.84, change_1d_pct: -40.65, volatility_20d_pct: 245.77).",
        "symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+147); stable hold.",
        "symbol": "EXPO_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+183); stable hold.",
        "symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Slight positive PnL (+9); stable hold.",
        "symbol": "FLO_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+33); stable hold.",
        "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Slight positive PnL (+2); stable hold.",
        "symbol": "LMND_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat PnL; high mean-reversion score (90) in candidates; continue hold.",
        "symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat PnL; high mean-reversion score (92) in candidates; continue hold.",
        "symbol": "THG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Slight positive PnL (+4); stable hold.",
        "symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat PnL; high mean-reversion score (98) in candidates; continue hold.",
        "symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Unrealized loss (-35) and not among top mean-reversion candidates; clear underperformer.",
        "symbol": "PAYC_CFD.US"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Executed minimal trades to optimize mean-reversion exposure: sold losing PAYC (not in candidates) to free slot, bought top candidate BIG with strongest oversold signal. Held 9 positions (positive/stable PnL, several in candidates like TRST/THG/RMV). Maintains 10 positions, gross leverage within limits, adheres to max 2 buys/sells, avoids overtrading by limiting to 1 each."
}
Prompts & responses
#383openrouterx-ai/grok-4.1-fast2026-02-20T09:42:58.843857+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "CNA_CFD.UK", "name": "CENTRICA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 197.15, "change_1d_pct": 2.442192777344765, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 17.76955279230028, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.854901261534344, "volatility_20d_pct": 67.02546459903064, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "name": "GREENCOAT UK WIND PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 98.15, "change_1d_pct": -2.163078149920239, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -12.46829595436757, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.845149398930528, "volatility_20d_pct": 32.62462101640031, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 422.0, "change_1d_pct": -13.70143149284253, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -38.122509366851766, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -25.139370269544393, "volatility_20d_pct": 146.49494054552733, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UMI_CFD.BE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 18.57, "change_1d_pct": 3.853252055254175, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.44865662548119, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.637781261917881, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.81553994643487, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NK_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 25.48, "change_1d_pct": -1.6975308641975384, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 3.7444287755612704, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.0056163562501386, "volatility_20d_pct": 46.854333111408906, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "name": "Bigben Interactive", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.473, "change_1d_pct": -40.65244667503137, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -57.481044006670004, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -45.84258856396987, "volatility_20d_pct": 245.7660340614924, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 259.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.19342359767891004, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.670350849922237, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.35817197640911624, "volatility_20d_pct": 128.03912578370827, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FDJU_CFD.FR", "name": "FDJ United", "sector": "", "last_price": 25.06, "change_1d_pct": 10.105448154657282, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -8.00459169420228, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.726211260321604, "volatility_20d_pct": 61.30991626561717, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NBA_CFD.PT", "name": "Novabase SGPS SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 9.3, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.129745866729989, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.130463430705043, "volatility_20d_pct": 94.52203984531363, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WU_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 9.72, "change_1d_pct": 0.5170630816959676, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 9.377549470272829, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.102985356835241, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.11309506169986, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 305.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.2735042735042805, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.344980756373573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1704016694101371, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.9931345477538, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RENE_CFD.PT", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 3.8, "change_1d_pct": 8.571428571428562, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.47634272748369, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.485939257592783, "volatility_20d_pct": 55.15159252598514, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "name": "EASYJET PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 487.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.6142050040355072, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.529174031700998, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.5931384801188377, "volatility_20d_pct": 77.17417093400987, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.4, "change_1d_pct": -12.674418604651173, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.03446775272175, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.34777426817815, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.82535981934274, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "name": "PZ CUSSONS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 88.8, "change_1d_pct": -1.442841287458374, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 17.468164209381708, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.734408145948244, "volatility_20d_pct": 83.4578314576364, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DE_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 666.92, "change_1d_pct": 9.393914541130144, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 34.45742742611362, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 29.389738764344674, "volatility_20d_pct": 75.48603110127632, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 221.9, "change_1d_pct": -21.312056737588648, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.06664037160078, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.1767959417158487, "volatility_20d_pct": 240.9598068877464, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VLA_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 4.67, "change_1d_pct": 9.36768149882905, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 26.888381697641563, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 15.685118484351523, "volatility_20d_pct": 91.58043700669131, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HBR_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 224.0, "change_1d_pct": -1.5817223198594021, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 9.25712713749498, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.344190568789498, "volatility_20d_pct": 121.81714824955505, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "name": "ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL", "sector": "", "last_price": 59.0, "change_1d_pct": -8.484566465022493, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -16.661016566094887, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.144389531799131, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.29378050571474, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ADM_CFD.UK", "name": "ADMIRAL GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2886.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.6315789473684292, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.68686996101109, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.028103705495744, "volatility_20d_pct": 68.38439013288077, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PNN_CFD.UK", "name": "PENNON GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 555.5, "change_1d_pct": 7.728110152235046, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.15330418465657, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.049118953291236, "volatility_20d_pct": 59.72600720990832, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 355.4, "change_1d_pct": 14.129736673089276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.516025502913806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.006914897239172, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.54938293511039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 182.32, "change_1d_pct": 0.8407079646017612, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.111863069088763, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.139091576985178, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.4204512350097, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "name": "PAGEGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 209.6, "change_1d_pct": -10.960067969413767, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -19.313052268665963, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.41066281665177, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.6882126676479, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BAYN_CFD.DE", "name": "BAYER AG-REG", "sector": "", "last_price": 45.65, "change_1d_pct": -2.946679139382602, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 47.90677887709758, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.250467809761531, "volatility_20d_pct": 77.81568652038212, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OLED_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 119.15, "change_1d_pct": -5.765580512496038, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.285921388939014, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.9287668271429461, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.32112057245355, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FR_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 13.015, "change_1d_pct": -1.0266159695817456, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 21.012300670239846, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.150737170726562, "volatility_20d_pct": 65.48263432176559, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ZAL_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 21.078, "change_1d_pct": -1.9262981574539428, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -18.026108517207106, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.051881760360827, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.5001780947128, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "name": "RIGHTMOVE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 431.4, "change_1d_pct": -14.810426540284361, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.284210035093366, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.526388114623416, "volatility_20d_pct": 137.79982108268825, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATO_CFD.FR", "name": "Atos SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 40.25, "change_1d_pct": -4.198600466511171, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -8.121416235893065, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -21.50685006306754, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.9811804413433, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.8900000000000001, "change_1d_pct": -3.076923076923066, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -49.89860431826315, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -21.026241016212587, "volatility_20d_pct": 184.7912703955531, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NAE_CFD.FR", "name": "North Atlantic Energies", "sector": "", "last_price": 41.66, "change_1d_pct": -0.6202290076335992, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -53.24348885279208, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.783269858787998, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.71532381068768, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHK_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 13.1, "change_1d_pct": 0.7769828448342064, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 3.706805818505954, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.545034835373027, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.66428846887368, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 58.6, "change_1d_pct": 0.5145797598627766, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.529572618060026, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.45525582659509123, "volatility_20d_pct": 90.16825025482643, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "name": "TRUSTPILOT AS", "sector": "", "last_price": 136.36, "change_1d_pct": -37.848678213309014, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -36.800807370149315, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -24.62483776319949, "volatility_20d_pct": 213.49310525124298, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OVH_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 9.035, "change_1d_pct": 1.8602029312288826, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.5313304914344, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.714427414662972, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.79536568846085, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GRI_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 192.4, "change_1d_pct": 0.08322929671245038, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.9312468607917275, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9128310349964197, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.43116862190418, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WLN_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.379, "change_1d_pct": 3.918613413715155, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -50.02998563226201, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.990946771378702, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.41274567245263, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WCH_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 79.45, "change_1d_pct": -0.37617554858934144, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.50695260676516, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.699492607586825, "volatility_20d_pct": 91.55713440157228, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "name": "CARNIVAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2419.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.1556503198294283, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 29.618391987129257, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.778633621783047, "volatility_20d_pct": 140.95176391789954, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "name": "THG PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 35.48, "change_1d_pct": -20.090090090090097, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.031971945380275, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -18.256005234564732, "volatility_20d_pct": 150.3458448856807, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NRO_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 35.55, "change_1d_pct": 4.405286343612325, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.878276931551905, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.667123925719647, "volatility_20d_pct": 50.41922696791122, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AMG_CFD.NL", "name": "AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL", "sector": "", "last_price": 37.052, "change_1d_pct": 4.8443689869835715, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 37.652707776103675, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 11.129640049380285, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.4614871726485, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "POOL_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 221.58, "change_1d_pct": -18.242196147885757, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -22.160644579278255, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.093313902633572, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.78646862692483, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CAKE_CFD.US", "name": "The Cheesecake Factory", "sector": "", "last_price": 63.4, "change_1d_pct": 7.312119160460395, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.51488515140704, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.800549413401562, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.78886108879485, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AYV_CFD.FR", "name": "AYVENS", "sector": "", "last_price": 10.94, "change_1d_pct": 3.3050047214353118, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.492592486236992, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.95716991294981, "volatility_20d_pct": 60.38054675804281, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 8.21, "change_1d_pct": -2.226985828271999, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.776145168488431, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.527133633992166, "volatility_20d_pct": 78.848997519078, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR",
      "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -45.84, change_1d_pct: -40.65, volatility_20d_pct: 245.77",
      "mean_reversion_score": 100
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -24.62, change_1d_pct: -37.85, volatility_20d_pct: 213.49",
      "mean_reversion_score": 98
    },
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -25.14, change_1d_pct: -13.70, volatility_20d_pct: 146.49",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "THG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -18.26, change_1d_pct: -20.09, volatility_20d_pct: 150.35",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -17.53, change_1d_pct: -14.81, volatility_20d_pct: 137.80",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "|dist_ma50_pct| < 15%",
    "|change_1d_pct| < 10%",
    "low volatility_20d_pct < 70%",
    "insufficient short-term deviation signal"
  ]
}
#384openrouterx-ai/grok-4.1-fast2026-02-20T09:43:20.909843+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "EXPO_CFD.US", "qty": 44.90009728354411, "avg_price": 66.815, "last_price": 70.10499999999999, "unrealized_pnl": 147.72132006285977, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US", "qty": 58.85237861696911, "avg_price": 50.974999999999994, "last_price": 54.095, "unrealized_pnl": 183.6194212849439, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FLO_CFD.US", "qty": 303.7974683544304, "avg_price": 9.875, "last_price": 9.905000000000001, "unrealized_pnl": 9.113924050633258, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 400.6, "last_price": 400.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.7647058823529411, "avg_price": 1700.0, "last_price": 1719.0, "unrealized_pnl": 33.529411764705884, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LMND_CFD.US", "qty": 48.78048780487805, "avg_price": 61.5, "last_price": 61.55, "unrealized_pnl": 2.439024390243764, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LPX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 86.45, "last_price": 86.15, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAYC_CFD.US", "qty": 24.748391354561953, "avg_price": 121.22, "last_price": 119.79, "unrealized_pnl": -35.39019963702341, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.070469007777516, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 424.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "qty": 85.76329331046313, "avg_price": 34.98, "last_price": 34.98, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "qty": 15.290519877675841, "avg_price": 196.2, "last_price": 196.5, "unrealized_pnl": 4.587155963302926, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 22.338049143708115, "avg_price": 134.3, "last_price": 134.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "mean_reversion_score": 100, "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -45.84, change_1d_pct: -40.65, volatility_20d_pct: 245.77"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 98, "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -24.62, change_1d_pct: -37.85, volatility_20d_pct: 213.49"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 95, "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -25.14, change_1d_pct: -13.70, volatility_20d_pct: 146.49"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 92, "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -18.26, change_1d_pct: -20.09, volatility_20d_pct: 150.35"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 90, "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -17.53, change_1d_pct: -14.81, volatility_20d_pct: 137.80"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Top mean-reversion score (100); extremely oversold (dist_ma50_pct: -45.84, change_1d_pct: -40.65, volatility_20d_pct: 245.77).",
        "symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+147); stable hold.",
        "symbol": "EXPO_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+183); stable hold.",
        "symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Slight positive PnL (+9); stable hold.",
        "symbol": "FLO_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive PnL (+33); stable hold.",
        "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Slight positive PnL (+2); stable hold.",
        "symbol": "LMND_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat PnL; high mean-reversion score (90) in candidates; continue hold.",
        "symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat PnL; high mean-reversion score (92) in candidates; continue hold.",
        "symbol": "THG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Slight positive PnL (+4); stable hold.",
        "symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat PnL; high mean-reversion score (98) in candidates; continue hold.",
        "symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Unrealized loss (-35) and not among top mean-reversion candidates; clear underperformer.",
        "symbol": "PAYC_CFD.US"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Executed minimal trades to optimize mean-reversion exposure: sold losing PAYC (not in candidates) to free slot, bought top candidate BIG with strongest oversold signal. Held 9 positions (positive/stable PnL, several in candidates like TRST/THG/RMV). Maintains 10 positions, gross leverage within limits, adheres to max 2 buys/sells, avoids overtrading by limiting to 1 each."
}
Selection logs
#190stage12026-02-20T09:43:20.905230+00:00
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR",
      "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -45.84, change_1d_pct: -40.65, volatility_20d_pct: 245.77",
      "mean_reversion_score": 100
    },
    {
      "symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -24.62, change_1d_pct: -37.85, volatility_20d_pct: 213.49",
      "mean_reversion_score": 98
    },
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -25.14, change_1d_pct: -13.70, volatility_20d_pct: 146.49",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "THG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -18.26, change_1d_pct: -20.09, volatility_20d_pct: 150.35",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "dist_ma50_pct: -17.53, change_1d_pct: -14.81, volatility_20d_pct: 137.80",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "|dist_ma50_pct| < 15%",
    "|change_1d_pct| < 10%",
    "low volatility_20d_pct < 70%",
    "insufficient short-term deviation signal"
  ]
}