Arena run #185
meanrev-v1 • minimax • minimax/minimax-m2.1 • US • success
Run status
as_of: 2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00
started_at: 2026-02-19T17:40:31.682762+00:00
finished_at: 2026-02-19T17:41:13.248914+00:00
duration_ms: 41564
Inputs
{
"dry_run": false,
"selected": [
{
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Deeply oversold: -38% from MA200, -25% from MA50, high volatility (146%) supports mean-reversion play",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR",
"selection_reason": "Strong oversold signal: -23.6% from MA50, -10% from MA200, elevated volatility (174%) indicates mean-reversion potential",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
},
{
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Significant pullback: -28% from MA200, -14% from MA50, moderate volatility (88%) suitable for short-term reversion",
"mean_reversion_score": 78
},
{
"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Sharp decline: -37% from MA200, -17.5% from MA50, high volatility (138%) supports mean-reversion thesis",
"mean_reversion_score": 76
},
{
"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme oversold: -36.8% from MA200, -24.6% from MA50, elevated volatility (213%) suggests mean-reversion opportunity",
"mean_reversion_score": 74
}
],
"universe_symbols": [
"CNA_CFD.UK",
"FUTR_CFD.UK",
"ERA_CFD.FR",
"TNG_CFD.FR",
"LIO_CFD.UK",
"BYW6_CFD.DE",
"ATG_CFD.UK",
"EZJ_CFD.UK",
"BT_CFD.UK",
"LMND_CFD.US",
"INTC_CFD.US",
"BYIT_CFD.UK",
"LBTYA_CFD.US",
"WKP_CFD.UK",
"OCDO_CFD.UK",
"KMX_CFD.US",
"AAL_CFD.UK",
"SCCO_CFD.US",
"VLA_CFD.FR",
"AAF_CFD.UK",
"HBR_CFD.UK",
"SWKS_CFD.US",
"SVXY_CFD.ETF",
"PNN_CFD.UK",
"BNZL_CFD.UK",
"HMSO_CFD.UK",
"SSE_CFD.UK",
"MSLH_CFD.UK",
"PAGE_CFD.UK",
"IHG_CFD.UK",
"SNN_CFD.US",
"RMV_CFD.UK",
"NBA_CFD.PT",
"SEIC_CFD.US",
"GRMN_CFD.US",
"MTG_CFD.US",
"IPO_CFD.UK",
"TRST_CFD.UK",
"GRI_CFD.UK",
"WCH_CFD.DE",
"CCL_CFD.UK",
"USB_CFD.US",
"TSLA_CFD.US",
"LSS_CFD.FR",
"PAYC_CFD.US",
"THG_CFD.UK",
"ARCAD_CFD.NL",
"SCHW_CFD.US",
"SOP_CFD.FR",
"FTK_CFD.DE"
]
}Outputs
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Deeply oversold with highest mean-reversion score (85): -38% from MA200, -25% from MA50, high volatility (146%); adding second position to capitalize on strong reversion signal",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "Strong oversold signal (score 82): -23.6% from MA50, -10% from MA200, elevated volatility (174%); new position provides diversification with attractive mean-reversion potential",
"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Already at target position size with moderate volatility (88%); holding for mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Sharp decline captured but position size optimal; monitoring for reversal signals",
"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Extreme oversold conditions present; maintaining position for mean-reversion play",
"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": []
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Expanding mean-reversion exposure with two targeted additions: doubling FUTR_CFD.UK position to capitalize on highest-conviction signal (85) with extreme oversold conditions (-38% MA200), and initiating ERA_CFD.FR position for diversification with strong reversion score (82). Maintaining existing positions (BYIT, RMV, TRST) at target size. Post-trade exposure: 6 positions, ~1.5x gross leverage, well within portfolio constraints."
}Prompts & responses
#357 • openrouter • minimax/minimax-m2.1 • 2026-02-19T17:40:31.746328+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "CNA_CFD.UK", "name": "CENTRICA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 197.15, "change_1d_pct": 2.442192777344765, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 17.76955279230028, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.854901261534344, "volatility_20d_pct": 67.02546459903064, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 422.0, "change_1d_pct": -13.70143149284253, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -38.122509366851766, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -25.139370269544393, "volatility_20d_pct": 146.49494054552733, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR", "name": "Eramet", "sector": "", "last_price": 49.8, "change_1d_pct": -15.089514066496168, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.06713542516936, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -23.572368679526967, "volatility_20d_pct": 174.44715132358562, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TNG_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.834, "change_1d_pct": -2.3419203747072626, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -16.354919915351974, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.991706678306421, "volatility_20d_pct": 55.69713881756356, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 259.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.19342359767891004, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.670350849922237, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.35817197640911624, "volatility_20d_pct": 128.03912578370827, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYW6_CFD.DE", "name": "BayWa AG vNa", "sector": "", "last_price": 3.102, "change_1d_pct": -1.7421602787456525, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -53.90280654930854, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.7709286331211485, "volatility_20d_pct": 114.06567613652969, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 305.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.2735042735042805, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.344980756373573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1704016694101371, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.9931345477538, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "name": "EASYJET PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 487.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.6142050040355072, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.529174031700998, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.5931384801188377, "volatility_20d_pct": 77.17417093400987, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BT_CFD.UK", "name": "BT GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 209.7, "change_1d_pct": 3.35140463282404, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.419039464933654, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 11.273956800022077, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.28451509255954, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LMND_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 63.19, "change_1d_pct": 2.7479674796747844, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.573999623778896, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -19.354015325161956, "volatility_20d_pct": 158.94089547652058, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "INTC_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 45.48, "change_1d_pct": -2.508038585209005, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 43.861452690680466, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.53970807953108, "volatility_20d_pct": 151.29884173571352, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.4, "change_1d_pct": -12.674418604651173, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.03446775272175, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.34777426817815, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.82535981934274, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LBTYA_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 13.03, "change_1d_pct": 16.235504014272962, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 20.920779720944903, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.720398243680325, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.62857915005947, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 221.9, "change_1d_pct": -21.312056737588648, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.06664037160078, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.1767959417158487, "volatility_20d_pct": 240.9598068877464, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KMX_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 46.16, "change_1d_pct": 14.512527908707495, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.664462743492054, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.580958582122287, "volatility_20d_pct": 93.70050624898047, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AAL_CFD.UK", "name": "ANGLO AMERICAN PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3666.89, "change_1d_pct": 2.829220415030842, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 37.669118322985895, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.642339246388756, "volatility_20d_pct": 94.33787402361163, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SCCO_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 193.02, "change_1d_pct": -3.4127301841473168, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 54.78407653399786, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.439664603350465, "volatility_20d_pct": 128.8452433878162, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VLA_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 4.67, "change_1d_pct": 9.36768149882905, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 26.888381697641563, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 15.685118484351523, "volatility_20d_pct": 91.58043700669131, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AAF_CFD.UK", "name": "AIRTEL AFRICA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 359.6, "change_1d_pct": 12.164691203992506, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 42.47633054508688, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.039316718660536, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.14673389962711, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HBR_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 224.0, "change_1d_pct": -1.5817223198594021, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 9.25712713749498, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.344190568789498, "volatility_20d_pct": 121.81714824955505, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SWKS_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 61.51, "change_1d_pct": 1.4179719703215188, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -12.162451625801484, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.7804006207072334, "volatility_20d_pct": 83.01468486968557, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SVXY_CFD.ETF", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 53.02, "change_1d_pct": 0.3406510219530645, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.066907892141908, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.165208309498945, "volatility_20d_pct": 64.4160119667371, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PNN_CFD.UK", "name": "PENNON GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 555.5, "change_1d_pct": 7.728110152235046, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.15330418465657, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.049118953291236, "volatility_20d_pct": 59.72600720990832, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BNZL_CFD.UK", "name": "BUNZL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2150.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.2660902977905915, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -8.89817576647831, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.7743217653786383, "volatility_20d_pct": 67.68662202659726, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 355.4, "change_1d_pct": 14.129736673089276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.516025502913806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.006914897239172, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.54938293511039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SSE_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 2617.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.138479904496628, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 33.85019181699154, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.605809444292703, "volatility_20d_pct": 68.72921600243048, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 182.32, "change_1d_pct": 0.8407079646017612, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.111863069088763, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.139091576985178, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.4204512350097, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "name": "PAGEGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 209.6, "change_1d_pct": -10.960067969413767, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -19.313052268665963, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.41066281665177, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.6882126676479, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IHG_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 144.25, "change_1d_pct": 1.1216263582194186, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -98.11701487032192, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -96.80246670021214, "volatility_20d_pct": 600.119439684226, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SNN_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 36.26, "change_1d_pct": 1.7967434025828233, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 8.87205131939055, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.717901491295831, "volatility_20d_pct": 42.928516207876925, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "name": "RIGHTMOVE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 431.4, "change_1d_pct": -14.810426540284361, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.284210035093366, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.526388114623416, "volatility_20d_pct": 137.79982108268825, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NBA_CFD.PT", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 9.35, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.708731248338621, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.6344676180021898, "volatility_20d_pct": 94.6525400276936, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SEIC_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 81.3, "change_1d_pct": 5.790500975927126, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.544133661695248, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.4317941018563003, "volatility_20d_pct": 58.05808900688857, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GRMN_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 241.96, "change_1d_pct": 19.45102685624014, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.349083703254426, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 16.478905649005494, "volatility_20d_pct": 119.73222686415, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MTG_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 26.68, "change_1d_pct": -2.8404952658412252, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.551449948956397, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.234088070180475, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.51879572309846, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 58.6, "change_1d_pct": 0.5145797598627766, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.529572618060026, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.45525582659509123, "volatility_20d_pct": 90.16825025482643, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "name": "TRUSTPILOT AS", "sector": "", "last_price": 136.36, "change_1d_pct": -37.848678213309014, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -36.800807370149315, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -24.62483776319949, "volatility_20d_pct": 213.49310525124298, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GRI_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 192.4, "change_1d_pct": 0.08322929671245038, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.9312468607917275, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9128310349964197, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.43116862190418, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WCH_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 79.45, "change_1d_pct": -0.37617554858934144, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.50695260676516, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.699492607586825, "volatility_20d_pct": 91.55713440157228, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "name": "CARNIVAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2419.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.1556503198294283, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 29.618391987129257, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.778633621783047, "volatility_20d_pct": 140.95176391789954, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "USB_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 58.81, "change_1d_pct": 2.3672758920800785, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 20.617464613100168, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.638862743125661, "volatility_20d_pct": 46.625702747369814, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TSLA_CFD.US", "name": "TESLA INC", "sector": "", "last_price": 411.42, "change_1d_pct": -0.7813630444219344, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.276272327846111, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.789364626176453, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.94085803276403, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR", "name": "Lectra SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 19.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.1099899091826404, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -16.930849170156126, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.829415486445708, "volatility_20d_pct": 99.36209914356412, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAYC_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 122.97, "change_1d_pct": 4.009134737376296, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -38.69462474948401, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.02171592370614, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.76366620616925, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "name": "THG PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 35.48, "change_1d_pct": -20.090090090090097, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.031971945380275, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -18.256005234564732, "volatility_20d_pct": 150.3458448856807, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL", "name": "Arcadis", "sector": "", "last_price": 30.18, "change_1d_pct": -12.87528868360277, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -31.630019178934976, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -27.86403446081831, "volatility_20d_pct": 164.24924780474416, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SCHW_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 95.57, "change_1d_pct": 0.32542515221498647, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.0619595360899625, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.6901957655600235, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.40267538244248, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SOP_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 122.7, "change_1d_pct": 2.677824267782425, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -24.756731060780158, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.961114447400837, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.10727887578845, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FTK_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 30.926, "change_1d_pct": -7.18487394957984, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.918412215762589, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -16.266038224231348, "volatility_20d_pct": 94.14250043677973, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}Output JSON
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Deeply oversold: -38% from MA200, -25% from MA50, high volatility (146%) supports mean-reversion play",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR",
"selection_reason": "Strong oversold signal: -23.6% from MA50, -10% from MA200, elevated volatility (174%) indicates mean-reversion potential",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
},
{
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Significant pullback: -28% from MA200, -14% from MA50, moderate volatility (88%) suitable for short-term reversion",
"mean_reversion_score": 78
},
{
"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Sharp decline: -37% from MA200, -17.5% from MA50, high volatility (138%) supports mean-reversion thesis",
"mean_reversion_score": 76
},
{
"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme oversold: -36.8% from MA200, -24.6% from MA50, elevated volatility (213%) suggests mean-reversion opportunity",
"mean_reversion_score": 74
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Within 5 trading days of earnings (unknown dates)",
"Sector concentration avoided (sectors unknown)",
"Binary/event-driven moves avoided (no news data)",
"Excessive volatility (>200%) may indicate structural issues",
"Overbought stocks excluded (positive distance from MA50/200)"
]
}#358 • openrouter • minimax/minimax-m2.1 • 2026-02-19T17:40:39.227102+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DSY_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 17.881, "last_price": 17.133, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.488766849725412, "avg_price": 400.6, "last_price": 400.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.070469007777516, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 424.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 22.338049143708115, "avg_price": 134.3, "last_price": 134.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 85, "selection_reason": "Deeply oversold: -38% from MA200, -25% from MA50, high volatility (146%) supports mean-reversion play"}, {"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR", "mean_reversion_score": 82, "selection_reason": "Strong oversold signal: -23.6% from MA50, -10% from MA200, elevated volatility (174%) indicates mean-reversion potential"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 78, "selection_reason": "Significant pullback: -28% from MA200, -14% from MA50, moderate volatility (88%) suitable for short-term reversion"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 76, "selection_reason": "Sharp decline: -37% from MA200, -17.5% from MA50, high volatility (138%) supports mean-reversion thesis"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 74, "selection_reason": "Extreme oversold: -36.8% from MA200, -24.6% from MA50, elevated volatility (213%) suggests mean-reversion opportunity"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}Output JSON
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Deeply oversold with highest mean-reversion score (85): -38% from MA200, -25% from MA50, high volatility (146%); adding second position to capitalize on strong reversion signal",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "Strong oversold signal (score 82): -23.6% from MA50, -10% from MA200, elevated volatility (174%); new position provides diversification with attractive mean-reversion potential",
"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Already at target position size with moderate volatility (88%); holding for mean-reversion opportunity",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Sharp decline captured but position size optimal; monitoring for reversal signals",
"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Extreme oversold conditions present; maintaining position for mean-reversion play",
"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": []
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Expanding mean-reversion exposure with two targeted additions: doubling FUTR_CFD.UK position to capitalize on highest-conviction signal (85) with extreme oversold conditions (-38% MA200), and initiating ERA_CFD.FR position for diversification with strong reversion score (82). Maintaining existing positions (BYIT, RMV, TRST) at target size. Post-trade exposure: 6 positions, ~1.5x gross leverage, well within portfolio constraints."
}Selection logs
#177 • stage1 • 2026-02-19T17:40:39.223095+00:00
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Deeply oversold: -38% from MA200, -25% from MA50, high volatility (146%) supports mean-reversion play",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR",
"selection_reason": "Strong oversold signal: -23.6% from MA50, -10% from MA200, elevated volatility (174%) indicates mean-reversion potential",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
},
{
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Significant pullback: -28% from MA200, -14% from MA50, moderate volatility (88%) suitable for short-term reversion",
"mean_reversion_score": 78
},
{
"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Sharp decline: -37% from MA200, -17.5% from MA50, high volatility (138%) supports mean-reversion thesis",
"mean_reversion_score": 76
},
{
"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme oversold: -36.8% from MA200, -24.6% from MA50, elevated volatility (213%) suggests mean-reversion opportunity",
"mean_reversion_score": 74
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Within 5 trading days of earnings (unknown dates)",
"Sector concentration avoided (sectors unknown)",
"Binary/event-driven moves avoided (no news data)",
"Excessive volatility (>200%) may indicate structural issues",
"Overbought stocks excluded (positive distance from MA50/200)"
]
}