Arena run #161
meanrev-v1 • anthropic • anthropic/claude-opus-4.6 • EU • success
Run status
as_of: 2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00
started_at: 2026-02-18T09:43:51.509770+00:00
finished_at: 2026-02-18T09:44:21.993927+00:00
duration_ms: 30482
Inputs
{
"dry_run": false,
"selected": [
{
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Sharp -12.7% 1d drop, -28% below MA200, -14.3% below MA50; moderate volatility (88%) relative to peers suggests oversold bounce likely within 2-10 days.",
"mean_reversion_score": 78
},
{
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "-11% 1d drop, -19.3% below MA200, -8.4% below MA50; volatility 113% is manageable; extended downside supports short-term reversion.",
"mean_reversion_score": 74
},
{
"symbol": "AAD_CFD.DE",
"selection_reason": "-3.95% 1d drop, deeply oversold at -42.4% below MA200 and -17.2% below MA50; lowest volatility among deeply oversold names (57%) improves risk/reward.",
"mean_reversion_score": 72
},
{
"symbol": "FTK_CFD.DE",
"selection_reason": "-4.3% 1d drop, -9.9% below MA50 while still +10.9% above MA200 (mean anchor); moderate volatility (87%) and divergence between MAs suggests snap-back toward MA50.",
"mean_reversion_score": 70
},
{
"symbol": "NA9_CFD.DE",
"selection_reason": "-2.4% 1d drop, -17.1% below MA50 with only -2.1% below MA200; volatility 86% is moderate; large MA50 gap with price near MA200 suggests reversion toward MA50.",
"mean_reversion_score": 68
}
],
"universe_symbols": [
"ADJ_CFD.DE",
"BAYN_CFD.DE",
"FUTR_CFD.UK",
"BNR_CFD.DE",
"LXS_CFD.DE",
"WPP_CFD.UK",
"LIO_CFD.UK",
"CABO_CFD.US",
"ATG_CFD.UK",
"MAT_CFD.US",
"BYIT_CFD.UK",
"WKP_CFD.UK",
"DHER_CFD.DE",
"PUM_CFD.DE",
"OCDO_CFD.UK",
"BAS_CFD.DE",
"FTK_CFD.DE",
"TREE_CFD.US",
"HFG_CFD.DE",
"PNN_CFD.UK",
"HMSO_CFD.UK",
"AHT_CFD.UK",
"MSLH_CFD.UK",
"PAGE_CFD.UK",
"IHG_CFD.UK",
"TRN_CFD.UK",
"AAD_CFD.DE",
"HHFA_CFD.DE",
"RMV_CFD.UK",
"GLW_CFD.US",
"LDOS_CFD.US",
"TTEK_CFD.US",
"SGL_CFD.DE",
"AGFB_CFD.BE",
"RAA_CFD.DE",
"ASY_CFD.FR",
"NA9_CFD.DE",
"IPO_CFD.UK",
"GXI_CFD.DE",
"FPE3_CFD.DE",
"TRST_CFD.UK",
"TER_CFD.US",
"BFAM_CFD.US",
"GRI_CFD.UK",
"CCL_CFD.UK",
"BCPC_CFD.US",
"BOSS_CFD.DE",
"THG_CFD.UK",
"FLEX_CFD.US",
"DOM_CFD.UK"
]
}Outputs
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Highest mean-reversion score (78). Sharp -12.7% 1-day drop with price -28% below MA200 and -14.3% below MA50 signals deep oversold condition. Moderate volatility (88%) improves risk/reward for a bounce within 2-10 days.",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "Second highest score (74). -11% 1-day drop, -19.3% below MA200, -8.4% below MA50. Extended downside with manageable volatility (113%) supports a short-term mean-reversion trade.",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Slight positive PnL (+33.5). Position is performing in line with mean-reversion thesis. No reason to exit yet; hold for further reversion.",
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Small positive PnL (+12.8). Still early in the position; mean-reversion thesis intact. Hold.",
"symbol": "SGE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Healthy unrealized gain (+76.9). Position trending favorably. Continue holding for further mean-reversion upside before taking profit.",
"symbol": "STZ_CFD.US"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Position qty is 0 (effectively closed/empty). No exposure to manage; removing from portfolio tracking.",
"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio currently holds 3 active positions (ICG, SGE, STZ) all showing positive unrealized PnL — no reason to exit. LSS has zero quantity and is cleaned up. Adding BYIT and PAGE as the two highest-scoring mean-reversion candidates with sharp recent drops and significant deviations below moving averages. After these trades, gross exposure will be approximately 5 positions × ~$3,000 = ~$15,000, well within the 3.0x leverage limit ($30,000). No overtrading: 1 sell (cleanup), 2 buys (max allowed), remaining positions held."
}Prompts & responses
#309 • openrouter • anthropic/claude-opus-4.6 • 2026-02-18T09:43:51.575439+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "ADJ_CFD.DE", "name": "ADLER GROUP SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.2, "change_1d_pct": 6.951871657754016, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.955375825829345, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.7854866892794705, "volatility_20d_pct": 298.77615282737304, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BAYN_CFD.DE", "name": "BAYER AG-REG", "sector": "", "last_price": 49.637, "change_1d_pct": 9.044376098418262, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 61.93918561590361, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 21.232030246337665, "volatility_20d_pct": 53.99060764203541, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 422.0, "change_1d_pct": -13.70143149284253, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -38.122509366851766, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -25.139370269544393, "volatility_20d_pct": 146.49494054552733, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BNR_CFD.DE", "name": "BRENNTAG SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 57.68, "change_1d_pct": 0.7686932215233977, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 8.307035047033672, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.27447293480568, "volatility_20d_pct": 58.63952245969202, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LXS_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 20.34, "change_1d_pct": -2.3054755043227737, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.594450487957172, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.291317021464554, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.8118122160682, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "name": "WPP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 272.0, "change_1d_pct": -10.231023102310232, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -32.943328113842504, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.38287652170328, "volatility_20d_pct": 136.48646172830206, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 259.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.19342359767891004, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.670350849922237, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.35817197640911624, "volatility_20d_pct": 128.03912578370827, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "name": "Cable One Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 107.51, "change_1d_pct": -4.545858119506341, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -21.598626681553036, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.6297052540033663, "volatility_20d_pct": 128.50597545038758, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 305.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.2735042735042805, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.344980756373573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1704016694101371, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.9931345477538, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MAT_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 17.29, "change_1d_pct": 6.728395061728398, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -9.237177585939904, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.311520376175558, "volatility_20d_pct": 181.34348511232562, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.4, "change_1d_pct": -12.674418604651173, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.03446775272175, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.34777426817815, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.82535981934274, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DHER_CFD.DE", "name": "DELIVERY HERO SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 20.778, "change_1d_pct": 4.025232802643419, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.028363616432824, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.573037463344836, "volatility_20d_pct": 120.72903733861568, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PUM_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 23.61, "change_1d_pct": 2.965547317924111, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.00067551445121, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.826129596444307, "volatility_20d_pct": 109.40924417684667, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 221.9, "change_1d_pct": -21.312056737588648, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.06664037160078, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.1767959417158487, "volatility_20d_pct": 240.9598068877464, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BAS_CFD.DE", "name": "BASF SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 50.838, "change_1d_pct": 0.390995260663507, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.215281900437994, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.57041703042807, "volatility_20d_pct": 51.4553906746837, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FTK_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 33.278, "change_1d_pct": -4.263521288837746, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.871637377315047, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.920737395047851, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.11061082207468, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TREE_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 39.35, "change_1d_pct": -8.679508006498027, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -25.01948350142815, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -27.563177426955697, "volatility_20d_pct": 152.47471741995676, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HFG_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 5.033, "change_1d_pct": -1.5068493150684925, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -32.91913710526018, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.644710971293726, "volatility_20d_pct": 124.36499030028038, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PNN_CFD.UK", "name": "PENNON GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 555.5, "change_1d_pct": 7.728110152235046, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.15330418465657, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.049118953291236, "volatility_20d_pct": 59.72600720990832, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 355.4, "change_1d_pct": 14.129736673089276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.516025502913806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.006914897239172, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.54938293511039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AHT_CFD.UK", "name": "ASHTEAD GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 5198.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.3228346456692917, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.779696268812253, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.672375508284831, "volatility_20d_pct": 97.25825889483464, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 182.32, "change_1d_pct": 0.8407079646017612, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.111863069088763, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.139091576985178, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.4204512350097, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 209.6, "change_1d_pct": -10.960067969413767, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -19.313052268665963, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.41066281665177, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.6882126676479, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IHG_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 144.25, "change_1d_pct": 1.1216263582194186, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -98.11701487032192, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -96.80246670021214, "volatility_20d_pct": 600.119439684226, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "name": "TRAINLINE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 199.8, "change_1d_pct": -20.016012810248196, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -25.35041032988915, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -16.85476299862173, "volatility_20d_pct": 127.36929363239284, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AAD_CFD.DE", "name": "AMADEUS FIRE AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 33.233, "change_1d_pct": -3.9508670520231326, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -42.351909561555004, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.200054812950803, "volatility_20d_pct": 57.34841695059528, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HHFA_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 23.2, "change_1d_pct": 1.754385964912264, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.775906011004402, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.208496046814769, "volatility_20d_pct": 75.99748253783302, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 431.4, "change_1d_pct": -14.810426540284361, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.284210035093366, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.526388114623416, "volatility_20d_pct": 137.79982108268825, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GLW_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 132.55, "change_1d_pct": 0.6836308393467494, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 77.49312222520537, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 34.840124677523065, "volatility_20d_pct": 127.7304649757927, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LDOS_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 164.73, "change_1d_pct": -10.263114888053604, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.771581886419575, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.270517610869447, "volatility_20d_pct": 67.10358169719632, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TTEK_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 36.08, "change_1d_pct": -14.421252371916504, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.9327097206173427, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.2504796713352908, "volatility_20d_pct": 80.52865134631814, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SGL_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 4.44, "change_1d_pct": -2.631578947368418, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 29.465691591728206, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 21.9988019937462, "volatility_20d_pct": 68.95035726072665, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AGFB_CFD.BE", "name": "Agfa-Gevaert", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.508, "change_1d_pct": 5.613305613305619, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -38.91697879529371, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.663594842569017, "volatility_20d_pct": 108.04930999009098, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RAA_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 741.655, "change_1d_pct": -0.9806408544726364, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 9.452363554100662, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.801418666515072, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.52356429710602, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ASY_CFD.FR", "name": "Assystem SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 44.9, "change_1d_pct": 2.0454545454545503, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 3.1294387002291257, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.45565252098940245, "volatility_20d_pct": 66.92772549537254, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NA9_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 58.45, "change_1d_pct": -2.432103093127669, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.1090434914697975, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.075943113955105, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.29050844040258, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 58.6, "change_1d_pct": 0.5145797598627766, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.529572618060026, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.45525582659509123, "volatility_20d_pct": 90.16825025482643, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GXI_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 21.24, "change_1d_pct": 10.274648252946372, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -43.677262227025984, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.569367472965546, "volatility_20d_pct": 208.2327389098102, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FPE3_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 37.307, "change_1d_pct": 0.34158149542764527, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -9.03604837008799, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.05519480008044, "volatility_20d_pct": 35.612338498434745, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "name": "TRUSTPILOT AS", "sector": "", "last_price": 136.36, "change_1d_pct": -37.848678213309014, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -36.800807370149315, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -24.62483776319949, "volatility_20d_pct": 213.49310525124298, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TER_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 310.04, "change_1d_pct": -3.0640320160079892, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 112.42272835494687, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 34.06416261355068, "volatility_20d_pct": 116.57004161394451, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BFAM_CFD.US", "name": "Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 69.02, "change_1d_pct": -14.674248980096438, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -36.75340241403705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -27.77040574990267, "volatility_20d_pct": 131.01677442530624, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GRI_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 192.4, "change_1d_pct": 0.08322929671245038, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.9312468607917275, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9128310349964197, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.43116862190418, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "name": "CARNIVAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2419.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.1556503198294283, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 29.618391987129257, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.778633621783047, "volatility_20d_pct": 140.95176391789954, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BCPC_CFD.US", "name": "Balchem Corporation", "sector": "", "last_price": 182.18, "change_1d_pct": 3.481965350752625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 14.703744430638332, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 11.917513512052436, "volatility_20d_pct": 41.819877123461296, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOSS_CFD.DE", "name": "Hugo Boss AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 37.01, "change_1d_pct": 0.732152091668703, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.490175549253773, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.61200230684382, "volatility_20d_pct": 35.60794350998581, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 35.48, "change_1d_pct": -20.090090090090097, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.031971945380275, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -18.256005234564732, "volatility_20d_pct": 150.3458448856807, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FLEX_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 65.22, "change_1d_pct": 0.5550416281220993, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 17.70555383603338, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.6305770597255131, "volatility_20d_pct": 111.33213337615535, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 202.0, "change_1d_pct": 8.58463688652369, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.069225606016771, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.253653245130858, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.7523831897994, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}Output JSON
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Sharp -12.7% 1d drop, -28% below MA200, -14.3% below MA50; moderate volatility (88%) relative to peers suggests oversold bounce likely within 2-10 days.",
"mean_reversion_score": 78
},
{
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "-11% 1d drop, -19.3% below MA200, -8.4% below MA50; volatility 113% is manageable; extended downside supports short-term reversion.",
"mean_reversion_score": 74
},
{
"symbol": "AAD_CFD.DE",
"selection_reason": "-3.95% 1d drop, deeply oversold at -42.4% below MA200 and -17.2% below MA50; lowest volatility among deeply oversold names (57%) improves risk/reward.",
"mean_reversion_score": 72
},
{
"symbol": "FTK_CFD.DE",
"selection_reason": "-4.3% 1d drop, -9.9% below MA50 while still +10.9% above MA200 (mean anchor); moderate volatility (87%) and divergence between MAs suggests snap-back toward MA50.",
"mean_reversion_score": 70
},
{
"symbol": "NA9_CFD.DE",
"selection_reason": "-2.4% 1d drop, -17.1% below MA50 with only -2.1% below MA200; volatility 86% is moderate; large MA50 gap with price near MA200 suggests reversion toward MA50.",
"mean_reversion_score": 68
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Extreme volatility >200% (ADJ, OCDO, GXI, TRST, ADJ) — too risky for controlled mean-reversion",
"Large 1d gains >+5% already bouncing — missed entry (BAYN, HMSO, GXI, DOM, PNN) — chasing momentum not mean-reversion",
"Massive drops >-20% (TRST -37.8%, OCDO -21.3%, THG -20%, TRN -20%) likely event/binary driven — avoid",
"IHG_CFD.UK has 600% volatility and -98% from MA200 — likely data issue or corporate action, excluded",
"US-listed symbols (CABO, MAT, TREE, LDOS, TTEK, etc.) deprioritized for EU-region scan",
"Stocks near or above both MA50 and MA200 (BNR, WKP, AHT, HHFA, BAS, SGL, CCL, BCPC) — no mean-reversion setup",
"Sector concentration avoided — selected mix of DE and UK names across likely different sectors"
]
}#310 • openrouter • anthropic/claude-opus-4.6 • 2026-02-18T09:44:09.578032+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.7647058823529411, "avg_price": 1700.0, "last_price": 1719.0, "unrealized_pnl": 33.529411764705884, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 20.15, "last_price": 19.78, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 3.771687201408097, "avg_price": 795.4, "last_price": 798.8, "unrealized_pnl": 12.823736484787444, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "STZ_CFD.US", "qty": 20.124773596297043, "avg_price": 149.07, "last_price": 152.89, "unrealized_pnl": 76.87663513785456, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 78, "selection_reason": "Sharp -12.7% 1d drop, -28% below MA200, -14.3% below MA50; moderate volatility (88%) relative to peers suggests oversold bounce likely within 2-10 days."}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 74, "selection_reason": "-11% 1d drop, -19.3% below MA200, -8.4% below MA50; volatility 113% is manageable; extended downside supports short-term reversion."}, {"symbol": "AAD_CFD.DE", "mean_reversion_score": 72, "selection_reason": "-3.95% 1d drop, deeply oversold at -42.4% below MA200 and -17.2% below MA50; lowest volatility among deeply oversold names (57%) improves risk/reward."}, {"symbol": "FTK_CFD.DE", "mean_reversion_score": 70, "selection_reason": "-4.3% 1d drop, -9.9% below MA50 while still +10.9% above MA200 (mean anchor); moderate volatility (87%) and divergence between MAs suggests snap-back toward MA50."}, {"symbol": "NA9_CFD.DE", "mean_reversion_score": 68, "selection_reason": "-2.4% 1d drop, -17.1% below MA50 with only -2.1% below MA200; volatility 86% is moderate; large MA50 gap with price near MA200 suggests reversion toward MA50."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}Output JSON
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Highest mean-reversion score (78). Sharp -12.7% 1-day drop with price -28% below MA200 and -14.3% below MA50 signals deep oversold condition. Moderate volatility (88%) improves risk/reward for a bounce within 2-10 days.",
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "Second highest score (74). -11% 1-day drop, -19.3% below MA200, -8.4% below MA50. Extended downside with manageable volatility (113%) supports a short-term mean-reversion trade.",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Slight positive PnL (+33.5). Position is performing in line with mean-reversion thesis. No reason to exit yet; hold for further reversion.",
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Small positive PnL (+12.8). Still early in the position; mean-reversion thesis intact. Hold.",
"symbol": "SGE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Healthy unrealized gain (+76.9). Position trending favorably. Continue holding for further mean-reversion upside before taking profit.",
"symbol": "STZ_CFD.US"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Position qty is 0 (effectively closed/empty). No exposure to manage; removing from portfolio tracking.",
"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio currently holds 3 active positions (ICG, SGE, STZ) all showing positive unrealized PnL — no reason to exit. LSS has zero quantity and is cleaned up. Adding BYIT and PAGE as the two highest-scoring mean-reversion candidates with sharp recent drops and significant deviations below moving averages. After these trades, gross exposure will be approximately 5 positions × ~$3,000 = ~$15,000, well within the 3.0x leverage limit ($30,000). No overtrading: 1 sell (cleanup), 2 buys (max allowed), remaining positions held."
}Selection logs
#153 • stage1 • 2026-02-18T09:44:09.573133+00:00
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Sharp -12.7% 1d drop, -28% below MA200, -14.3% below MA50; moderate volatility (88%) relative to peers suggests oversold bounce likely within 2-10 days.",
"mean_reversion_score": 78
},
{
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "-11% 1d drop, -19.3% below MA200, -8.4% below MA50; volatility 113% is manageable; extended downside supports short-term reversion.",
"mean_reversion_score": 74
},
{
"symbol": "AAD_CFD.DE",
"selection_reason": "-3.95% 1d drop, deeply oversold at -42.4% below MA200 and -17.2% below MA50; lowest volatility among deeply oversold names (57%) improves risk/reward.",
"mean_reversion_score": 72
},
{
"symbol": "FTK_CFD.DE",
"selection_reason": "-4.3% 1d drop, -9.9% below MA50 while still +10.9% above MA200 (mean anchor); moderate volatility (87%) and divergence between MAs suggests snap-back toward MA50.",
"mean_reversion_score": 70
},
{
"symbol": "NA9_CFD.DE",
"selection_reason": "-2.4% 1d drop, -17.1% below MA50 with only -2.1% below MA200; volatility 86% is moderate; large MA50 gap with price near MA200 suggests reversion toward MA50.",
"mean_reversion_score": 68
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Extreme volatility >200% (ADJ, OCDO, GXI, TRST, ADJ) — too risky for controlled mean-reversion",
"Large 1d gains >+5% already bouncing — missed entry (BAYN, HMSO, GXI, DOM, PNN) — chasing momentum not mean-reversion",
"Massive drops >-20% (TRST -37.8%, OCDO -21.3%, THG -20%, TRN -20%) likely event/binary driven — avoid",
"IHG_CFD.UK has 600% volatility and -98% from MA200 — likely data issue or corporate action, excluded",
"US-listed symbols (CABO, MAT, TREE, LDOS, TTEK, etc.) deprioritized for EU-region scan",
"Stocks near or above both MA50 and MA200 (BNR, WKP, AHT, HHFA, BAS, SGL, CCL, BCPC) — no mean-reversion setup",
"Sector concentration avoided — selected mix of DE and UK names across likely different sectors"
]
}