Arena run #162

You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).

{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "ADJ_CFD.DE", "name": "ADLER GROUP SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.2, "change_1d_pct": 6.951871657754016, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.955375825829345, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.7854866892794705, "volatility_20d_pct": 298.77615282737304, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BAYN_CFD.DE", "name": "BAYER AG-REG", "sector": "", "last_price": 49.637, "change_1d_pct": 9.044376098418262, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 61.93918561590361, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 21.232030246337665, "volatility_20d_pct": 53.99060764203541, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 422.0, "change_1d_pct": -13.70143149284253, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -38.122509366851766, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -25.139370269544393, "volatility_20d_pct": 146.49494054552733, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BNR_CFD.DE", "name": "BRENNTAG SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 57.68, "change_1d_pct": 0.7686932215233977, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 8.307035047033672, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.27447293480568, "volatility_20d_pct": 58.63952245969202, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LXS_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 20.34, "change_1d_pct": -2.3054755043227737, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.594450487957172, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.291317021464554, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.8118122160682, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "name": "WPP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 272.0, "change_1d_pct": -10.231023102310232, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -32.943328113842504, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.38287652170328, "volatility_20d_pct": 136.48646172830206, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 259.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.19342359767891004, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.670350849922237, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.35817197640911624, "volatility_20d_pct": 128.03912578370827, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "name": "Cable One Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 107.51, "change_1d_pct": -4.545858119506341, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -21.598626681553036, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.6297052540033663, "volatility_20d_pct": 128.50597545038758, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 305.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.2735042735042805, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.344980756373573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1704016694101371, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.9931345477538, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MAT_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 17.29, "change_1d_pct": 6.728395061728398, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -9.237177585939904, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.311520376175558, "volatility_20d_pct": 181.34348511232562, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.4, "change_1d_pct": -12.674418604651173, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.03446775272175, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.34777426817815, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.82535981934274, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, 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35.612338498434745, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "name": "TRUSTPILOT AS", "sector": "", "last_price": 136.36, "change_1d_pct": -37.848678213309014, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -36.800807370149315, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -24.62483776319949, "volatility_20d_pct": 213.49310525124298, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TER_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 310.04, "change_1d_pct": -3.0640320160079892, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 112.42272835494687, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 34.06416261355068, "volatility_20d_pct": 116.57004161394451, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BFAM_CFD.US", "name": "Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 69.02, "change_1d_pct": -14.674248980096438, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -36.75340241403705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -27.77040574990267, "volatility_20d_pct": 131.01677442530624, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GRI_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 192.4, "change_1d_pct": 0.08322929671245038, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.9312468607917275, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9128310349964197, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.43116862190418, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "name": "CARNIVAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2419.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.1556503198294283, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 29.618391987129257, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.778633621783047, "volatility_20d_pct": 140.95176391789954, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BCPC_CFD.US", "name": "Balchem Corporation", "sector": "", "last_price": 182.18, "change_1d_pct": 3.481965350752625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 14.703744430638332, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 11.917513512052436, "volatility_20d_pct": 41.819877123461296, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOSS_CFD.DE", "name": "Hugo Boss AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 37.01, "change_1d_pct": 0.732152091668703, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.490175549253773, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.61200230684382, "volatility_20d_pct": 35.60794350998581, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 35.48, "change_1d_pct": -20.090090090090097, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.031971945380275, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -18.256005234564732, "volatility_20d_pct": 150.3458448856807, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FLEX_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 65.22, "change_1d_pct": 0.5550416281220993, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 17.70555383603338, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.6305770597255131, "volatility_20d_pct": 111.33213337615535, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 202.0, "change_1d_pct": 8.58463688652369, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.069225606016771, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.253653245130858, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.7523831897994, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Sharp 1D selloff (-13.7%) with deep technical oversold: -25.1% vs MA50 and -38.1% vs MA200 (bounce setup over 2-10 days).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 84
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Large downside day (-14.8%) and materially below trend: -17.5% vs MA50 and -37.3% vs MA200; volatility elevated but typical for mean-reversion candidate.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 81
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down hard on the day (-12.7%) while trading well below MA200 (-28.0%) and below MA50 (-14.3%), consistent with short-term reversion potential.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 77
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Strong 1D drawdown (-10.2%) with price depressed vs MA50 (-12.4%) and MA200 (-32.9%), supportive of a 2-10 day rebound scenario.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 74
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Meaningful 1D drop (-11.0%) and below longer trend (-19.3% vs MA200, -8.4% vs MA50), moderate oversold versus peers selected.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 69
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Non-EU region symbols present in input (e.g., *.US) excluded for EU scan",
    "Extreme volatility/penny-price profiles (e.g., very high 20D vol or sub-€1/£1 prices) increase binary/event risk for mean-reversion",
    "Apparent data anomalies/outlier technicals (e.g., ~-98% distances to MAs) suggest low reliability",
    "Names extended far above MA50/MA200 (momentum/upside extension) are not aligned with mean-reversion long-bounce setups",
    "Earnings/news timing and sector classification mostly unknown; cannot verify 'earnings within 5 trading days' or sector concentration constraints"
  ]
}

You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.

{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DSY_CFD.FR", "qty": 167.77585146244618, "avg_price": 17.881, "last_price": 16.595, "unrealized_pnl": -215.75974498070602, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US", "qty": 58.85237861696911, "avg_price": 50.974999999999994, "last_price": 52.82, "unrealized_pnl": 108.58263854830837, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MLCO_CFD.US", "qty": 544.464609800363, "avg_price": 5.51, "last_price": 5.62, "unrealized_pnl": 59.8911070780401, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 84, "selection_reason": "Sharp 1D selloff (-13.7%) with deep technical oversold: -25.1% vs MA50 and -38.1% vs MA200 (bounce setup over 2-10 days)."}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 81, "selection_reason": "Large downside day (-14.8%) and materially below trend: -17.5% vs MA50 and -37.3% vs MA200; volatility elevated but typical for mean-reversion candidate."}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 77, "selection_reason": "Down hard on the day (-12.7%) while trading well below MA200 (-28.0%) and below MA50 (-14.3%), consistent with short-term reversion potential."}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 74, "selection_reason": "Strong 1D drawdown (-10.2%) with price depressed vs MA50 (-12.4%) and MA200 (-32.9%), supportive of a 2-10 day rebound scenario."}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 69, "selection_reason": "Meaningful 1D drop (-11.0%) and below longer trend (-19.3% vs MA200, -8.4% vs MA50), moderate oversold versus peers selected."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}

{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Top mean-reversion score (84) with sharp 1D selloff and deep technical oversold vs MA50/MA200; fits 2–10 day bounce profile.",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Second-highest score (81) with large downside day and materially below MA50/MA200; diversified addition versus current holdings while staying within leverage/position limits.",
        "symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Already in portfolio at fixed size; remains a mean-reversion setup per candidate list. Avoid adding/churning without a clearer edge than new top-scoring candidates.",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position is recently opened and underwater, but no new risk event or superior replacement signal provided; avoid overtrading and allow the mean-reversion window to play out.",
        "symbol": "DSY_CFD.FR"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position is profitable and no counter-signal or higher-priority replacement is indicated; keep exposure stable.",
        "symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position is modestly profitable with no new information suggesting an exit; avoid unnecessary churn.",
        "symbol": "MLCO_CFD.US"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Add up to the allowed two new mean-reversion positions, prioritizing the highest-scoring oversold UK candidates (FUTR, RMV) while holding existing positions to avoid overtrading. No sells are taken because there is no stated risk event or clear improvement that justifies rotating out of current holdings, and leverage/position count remain within constraints after the two buys."
}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Sharp 1D selloff (-13.7%) with deep technical oversold: -25.1% vs MA50 and -38.1% vs MA200 (bounce setup over 2-10 days).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 84
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Large downside day (-14.8%) and materially below trend: -17.5% vs MA50 and -37.3% vs MA200; volatility elevated but typical for mean-reversion candidate.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 81
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Down hard on the day (-12.7%) while trading well below MA200 (-28.0%) and below MA50 (-14.3%), consistent with short-term reversion potential.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 77
    },
    {
      "symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Strong 1D drawdown (-10.2%) with price depressed vs MA50 (-12.4%) and MA200 (-32.9%), supportive of a 2-10 day rebound scenario.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 74
    },
    {
      "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Meaningful 1D drop (-11.0%) and below longer trend (-19.3% vs MA200, -8.4% vs MA50), moderate oversold versus peers selected.",
      "mean_reversion_score": 69
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Non-EU region symbols present in input (e.g., *.US) excluded for EU scan",
    "Extreme volatility/penny-price profiles (e.g., very high 20D vol or sub-€1/£1 prices) increase binary/event risk for mean-reversion",
    "Apparent data anomalies/outlier technicals (e.g., ~-98% distances to MAs) suggest low reliability",
    "Names extended far above MA50/MA200 (momentum/upside extension) are not aligned with mean-reversion long-bounce setups",
    "Earnings/news timing and sector classification mostly unknown; cannot verify 'earnings within 5 trading days' or sector concentration constraints"
  ]
}