Arena run #151

You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).

{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "DSY_CFD.FR", "name": "Dassault Systemes SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 17.881, "change_1d_pct": -1.6554834451655398, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -34.637393069757884, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.617996627925898, "volatility_20d_pct": 136.7518220483471, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "STJ_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 1259.5, "change_1d_pct": -16.31229235880398, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 3.984805916838674, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.856288619388774, "volatility_20d_pct": 114.10557212783831, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ADJ_CFD.DE", "name": "ADLER GROUP SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.191, "change_1d_pct": 2.6881720430107503, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.353890922744768, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.2217671751817214, "volatility_20d_pct": 297.6392875048661, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "name": "WPP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 272.0, "change_1d_pct": -10.231023102310232, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -32.943328113842504, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.38287652170328, "volatility_20d_pct": 136.48646172830206, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 259.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.19342359767891004, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.670350849922237, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.35817197640911624, "volatility_20d_pct": 128.03912578370827, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ASHM_CFD.UK", "name": "ASHMORE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 248.6, "change_1d_pct": 1.6353229762878119, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 43.336936936936944, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 28.576053821956805, "volatility_20d_pct": 132.08268219135377, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AGFB_CFD.BE", "name": "Agfa-Gevaert", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.507, "change_1d_pct": 5.625000000000013, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -39.187122543345666, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.106577516413588, "volatility_20d_pct": 106.32952329819774, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 305.0, "change_1d_pct": 4.2735042735042805, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -30.344980756373573, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.1704016694101371, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.9931345477538, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BDT_CFD.DE", "name": "Bertrandt AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 18.5, "change_1d_pct": 1.5367727771679496, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.301443211829781, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.5046832714490357, "volatility_20d_pct": 91.66308663622284, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RIVN_CFD.US", "name": "Rivian Automotive Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 18.26, "change_1d_pct": 18.88020833333335, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.82483671561275, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.91531982699751, "volatility_20d_pct": 153.53412458433212, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.4, "change_1d_pct": -12.674418604651173, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.03446775272175, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.34777426817815, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.82535981934274, "market_cap_usd": null, 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{"symbol": "MLCO_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 5.6, "change_1d_pct": -11.251980982567355, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.984478035913565, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -21.29525522824376, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.89345949241407, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NBA_CFD.PT", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 9.35, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.964938046554229, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.0303030303030276, "volatility_20d_pct": 97.57816744330586, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 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-6.418653320384616, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.0707901518890175, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.11453378932266, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "name": "CARNIVAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2419.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.1556503198294283, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 29.618391987129257, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.778633621783047, "volatility_20d_pct": 140.95176391789954, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ROL_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 58.99, "change_1d_pct": -9.09231006318385, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.258478616677694, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.9263332073849133, "volatility_20d_pct": 83.28245881827783, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SLG_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 41.01, "change_1d_pct": -4.9374130737134925, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -24.119351508176468, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.030815506242062, "volatility_20d_pct": 79.18887615180597, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 35.48, "change_1d_pct": -20.090090090090097, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.031971945380275, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -18.256005234564732, "volatility_20d_pct": 150.3458448856807, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BWA_CFD.US", "name": "BorgWarner Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 63.55, "change_1d_pct": 18.144636549544522, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 54.4331174590831, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 32.506255212677225, "volatility_20d_pct": 113.21748549891599, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 8.534, "change_1d_pct": -0.04684937924571697, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.146713405768912, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.794557301648127, "volatility_20d_pct": 80.23995626589594, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "STM_CFD.DE", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 20.529, "change_1d_pct": -2.2428571428571464, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.037017423813344, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.2009434825404526, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.92498526556909, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VNO_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 30.29, "change_1d_pct": -5.99006828057107, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -18.47303136863837, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.35597456114342, "volatility_20d_pct": 69.4164862413663, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AAD_CFD.DE", "name": "AMADEUS FIRE AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 33.65, "change_1d_pct": -6.397774687065382, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -42.05025009665467, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.03738914074897, "volatility_20d_pct": 59.72214573060599, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 202.0, "change_1d_pct": 8.58463688652369, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.069225606016771, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.253653245130858, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.7523831897994, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "MLCO_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Large 1d selloff (-11.25%) with deep downside vs MA200 (-28.98%) and MA50 (-21.30%) suggests oversold mean-reversion setup",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Very sharp 1d drop (-18.70%) while still below MA50 (-5.65%) and MA200 (-3.28%); high short-term snapback potential",
      "mean_reversion_score": 85
    },
    {
      "symbol": "EXPO_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Down -11.74% on the day and trading below MA50 (-7.07%) and MA200 (-6.42%)—classic short-horizon mean-reversion profile",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VNO_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Moderate 1d decline (-5.99%) with price meaningfully below MA200 (-18.47%) and MA50 (-8.36%)—oversold drift with rebound potential",
      "mean_reversion_score": 75
    },
    {
      "symbol": "J_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Down -11.17% and slightly below key averages (MA200 -4.12%, MA50 -2.31%); supports 2-10 day mean-reversion bounce thesis",
      "mean_reversion_score": 72
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Non-US symbols excluded for US region run",
    "Overbought/extended above moving averages (less attractive for long mean-reversion)",
    "Insufficient oversold signal (small 1d move and/or near moving averages)",
    "Possible liquidity/quality concerns inferred from very low absolute price with no volume data",
    "Earnings/news timing unknown (days_to_next_earnings and sentiment unavailable), so no positive confirmation for avoiding event risk"
  ]
}

You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.

{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DSY_CFD.FR", "qty": 167.77585146244618, "avg_price": 17.881, "last_price": 16.752, "unrealized_pnl": -189.41893630110198, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "MLCO_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 88, "selection_reason": "Large 1d selloff (-11.25%) with deep downside vs MA200 (-28.98%) and MA50 (-21.30%) suggests oversold mean-reversion setup"}, {"symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 85, "selection_reason": "Very sharp 1d drop (-18.70%) while still below MA50 (-5.65%) and MA200 (-3.28%); high short-term snapback potential"}, {"symbol": "EXPO_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 78, "selection_reason": "Down -11.74% on the day and trading below MA50 (-7.07%) and MA200 (-6.42%)—classic short-horizon mean-reversion profile"}, {"symbol": "VNO_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 75, "selection_reason": "Moderate 1d decline (-5.99%) with price meaningfully below MA200 (-18.47%) and MA50 (-8.36%)—oversold drift with rebound potential"}, {"symbol": "J_CFD.US", "mean_reversion_score": 72, "selection_reason": "Down -11.17% and slightly below key averages (MA200 -4.12%, MA50 -2.31%); supports 2-10 day mean-reversion bounce thesis"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}

{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Highest mean-reversion score (88) with a large 1d selloff and deep downside vs MA50/MA200, fitting the oversold snapback profile.",
        "symbol": "MLCO_CFD.US",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Very high mean-reversion score (85) driven by an extreme 1d drop while still below key averages, indicating elevated short-horizon rebound potential.",
        "symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Position is newly opened with no new risk/event information provided; avoid overtrading and allow the mean-reversion thesis time to play out.",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Drawdown is modest relative to fixed position size and the position is newly opened; no new information suggests the thesis is broken, so avoid churn.",
        "symbol": "DSY_CFD.FR"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Maintain existing positions to comply with the strategy’s avoid-overtrading constraint (no new risk signals provided) and add up to two new, highest-scoring oversold US mean-reversion candidates at the fixed $3,000 size, staying well within max positions and gross leverage limits."
}

{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "MLCO_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Large 1d selloff (-11.25%) with deep downside vs MA200 (-28.98%) and MA50 (-21.30%) suggests oversold mean-reversion setup",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Very sharp 1d drop (-18.70%) while still below MA50 (-5.65%) and MA200 (-3.28%); high short-term snapback potential",
      "mean_reversion_score": 85
    },
    {
      "symbol": "EXPO_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Down -11.74% on the day and trading below MA50 (-7.07%) and MA200 (-6.42%)—classic short-horizon mean-reversion profile",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VNO_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Moderate 1d decline (-5.99%) with price meaningfully below MA200 (-18.47%) and MA50 (-8.36%)—oversold drift with rebound potential",
      "mean_reversion_score": 75
    },
    {
      "symbol": "J_CFD.US",
      "selection_reason": "Down -11.17% and slightly below key averages (MA200 -4.12%, MA50 -2.31%); supports 2-10 day mean-reversion bounce thesis",
      "mean_reversion_score": 72
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Non-US symbols excluded for US region run",
    "Overbought/extended above moving averages (less attractive for long mean-reversion)",
    "Insufficient oversold signal (small 1d move and/or near moving averages)",
    "Possible liquidity/quality concerns inferred from very low absolute price with no volume data",
    "Earnings/news timing unknown (days_to_next_earnings and sentiment unavailable), so no positive confirmation for avoiding event risk"
  ]
}